Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
050
FXUS66 KSEW 250308
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
808 PM PDT Sat Oct 24 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
An offshore storm system moving into area today
will very gradually shift south and east through Monday morning.
This will bring widespread rain and breezy conditions through
Sunday morning followed by showery unsettled weather into the
start of the week. The pattern looks to remain very seasonal for
the last week of the month - cooler with a series of systems
bringing periods of unsettled weather nearly every day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Rain remains on track this evening with a minor update to the
short-term below, and aviation section. -HPR
The offshore system that has been sliding down the British
Columbia coast continues to move off the Washington coast, with
light warm frontal precipitation spreading into the north
Olympic Peninsula, and into British Columbia this evening. REFS
guidance showing the cold front slowly moving onshore overnight
as the parent system takes it`s time moving south and east.
Precipitation with the cold front will be heavier that the
lighter rain Saturday. While this ultimately is a fairly typical
October storm system, it is the first fall-like system to move
into the area, and will definitely feel different as such.
Heavier precipitation amounts are expected along the coast and
Olympic Peninsula with 24 hour amounts through Sunday evening in
the neighborhood of 1-2 inches, and 0.50 to 1 inch along the
I-5 corridor eastward. In addition to the rainfall, increasing
south winds along the coast this evening will spread inland
ahead of and with the front, remaining breezy through Sunday.
Peak wind gusts of 20 to 35 mph are possible for many areas.
The parent upper level system is expected to continue its slow
south-southeast track through the day Sunday into Monday.
Ensembles showing more agreement in the track of the upper level
low than the surface low. The higher resolution REFS ensemble
hinting at a more northerly track with the ensemble mean showing
the surface low moving into Grays Harbor late Monday morning,
while many of the other higher resolution ensembles like the
HREF and UW ensemble systems show a much more southerly track.
In any case, with the upper level low over the area Sunday into
Monday morning, scattered, but widespread showers will
linger well into Monday before shifting east with the upper
level support late Monday afternoon.
High temperatures will trend near normal in the mid to upper
50s, while overnight lows will trend cooler than normal in the
in the low 30s to low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The grand ensemble remains generally consistent early in the
week with the upper level trough associated with the weekend
system shifting into the northern Intermountain area Tuesday
morning. Ensembles all hint at a trailing shortwave sliding down
the British Columbia coast, with variability in the strength
and timing. The consistent message is that the bulk of the
relatively light precipitation looks to be focused mainly south
of western Washington Tuesday. Ensembles very consistently
showing a more consolidated upper level low sliding down the BC
coast Tuesday night and into western Washington Wednesday. This
looks scenario very similar in many ways to this weekend`s
system, with cooler temperatures and widespread rain over much
of the Pacific Northwest. The pattern looks to remain unsettled
Thursday into Saturday with a broad positively tilted upper
level trough along the Western US. Some scenarios showing a more
consolidate upper level low over California. For the Pacific
Northwest the pattern looks to remain unsettled - but seasonal -
through the last few days of the month.
&&
.AVIATION...
Southwest flow aloft increases into Sunday, becoming more
southerly by Sunday afternoon as an upper trough digs offshore.
Widespread VFR mid and high clouds this evening across western
Washington ahead of a frontal system. However, MVFR has been
observed along the coast and BLI as rain continues to slowly
spread eastwards. Low-end VFR to high-end MVFR cigs expected for
most southern and central Puget Sound terminals by early
Sunday. Lower VFR cigs for interior, with continued MVFR for
portions of the Olympic Peninsula on Sunday afternoon. Vsby
reductions possible in areas of steadier rain into Sunday,
dropping to 3 to 6SM, lowest along the coast. Increasing S/SE
winds for the coast, and E/NE winds for BLI into tonight,
remaining light for KPAE to KTCM into Sunday.
KSEA...VFR continues through tonight with mid and high clouds. Cigs
slowly lowering towards MVFR by Sunday AM. At this time, the
probability for MVFR cigs peaks between 13 to 18z Sunday as rain
arrives, with probabilities around 25 to 30%. Rain at times into
Sunday PM, with brief reductions to vsbys possible. VFR for Sunday
afternoon with continued OVC mid clouds. Light west winds this
afternoon, with a light E/NE component tonight into Sunday.
&&
.MARINE...
A surface low offshore of Vancouver Island will continue to
slowly shift southwards along the offshore waters through this
weekend before weakening and moving onshore in the vicinity of
NW Oregon on Monday. East to southeast winds will increase
tonight ahead of the approaching system. Small Craft Advisory
southerly winds continue for a longer duration over the Coastal
Waters through at least Sunday afternoon. Gale force wind gusts
are also expected at times for the northern outer Coastal Waters
through this evening. Southeast winds also increase for the
eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca, northern inland waters, and
Admiralty Inlet early Sunday. The SCA has been upgraded to a
Gale Warning for the east Strait given the higher confidence in
gale force wind gusts, along with SCA winds for northern inland
waters and Admiralty Inlet. Otherwise, east winds remain
elevated for the eastern and western Strait of Juan de Fuca into
Sunday. Will need to monitor any additional upgrades to gales,
mainly for the far eastern segment of the central Strait. Winds
remain light for Puget Sound into Sunday. Winds subside Monday
into Tuesday with another system expected to move through the
area on Wednesday.
Seas will build to 8 to 12 feet tonight before subsiding below 10
feet by early Sunday night. Seas will then remain in the 4 to 7 foot
range for the majority of the week. JD
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM PDT Sunday for Grays
Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Sunday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape
Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning from 2 AM to 5 PM PDT Sunday for East Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM PDT Sunday for
Admiralty Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The San
Juan Islands.
Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM PDT
Sunday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
Island 10 To 60 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion