Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
827
FXUS66 KSEW 100345
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
845 PM PDT Sat May 9 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal system will clip the area tonight and into Sunday
for increased cloud cover and cooler temperatures. Warming
temperatures and high pressure return to the area early next
week, with Tuesday likely to be the warmest day. It isn`t long
lived as more unsettled weather returns for the second half of
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
High clouds moving across Western Washington this evening as a
weak frontal system nears the area. As it moves through
tomorrow, cooler temperatures in the upper 60s will return under
mostly cloudy skies. High pressure rebounds early next week and
will generally square itself over the NW. Tuesday could see
highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, with the warmest locations
being eastern Grays Harbor County in through south King County.
In these areas, there is greater than a 50% likelihood that
Moderate HeatRisk levels could be achieved. That said, the
models have struggled lately with resolving the extent of the
marine layer influence and if that is to develop and linger, it
could drop a few degrees off the expected highs. &&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cutoff low offshore of the OR/CA border will act to scoot the
high pressure off to the east and bring in more southwesterly
flow aloft. There is still considerable divergence in solutions
via the ensembles regarding the depth of the low and its track. This
will generally be the onset of a return of more unsettled
weather. Zonal flow resumes about midweek onward, and could at
times through the extended forecast bring about some chances for
precipitation (although very light amounts) in the region. By
late next week, highs may struggle to get much warmer than the
low 60s.
21
&&
.AVIATION...
Southwest flow aloft will persist through Sunday afternoon
before becoming more westerly as an upper level ridge progresses
eastward. Conditions remain VFR for all areas this evening,
with satellite showing some mid to high clouds streaming across
western WA associated with a weak frontal system offshore.
Conditions will remain mostly VFR for all terminals tonight into
Sunday, except KHQM on the coast. According to the HREF, KHQM
has a 65-70% chance of ceilings below 1,000 ft moving in by
10z-16z Sunday- though expect conditions to return back to VFR
towards the afternoon hours. Northerly winds tonight between
4-8 kt will become light overnight. The weak front moving
through on Sunday will allow winds to transition to the south
and increase in the afternoon. Winds may gust to 20-25 kt for
terminals along the Strait (KCLM) and the Northern Interior
(KBLI) into the evening hours.
KSEA...Confidence continues to lean towards VFR conditions
persisting at the terminal throughout the TAF period. Probabilities
of cigs below 3,000 ft for Sunday morning is around 10%. N surface
winds 4-8 kt will become light overnight and veer towards the
SW between 14-16z Sunday. Winds will increase to 5-10 kt between
18-21z.
41/14
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to build over the offshore waters
this weekend into next week. The main concern in this period is
westerly winds through the Strait of Juan de Fuca where winds
may reach SCA criteria. The next likelihood of this occuring is
Sunday afternoon and evening. Otherwise, winds will remain light
and primarily out of the north going into next week. A few
ensembles hint a more organized system midweek next week. Seas
4-6 ft with a couple areas potentially seeing 7 ft seas next
week at times.
41
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the
next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as
needed.&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion