Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
550
FXUS66 KSEW 071650
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
950 AM PDT Wed Oct 7 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Zonal flow aloft continues as high pressure remains parked over
the Great Basin. Morning fog and stratus will continue likely
until Thursday morning, where it will become less widespread.
Sunny afternoons are expected, with seasonably warm temperatures.
The next chance for rain appears to be Friday as a weak front
arrives.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fog and low stratus continues this morning across portions of
Western Washington. There is going to be a light offshore gradient
today, which should lend itself to a slightly earlier dissipation
time than the previous few days. This offshore gradient will also
cause a minor dip in the relative humidity this afternoon in the
Cascades and valleys. Today`s highs will be in the upper 60s,
climbing to the low 70s on Thursday.
The system moving in on Friday will be weak, and the expected QPF is
minimal around a few hundredths of an inch across the Cascades and
northern portions of Puget Sound. While the precipitation won`t last
very long, the pattern change will usher in cooler temperatures,
with highs on Friday knocked back down to the low 60s. Snow levels
drop to around 5000 ft late Friday night, so the higher terrain
particularly in the North Cascades may see a dusting of snow. Expect
breezy winds along the coast, Strait of Juan de Fuca and waterfront
areas of Puget Sound on Friday.
21
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Overnight lows will be decreasing over the weekend as the
pattern becomes focused on low pressure over the NW. Saturday
morning lows will be in the upper 30s across the Cascade passes,
and low 40s in the foothills. The lows decrease a few degrees
more come Sunday morning. Stay tuned to the forecast as it
relates to frost and freeze potential for agricultural concerns
and sensitive vegetation.
Cooler temperatures look to continue into early next week as low
pressure churns in the Gulf of Alaska. Some of the models depict
another chance at rain on Tuesday into Wednesday, but the
ensembles are mixed on exact placement of the low and resultant
weather systems.
21
&&
.AVIATION...
LIFR/IFR conditions continue this morning across the majority of
terminals. Visibility has improved this morning due to increased NE
winds across most terminals. However, terminals such as BLI and PAE
continue to see visibility at 1/4SM or less. Slow improvement
expected throughout the morning, with VFR conditions expected by
the afternoon after 18Z-20Z. Northerly surface winds 5-8 kt
today. Guidance hints at IFR/LIFR fog and ceilings returning
Thursday morning.
KSEA...LIFR ceilings continue this morning. Ceilings will be slow to
lift this morning. Expecting to see ceilings slowly lift around 18Z
and scatter out by 20Z. Northeasterly winds have remained elevated
around 7-10 kt this morning and are expected to hinder any dense fog
from developing. Northeasterly winds will transition more
northwesterly this afternoon at 7-10 kt, then transition
northeasterly again in the evening at 5 kt or less. LIFR ceilings
are possible (30-50% chance) Thursday morning.
29
&&
.MARINE...
Fog remains the primary marine impact over the area waters
early this morning. Visibility has improved over the coastal
waters, so have cancelled the advisory for these zones. Expect
areas of fog to continue to reduce visibilities down to 1NM or
less through the morning, so the advisory remains in place for
much of the Salish Sea from the north inland waters and
Admiralty Inlet south through Puget Sound and Hood Canal zones
through noon. Visibilities will then improve as fog slowly lifts
and scatters into this afternoon.
High pressure will remain situated over the coastal waters the
next few days, while a thermal trough builds northward along the
Washington coast today. This will continue to promote northerly
winds across the coastal waters into Thursday. Northerly winds
may become gusty to 25 kt at times across the inner and outer
coastal waters off of Grays Harbor this afternoon and again
Thursday afternoon, but expect the stronger, more sustained
winds to generally remain south of the area. Onshore flow will
return by Thursday evening, with guidance indicating a 30-50%
chance of westerly winds exceeding small craft strength along
the central and eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca. A frontal system
will then move into the area waters Friday into Saturday, bringing
the likelihood (>80% chance) of small craft strength winds to
the coastal waters and the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Seas will
build in the system`s wake, with latest GEFS probabilities
indicating a 60-80% chance of seas exceeding 10 ft across the
coastal waters by Friday night.
Winds will ease and seas will gradually subside through the day
on Saturday as the system exits the area. High pressure will
then build back into the coastal waters by Sunday, while a
thermal trough expands northward along the coast again.
14/12
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Dense Fog Advisory until noon PDT today for Admiralty Inlet-
East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern
Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound
and Hood Canal.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion