Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
092
FXUS66 KSEW 072307
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
307 PM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will cross over the area this evening into
Sunday morning, bringing widespread lowland rain, gusty winds,
high elevation mountain snow, and high surf conditions. A brief
break late Sunday before another wet and windy system moves into
the area late Monday into Tuesday. Active weather continues
through the end of the week with multiple systems passing into
the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Brief dry conditions this afternoon across much of the area will
be short lived, as a potent cold front crosses over western
Washington this evening through Sunday morning.
We`ll start to see an increase in lowland rain spreading along
the coast this evening with widespread rainfall through in the
interior tonight. Additionally, there is some instability with
the aforementioned front, with a 20-30% chance of isolated
thunderstorms, primarily along the coast. Could see a lightning
strike or two in the interior, but less of chance of
thunderstorms (10-20%). As rain spreads throughout the region
southerly winds will increase over much of the area. Latest REFS
guidance shows a 50-70% chance of wind gusts over 55 mph along
for areas along the coast. Therefore, a High Wind Warning
continues to remain in effect for areas along the coast.
Elsewhere, A Wind Advisory is out for interior areas, seeing
gusts anywhere from 45 to 50 mph at times. Due to continued
foliage on the trees for many locations, localized power outages
can be possible. Furthermore, clogged storm drains may occur
when the period of gusty winds overlaps with steadier rain this
evening. Give yourself extra time if traveling this evening. The
wind will peak during the overnight hours into early Sunday
morning, before steadily decreasing late Sunday afternoon.
Seas will rise rapidly tonight into Sunday, building to 22 to 28
feet along the beaches tonight. A High Surf Warning remains in
effect tonight for these areas. Those participating in razor
clam digs should exercise caution, as large waves and strong
winds will make for dangerous conditions for the clam dig.
Widespread steadier rain will transition into a more post-
frontal shower environment through Sunday afternoon, with most
of the shower activity focused on the North Cascades and
Olympics. The primary concern shifts to high surf conditions
along the coast on Sunday. Snow levels generally around 7000 to
7500 feet will fall to 4500 feet, for some accumulations in the
higher terrain of the mountains. Shower activity will decrease
over the interior throughout the day. High temps in the mid 50s.
A break in the weather Sunday evening before another system
rolls right on in on Monday for another round of widespread rain
and locally breezy conditions. Most of the QPF, once again is
focused on the Olympics.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Latest ensemble guidance a bit shaky on timings and strength of
upcoming systems. A steady plume of moisture looks to become
more focused along Vancouver Island and parts of western
Washington on Tuesday into Wednesday for more widespread
rainfall, warmer temps, and breezy conditions. Most of the
precip is aimed along the Olympics and North Cascades, with most
of the interior seeing showers at times. Active weather
continues with additional systems at the end of the week for
more rainfall and breezy conditions. It seems like we have
entered the active weather season this November!
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.AVIATION...
West to southwest flow aloft will continue to increase this
this afternoon and evening, becoming strong, as a vigorous
frontal system moves onshore into the region. Rain is already
starting to move inland along the coast this afternoon ahead of
the frontal system. Conditions have largely rebounded to VFR
across the majority of the area terminals this afternoon. The
exception remains along the coast, where conditions are MVFR
for terminals in rain. Rain will continue to push inland into
this evening, likely spreading inland to most of the interior
by 06Z with ceilings between 3000-4000 feet. Strong southerly
surface winds with gusts 35 to 45 knots will develop along the
coast later this afternoon/evening and will spread inland to the
interior areas this evening and overnight. Winds will peak
during the overnight period and gradually ease through Sunday
morning. Showers will persist through Sunday morning, tapering
later in the day. A few isolated thunderstorms will be possible
in any heavier bands of showers, but confidence in occurrence
remains too low for inclusion in any TAF at this time.
KSEA...VFR ceilings at the terminal this afternoon. Gusty surface
winds will develop by late this afternoon and increase through
the evening hours. Rain is expected to arrive between 04-06Z
with ceilings lowering between 3000-4000 feet. Surface winds
will increase to 8 to 12 kt late this afternoon then quickly
increase to southerly 15 to 25 kt this evening. Wind gusts to
30 to 35 kt will be possible this evening and overnight before
gradually easing Sunday morning. Low level wind shear is expected
just ahead of and within the vicinity of the front this evening
with 2000 foot winds becoming southerly at 45 to 50 kt.
&&
.MARINE...
An active weather pattern will continue over the next several
days as a series of frontal systems move across the area waters.
A vigorous frontal system associated with a deepening surface
low offshore British Columbia will swing across the waters
tonight into early Sunday. This system will produce a period of
storm force wind gusts over the coastal waters and gales across
the interior waters tonight into early Sunday. Seas will build
to 22 to 28 feet late tonight into Sunday before gradually
subsiding again Sunday night into Monday. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible in the wake of the system tonight into Sunday
morning and may bring brief heavy downpours, lightning, gusty
winds, and reduced visibilities to the area waters.
Weak high pressure will briefly build over the waters on Monday
before another deepening surface low moving northward into the
Gulf of Alaska pushes another front across the area waters
Monday night into Tuesday. Seas will build back towards 16-18 ft
on Tuesday and persist in this range into Wednesday.
Additional frontal systems will move through the waters mid to
late week, likely bringing more rounds of widespread headlines
to the area waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
River flooding is not expected through the next seven days.
Multiple weather systems moving through the area in the next
week. While current precipitation forecasts are not expected to
cause flooding, this will saturate soils and raise base flows
that could bring a concern with storm systems by late next
week.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Sunday for
City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-
Eastside-Island County-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern
King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern
Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-
Port Townsend Area-San Juan County-Shoreline / Lynnwood /
South Everett Area.
Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Sunday for
Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-
Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River
Valley-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Western Strait of
Juan de Fuca-Willapa and Black Hills.
High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Sunday
for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
High Surf Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Sunday
for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor
Bar.
Gale Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for Central U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait
Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan
De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for Northern Inland Waters
Including The San Juan Islands.
Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for Admiralty Inlet.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST Sunday for
Puget Sound and Hood Canal.
Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out
10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion