714
FXUS66 KSEW 050430
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
830 PM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
.UPDATE...
A front is currently working its way throughout the region this
evening as light rainfall spreads across western WA. Steadier
rainfall will break into the showers overnight before conditions
trend drier into Thursday morning. Precip amounts are not
expected to be impactful with less than 0.25" expected for the
interior lowlands and 0.25-0.50" for coastal areas. Overnight
lows are to range throughout the 40s. The previous discussion is
below along with an updated marine/aviation section.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal system moves across the area through
tonight. A stronger system arrives Friday bringing steadier rain
and locally gusty winds. Warm front moves northwards on Saturday
with an associated cold front bringing another round of rain and
gusty winds late Saturday into Sunday. A brief break early
Monday before additional systems arrive into midweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A front is approaching the coast this afternoon with increasing
mid and high clouds over western Washington. The front moves
onshore late this afternoon and moves into Puget Sound this
evening into tonight. A few hours of steadier rain is expected
with this system. In addition, south winds will peak around 15
to 30 MPH along the immediate coast and Whidbey Island region
this evening. Otherwise, this will be a weaker system with
rainfall amounts up to 0.15" for most of Puget Sound, and
0.25-0.5" along the coast. Temperatures peak in the 50s today.
There will be a break in the precipitation on Thursday, with
even a mix of clouds and sunshine. However, the break will be
relatively short as the next frontal system approaches the
region Thursday night with increasing rain early Friday.
Steadier rain continues on Friday for most areas, with the
heaviest QPF amounts focused in the Cascades and Olympic
Peninsula. South winds also increase early Friday. Winds are
expected to be strongest along the northern coast and from
Whidbey Island northwards. NBM probabilities for gusts over 40
MPH range 50-90% for the majority of these areas, with higher
probabilities on the REFS. Will need to monitor the potential
for any Wind Advisory in these aforementioned regions on
Friday. Winds elsewhere will be locally breezy, with gusts
peaking between 20 to 30 MPH, especially near the water. The
front weakens Friday night, but a warm front lifts northwards
overnight, resulting in continued rain at times. Highs will
reach the 50s again Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The majority of western Washington will be positioned in the
warm sector on Saturday as the warm front lifts into BC during
the morning. Most areas are expected to remain drier by Saturday
afternoon, with exception being the Olympic Peninsula and near
the BC border where there remains lingering precip potential.
Otherwise, highs will be warmer on Saturday, peaking in the 60s
for most areas.
A cold front progresses eastward Saturday night into Sunday
bringing additional steadier rain and gusty winds. The bulk of
the precip will be Saturday night, with precipitation more
confined to the Cascades by Sunday afternoon, other than a few
lingering showers. Another round of breezy south winds Saturday
night with the front, with the strongest winds again along the
coast and Whidbey Island northwards. However, winds will likely
be a bit stronger elsewhere with this front compared to Friday,
and thus more widespread gusts of 20 to 35 MPH may occur. In
addition, seas build to near 20 ft along the immediate coast on
Sunday, and will monitor for high surf conditions. Snow levels
initially around 8000 feet Saturday fall towards 4000-5000 feet
by later Sunday for higher elevation snow in the Cascades and
Olympics. A brief period of drier weather then arrives Sunday
night into Monday.
Uncertainty increases in ensembles later Monday into midweek.
However, there is potential for a longer duration rain event
during this period. Mean of ECMWF/CMC ensembles focus the
moisture plume towards western Washington, with GEFS focused
more into British Columbia. This will be something to monitor
over the next few days with additional rain, winds, and
increased waves likely at times next week. JD
&&
.AVIATION...
Generally VFR this evening with areas of MVFR/IFR as rain showers
continue to push inland with a cold frontal passage. Ceilings are
expected to continue to lower this evening as heavier rain showers
move inland, with a chance (30-35%) of IFR conditions over the
Kitsap Peninsula and south of the Puget Sound. By early Thursday
morning, the rain will have pushed east of the Cascades with MVFR
ceilings expected to stick around across the region through much of
Thursday morning. Models suggest VFR conditions returning by
Thursday afternoon. Breezy south to southwest winds this evening
from Puget Sound to the northern interior generally 5-12 kt, with
gusts up to 20 kt possible between 04z-09z as the frontal system
moves through the area.
KSEA...VFR this evening, with heavier showers expected this evening
that will likely bring MVFR ceilings. While showers are expected to
move east after midnight, MVFR ceilings are favored to hang on
through Thursday morning with a slight chance (15%) for brief IFR
ceilings between 14z-19z. Improvement to VFR is expected by 20z.
Surface winds will generally stay south to southwest, with briefly
breezy winds up to 18 kt between 06z-10z with the frontal passage.
29/15
&&
.MARINE...
An active marine pattern will continue into next week with multiple
weather systems expected to move over area waters. Increased
south/southwesterly winds over the coastal waters will continue to
ease this evening as a frontal system moves eastward. Winds expected
to also increase across the interior waters with the passage of the
front, with small craft conditions continuing for portions of the
Strait of Juan de Fuca and Admiralty Inlet into early Thursday
morning.
A stronger system will move over the waters Thursday night into
Friday, bringing elevated winds and seas. Winds will increase area-
wide overnight. A Gale Watch has been issued for the coastal waters,
East Strait, and Northern Inland Waters due to increasing
probabilities for gale force winds gusts. Winds will ease towards
Friday evening. Seas will also increase Thursday night, climbing to
15-19 feet by Friday afternoon.
The weekend will remain active, with an even stronger frontal system
moving through the area. Widespread gale gusts are possible across
the waters Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. The highest
chances for gales are for the coastal waters with a 60-85% chance,
while the interior waters have a 50-60% chance. Additionally, seas
will build through the day on Saturday and peak Sunday afternoon
towards 20 feet. There is a 40-50 chance for seas to exceed 20 feet.
Seas will start to ease late Sunday into Monday.
Conditions look to remain hazardous going into next week, as
additional frontal systems move near or through area waters. These
frontal systems will bring additional chances for strong to gale-
force winds.
29/15
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
River flooding is not expected through the next
seven days. However, a series of increasingly wet weather
systems will bring rain (and high mountain snow) to the region,
especially from Friday onward. While current forecasts are not
expected to cause flooding, this will begin to saturate soils
and raise base flows that could bring a concern with subsequent
storms systems into next week.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Thursday for West Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PST Thursday for Admiralty
Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Watch from late Thursday night through Friday afternoon
for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Watch from Friday morning through Friday afternoon for
Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Thursday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Gale Watch from Thursday evening through Friday afternoon for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion