Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
127
FXUS66 KSEW 110357
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
757 PM PST Sat Jan 10 2026
.SYNOPSIS...An atmospheric river will produce periods of
moderate to heavy rain from tonight through Monday night. This
rain, along with a mild air, will bring rises on many area
rivers. Flooding is expected on the Skokomish River. Strong high
pressure then builds into the region by the middle of the week,
bringing a stretch of dry conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...Moist, west to
southwest, flow returns as we move into another soggy pattern
over the next 48-72 hours. The main focus is on accumulating
rainfall, particularly over the Olympics and Cascades, with
potential for river flooding. As of now, the only river
forecast to exceed flood stage is the Skokomish River in Mason
County. However, several other rivers flowing off the central
and northern Cascades will also see rises and may reach Action
stage or crest close to Minor flood stage.
Initially, snow levels will hover close to 4,000 ft and the
higher peaks and passes (like Stevens Pass) will see a few
inches of snow tonight. Snow levels will then rise to
7,000-8,000 ft on Sunday and Monday for mainly rain in the
mountains.
Mean precipitation (48-hour totals ending Monday night) is
around 0.50-1.00" in the lowlands with 1-3" along the coast
(highest north coast).
With a mild air mass in place, temperatures will trend warmer
than average with highs in the lower to mid 50s on Monday.
Expect lows in the mid 40s.
In addition, it will be windy too with south gusts 30-40 MPH
primarily along the coast and Everett northward, based on HREF
wind probabilities. Winds will ease on Monday. 33
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...A strong ridge builds
from the south on Tuesday, forcing the main precip band to our
north and into B.C. (thus shutting off the moist flow). Mean
max temps are in the mid to upper 50s with low 60s possible. The
ridge remains anchored over the Pac NW for the next several
days for a prolonged dry period of weather. With high pressure
and light winds, we will see cooler overnight lows in the 30s
starting Friday morning, with high confidence that cooler
mornings will continue through the weekend. 33
&&
.AVIATION...Rain and lowering ceilings tonight with MVFR
conditions prevailing by 12z. The front will stall over the
northwest portion of the area tonight and Sunday for rather
consistent conditions through much of Sunday - rain and MVFR.
Expect gusty S winds at KPAE, KBLI and KHQM to 25 kt.
KSEA...Expect lowering ceilings tonight with steadier rain and
MVFR conditions expected 09-15z and continuing through much of
the day Sunday with gradual improvement late.
&&
.MARINE...A front will continue to advance into the northern
portion of the waters this evening before remaining stationary
tonight through Monday. This will maintain increased southerly
or southeasterly winds to 30 kt over the coastal waters, west
entrance Strait of Juan de Fuca, and the east entrance/Admiralty
Inlet/Northern Inland waters for much of the weekend. There is
a 50-60% change of a brief period of gale gusts Sunday evening
and night across these same areas. Seas will also remain around
15 ft over the coastal waters this evening and tonight before
peaking at 17-19 ft Sunday. Seas then subside to 10 ft late
Monday or Tuesday with a diminishing swell and building high
pressure. High pressure then remains in place for the middle to
end of the week with winds not expected to reach advisory
criteria, though seas likely again build later in the week.
Cullen
&&
.HYDROLOGY...No river flooding is expected through most of the
weekend. The Skokomish River in Mason County is forecast to
reach flood stage late Sunday night and crest in Moderate flood
stage Monday. In the Cascades, while none of the rivers are
currently forecast to reach flood stage, numerous rivers from
King county northward are forecast to crest in Action stage
Monday or Tuesday, with a few crests close to Minor flood stage.
This event is likely to be followed by a dry period, allowing
for rivers to recede mid to late next week.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Flood Watch from Sunday morning through late Sunday night for
Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-
Middle Chehalis River Valley-Olympia and Southern Puget
Sound-Olympics-Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black
Hills.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Admiralty Inlet-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Grays Harbor
Bar-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-
West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion