Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
747
FXUS66 KSEW 120308
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
700 PM PST Thu Dec 11 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Rainfall coverage and intensity is tapering down
but significant river flooding impacts will continue. High
pressure brings mainly dry weather into Saturday. Wet and
unsettled conditions are favored to continue into much of next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Bands of showers still present on latest radar imagery, one over the
northern third of the CWA mainly impacting Whatcom, Skagit and
northern Snohomish counties and another over Jefferson, Grays
Harbor, Mason, northern Thurston and Pierce counties. Activity
within each band is generally light, although isolated patches of
moderate rainfall are possible /but short lived/. Inherited forecast
remains on track, showing that as the upper level ridge over the
eastern Pacific continues to build that it will limit the amount of
moisture coming into the area over the short term, but does not
remove it completely. As such, the risk for showers here and there
will continue into the weekend. Fortunately, this light activity
should not impact local flooding and the pattern overall will allow
waters to gradually recede.
18
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
From Previous Discussion...Another wet pattern is forecast starting
Sunday and stretching into Monday as moist S/SW flow sets up again
over western WA. Snow levels are high at 7,000-8,000 feet meaning
more rain in the mountains with the possibility of renewed or
prolonged flooding depending on the river. Broad troughing keeps the
weather active moving toward midweek with the focus then turning
toward heavy mountain snow. Snow levels are forecast to lower to
around 2,500-4,000 feet with accumulating snow at all mountain
passes. More rain and mountain snow is forecast late in the week. 33
&&
.AVIATION...
Flow is becoming light northwest aloft as an atmospheric
river system moves out of the region. Ceilings are a mix of MVFR and
VFR with overcast decks (with a couple spots still reporting IFR).
Winds this afternoon vary between SE to NE at 4-6 kt, and will
become calm to light southerly (less than 5 kt) overnight. A few
showers will linger in the northern and Cascade terminals, otherwise
a chance of showers will remain on the coastal terminals Friday.
Ceilings will lower down to IFR (with pockets of LIFR) Friday
morning with improvements to MVFR in the afternoon. Some mist is
possible with visibilities down to 3-6 mi (a few south interior and
coastal terminals may see visibilities less than 2 mi). Winds Friday
are out of the SW 4-8 kt.
KSEA...Mix of MVFR/low VFR ceilings through the afternoon and
evening. Ceilings are expected to drop to IFR after 14Z with a lower
chance of LIFR conditions. Improvement to MVFR is expect after 21Z
Friday afternoon. Few vicinity showers will taper back through
tonight. Winds NE 4-8 kt will decrease and become light and variable
from roughly 05Z through 08Z as they become calm. Will increase
again out of the SW 4-8 kt late Friday morning through the afternoon.
HPR
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front will move out of the waters today, with
higher pressure building in behind the system. A few showers will
linger post-front in the interior waters through tonight, and a
slight chance for showers remains in the coast Friday and Saturday.
Small craft advisories continue for seas in the coastal waters
through tonight (8-11 ft). They will drop to 4-6 ft Friday and
increase to 6-8 ft Sunday. The next system with approach the waters
Sunday into Monday, with another system to follow towards the middle
of the week. There is a medium chance of seeing wind gusts to gale
force Monday in the coastal waters and Strait of Juan de Fuca (with
a high chance of small craft gusts in remaining interior waters).
The gusty winds will likely continue through Wednesday. Seas will
also increase up to 14 to 17 ft Monday, then dropping to 11 to 14 ft
Tuesday through midweek.
HPR
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
While some area rivers have crested, particularly rivers in the
Olympic Peninsula basins, other rivers continue to rise to
significant or record-breaking levels, especially over the western
Cascades. Some rivers that are slower to respond, including the
Nooksack, Skagit, and Snohomish, will take a few more days to fully
crest and lower below flood stage.
* Numerous River Flood Warnings remain in effect across western
Washington, with varying times and flood levels.
* A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for a potential levee
failure of the Skagit River below Sedro-Wooley to the mouth of
the Skagit River through late Friday.
* A Flood Watch remains in effect through Friday across all of
western Washington.
With very wet antecedent soil conditions, the landslide threat
across the region has increased with this system, and several
landslides and mudslides have already occurred in steep terrain
across western Washington. Potential has also increased for
debris flows over area burn scars, which continue to be
monitored.
While the threat of urban flooding has decreased, the threat of
small stream flooding, as well as for areas with poor drainage,
continues to pose a risk of localized nuisance flooding and
ponding on roadways. Low water crossings may become impacted or
impassable.
The latest river observations and forecasts can be found at
water.noaa.gov.
33/15
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Flood Watch through Friday afternoon for Cascades of Pierce
and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and Northern
King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-Cascades
of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-City of Seattle-Downtown
Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County-Eastern
Strait of Juan de Fuca-Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of
Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and
Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish
and Northern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of
Thurston and Lewis Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the
North Cascades-Foothills of the Western and Southern
Olympic Peninsula-Grays Harbor County Coast-Island County-
Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River
Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-
Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of
Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-
Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River
Valley-Northern Hood Canal-Northern Washington Coast-
Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Port Townsend
Area-San Juan County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett
Area-Southern Hood Canal-Western Strait of Juan de Fuca-
Willapa and Black Hills.
Flash Flood Watch through late Friday night for Lowlands of
Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion