Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
926
FXUS66 KSEW 231100
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
300 AM PST Fri Jan 23 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak system moving out of the area to the south early this
morning. Upper level ridge offshore will rebuild today and
remain in place through Saturday. The ridge will weaken Sunday
with another weak system brushing the coast Monday. Ridge moving
inland the middle of next week which brings up the possibility
of another weak system reaching Western Washington.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Satellite imagery shows weak system moving south out of the area
early this morning. Skies clearing behind the system with the
northern edge of the cloud cover near Olympia at 2 am/10z. Cloud
cover earlier has kept temperatures mostly in the 30s. With a
couple more hours of clear skies temperatures have dropped into
the upper 20s over the Northwest Interior.
Cloud cover associated with the weak system will be out of the
area before sunrise. Just patchy fog in the cloudless areas.
System did stir up the lower levels of the air mass a touch.
Will be a close call on whether there is enough time for fog to
form over the Southwest Interior as skies clear there this
morning. Outside of the fog coverage sunny skies today. The
system did bring a little cooler air into the area so highs will
only be in the mid 40s.
Upper level ridge offshore rebuilding later today into tonight.
The ridge will remain in place through the weekend but weaken a
little Sunday. Low level northerly flow will weaken tonight into
Saturday and remain light Sunday. Cross Cascade gradient
remaining in the -4 to -6 mb range. Not strong enough to
prevent freezing fog from forming in the late night and early
morning hours in the usual places like the Southwest Interior.
Story the next couple of nights will be the cool overnight low
temperatures. Most places in the 20s both Saturday and Sunday
morning with the colder locations getting into the teens Sunday
morning. A cold weather advisory Sunday morning for the
Southwest Interior, Southern Hood Canal and Eastern Kitsap
county ( lows in the teens ) may be needed. Highs both days in
the lower to mid 40s.
The current Seattle dry streak sits at 10 days through Thursday.
This is the 9th time Seattle has had a 10 day or more dry
streak in January since records started at Seattle-Tacoma
airport in 1945. The last time Seattle had a 10 day plus dry
streak in January, last year 13 days from January 17-29. Before
last year the last time was 2013, January 11-22. The record
January dry streak is 15 days, January 16-30, 1963. There were
3 days in that streak with snow flurries that only amounted to a
trace of precipitation on those days. The longest streak with
zero precipitation, no traces, is 12 days January 11-22, 2013
and January 19-30, 1945. Felton
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Another weak system moving through the ridge Sunday night into
Monday for a slight chance of precipitation mainly west of the
Puget Sound Monday. Ridge temporarily rebuilds offshore Tuesday
then moves inland Wednesday and Thursday. Model blend
introduces chance pops as early as late Tuesday night as the
ridge moves inland. Model trends have been to disrespect the
ridge in days 6 and 7 frequently the last few days. Ensembles
similar to model blend with 20-30 percent of the solutions wet
Wednesday into Thursday as the ridge continues to move east.
Even if a system does get into the area in the middle of next
week it will be splitting which will not amount to much in the
way of precipitation. Plenty of locations still below freezing
Monday morning. Lows warming into the mid 30s to lower 40s for
the remainder of the period. Highs in the mid 40s Monday warming
into the mid 40s to lower 50s for Tuesday through Thursday.
Felton
&&
.AVIATION...
Generally high end MVFR this evening with localized areas of IFR in
low stratus. Low clouds will continue to expand across the western
Washington terminals this morning, with some potential for patchy
fog. Conditions will improve to VFR by early this afternoon as low
level northerly flow scours out much of the low level moisture.
Another round of widespread MVFR/IFR in low stratus and patchy fog
is on tap overnight into early Saturday morning. Surface winds
through the period will generally remain out of the N/NE at 3 to 8
kt.
KSEA...Ceilings bouncing between MVFR and VFR early this morning,
with conditions expected to deteriorate to IFR after 12z this
morning. Increasing low level northerly flow should help erode it by
the mid to late morning today. Surface winds N/NE 4 to 8 kt
throughout the TAF period with another round of MVFR to IFR ceilings
possible early Saturday morning.
15
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to build back over area waters today as
a thermal trough builds northward along the coast. Offshore flow
will return and may be breezy at times, especially along the central
and western Strait of Juan de Fuca and along the gaps in the coastal
terrain. Fraser Outflow will increase early this morning and will
also bring breezy northeasterly winds to portions of the Northern
Inland Waters on Friday. While gusts to around 20 kt are the most
likely scenario, there`s around a 30-40% chance of gusts to 25-30 kt
and if this increases, a small craft advisory may be needed.
Offshore flow will persist through the weekend, but will be weaker.
A weak frontal system looks to reach the waters by early next week,
allowing for winds to gradually shift back to the south across the
area waters by Monday. Southerly winds look to increase Tuesday into
Wednesday as another, stronger frontal system approaches the region.
Seas will hold steady between 3-6 ft through the weekend, but look
to build closer to 10 ft near the middle of next week as stronger
systems move back into the area.
15
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding in the next 7 days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion