Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
582
FXUS66 KSEW 091055
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
255 AM PST Fri Jan 9 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper ridge will provide a brief period of drier weather
before the next system arrives late Saturday. Moderate to heavy
rain is expected at times Saturday night into Monday night along
with snow levels rising above pass level. Area rivers are
expected to rise with flooding expected on the Skokomish. Drier
conditions are favored to return by the middle of next week as
high pressure aloft rebuilds into the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A weak upper ridge will slide onshore today for a brief trend
toward drier conditions. The ridge axis will move east of the
Cascades tonight and another frontal system will approach the
coast Saturday morning. Rain will spread inland Saturday evening
as a warm front lifts northward toward the area. Snow levels
will rise above all of the passes on Sunday as the warm front
lifts northward and an atmospheric river takes aim at British
Columbia and Western Washington. Heaviest precipitation,
initially, will be along the coast, in the Olympics, and across
the North Cascades.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will continue
into Monday as the axis of heaviest precip is projected to shift
southward slightly. In addition to the precipitation, a period
of breezy to locally windy conditions is expected Sunday night
into Monday. With the heavier precip, there will also be an
elevated landslide risk. Ensembles are in good agreement with a
shift toward drier and rather mild conditions taking hold around
the middle of next week as high amplitude upper ridging takes
up residence along the west coast of the lower 48.
27
&&
.AVIATION...
Upper level ridge centered offshore moving through the area
today into tonight. Ridge axis east of the Cascades by 06z
Saturday. Front moving into the area later Saturday.
Northwesterly flow aloft switching to southwesterly tonight. In
the lower levels, light onshore flow becoming light offshore
flow this evening.
MVFR ceilings this morning with patchy LIFR mainly Kitsap
peninsula. Conditions improving this afternoon. VFR conditions
tonight with just some high clouds. Areas of fog forming after
06z Southwest Interior and south Puget Sound with visibility
below a mile until around 18z Saturday.
KSEA...MVFR ceilings through the morning hours. Stratus layer
scattering out mid afternoon leaving just some high clouds. Fog
in the vicinity of the terminal 12z-18z Saturday. Southerly wind
6 to 10 knots becoming southeast 4 to 8 knots 03z-06z. Felton
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the waters today and tonight will
weaken Saturday as a front moves through the area. Additional
systems will move through the northern portion of the waters
Sunday and Monday. High pressure will rebuild Tuesday.
Small craft advisories for the coastal waters and West Entrance
to the Strait of Juan de Fuca for seas 10 to 12 feet today and
for a combination of southeasterly winds 20 to 25 kt and seas
building to 12 to 17 feet tonight through Saturday into Saturday
night. Small craft advisory winds continuing through Sunday
night before subsiding Monday. Seas slowly subsiding Sunday
through Monday but not dropping to near 10 feet until Tuesday.
Felton
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding is expected through Saturday. Ensemble
precipitation guidance continues to trend up leading to an
increased concern for potential river flooding. The main risk
of river flooding is along the Skokomish River in Mason County,
where the forecast crest is just below moderate flood stage
Monday. Elsewhere, rivers will rise but confidence in rivers
reaching flood levels is less than 30%. The relative risk
appears to be highest for rivers originating from the central
and northern Cascades, where snow levels will rise from around
4000 feet to 7500-8000 feet during the event, bringing rain on
snow into the picture.
This event is likely to be followed by a relatively dry period,
allowing for rivers to recede mid to late next week.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar-
West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion