Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
146
FXUS66 KSEW 240507
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1007 PM PDT Sat May 23 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue tonight through Sunday, with
cool/cloudy mornings giving way to afternoon sun. A low
pressure system on Monday will bring widespread rain and
breezy conditions, with a slight chance of thunderstorms
in the afternoon. Unsettled conditions continue into Tuesday,
with drier and warmer weather possible by midweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Stratus will return tonight, but a similar pattern to today is
expected on Sunday with stratus retreating through the day,
giving way to afternoon sun. Highs again in the upper 60s and
low 70s given a slightly earlier clearing time forecast.
The weather will become active on Monday as a low pressure
system approaches and moves across the area. Rain will begin to
arrive at the coast early Monday morning, slowly spreading into
the interior though the morning. Winds will also begin to
increase, peaking late morning/early afternoon as the front
moves through. Gusts for most will likely be in the 20 to 30
mph, but locations along the coast and through the north
interior may see gusts up to 35 to 40 mph. These winds will not
produce much in the way of widespread impacts, but
unsecured/temporary items outside such as tends may be impacted.
Rain will devolve into more scattered showers behind the front
and persist through the afternoon and evening. With the upper
level low not far to the west, that will give some upper level
support for a few isolated to scattered (15-20%) thunderstorms
in the afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler, down into
the upper 50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms look to
continue into Tuesday as the system continues to depart. Chances
for thunder are again in the 15-20% Tuesday afternoon, through
more so over the interior areas than along the coast. On the
coast, however, waves will increase late Monday into Tuesday,
which may bring high surf conditions with waves reaching up to
15 ft before slowly easing throughout the day.
The upper level trough continues to dig into the southwestern
U.S., which will allow for warmer and drier conditions to return
to the area, with highs climbing back into upper 60s and low
70s. Models are showing the potential for another trough to move
into the area late next week, which may bring the potential for
slightly cooler weather and chances for scattered showers. Long
period swell arriving to the coast on Thursday may pose a threat
to beachgoers with significant wave runup possible.
62
&&
.AVIATION...
Onshore flow will continue in the low levels through the TAF
period, with westerly flow aloft developing into Sunday.
Another round of stratus is likely to push into the interior
between around 12z Sunday, with MVFR ceilings expected across
most of the area. Guidance favors an earlier lifting to VFR
Sunday morning, closer to 18-20z. Generally light winds for most
of the area, though gusty west winds near the eastern Strait of
Juan de Fuca spreading and gusty from KBLI (southerly) through
around KPAE (northwesterly). Expect a return to predominantly
southerly winds early Sunday southerly winds at KBLI and though
will remain light at 6 kt or less, before shifting back to the
south late tonight into early Sunday.
KSEA...VFR ceilings reforming after a short period of scattering
out late this evening. Winds have been a bit variable, and while
there`s still a few hour window for perhaps a switch to north
winds this evening, expect that west/southwest will win out.
Expect the low VFR ceiling to dip back toward MVFR by 09z and
remain in place through the morning. Probabilistic guidance
suggests a 30-40% chance of MVFR ceilings which experience
suggests correlates to a better than 50/50 likelihood so will
continue to carry this in the TAF. Southerly winds and VFR
ceilings through the day Sunday with scattering and increasing
winds to 8-9 kt in the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Surface high pressure well offshore will result in
continued onshore flow through the weekend. A strong westerly
push is expected through the Strait of Juan de Fuca this
evening, for which a Gale Warning will remain in effect for the
central and eastern portions of the Strait through late tonight.
This will also push into Admiralty Inlet, for which a Small
Craft Advisory will continue through late tonight as well. Winds
will ease Sunday as high pressure weakens. A low pressure system
will approach and move through the area waters on Monday which
will bring stronger southwesterly winds. Winds will increase to
SCA level early Monday morning through the coastal waters, later
in the morning through Puget Sound up into the East Strait and
Northern Inland Waters. Winds will switch to more
west/southwesterly following the frontal passage mid-day, but
winds will not ease until late in the day. High pressure then
rebuilds Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing back the previous
regime of Small Craft Advisory winds and steep seas in the
outermost coastal waters.
Seas remain steep, especially through the outer coastal waters,
with waves 6-10 ft with a dominant period of around 8 seconds.
Seas will ease to around 5-7 ft Sunday before waves increase on
Monday as the low moves through the area. Waves peak Tuesday
morning at around 14 to 16 ft before slowly easing throughout
the day to around 8 to 10 ft. Long period swell looks to arrive
Thursday, which pushes seas up to 8 to 12 ft.
62
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the
next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as
needed.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Sunday for Central U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait
Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for Admiralty Inlet.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
To 60 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion