Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
828
FXUS66 KSEW 070950
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
226 AM PDT Fri Aug 7 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm conditions again today, followed by a gradual cooldown to near-
normal temperatures over the weekend. Western Washington will be on
the backside of an upper level ridge through Saturday. Upper level
flow becomes zonal on Sunday, continuing through at least midweek.
Uncertainty in the forecast towards the second part of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Latest satellite imagery shows marine clouds pushing eastward,
getting as far west as Shelton...although for the northern half of
the Olympic Peninsula, eastward progress has been far more limited
to just the immediate coastline. Current temps showing a degree or
two lower than 24 hours ago, seeing at least some slight influence
from surface flow turning more onshore. That said, while the
majority of the CWA seeing temps in the 50s, 60s are hanging on
along the metro areas along the I-5 corridor, including Everett,
Seattle, Tacoma and Olympia.
The upper ridge will shift eastward throughout the day today. This,
along with the aforementioned onshore flow and the slightly cooler
temperatures early this morning will ease HeatRisk concerns for much
of the area. However, also stated above, the warmer conditions along
the I-5 corridor suggests that there will be one more day of
Moderate/Orange HeatRisk there. As such, inherited Heat Advisory
will remain in place. Continued onshore flow will continue to erode
smoke concerns, but similar to HeatRisk, conditions will still allow
for some haze again today before more successful eastward progress
of marine air should limit smoke concerns to the Cascades and
locations near any burning wildfires.
Zonal flow will keep conditions over the CWA pretty uneventful for
the remainder of the near term. Daytime highs will ease a couple of
degrees each day with Saturday mostly in the mid to upper 70s
/except for the lower 80s along the I-5 corridor and SW interior/
and more widespread mid to upper 70s for Sunday /mid to upper 60s
along the coast/.
18
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Long-term guidance keeps zonal flow aloft in place through at least
Wednesday...perhaps extending into early Thursday. It is at midweek
where dissolution of the consensus occurs, where there are some
hints at a potential weak trough. Solutions vary though, with some
bringing this feature one Wednesday, others on Thursday and various
times in between. Regardless, this trough looks to be mainly a dry
feature. High temps throughout the long term look to remain static
from where they were at the conclusion of the short term, with mid
to upper 70s expected for the interior lowlands while locations
along the coast or water adjacent can expect persistent mid to upper
60s.
18
&&
.AVIATION...
Onshore flow will increase in the TAF forecast as a thermal trough
pushes east, with higher pressure towards the water. Flow aloft will
remain westerly with a ridge breaking down to the east. Satellite
this morning shows two well pronounced marine pushes in progress -
one through the Strait of Juan de Fuca and another through the
southwest interior approaching KSHN as of 09Z. Confidence remains
low in inland track into Puget Sound terminals this morning, but in
a worst case (10-20%), KPAE would be the terminal to see brief
vis/cig reductions in Puget Sound. Remaining terminals west of Puget
Sound and around the Olympics will continue to see ceiling and/or
visibility reductions down to IFR/LIFR (including areas of fog along
the coast) this morning, before retreating to the coast later this
morning. Outside of the marine push, remaining terminals will see
VFR conditions today with smoke continuing to clear out. Southwest
winds this morning at 5 kt or less will shift to the northwest this
afternoon and evening 5-10 kt, becoming light/variable tonight.
Early indications for Saturday morning is another marine push
staying west of Puget Sound.
KSEA...VFR conditions anticipated to continue through the TAF period
with smoke clearing, and this morning`s marine push likely remaining
to the north/west of terminal (only a 15-20% chance of reduced
visibilities in a worst-case scenario). Winds this morning will
shift to the southwest at 5 kt, then switch to the northwest briefly
from 02Z-06Z before returning to the southwest under 5 kt.
HPR
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will remain predominant over the waters this weekend
into next week, as the thermal trough departs to the east. There has
been observations of fog/mist for portions of the northern coastal
waters and central/west Strait of Juan de Fuca, where a dense fog
advisory has been issued through 11 AM for visibilities of 1 NM or
less. Pushes of wind through the Strait of Juan de Fuca will begin
this evening, with a 40-50% chance of wind gusts over 20 kt.
Probabilities increase this weekend going into next week for winds
over 20 kt in the strait. A couple weak troughs and a front will
pass by later this weekend/early next week, which will also
introduce some chances for portions of the coastal waters seeing
wind gusts over 20 kt (as well as the strait). A more substantial
trough/front may pass over the waters midweek next week.
Seas 3-6 ft today through Saturday, increasing to 5-7 ft briefly
Sunday before dropping back to 4-6 ft Monday through next week.
HPR
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions across the area today with above
average temperatures in concert with dry conditions. Minimum RH
values are lowering into the mid 10s to lower 20s in Cascade zones
658/659 and surrounding valleys. While no significant wind or
instability is expected in the near term, and thus no need for any
fire weather headlines, given the persistent warm and dry conditions
continued caution is highly encouraged.
Even though onshore flow is expected to reach deeper into the CWA
today it will not be strong enough to completely alleviate concerns.
As it increases in strength Saturday into into early next week,
cooler temperatures and increased moisture with much better humidity
recoveries are expected across the region.
18
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Heat Advisory until 10 PM PDT this evening for City of Seattle-
Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastside-Foothills and
Valleys of Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of
Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys
of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Foothills and
Valleys of the North Cascades-Lowlands of Pierce and
Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and
Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western
Whatcom County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area.
PZ...Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Central
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters
From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-West
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion