Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
248
FXUS66 KSEW 100926
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
126 AM PST Tue Feb 10 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and showery conditions will linger across Western
Washington today. A brief dry pattern follows Wednesday into
early Thursday, with near-normal temperatures and morning fog. The
next disturbance arrives by early Friday, bringing a return of
rain and mountain snow, as well as cooler temperatures, this
weekend through early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A few lingering showers remain evident on radar early this
morning, mostly along the coast and over the mountains. Snow
levels finally dipping to around 3000 ft or so, so this could
bring an additional light accumulation to the Cascade passes
(especially Snoqualmie northward) but most likely accumulations
are little if any with the decreasing coverage. Given the
abundant residual low-level moisture and clearing skies and
light wind, fog is likely to form in the South Sound south down
the I-5 corridor through Lewis County. Showers are expected to
end this morning with chances less than 5 percent by mid
morning.
The dry trend with clearing skies continued Wednesday with
morning fog and low clouds likely a bit more extensive in
coverage as weak high pressure builds overhead. Overnight lows
drop down to near 30 with the clear skies and light winds, and a
few degrees warmer closer to the city centers. Otherwise,
morning fog/low clouds giving way to afternoon sunshine and
temperatures around 50 should yield rather pleasant conditions
Wednesday. Little change into early Thursday, but the weak high
pressure moves on and the next disturbance approaches the
coastline by Thursday afternoon spreading another round of
cloudy conditions and precipitation into Western Washington.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement with the next system
moving into the region Thursday, though some variability in
just how strong this frontal system is. The common thread among
the majority of ensemble guidance at this point is the message
of a return of mountain snow, lowland rain as the pattern
remains unsettled. Fairly strong agreement that the upper trough
will remain positioned over the region through the weekend,
maintaining additional disturbances moving through. While a
single time period doesn`t appear particularly heavy for snow in
the mountains, the persistent rounds of showers will maintain
winter conditions over the Cascade passes even if amounts remain
short of advisory thresholds for any particular storm.
The ensemble mean - and in fact the vast majority of members -
take the upper trough down into the northern portion of California
by Sunday, opening the door for colder conditions into the region.
As such, there is the potential for any showers during this time
(especially during the cooler overnight time periods Sunday and
Monday mornings) to bring some snow mixed in with rain down to
the lower elevations. However, given the overall precipitation
chances and amounts (along with temperatures near the surface),
it remains very unlikely (less than 5%) for any accumulations in
the lowlands through at least the start of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Showers continue to persist across the Olympic Peninsula early this
morning, but should continue to taper off by 18Z. Elsewhere, a
mid-level cloud deck persist across much of the area, with some
areas seeing MVFR ceilings, particularly across the northern
half of the region. In the southwest interior, terminals are
seeing areas of localized fog. These conditions are expected to
persist this morning as clouds lift and scatter to the north and
fog scatters in the south. VFR conditions will prevail through
much of the rest of the day today. There is a strong signal for
the development of low clouds and fog across much of the Puget
Sound area, potentially as early as 06Z, but in particular from
09-12Z Wednesday morning. Fog will slowly lift and scatter late
Wednesday morning into the early afternoon through the south
Sound.
Southerly winds 5-10 kt early this morning will ease and become
light by around 18Z Tue will flip around to northerly and increase
back to around 5-10 kt by 00Z Wed. North winds continue overnight
and into Wednesday morning.
KSEA...VFR conditions early this morning with a broken mid-layer
deck. This should help limit fog potential this morning, but fog in
the vicinity of the terminal cannot be ruled out for a brief period
(10-15% prob. btwn 13-17Z). VFR conditions continue through much of
the remainder of the period. Higher probabilities of low clouds
developing after 09-12Z Wed (up to 35%). South winds 5-8 kt will
decrease this morning, flip to N after 18Z Tue, and increase to 8-12
kt this evening and continue overnight.
62
&&
.MARINE...
Broad high pressure will begin to build across the NE Pacific today,
allowing for conditions to dry out and winds to remain light over
the area waters through Thursday. A relatively weak front will move
across the area waters late Thursday into Friday, with additional
systems possible through this weekend and into early next week.
Periods of small craft winds may be possible during this weekend but
confidence in currently low at this point.
Seas 8 to 9 ft this morning will continue to ease to 5 to 6 ft by
Wednesday. Seas look to rise Thursday into Thursday night,
potentially as high as around 15-17 ft as long period swell arrives
to the area. Additional systems look to keep seas in the 10-13 ft
range Friday into early next week.
62
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
River flooding is not expected during the next seven days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion