Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
795
FXUS66 KSEW 061044
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
244 AM PST Fri Feb 6 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions through today as the upper ridge axis
slides to the east. A frontal system moves through on Saturday
for the return of lowland rain, breezy winds, and cooler
conditions. A more active pattern at times expected into next
week with cooler temperatures.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Clear skies across much of
Western Washington has promoted shallow fog development,
particularly from Tacoma southwards, with areas of fog from
Whidbey Island northwards as well. Localized dense fog at times
into this morning before visibilities improve for these areas
into midday. Otherwise, mostly sunny conditions with a mix of
high clouds at times today. Temperatures will reach the mid to
upper 50s with mid 60s near the Cascade Valleys.
The upper ridge axis overhead continues to shift east on
Saturday ahead of a frontal system that will move across the
region. Lowland rain returns on Saturday, with snow levels
ranging 5000 to 6000 feet with this front. In addition, locally
breezy winds are expected, mainly along the coast, and from
Whidbey Island northwards. HREF/REFS probabilities suggest
south wind gusts ranging from 25 to 35 MPH gusts in these areas
Saturday morning. Another system will then track into northern
Oregon and southern Washington into Sunday, which may bring
another round of rainfall for southern portions of Western
Washington. Otherwise, snow levels do begin to lower by later
Sunday, reaching 3500 to 4000 feet by Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...Weak troughing
aloft will promote continued unsettled weather on Monday,
however, precipitation amounts are forecast to be rather light
on Monday for most areas. Western Washington returns to a bit
more of a split flow pattern Tuesday and Wednesday, with the
bulk of the energy from the trough over California. This lends
to a more of a drier forecast late Tuesday into midweek, with
temperatures a bit cooler in the upper 40s to low 50s.
Ensembles suggest another frontal system may approach the area
by Thursday with more SW flow aloft, although some uncertainty
remains, and have kept with NBM POPs mainly peaking 40 to 50% on
Thursday.
&&
.AVIATION...Areas of fog have developed across the area, primarily
across the South Sound, Chehalis valley, and portions of the
northwest interior. It may be intermittent at times, but expect fog
to continue through this morning for the above locations (including
OLM, HQM, PWT, and BLI). There is lower confidence that fog builds
and spreads into the metro area terminals, but chances remain at
around 20-25% between 10-18Z tonight. Satellite trends will be
monitored with subsequent updates when necessary. For now, will trim
up inherited TEMPO groups. Fog will dissipate late morning/early
afternoon. Outside of the morning fog, conditions remain VFR through
much of the TAF period as high clouds begin to fill in tonight ahead
of an incoming frontal system Saturday morning. Coastal terminals
will start to see lowering ceilings and increasing rain by 12Z
Saturday. Winds will remain east/southeasterly through the period,
and will begin to increase after 00Z Sat as the front begins to
approach.
KSEA...VFR conditions will prevail for most of the TAF period. LIFR
fog may return to the terminal early this morning, with the best
chances between 13-18Z this morning. Currently addressing in the TAF
as a TEMPO group given the uncertainty. Southeasterly winds 4 to 8
kt will increase to around 6 to 12 kt after 00Z Saturday.
62
&&
.MARINE...Dense fog has developed across the much of the South
Sound and Hood Canal late last night and will continue to persist
into this morning. Patchy banks of fog have also developed across
the north, across portions of the Strait of Georgia and Haro Strait.
Fog may slowly creep up into the main Puget Sound areas and into
Elliot Bay through this morning. Fog will slowly dissipate through
the late morning and into the early afternoon for the South Sound.
Winds have turned south/southeasterly across the coastal waters this
evening as high pressure weakens over the interior Pacific
Northwest. A frontal system will move through the waters on
Saturday, allowing winds to increase early Saturday through the
coastal waters. While sustained winds will below gale force, a few
gusts up to 35-40 kt will be possible Saturday morning. Winds
increase late morning through the interior waters, from Admiralty
Inlet northward. Winds ease area-wide Saturday evening behind the
frontal passage. Another weak system will keep winds elevated Sunday
into Monday. The pattern becomes calmer mid- week before the next
frontal system moves through late next week.
Seas look to remain in the 8-11 ft range through at least Tuesday,
except up to 12-14 ft early on Saturday as the front moves through.
Seas may ease below 8 ft mid-week.
62
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Heavier precipitation over the weekend and early
next week will force rises on the Skokomish River in Mason
County with the river close to minor flood stage. Flooding is
not expected elsewhere over the next 7 days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Puget
Sound and Hood Canal.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Saturday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion