Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
553
FXUS66 KSEW 070424
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
824 PM PST Fri Nov 6 2026
.UPDATE...
We`re post-frontal across western WA this evening as the
front that brought widespread rainfall and gusty winds has
since crossed the Cascades. In its wake, showers are lingering
given recent KATX/KLGX scans but latest hi-res modeled
reflectivity has conditions drying out as the night progresses -
indicative of building transient 500 mb ridging overhead.
Overnight lows are to bottom into the 40s. A High Wind Watch
remains in place along the coast from Saturday afternoon through
Saturday night as the next disturbance looms well offshore. The
previous discussion remains below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system continues to move east into the
Cascades into tonight. A warm front will boost temperatures as
it moves northwards Saturday for brief dry conditions. A
potent cold front brings rain and gusty winds Saturday night
into Sunday. The active pattern continues at times into next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
A front continues
to slowly slide southeast this afternoon, leading to lingering
steadier rain across the southern tier of western Washington.
South winds are also slowly tapering off. Peak wind gusts over
the last 12 hours generally reached 40 to 60 MPH along the
coast, and from Admiralty Inlet northwards. The front will
progress east of the Cascades into tonight, resulting in
generally drier conditions and lighter winds. A warm front then
lifts northwards into Saturday. Although the majority of western
Washington will be dry into the afternoon, rain may continue at
times along the western Olympic Peninsula. Temperatures will
peak in the 60s on Saturday as well in the warm sector.
A potent cold front progresses eastwards Saturday evening into
Saturday night across W WA. This will bring a period of steadier
rainfall, with rain rates briefly reaching 0.15-0.25" per hour
along the front. The more impactful aspect to this system will be
the stronger southerly winds associated with the front. Latest
REFS guidance suggests a 50-75% chance of gusts exceeding 58 MPH
later Saturday (High Wind Warning threshold), with a High Wind
Watch remaining in effect. Additional wind headlines may be
needed elsewhere with gusts ranging 30 to 45 MPH for most areas
Saturday PM into early Sunday. Due to continued foliage on the
trees for many locations, localized power outages will be
possible. Furthermore, clogged storm drains may occur when the
period of gusty winds overlaps with steadier rain Saturday
evening. Give yourself extra time if traveling Saturday evening.
Steadier rain transitions to periodic showers on Sunday, with
the majority of the QPF focused on the North Cascades and
Olympics. Snow levels around 7500 feet through Saturday night
fall to near 4500 feet on Sunday for high elevation mountain
snowfall. By Sunday, the primary concern shifts to high surf
conditions along the coast. Seas build to 20 to 28 feet on
Sunday, resulting in large breaking waves along the coast. A
High Surf Advisory has been issued, and will need to monitor the
need for a High Surf Warning over the next day as periods
approach 15 to 17 seconds. Caution should be used when in or
near the water, especially those who will be participating in
razor clam digging. High temperatures cool into the 50s by
Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A brief shortwave ridge
builds over the Pacific Northwest Sunday night into Monday for
drier conditions. The next warm front quickly approaches Monday
afternoon for additional rain and locally breezy conditions
late Monday through Monday night. Ensembles suggest a steady
plume of moisture then becomes focused over Vancouver Island and
Western Washington on Tuesday for additional rainfall, warmer
temperatures, and breezy conditions. At this time the heaviest
QPF amounts are focused over the Olympics and North Cascades.
Uncertainty increases on Wednesday as ridging builds over the
interior Rockies with troughing offshore. This will continue to
result in continued warmer temperatures, with the highest
probability for rainfall over the Olympics. More widespread
rainfall chances return Thursday into late week. JD
&&
.AVIATION...
Mixed bag of flight conditions across western Washington this
evening, with some inland terminals seeing ceilings lifting to low
end VFR and other terminals in IFR low clouds as rain showers
continue to move east. Ceilings should gradually improve later this
evening as rain pushes into Eastern Washington to low-end VFR for
the majority of terminals. However, terminals along the coast,
Kitsap Peninsula, and southern interior may struggle to improve and
may not see improvement until Saturday afternoon. Breezy southerly
winds possible through this evening with gusts 20-25 kt possible.
Winds will ease tonight for light to calm winds in the interior.
A strong frontal system will impact Western Washington starting
Saturday afternoon. While the impacts to the interior are expected
to arrive after the 00Z TAF issuance, impacts will start to be felt
along the coast in the afternoon as early as 21Z. Southwesterly
winds will increase after 21Z and will approach gusts of 35-40 kt
towards Sun 00Z, with rain reaching the coast after Sun 01Z.
29
KSEA...VFR conditions expected to prevail through much of Saturday
before a strong weather system arrives. Breezy winds 10-13 kt with
gusts up to 25 kt throughout tonight. Winds will ease overnight to 3-
5 kt. A strong frontal system will bring gusty winds to the terminal
after Sun 02Z with sustained speeds of 12-15 kt and gusts 30-35 kt.
Rain looks to arrive after Sun 04Z.
&&
.MARINE...
An active marine pattern will continue into next week as a series of
frontal systems impact area waters. A frontal system earlier today
has brought elevated seas and winds. Seas will remain elevated above
10 feet and a Small Craft Advisory will follow once gale-force winds
subside for the coastal waters and West Strait.
A stronger frontal system is expected Saturday afternoon into Sunday
morning. This system will bring a plethora of hazards to area
waters, including elevated seas and winds. With high-res guidance
continuing to indicate a 70% chance or higher of seeing storm-force
winds over the coastal waters, the Storm Watch has been upgraded to
a Storm Warning. Gale Watches remain in effect for the interior
waters. Seas are expected to build over 20 feet late Saturday night
into Sunday, with seas building towards 28 feet in the outer coastal
waters. Seas will gradually decrease towards Sunday night into
Monday, but will remain above 10 feet.
Weak high pressure will briefly build over the waters on Monday.
However, the next frontal system arrives in the evening, followed by
multiple systems that will pose additional marine hazards to area
waters.
29
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
River flooding is not expected through the next
seven days. However, multiple weather systems will bring
steadier rainfall at times today, late Saturday into Sunday, and
again late Monday into midweek. While current forecasts are not
expected to cause flooding, this will begin to saturate soils
and raise base flows that could bring a concern with subsequent
storms systems, particularly by late next week.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...High Wind Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
night for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington
Coast.
High Surf Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday for Grays
Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor
Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Watch from Saturday morning through Sunday morning for
Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until midnight PST tonight for Central
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon
for Admiralty Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The
San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PST this evening for Puget
Sound and Hood Canal.
Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for
Puget Sound and Hood Canal.
Storm Warning from 10 AM Saturday to 10 AM PST Sunday for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion