Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
521
FXUS66 KSEW 021016
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
316 AM PDT Fri Oct 2 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Zonal flow aloft today with a weak system bringing precipitation
chances to northern portions of Western Washington. Warm and dry
conditions over the weekend as an upper level ridge builds over the
Pacific Northwest. The ridge weakens on Monday and flow aloft
becoming more zonal. Cooler and dry conditions next week with the
return of onshore flow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Latest satellite imagery shows high clouds streaming overhead, while
stratus pushes inland along the coast. Zonal flow will continue over
Western Washington today. A weak system moving into British Columbia
will keep the chances of precipitation for northern portions of
Western Washington through the afternoon. This includes the Olympic
Peninsula, Whatcom and San Juan Counties. An upper level ridge will
start building across the Pacific Northwest Friday afternoon through
the weekend, bringing warmer and drier conditions. High temperatures
along the coast will be in the low to mid 60s and along the interior
in the upper 60s to low 70s. Low temperatures will be in the upper
40s to low 50s. Partly cloudy skies on today, with a few locations
seeing some afternoon sun if the clouds manage to scatter out.
Expect to wake up to low clouds and areas of fog across Western
Washington Saturday and Sunday morning. Clouds will scatter out by
the afternoon for mostly clear skies.
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&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
There is good agreement among ensemble guidance that the upper level
ridge over the Pacific Northwest will begin to flatten on Monday
with a more zonal upper level pattern establishing itself over
Western Washington. Onshore flow returns Monday with dry and cooler
conditions favored next week.
29
&&
.AVIATION...
A mix of VFR and MVFR cigs this morning as low stratus pushes inland
along the coast. Not expecting the stratus to push east of the
Kitsap Peninsula into central Puget Sound terminals. Conditions
along the coast will continue to deteriorate overnight to IFR/LIFR.
Southern interior terminals under clear skies and light winds may
see fog development. Conditions will improve in the afternoon with
widespread VFR for the interior. Along the coast, conditions will
only improve to MVFR or low-end VFR. Light to calm winds early this
morning will increase out of the WSW in the afternoon. Winds will
become NW in the evening after 23-00Z.
KSEA...VFR conditions today. Not expecting the stratus to impact
the terminal this morning, as probabilities remain at 25% or less.
Light WSW winds this morning will increase to 5-7 kt. Winds will
shift NW around 01Z at 5-7 kt. Low cigs return Saturday morning,
with current probabilities for MVFR at 40%.
29
&&
.MARINE...
Generally high pressure over area waters through next week. A weak
frontal system will move over the waters today, but no significant
impacts expected with this system. A thermal trough will build along
the coastline on Saturday causing surface winds over the waters to
shift northerly to northeasterly through Sunday. Onshore flow
returns on Monday. Models are highlighting a push of westerlies
through the central portion of Strait of Juan de Fuca Sunday night
into Monday morning, with the strongest winds expected to remain on
the Canadian side. A stronger round of westerlies is expected Monday
evening, with a 70-90% chance of winds exceeding 21 kt.
Additionally, there is a 40-45% chance for gale gusts. Seas
generally 3-5 ft, building up to 6 ft by Monday.
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&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns remain minimal through the next few days.
Developing high pressure aloft this weekend with a thermal trough
building up the coastline will bring warm temperatures and light
offshore flow. This could result in locations in the Cascades and
adjacent valleys seeing minimum RH values approach 30% on Sunday.
This will be short lived, with onshore flow returning early next
week to boost humidity values and bring back cooler temperatures.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion