Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
905
FXUS66 KSEW 081010
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
210 AM PST Sun Feb 8 2026
.SYNOPSIS...A system will move into Oregon and southern
Washington through today. Unsettled weather Monday into early
Tuesday with weak troughing. Drier weather midweek. Another
system likely late week for additional precipitation.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A mix of clouds and some
clearing early this morning in a post-frontal airmass. Weak
convergence has led to stratus in areas of King/Snohomish
Counties with additional clouds mainly south of Olympia ahead of
the next weather system. This system will track into Oregon
today, with precipitation through the afternoon mainly confined
south of Seattle, with the majority of QPF mostly over the
Cascades of Lewis County. Otherwise, some sunshine will be
around, especially along the Olympic Peninsula and north of
Everett.
Another round of showers will move onshore tonight, with showers
continuing at times on Monday for Western Washington. Snow
levels will also be around 3000 to 4000 feet through Monday,
resulting in light to moderate snow accumulation for the
Cascade Passes. Snow amounts through Monday evening are expected
to range 1 to 4 inches for Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass, with 6
to 8 inches of snow for White Pass due to the additional
precipitation today. Temperatures will remain in the upper 40s
to low 50s for highs through Monday.
Precipitation chances taper off on Tuesday, initially for
southern areas, with dry conditions expected for Seattle
southwards on Tuesday, and some light precipitation lingering
near BC into the afternoon.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...Ridging begins to
nudge into Western Washington Tuesday night through Wednesday,
resulting in drier weather midweek. Mostly clear skies will
promote fog development Wednesday morning. The ridge is rather
transient as the ridge flattens and southwest flow aloft
increases on Thursday. Precipitation potential begins to
increase on Thursday, with higher probabilities on Friday as a
weak front moves across the area. Uncertainty increases in
ensembles by next weekend, however, troughing is the general
theme, and thus unsettled weather, and cooler temperatures, are
expected next weekend. JD
&&
.AVIATION...A bit of a mixed bag of ceilings early this morning
across the area. Much of the northwest and the Olympic
Peninsula are seeing clear skies with areas of fog in some of
the valleys. Low clouds remain in place over the central Puget
Sound as a weakening convergence zone persists over the area.
Ceilings should slowly improve this morning, becoming VFR for
much of the day as clouds scatter with the system far to the
south. Areas of fog may dvlp this morning for areas with clear
skies but that will also clear out later this morning. Another
rounds of MVFR to IFR cigs are expected to return around the end
of the TAF period early Monday morning as a weak frontal system
begins to move through the area. Winds are still slowly coming
down but will be light and variable area-wide this morning.
Winds remain mostly light through the day, generally out of the
north. South to southwesterly winds begin to pick up this
evening up to 5-10 kt overnight tonight into early Monday.
KSEA...MVFR to VFR cigs early this morning under a weakening
convergence zone. Ceilings are already showing improvements but
periods of MVFR cigs may continue through 15-17Z. VFR conditions
return and will prevail through the remainder of the TAF period.
Ceilings will begin to lower at the end of the period as
another weak front moves through the area, but MVFR cigs aren`t
expected until after 12-15Z Mon. SW winds under 5 kt will become
light and variable through late morning. Winds switch to light
northerly after late morning before returning to S/SW by 03Z Mon
and begin to increase to around 8-12 kt by 12Z Mon.
62
&&
.MARINE...Small Craft Advisory level winds continue through
portions of the central and Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca early
this morning but continue to decrease and should ease before
sunrise this morning. Elsewhere, winds remain fairly light. A
weak frontal system will move across the area waters on Monday
but winds look to remain well below thresholds. Tranquil
conditions are in store Tuesday and Wednesday as broad high
pressure briefly builds across the area. The next frontal system
will move through the area Thursday into Friday which may
require the next round of headlines.
Seas around 8 to 9 ft will rise slightly to around 10 to 11 ft
tonight into Monday. Seas then fall Tuesday to around 5 to 7 ft
through Thursday when seas look to rise back up above 10 ft.
62
&&
.HYDROLOGY...The Skokomish River is cresting early this morning
below flood stage, and will continue to recede through today. No
river flooding is expected over the next 7 days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PST early this morning for
Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion