Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
957
FXUS66 KSEW 160417
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
815 PM PST Thu Jan 15 2026
.UPDATE...
An odd mix of clear skies/high clouds over much of western
Washington this evening while patches of low stratus linger over
portions of the coast, all of the south Sound and some spots north
of Seattle. Continued offshore flow may be enough to offset any
further stratus or fog development, but this will need to be
monitored overnight. Inherited forecast on track.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong and stable ridge will remain in place throughout the
rest of the week and into early next week. Periods of stratus
and patchy fog will occur through then. East to northeast flow
will strengthen into Friday, helping to erode some of the
stratus that has been around for the last several days.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The ridge will remain in place throughout the short term. A
passing disturbance to the east will kick up the ENE winds
overnight into Friday morning, but will remain below any sort of
advisory thresholds. Gusts between 15 to 20 mph will be possible
by Friday morning. Given the warmer and drier nature of these
winds, it will help to keep most of the stratus out of eastern
Puget Sound, though indications as of now are that patches of
stratus and fog may still linger through Olympia and as far
north as Tacoma into Friday morning.
The ridge will shift slightly more overhead over the weekend,
favoring clearer skies and less of a stratus intrusion. With
that, temperatures will be somewhat cooler, with highs in the
low 50s and lows dipping into the mid 30s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The extended forecast also remains largely dry and still
influenced by the ridge pattern. Winds look to remain light and
at times, offshore. Some light QPF is finally in the grids on
Thursday of next week, but even now, that comes with little
certainty.
21
&&
.AVIATION...
An upper level ridge pattern will remain in place through Friday
with light N/NE flow. MVFR conditions persist over the south Sound
while generally VFR elsewhere given generally clear skies. Majority
of obs sites still showing offshore low-level flow, and cannot help
but wonder if that may be enough to offset any further fog or
stratus development. However, both the lingering stratus already
mentioned as well as other isolated patches of MVFR to IFR
conditions do keep the fog threat in place. Current TAFs geared more
toward stratus development and given the pattern of the past few
overnight/early morning periods, feel that may be the best way to go
unless conditions continue to improve toward the 06Z issuance. Then
may need to factor in this reality. Helping to maintain persistence
forecasting though is that model data continues to advertise fog and
low vis. So again, may not deviate too much, if at all, from
inherited forecast.
KSEA...VFR conditions in place, but with stratus lingering to both
the north and south of the terminal...cannot help but wonder if
skies will fill in. This is the main forecast issue overnight.
Probability for fog Friday morning remains at 20-30%, but is is
conditional on cloud coverage, if any, and winds easing enough by
Friday morning for formation. At the time of this writing, winds
remain up around 8-12 kts and models do not really bring them down
until 24 hours from now. Forecast has lower levels filling in,
resulting in MVFR to IFR conditions developing overnight before
clearing once more Friday afternoon.
18/HPR
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure offshore remains with a thermal trough along
the coast keeping the flow offshore. Breezy east wind gusts up to 25
kt will be possible in the west/central Strait of Juan de Fuca and
the northern inner coastal zones (where a small craft advisory
continues). Few gusts to 20 kt are possible in the waters off of
Ocean Shores. Otherwise, no significant winds are expected after
Friday through Wednesday. Seas will remain at 4-6 ft today through
Wednesday.
HPR
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding is expected over the next 7 days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Friday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion