Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
972
FXUS66 KSEW 012157
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
157 PM PST Sun Feb 1 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Cooler and unsettled conditions continue into Monday
as a series of systems crosses the region. A high pressure
ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday,
allowing for unseasonably warm and dry conditions with rounds of
morning fog and low stratus throughout the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...Recent radar
imagery shows post frontal showers across much of the interior
this afternoon. These showers will continue throughout the
evening dissipating overnight. High temperatures this afternoon
in the low to mid 50s. Snow levels around 5000 feet will keep
the precipitation type as rain in most of the Cascade Passes.
Another weather system will cross over western Washington late
tonight through Monday morning, with another round of rain
across the area. Winds will slightly increase in areas along the
coast and north of Everett, with wind gusts generally around
20-25 mph at times throughout the morning. Snow levels will once
again rise with the passage of this moist airmass, with levels
rising to 6000 feet. High temperatures remaining in the low 50s.
An upper level ridge will begin to build Monday into Tuesday for
a return to drier conditions across western Washington and
rounds of morning fog. Temperatures will warm up with afternoon
highs in the upper 50s, even some places seeing above 60.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ensembles are in general agreement with ridging over the area
throughout much of the week. Rounds of morning and nighttime fog
are likely with light offshore flow in the lower levels.
Temperatures continue to be well above normal with afternoon
highs in the upper 50s and even the lower 60s for some places.
Some model guidance hints ridging to move eastward on Friday,
allowing for some weak systems to enter the area by the weekend
for chances of precipitation.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.AVIATION...
Showers are lingering behind the cold front, with some marginal
instability materializing as these cells move onshore. Surface
southerly winds have increased in Puget Sound with gusts reaching 20
kts this afternoon. Cigs are highly variable depending on rain
coverage. Terminals under these showers may experience periods of
IFR throughout the rest of the afternoon. Elsewhere, expect MVFR and
VFR. With minimal clearing so far this afternoon, patchy fog
overnight is going to likely be limited and not dense. Stratus is
more likely than widespread fog.
KSEA...VFR at the terminal this afternoon with showers in the
vicinity. Surface winds out of the south are elevated, with gusts
expected to peak between 20-25 kts this afternoon before easing
after 03Z. With little clearing having been achieved so far this
afternoon, the TAF reflects a drop down to MVFR with lower visbys
late tonight into early tomorrow morning due to stratus and a more
drizzle based pattern rather than fog. Surface winds will continue
out of the south through the TAF period.
62
&&
.MARINE...
The cold front has moved off to the east, with unstable air and
showers left behind. Some of the showers within the inner coastal
zones may be unstable enough for a lightning strike or two
throughout the rest of the afternoon. Winds will briefly ease this
afternoon before another system moves across the area tonight into
Monday. Winds will pick up once again in the same locations as
today, through winds look to be slightly stronger and more
widespread. SCAs for the coast have been extended into late Monday
night to account for seas remaining at 10-12 feet.
Afterwards, beginning Tuesday, broad high pressure builds across the
interior Pacific Northwest, forcing incoming systems to be deflected
and offshore flow will prevail across the area. Breezy winds may
persist across portions of the coastal waters Tuesday and Wednesday
as frontal systems encroach on the area but move off to the north,
tightening the pressure gradient across the area. Winds ease area-
wide by Thursday.
21
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Skokomish River remaining elevated through Monday. A couple
of shots of rain over the South Slopes of the Olympics will
push the river up to near flood stage later today and again on
Monday. The flood watch for Mason county will remain in effect.
The Skokomish will begin receding significantly Tuesday with the
dry weather. No river flooding on the remainder of the rivers
in Western Washington for the next 7 days. Felton
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Flood Watch through Monday evening for Foothills of the
Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Middle Chehalis
River Valley-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-
Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion