Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
418
FXUS66 KSEW 062337
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
333 PM PST Tue Jan 6 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will bring steady lowland rain, heavy
mountain snow, and gusty winds through today. Additional frontal
systems through Thursday will bring continued heavy mountain
snowfall at times. An upper ridge will begin to build into the
Pacific Northwest Friday, although a frontal system over the
weekend keeps precipitation potential in the forecast.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Latest satellite imagery shows W WA pretty socked in with clouds as
latest frontal system continues to plod through the area. Radar
showing precip throughout the area, however the strongest/most
consistent echoes still remain largely west of the Sound at the time
of this writing...but can already be seen to be inching along into
the South Sound area. That said, late afternoon and evening will
likely be the start of more persistent rainfall for the Seattle
metro area, just in time for the evening commute. This would put
increasing snowfall over the Cascades as early as this evening and
persisting through the overnight hours. That said, inherited Winter
headlines look good and will remain in place. Speaking of headlines,
winds over much of the area are slowly easing now that the front has
arrived. This has allowed for the wind advisory along the coast to
expire while gusts may hang on in the north interior, including
western Whatcom county and the San Juans. Will continue to evaluate,
but as of this writing, the trend looks good where this headline
should be able to expire on time.
Active weather remains the story tonight as the front looks to get
hung up over the area before starting to fizzle out overnight and
into the early morning hours Wednesday. A secondary impulse reaching
the coast mid-morning however will not allow for much of a break in
precip...if any at all...for the area. This impulse will also
provide a boost to winds, although speeds and gusts are expected to
remain lower than those observed today. Will continue to evaluate
the need for another round of wind headlines, but current solutions
keep speeds below advisory thresholds. As the large scale upper
level trough begins to push eastward Wednesday night minor impulses
along the backside will keep precip going...albeit slowly becoming
more and more scattered at some point Thursday afternoon. As alluded
to above, storm total snowfall for the Cascades has not changed much
from prior solutions, thus will keep inherited Winter Storm Warning
in place and will allow for the Winter Weather Advisory for the
Olympics to run its course. Deterministic and ensemble models all
agree on the influence from an upper level ridge starting to work
its way into the Pac NW Thursday evening, however it is worth noting
that majority of solutions have scattered showers persisting for the
remainder of the short term.
Lowland daytime highs will see a slight warm-up from Wednesday into
Thursday starting from the lower to mid 40s Wednesday increasing a
few degrees to the mid to upper 40s Thursday. Overnight lows will be
similar tonight and Thursday night...mainly in the upper 30s to
lower 40s, although they do take a bit of a hit Wednesday night,
generally in the lower to mid 30s.
18
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Although some lingering precip...especially over the Cascades...will
be possible as Friday begins, there is a good consensus that W WA
will see increasingly drier conditions throughout the day as the
upper ridge shifts further eastward. Consensus starts to fall apart
entering into Saturday. While models agree on keeping the first half
of the day dry, starting to see differing opinions as to how long
this break in the action lasts. Deterministic GFS is the slowest in
moving the ridge out...keeping things dry into Saturday night before
bringing in the next frontal system. But even that system is short-
lived with another ridge behind it to finish out the long term
period. Deterministic Euro aligns better with the majority of
ensemble solutions, bringing in the next frontal system at some
point Saturday afternoon and returning the area to an active weather
pattern with precip in the forecast for the remainder of the long
term. ECMWF does try to hint at a minor ridge for Tuesday, however
this feature does not appear to be strong enough to do much along
the lines of scouring out moisture already in place. NBM does its
best to split the differences, however might be a touch on the
optimistic side, keeping PoPs in the low-end Chance, high-end Slight
Chance categories...as good a solution as any at this point until a
more convincing consensus can emerge.
18
&&
.AVIATION...
Westerly flow aloft as a front continues to pass over western
Washington. A wide array of ceilings this afternoon as rain and
breezy winds continue over most terminals, with mainly MVFR/IFR
conditions being observed. Wind and rain will start to decrease this
evening, which could lead to improvement to VFR at some terminals at
times. Latest guidance suggests still a 15-25% of interior terminals
staying MVFR throughout the evening, with terminals likely seeing a
mix of VFR/MVFR. Regardless, conditions will lower to MVFR Wednesday
morning with another round of showers moving in the area. S/SW winds
this afternoon 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to 25 will decrease late
this afternoon to 8 to 12 knots. Winds look to increase again
Wednesday morning with gusts up to 20 knots possible at times.
KSEA...MVFR conditions with rain showers and vsbys in 3 to 6 statue
miles at times. Conditions should improve later this evening to low
end VFR, but the chance does still remain (25%) that MVFR could
continue through the overnight. Probabilities for MVFR increase well
after 11z as low level moisture consolidates, continuing throughout
Wednesday morning. S/SW winds 13 to 16 knots this afternoon, gusting
upwards to 25 to 30 knots. Winds will gradually subside later this
evening, around 9 to 13 knots and an occasional gust up to 15 kts,
continuing into Wednesday morning.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will remain breezy across the area waters tonight in the wake
of the frontal system that pushed across the waters this afternoon.
A push of westerly winds is likely along the Strait of Juan de Fuca
into Wednesday in its wake. While occasional gusts to 35 kt will be
possible at times across the central Strait, the majority of the
winds look to remain between 20-30 kt at this time.
Another frontal system will move across the area Wednesday into
Thursday and will likely bring another round of small craft
southerlies to the area waters. High pressure will then build in its
wake on Thursday and will persist into Friday, however could see a
weak system move into the region again over the weekend.
Seas hovering between 10-12 ft today will build towards 20-22 ft
Wednesday. Large seas will linger into Thursday, before dropping
back down to 10-12 ft Friday. Seas look to increase to 13-16 ft
again over the weekend as the next system approaches the area waters.
14
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Steady precipitation is becoming more showery this afternoon in the
wake of a frontal system that passed through the region. Liquid
amounts over the Olympics of around 1.5 inches from this system will
allow rivers like the Skokomish to continue to rise through this
evening and potentially come close to Minor Flood Stage. As a
result, a Flood Watch remains in effect for Mason County for the
potential flooding on the Skokomish River.
Snow levels around 3500 feet will fall to 2500 ft tonight into
Wednesday. While additional precipitation is expected Wednesday into
Thursday with another frontal system passing through the region, the
lowering of snow levels and progressive nature of the system will
help mitigate further flooding concerns for the river by Wednesday
morning.
For the remainder of area rivers, no flooding is expected over the
next 7 days.
14
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Thursday for Cascades of
Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and
Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-
Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties.
Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Island County-
Lowlands of Western Whatcom County.
Flood Watch through late Wednesday night for Foothills of the
Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Middle Chehalis
River Valley-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-
Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for
Olympics.
High Surf Advisory from 10 AM Wednesday to 10 AM PST Thursday
for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Grays
Harbor County Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar-
West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST Wednesday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Wednesday for Admiralty
Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PST this evening for Puget
Sound and Hood Canal.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion