Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
521
FXUS66 KSEW 161028
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
228 AM PST Sun Nov 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...A frontal system will slowly move across Western
Washington through Monday for unsettled weather. An upper low
moves eastwards on Tuesday for a brief period of drier weather
late Tuesday into Wednesday. A trough will approach the Pacific
Northwest on Thursday, with another frontal system possible next
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...Widespread low stratus
across Western Washington this morning with light flow and
abundant moisture at the surface. Areas of fog have also
developed, especially in sheltered locations. Light north winds
around Puget Sound will become calm for a few hours this
morning, allowing for the potential of more widespread dense
fog, mainly between 300-900 AM. This will continue to be
monitored for any dense fog headlines.
Otherwise, a weak front will move across the area late today
into Monday for light rain at times. An upper low will also
become cutoff from the elongated trough over the Western US. The
upper low will slowly progress overhead across Western
Washington and southern British Columbia late Monday into early
Tuesday for additional precipitation chances. QPF totals through
Tuesday afternoon look to range from 0.10 to 0.50" for the
lowlands, with the highest values from King CO northwards. Snow
levels around 7000 feet today will lower to 4000 feet late
Monday into Tuesday for light snowfall amounts in higher
elevations. Temperatures will slowly cool a dew degrees each day
through Tuesday, with highs near normal in the low 50s by
Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...A brief period of
drier weather is expected late Tuesday into Wednesday as
transient upper ridging builds into the Pacific Northwest.
Troughing will then approach the west coast Wednesday night into
Thursday. Ensembles suggest the troughing is elongated on
Thursday with the majority of energy steered towards OR/CA.
However, precipitation potential will increase again beginning
Wednesday night. In addition, east winds look to increase near
the Cascade Foothills Wednesday night as well with the incoming
system. Uncertainty increases in ensembles Friday into next
weekend, however the upper level pattern supports more zonal
flow at this time, resulting in a period of potential heavier
precipitation. Temperatures are expected to remain near normal
for much of the week, with highs in the low to mid 50s. JD
&&
.AVIATION...Increasing southwesterly flow aloft as an upper-
trough digs offshore. Light flow in the lower levels through the
afternoon as a stationary front dissipates across western WA.
Mostly IFR/LIFR ceilings into the afternoon as well with brief
spells of transient VFR in between passing clouds. Areas of
visibility less than 1SM under patchy dense fog has been
observed. A weather system will bring another chance of rain
this afternoon as ceilings may improve slightly towards the
evening, with some locations potentially improving to MVFR.
However, latest guidance suggests majority of terminals are
likely to remain IFR/LIFR into Monday morning as well.
KSEA...A mix of IFR/LIFR has been observed so far as dense
patchy fog drifts across the area. Slight improvement this
afternoon/evening to MVFR possible as light rain spreads over
the terminal. MVFR/IFR ceilings are to remain overnight into
Monday. Light winds around 3-5 kt.
McMillian
&&
.MARINE...A surface low will track into Northern Vancouver
Island today into tonight while an associated front weakens and
moves onshore. Here, a westerly push is expected through the
Strait of Juan de Fuca with SCA winds a possibility overnight
into Monday morning. A surface ridge will rebuild across the
waters Monday into Tuesday before shifting east of the area on
Wednesday. A rapidly weakening frontal system will reach the
waters Wednesday night into Thursday with the potential for more
headlines, but mainly over the coastal waters.
Coastal seas will briefly build to 10 feet or higher Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night as a SCA remains for the coastal
zones. Seas will then subside below 10 ft Monday night into
Tuesday. However, 10 ft seas will likely return around midweek.
McMillian
&&
.HYDROLOGY...A weak frontal system will produce non-
hydrologically significant rainfall late today into Tuesday.
Drier conditions will return mid-week. Another system will
bring additional precipitation late Wednesday into Thursday, but
is again not expected to produce rainfall of any significance.
Additional weather systems are possible Friday into next
weekend. 27/JD
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST
Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM PST
Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion