Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
546
FXUS66 KSEW 081050
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
250 AM PST Sun Nov 8 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Just a few post frontal showers today for Western Washington
with the area in between systems. Next system arriving Monday
night with a warm front right behind it Tuesday. Warm front
lifting north Tuesday night. Trailing cold front stalling
offshore Wednesday producing possible record high temperatures.
Cold front getting stretched out Wednesday night with an upper
level trough digging south offshore. What is left of the front
moving through Thursday night. An atmospheric river will set up
over Western Washington Friday and Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Quick hitting cold fronts like the one Saturday night almost
always cause trouble. Front well to the east early this morning.
Satellite imagery and doppler radar showing post frontal shower
activity over the area. Haven`t seen any lightning strikes in
the last hour. Temperatures at 2 am/10z are still mild, in the
lower to mid 50s.
Calmer weather today across the area with post frontal shower
activity drying up this afternoon. Still breezy in some
locations this morning but winds aloft are easing quickly and
onshore surface gradients are weakening. Under mostly
cloudy/partly sunny skies temperatures will not warm up much
from the current readings with highs in the mid 50s.
Even though the winds have eased post frontal high surf
will keep dangerous conditions present along the beaches. The
high surf warning will remain in effect today.
Temporary upper level ridge moving through the area tonight.
Low level flow going offshore with the approach of the next
weather system. Some clearing overnight will allow temperatures
to drop into the mid 30s in the colder locations. Most places a
couple of degrees either side of 40. Seas subsiding overnight
into the 15 to 18 foot range. Current forecast has the high
surf warning expiring at 10 pm tonight.
Next frontal system approaching Western Washington Monday.
Parent low for the front well up into the Gulf of Alaska and
moving north northwest. This will stretch out the front and
cause it to become more north south oriented slowing down the
eastward movement of the system. Rain reaching the coast early
afternoon and over the interior by the Monday afternoon commute.
Highs again in the mid 50s.
Front slowly moving through Western Washington Monday evening
with rain coming to an end after midnight. Windy conditions
along the coast and over the Northwest Interior ( but nothing
like we had Saturday ). Lows in the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Next system moving quickly across the Pacific has a long fetch
of moisture with it, all the way back to 35N/150W. IVT values in
the 800-1000 km/m/s range, some of the higher numbers we have
seen so far this season. Rain moving back into the area during
the day. Highs in the mid 50s. Felton
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Extended models showing good consistency lifting Tuesday`s warm
front to the north Tuesday night. Trailing cold front stalling
off the coast Wednesday as a deep upper level trough digs south
behind the cold front. This scenario puts Western Washington in
the warm sector Wednesday with record highs, in the lower to mid
60s, possible.
Cold front stalled offshore Wednesday night getting stretched
out and weakened as the trough continues to dig south. What is
left of the front moving inland later Thursday into Thursday
night.
Flow aloft consolidating offshore Friday with an atmospheric
river setting up over Western Washington for more rain. Another
upper level trough will dig south off the coast Friday night
into Saturday. This trough will be a little further east than
the one earlier in the week. This has the potential to pivot the
atmospheric river right over Western Washington keeping rain
going Friday night into Saturday.
Snow levels remaining elevated during the extended period with
snow confined to the higher elevations well above pass levels.
Felton
&&
.AVIATION...
The cold front has now traversed the area, leaving western
Washington under mostly VFR conditions with scattered showers.
Terminals are reporting a scattered lower deck (2000-2500 ft), which
may fill in to MVFR at times with the showers, but it should remain
mostly scattered with a 15-25% chance of seeing MVFR conditions
through this morning. Cloud coverage will slowly decrease throughout
the day through high clouds will continue to stream overhead. Winds
have peaked across the area but remain around 15-25 kt this morning
with some gusts 20 to 35 kt. Winds start to ease below 10 kt after
around 18-21Z this morning, then below 5 kt after 03Z Mon. Offshore
flow will start to increase towards the very end of the TAF period
around 12Z Mon.
KSEA...Mostly VFR conditions through the TAF period with a 20-30%
chance of occasional MVFR cigs in heavier showers.
Showers and lower level clouds will start to decrease after 18-21Z
this morning. South to southwest winds around 15 kt with gusts to 25
kt will slowly decrease today, with easing gusts and winds around 10
kt after 18Z this morning, becoming around 5 kt or less this
evening. Winds become more easterly after 06Z Mon.
62
&&
.MARINE...
Winds have peaked over the coastal waters early this morning and
will continue to ease through the morning hours. Gale force winds
over all the area waters will ease below thresholds this morning for
a brief period of calmer winds through late tonight before the next
frontal system begins to move across the coastal waters on Monday.
Winds will begin to increase again early Monday morning, peaking in
the afternoon the frontal system traverses the area. Additional
headlines will be likely for all area waters, though Gale Watches
have been issued for the coastal waters and East Strait of Juan de
Fuca where confidence is highest in gale force gusts (50-80% chc).
Winds will decrease again Monday evening but not for long as another
system will be on its heels for another round of stronger winds
overnight Monday and throughout the day Tuesday. Additional frontal
systems will move through the waters mid to late week, likely
bringing more rounds of widespread headlines to the area waters.
Seas remain on their way up early this morning but are expected to
top out in the 20-25 ft range this afternoon. Seas will ease tonight
into Monday to around 12-15 ft before the next system brings seas
back to the 16-18 ft range on Tuesday. Seas will lower and rise
through mid to late week but remain above 13 ft through the end of
the week, with the next best chance for seas above 20 ft over this
weekend.
62
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
River flooding is not expected the next seven days. Multiple
weather systems moving through the area in the next week. While
current precipitation forecasts are not expected to cause
flooding, this will saturate soils and raise base flows. If the
atmospheric river stalls over the area late next week into next
weekend we might need to keep an eye on our old friend the
Skokomish River. Felton
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...High Surf Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Grays
Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for Grays Harbor
Bar.
Gale Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait
Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Watch from Monday morning through Monday evening for East
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 4 AM PST early this morning for Admiralty
Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
Islands.
Gale Warning until 7 AM PST this morning for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Puget Sound and
Hood Canal.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 AM PST Monday
for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James
Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Gale Watch from late tonight through Monday evening for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion