Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
689
FXUS66 KSEW 110338
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
838 PM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Near-seasonal temperatures throughout the weekend with
reoccurring spells of morning clouds and afternoon sun.
Upper ridging will build back into the Pacific Northwest early
next week for warmer, dry conditions through much of the
upcoming week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Widespread southwest flow over the region as broad upper-
troughing positions over the NE PAC along with a high center
present over the Four Corners region. Diurnal heating has eroded
marine stratus from this morning however, it`ll redevelop
overnight into early Saturday morning as low-level onshore flow
increase this evening. Min temperatures are forecast to range
between the upper 40s to mid 50s, around average for early July.
As alluded to, expect a grey start to the day on Saturday for
most areas as the marine layer expands across western
Washington. It`ll gradually decrease in coverage into the
afternoon in typical fashion, giving way to scattered mid-high
level cloud coverage. Upper-troughing offshore will progress on
Saturday as well, bringing the return of 30-40% PoPs, mainly in
the North Cascades and the Olympics. The upper-trough will lift
north into BC on Sunday as the threat for mountain showers end.
But, another round of morning clouds is in the offing. Seasonal
temperatures are expected during this time highs in the lower to
upper 70s and overnight lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
41
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A warming trend continues into Monday and Tuesday with southwesterly
flow aloft and relatively high upper level heights. The temperature
forecast has trended higher, now with a 65-85% chance of high
temperatures at or above 80F from Seattle metro southward on Monday,
and more widespread 75-90% odds of highs above 80F over much of the
interior lowlands including the Cascade foothills and valleys on
Tuesday. There remains a range of potential outcomes Wednesday
through late next week resulting a higher degree of uncertainty with
respect to the temperature forecast. Some scenarios could play out
with high temperatures Thursday in the low 90s, while others could
be in the low 70s. Confidence remains better for continued dry
conditions through the entire extended period. The overall message
at this time remains to expect increased risk of Moderate
(orange)HeatRisk through the early part of next week, followed
by a potentially extended period of warm and dry weather.
&&
.AVIATION... Mostly VFR prevails this evening as marine stratus has
all but eroded. Still anticipating that marine stratus will
redevelop overnight into Saturday morning. Areas of MVFR ceilings
are favored with possible IFR particularly along the coast (30-50%
chance for KHQM). Any lingering MVFR/IFR cigs should lift by 18-21z
Saturday. Generally light winds expected with the exception of some
southwesterly afternoon and evening gusts of 15 to 20 knots at KOLM.
KSEA...VFR conditions will continue this evening. The NBM is
indicating a 15-25% chance of MVFR ceilings developing between 09z-
12z Saturday. If they do manifest, a return to VFR by 18z is favored
by current guidance. NW winds early this evening will back towards
the SW by 06z. SW winds into Saturday as well between 5-10 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak frontal system is crossing the waters this evening,
bringing increased low-level onshore flow. As a result, a Small
Craft Advisory is in effect this evening into Saturday morning
for central/eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca. High pressure will
rebuild Sunday into Monday and remain in place into midweek.
Diurnally driven increases in westerlies can be expected in the
Strait of Juan de Fuca each the next several days.
41
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The current onshore pattern will continue through the weekend
which will lead to continued excellent nightly RH recoveries.
30-40% chance of rain showers exist into Saturday, mainly for
the Olympics and northern Cascades but the chance for wetting
rain appears less than 10%. Rainfall amounts during this period
would generally total less than 0.10".
A ridge of high pressure rebuilds into the region Monday and
Tuesday. While the onshore pattern will largely remain in place,
warmer daytime temperatures and clear skies will likely lead to
RH values dipping into the 20-40% percent range, with the
lowest values in the south interior and Cascades Valleys. This
will allow fine fuels to continue to dry with elevated fire
weather conditions. Some modest cooling is slated to arrive by
the middle of next week, but may well be short-lived.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Saturday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion