Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
769
FXUS66 KSEW 091949
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1249 PM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers continue tonight into tomorrow as low pressure moves
through the area. Winds and seas will slowly ease tonight into
Saturday. Overnight lows over the weekend may be enough for
localized frost and freeze potential. The next front to impact
the area looks to arrive late Tuesday into Wednesday for more
rain and breezy winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Rain has mostly ended across western Washington with the
exception of a post-frontal convergence zone centered over
Seattle and extending east into the Cascades. This feature will
slowly shift south and eastward and weaken this evening as the
winds slowly ease. Winds across the area remain in the 10-20 mph
range with gusts between 20-35 mph. Winds are peaking now and
will slowly ease this evening. High temperatures today in the
upper 50s to low 60s will cool into the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Another weak low pressure system will move across the area on
Saturday, keeping chances for scattered showers in the forecast
through tomorrow afternoon. High temperatures remain seasonably
cool, into the mid to upper 50s. Skies look to clear out
Saturday evening. As the low moves south, offshore flow will
begin to pick up Saturday evening with breezy northeasterly
winds from western Whatcom county and through the San Juans with
gusts up to around 25 mph. Elsewhere, across southwestern
Washington, clear skies and mostly light winds Saturday night
will promote efficient cooling, with lows reaching from the mid
40s in the metro area to mid 30s in the sheltered valley
locations. Our first frost advisory for the season has been
issued for portions of the SW WA Cascades and the middle
Chehalis river valley. The upper reaches near Olympia and
Chehalis could potentially get fog, so there is greater
uncertainty there. The winds would be the limiting factor for
the foothills and valleys farther north into King and Snohomish
counties, but trends will have to be monitored for expansion of
the frost advisory.
Sunday looks to be drier and sunnier as high pressure builds
back in over the area. Breezy north/northeasterly winds look to
continue with gusts up to 20 mph, especially over the waters.
Highs in the upper 50s to low 60s. Cool conditions continue
Sunday night with the potential for more frost.
62
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ensembles continue to highlight drier but cooler conditions
into Monday. Morning lows Monday will likely reflect the
previous couple of nights, in the mid to upper 30s for most
areas. Could see potentially another round of frost and freeze
potential, particularly in the Cascade valley and southwest
interior locations. Otherwise, Monday will be mostly dry with
high temperatures in the low 60s. A weak system looks to cross
over the area Tuesday into Wednesday for a round of light rain.
Beyond the middle of the week, there is uncertainty in the
pattern but generally, guidance indicates that a return to high
pressure and mild conditions is favored.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.AVIATION...
Southwesterly flow aloft becoming northwesterly this afternoon
as a frontal system leaves the area. A mixed bag of conditions
early this afternoon as a convergence zone continues over
Snohomish and King counties. Conditions maintaining MVFR/IFR
this afternoon and in areas within the convergence zone will
continue to see deteriorated conditions (likely PAE, SEA).
Conditions will see improvement later this afternoon with
ceilings lifting to VFR lasting into overnight. Southerly winds
will slowly shift to the north for terminals KSEA northward,
while areas south of KSEA will continue to see S/SW winds,
remaining around 8 to 12 knots. MVFR likely to return Saturday
morning for most areas.
KSEA...MVFR conditions this afternoon with S/SW 9 to 14 knots.
Will continue to see periodic gusts up to 20 knots this
afternoon, with winds easing past 00z. Winds will turn N/NE at
times throughout the afternoon due to a convergence zone near
the terminal that will start to dissipate by this evening.
Additionally, conditions will gradually return to VFR around
21z-00z and continue through the evening. MVFR conditions look
to return Saturday morning 12z-17z along with southerly winds.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.MARINE...
Strong onshore flow continues this evening behind a frontal
passage that occurred early this morning. Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect most of the interior waters except
Puget Sound, and the Central/Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca
where Gale Warnings remain in effect. Winds through the interior
waters are peaking now and will ease below thresholds this
evening.
Over the coastal waters, Small Craft Advisories continue through
mid-day Saturday. Winds will slowly ease overnight into Saturday
morning, but seas look to remain above 10 feet through mid-day
Saturday. Seas will remain choppy and locally-wind driven with
the dominant period being in the 8-10 second range.
A weak low pressure system will move through on Saturday, behind
which winds will turn offshore Saturday evening. Winds will
briefly be enhanced slightly in the Northern Inland Waters near
the San Juans and off the coast in the central and southern
coastal waters zones, with potential for wind gusts to approach
Small Craft criteria overnight into early Sunday morning.
Winds ease next week as high pressure builds back in from well
offshore. The next low pressure system look to move across the
area Tuesday night into Wednesday, but there remains some
uncertainty in timing as this is later than previously
forecast.
After Saturday, seas look to remain in the 5-8 ft range Sunday
through the first part of next week.
62
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Frost Advisory from midnight Saturday night to 8 AM PDT Sunday
for Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King
Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis
Counties-Middle Chehalis River Valley.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Saturday for Grays Harbor
Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Admiralty
Inlet-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape
Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters
From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Northern
Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 6 PM PDT
Saturday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion