Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
766
FXUS66 KSEW 240401
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
801 PM PST Mon Feb 23 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will continue to spin offshore, maintaining
showers across the region this week. Another frontal system
crosses around Wednesday, bringing additional rounds of heavier
snow in the mountains and rain in the lowlands. Temperatures
cool later in the week through the weekend with drier conditions
setting up for most.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The bulk of the precipitation this evening remains across far
southern portions of the CWA as moisture associated with a stalled
frontal boundary feeds into Oregon and Northern California. Most
remaining activity from Pierce County southward should diminish
toward early morning as the system finally progresses eastward.
Onshore flow increases during the day Tuesday. This may generate a
few rain/snow showers in the Cascades in the afternoon, but most of
the lowlands should be mostly dry albeit cloudy. Looking ahead to
Wednesday, the first of a pair of systems will clip the region from
the northwest, but precip amounts will be meager and much of Puget
Sound likely rain shadowed. No forecast updates are anticipated this
evening. The previous discussion follows with an update to the
aviation portion.
27
Widespread showers continue across the region this afternoon
with the bulk of the moisture continuing to be aimed across the
southern portions of the area. While this will bring some
additional snowfall to the higher elevations, only minor
additional roadway accumulations are expected at the Cascade
passes given the warmer surface temperatures and decreasing
showers. Heights rise a little into Tuesday which should largely
constrain showers to the mountains. Northwesterly flow develops
into Wednesday which will again introduce some shower chances
through the day. A passing disturbance into Wednesday night,
however, will bring the focus for additional moisture. While
the strongest moisture transport looks to the be the north of
the local area, this will bring the potential for additional
mountain snow. The focus of this looks to be generally from I-90
northward and most likely snowfall amounts are around 6 inches
at the Cascade passes with this system. 12
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ensemble guidance continues to favor a west or northwest flow
pattern across the region late this week. Initially, the focus
will remain in the North Cascades, with US 2 northward through
Mt. Baker likely seeing increasing snowfall amounts into the
weekend. However, showers are expected to continue across most
of the area with snow levels around 3000 ft or so. Looking into
the weekend, heights rise a little bit and likely limit the
potential for showers across much of the area. This will allow
for some clearing and temperatures to trend cooler, with
overnight lows approaching or dropping below freezing for many
locations (especially away from the city centers). 12
&&
.AVIATION...
West to southwest flow aloft over Western Washington will continue
into Tuesday as an upper trough offshore continues to weaken and
retrograde further offshore. Precipitation associated with
a stalled frontal boundary over Oregon will remain largely
south of the area. Ceilings are expected to remain at or above
4000 to 5000 feet across most of Western Washington into the
overnight hours before deteriorating toward morning. A mixed bag of
high end MVFR and low end VFR ceilings are expected on Tuesday
morning before lifting to VFR areawide in the afternoon.
KSEA...A gradual lowering of ceilings is expected overnight with
ceilings right around MVFR thresholds 14Z-20Z before lifting again
in the afternoon. Surface winds N/NE 4 to 7 knots rising to 7 to 10
knots mid-morning then shifting northwesterly 7 knots or less
Tuesday afternoon.
27
&&
.MARINE...
Seas remain around 10 ft and relatively steep with dominant
period around 9 to 10 seconds over the coastal waters this
afternoon. The SCA for the coastal waters has been extended
through this evening as a result. Otherwise, seas continue to
steadily but slowly subside over the next day or two. Meanwhile,
winds Tuesday night through the Strait of Juan de Fuca will
increase, with around a 50% chance of advisory strength winds.
The more significant increase in winds is likely to be
Wednesday night through early Thursday as a disturbance slides
across the area and increases the westerly winds through the
Strait. Local gale gusts are possible (30-40%), but confidence
remains low in the precise timing. Otherwise, expect building
seas late in the week over the coastal waters, with a return to
10-15 ft waves likely (80% chance). 12
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding is expected during the next seven days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion