Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
495
FXUS66 KSEW 302213
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
313 PM PDT Sun Aug 30 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper-ridge looks to remain in place to start the week
before a well-organized system arrives on Wednesday and lead
into Thursday with the potential for widespread rainfall gusty
winds. This disturbance will remain in the vicinity through the
weekend keeping conditions cool and unsettled.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Satellite imagery shows a mix of fair weather cumulus and mid-
high clouds across western WA so far this afternoon. Otherwise,
conditions are dry and to remain that way as we start the new
week. An upper-level ridge is building over the region and
remain in place into Monday. For tonight, areas of fog and low
clouds are slated to develop. Overnight lows are forecast to
bottom out in the mid 40s to mid 50s.
As mentioned, dry day on Monday with upper-ridge axis directly
overhead in response to an upper-trough digging offshore. Monday
may likely be the warmest day of the week as temperatures top
out near average. Highs for the interior are to range between
the lower 70s to lower 80s. Coastal areas firmly in the 60s. The
pattern will begin to turn active on Tuesday as the upper-low
associated with the aforementioned upper-trough tacks inland,
increasing shower activity across the area. The activity will
maintain overnight. Low temperatures are to bottom out in the
lower to mid 50s from max temps of 60s and 70s earlier in the
day.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Widespread precipitation and gusty winds are favored on
Wednesday and Thursday as a well-organized disturbance remains
on track to enter the region. NBM 24-hour probabilities of
rainfall ending Thursday morning over an 1.00" ranges between
15-30% across the interior while the coast and Olympics have
75-95%. More QPF expected to fall throughout the remainder of
the day on Thursday. Although there is uncertainty, the upper-
trough may maintain over the region through Sunday. Cool and
unsettled conditions trending into the weekend as temperatures
measure well-below normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
West to northwest winds continue aloft with brief upper level
ridging over the area. Clouds have lifted to VFR area wide and
expect ceilings to continue to slowly rise through the evening.
High clouds will continue to remain overhead overnight. The biggest
forecast question will be if patchy fog/low stratus will be able to
develop early Monday morning. High clouds should limit its extent,
put areas of fog cannot be ruled out at the most prone places
including HQM, PWT, OLM, and PAE.
Probabilities remain low at LIFR conditions (10-20%). VFR conditions
then continue into tomorrow with high clouds.
KSEA...VFR conditions this afternoon will continue through the TAF
period. High clouds will continue to stream overhead tonight. Fog
development is uncertain (around 10% chc), but is more likely to
remain outside of the terminal. Variable to SW winds around 5 kt
will transition to N this evening and persist overnight into Monday.
62
&&
.MARINE...
Winds fairly light today as the coastal waters of Washington remain
in-between systems. High pressure will briefly nose in on Monday for
increasing northwesterly winds. Winds will start to increase once
again late Tuesday as a frontal system approaches from the north.
The system, which has been delayed slightly in more recent runs,
will move through through the middle and latter half of the day with
the strongest winds then. The coastal waters (60-80% chc) and the
eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca (50-60% chc) will be the most likely
places to see gale force gusts, with Small Craft Advisory winds
likely elsewhere.
Winds will slowly ease Wednesday night into Thursday as the system
moves to the south and weakens.
Seas remain around 3-6 ft until Wednesday, rising up to around 8-11
ft then as the system moves through. 62
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A brief warming and drying trend will occur Monday into Tuesday
ahead of the next weather system. Relative humidity minimums in
the central and southern Washington Cascades will decrease to
around 30 percent tomorrow afternoon. Finer, flashier fuels will
be more apt to respond to the dip in RH. More clouds arrive
ahead of the stronger system for only partly sunny skies on
Tuesday. By late Tuesday night into Wednesday, the stronger
system arrives for widespread rain, windy conditions, and slight
chances for thunderstorms.
21
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion