Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
556
FXUS66 KSEW 141727
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
927 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Another frontal system will bring a return of rain
and windy conditions later today into Sunday. A trend toward
drier and cooler conditions is expected toward the middle
portion of next week as the storm track shifts south of Western
Washington.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...An upper trough axis is
moving onshore over Western Washington early this morning as
another, more vigorous system approaches the region just
offshore. A combination of high tide and low atmospheric
pressure will bring a renewed threat of minor coastal flooding
to the San Juans and Western Whatcom county this morning. Seas
in excess of 20 feet continue along coast beaches. Rain and wind
will increase along the coast later today with rain spreading
inland this evening into the overnight hours. Windy conditions
will also develop through today near the east entrance to the
strait and adjacent areas with some gusts of 45-55 mph.
The front will shift east of the Cascades by early Sunday
afternoon with winds gradually easing and post-frontal showers
across the area. A cooler air mass will follow the front...so
there will be enough instability for isolated
thunderstorms...especially near the coast. Snow levels will
fall to around 4000 feet Sunday night, but QPF will be light by
this time for just light accumulation at some of the higher
passes. An upper level trough will remain over the area on
Monday for scattered showers mainly coast and higher terrain and
high temperatures back to around seasonal levels.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...Drier conditions
return to the area Monday night into Tuesday as the upper trough
shifts eastward. Model solutions are falling into better
agreement regarding the midweek system taking a further
southward track and just brushing the southern portion of the
CWA with some light precip on Wednesday. Ensembles favor cool
and generally dry conditions to finish off next week with the
potential for more active conditions returning thereafter.
JD/27
&&
.AVIATION...A mix of VFR and MVFR in places under stronger
shower activity. Expecting most terminals to remain under a
broken VFR layer as shower activity diminishes this morning and
high clouds begin to fill in as the next system approaches the
region. The next front will bring heavier rain to the coast this
evening, then moving through overnight into early Sunday
morning across the interior. MVFR conditions are most likely
overnight as the heavier rain moves through, then lifting to VFR
after 12-15Z Mon as rain transitions to showers. Some areas of
localized/episodic lower ceilings cannot be ruled out, however,
going into Monday morning.
South/southeasterly winds 8-15 kt with locally higher gusts will
increase tonight, with gusts up to 25-30 kt across the entire area
by late tonight. Locally higher gusts 30-40 kt possible along the
coast and through the northern interior overnight. Winds will peak
overnight but remain elevated through much of Sunday with continued
gusts of 15-25 kt as winds will be very slow to decrease.
KSEA...VFR conditions with vicinity showers throughout the day. The
next front is slated to arrive tonight with steadier rainfall, a
brief period of MVFR cigs overnight, and gusty winds. Surface winds
remain S/SE. Winds 8-12 kt today, increasing to 10 to 15 kt
overnight with gusts up to 25 kt possible through early Sunday.
41/62
&&
.MARINE...Numerous headlines remain in place as we`re currently
in between systems. SCA advisories are in effect this morning
but as the day progresses, strong winds are slated to become
more widespread as Gales become common across interior waters
(minus Puget Sound but a SCA at the least may be needed) and
Storm Force winds arrive for all of the coastal waters. The
culprit is a sub 965 mb surface low swinging a cold front across
the region this evening into the night hours. Along with winds,
high seas are forecast around 20 ft today with a dominant
period of 17 to 18 seconds, highly energetic. Seas will
gradually decrease to 15 to 20 ft by Sunday morning. An
additional increase to 20 to 25 appears likely in the afternoon.
South winds will ease a bit on Sunday, but remain elevated
especially for the Coastal Waters.
Winds subside further Monday into early Tuesday before increasing
again going into midweek with a stronger weather system moving
southwards well offshore. Confidence is leading towards developing
high pressure for next weekend as benign conditions appear to be on
the horizon.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...The potential for flooding continues on the
Skokomish River with periods of heavy rainfall through the
weekend. A Flood Watch remains in effect.
River flooding is not expected on the other rivers in the area
in the next 7 days at this time.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST today for Lowlands of
Western Whatcom County-San Juan County.
Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Sunday for
Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast-San
Juan County.
Flood Watch through late tonight for Olympia and Southern
Puget Sound-Olympics-Southern Hood Canal.
High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor
County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor
Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan
De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
Islands-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Sunday for
Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST Sunday for
Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan
De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for Puget Sound and
Hood Canal.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM PST Sunday for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion