Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
187
FXUS66 KSEW 041554
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
854 AM PDT Fri Sep 4 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low along the Central Oregon coast this morning will
hardly move through Saturday morning. The low will drift north
over Western Washington Saturday afternoon and remain in the
vicinity until moving east Sunday night into Monday morning.
Dry northwesterly flow aloft later Monday into Tuesday. A weak
system will brush the area Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The surface low remains nearly stationary just off the coast of
Newport, Oregon, with scattered showers continuing to spin
around the low this morning as moisture continues to filter in
from the southeast. Off and on showers through the morning will
continue, as the air mass becomes unstable in the afternoon from
solar heating, allowing showers and isolated thunderstorms to
develop over the higher terrain. Light east southeasterly flow
aloft will try and push the showers into the lowlands late this
afternoon into the evening hours. Winds at 700 mb and 500 mb 10
knots or less will make it hard for the showers to get all the
way to the Puget Sound with storm motions only 15 kt or less.
With the light flow aloft any convection that does form has the
potential to produce at least a brief heavy downpour with the
cells moving slowly. Shower activity drying up in the evening
hours with mostly cloudy skies overnight. A little bit of sun
today pushing highs in the 60s and lower 70s. Lows tonight in
the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Low starts to drift north Saturday morning ending up over
Western Washington Saturday afternoon. Like today, showers
developing over the higher terrain by late morning will try and
float down into the lowlands in the afternoon and early evening
hours. Light flow aloft continuing with the low overhead making
it most likely the convection over the Cascades only gets to
the Cascade foothills with the activity over the Olympics not
getting all the way to the ocean. Showers dissipating in the
evening with partly cloudy skies into Sunday morning.
Persistence a good forecast for the temperatures Saturday and
Saturday night. Highs maybe a couple of degrees warmer than
Friday.
Low weakening but remaining in the vicinity Sunday. Could still
see a shower over the Cascades especially the South Cascades in
the afternoon otherwise just partly cloudy skies. Highs in the
upper 60s to mid 70s. Felton/62
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Model solutions have been in good agreement for a few runs that
the low kicks out to the east Sunday night and Monday. Dry
northwesterly flow aloft developing over the area Monday will
continue into Tuesday. Western Washington in a lull Wednesday
with a weak upper level low developing well to the southwest
and a weak system starting to slide down the British Columbia
coast. System brushing the area Thursday for a slight chance of
showers. Temperatures near normal through the period with mostly
sunny days and partly cloudy nights. Highs upper 60s to mid
70s. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Felton
&&
.AVIATION...
Variable flow aloft this morning as upper level low
moves very slowly over W WA. Surface winds at most terminals also
light and variable with speeds less than 5 kts. Direction will
shift to west or northwesterly this afternoon. Terminals on the
east side of the Sound will see winds turn again more northerly
in the evening. Speeds for all terminals will increase some,
generally ranging 4-8 kts to finish the TAF period.
Widespread VFR conditions this early morning. Cigs may lower a
little more this early morning, however nothing indicating that
bases will dip into lower flight categories. VFR conditions
expected to persist throughout the TAF period as cigs lift
further in the afternoon.
KSEA...VFR conditions this early morning and are expected to persist
as per above discussion. Southerly winds this morning and early
afternoon generally 4-8 kts becoming northwesterly mid-
afternoon, then north to northeasterly tonight with similar
speeds.
18/Mazurkiewicz
&&
.MARINE...
Marine forecast remains uneventful as winds and seas remain below
any sort of headline criteria. Broad low pressure remains in place,
with showers and a few thunderstorms possible again today, which
could bring isolated gusty outflow winds. Otherwise, northerly winds
develop over the waters Saturday through the start of next week. A
marginal westerly push through the Strait of Juan de Fuca around
Monday looks to be the next potential period of advisory strength
conditions. Seas currently 4 to 6 ft, expected to ease just a little
more this afternoon, down to 3 to 5 kt...and will remain there
through the first half of next week.
18
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion