Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
338
FXUS66 KSEW 290351
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
851 PM PDT Sat Mar 28 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Northwesterly flow aloft continues today with high clouds and an
otherwise pleasant day. Additional weather systems will begin to
move through the region tomorrow for rain, mountain snow and
potential convergence zone. Dry weather returns Monday and
Tuesday before a stronger system arrives Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Unsettled weather and precipitation chances linger
through the end of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The remainder of this afternoon should be very pleasant as
mostly sunny skies prevail. Area temperatures have been in the
mid to upper 50s. A weak trough will move through the region
Sunday for light lowland rain and mountain snow. Hi-res models
are suggestive of a post-frontal convergence zone in the
afternoon along the King and Snohomish County border, which will
progress south as westerly winds force through the Strait of
Juan de Fuca and shift surface winds to northerly through Puget
Sound. This convergence zone could sink as far south as Sea-Tac
and Tacoma as the northerly winds continue. Snow levels drop
below pass level tomorrow, leading to potential snow
accumulations of 4-6 inches at both major Cascade Passes.
Rain and snow taper off into Monday morning, with snow levels
dropping even further to around 500 feet or less. There could be
a brief period of time late Sunday night into early Monday
morning for snowflakes in the Cascade foothills and valleys, but
no meaningful accumulations are expected. Monday morning lows
will be at freezing or below. Expect a clear, but chillier
afternoon with highs only getting into the upper 40s to right
around 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Tuesday will also be dry and a few degrees warmer in the mid
50s. This slight increase in temperature will be in part due to
a relatively short period of offshore winds during the day.
Interestingly, minimum relative humidity values on Tuesday will
be much lower than what is typical for this time of year,
between 35% to 45%. The dry and mild conditions won`t linger
past Tuesday as another weather system is forecast to arrive
late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Snow levels will drop again
late Wednesday into Thursday for another round of mountain snow.
Both the Cascades and Olympics will see snow, and while the
amounts are subject to change between now and then, early
estimates range from around 6-8 inches at Hurricane Ridge, 3-6
inches at Snoqualmie Pass, and 6-9 inches at Stevens Pass. This
period of snow into Thursday will be monitored for headline
potential over the next several days.
The ridge rebuilds late Thursday into Friday over the offshore
waters. With western Washington remaining in the northwesterly
flow, slight chance PoPs linger in the forecast through the end
of the week. Extended range forecasts suggest more drying over
next weekend.
21
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR at the terminals this afternoon with high clouds passing
through. Expecting VFR conditions to prevail today. A cold front
has pushed through the area, expecting winds to shift W/SW with
for terminals behind the front. However, terminals within
central Puget Sound are expected to remain northerly due to a
convergence zone forming this evening as westerlies push through
the Strait of Juan de Fuca. A stronger system is expected to
move through on Sunday, with rain reaching the coast around 13Z
and interior terminals around 14-15Z. This system will be
accompanied by MVFR ceilings and increased winds around 8-12 kt.
Post-front, another convergence zone will likely develop, with
several models having an area of showers moving south into
southern King County over the interior terminals.
KSEA...VFR conditions expected today. The front has pushed through
the terminal, which will bring a brief period of SW winds starting
around 22/23Z. Winds are expected to shift back northerly this
evening after 02Z and continue through Sunday morning. Latest
guidance suggests southerly winds return as early as 13Z Sunday.
Southwesterly winds will increase Sunday afternoon to 8-10 kt.
Ceilings will gradually lower overnight to MVFR after 18Z with the
next system. Improvement to VFR possible Sunday evening. Several
models hint a convergence zone with showers/variable winds
approaching the terminal Sunday evening, which may create a
period of variable winds after 00Z Monday.
29/HPR
&&
.MARINE...
Weak high pressure will remain over the waters through early next
week. Today`s cold front has pushed through area waters, which will
lead to post-frontal westerlies through the Strait of Juan de Fuca.
A Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the Central Strait due to
increased confidence (70-80% chance) in seeing small craft winds
through tonight. There wasn`t enough confidence to issue an advisory
for the East Strait; however, at times small craft winds are
possible. High pressure will weaken slightly on Sunday as another
frontal system pushes across the waters. This system will bring
elevated winds and seas across the coastal waters and West Strait
starting Sunday afternoon. Advisories have been issued for the
coastal waters and western portion of the Strait. The central and
eastern portions may see small craft winds at times (30-50% chance).
Northwesterly winds will also increase across the northern interior
waters Sunday evening. Current probabilities are around 50-70% and
small craft winds are not looking to be widespread across the area.
The strongest winds will be confined near the international border.
High pressure will quickly rebuild behind the system. A stronger
system arrives on Wednesday with elevated winds and seas. Currently
there is a 60-80% chance of small craft winds for the coastal
waters, East Strait, Northern Interior Waters, and Admiralty Inlet.
Seas will build Sunday evening 8-12 ft then decrease below 10 ft by
Monday afternoon. Seas will rebuild on Wednesday to 10-13 ft before
decreasing below 10 ft late Wednesday night.
29
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding is expected in the next 7 days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Sunday for West
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM Sunday to 5 AM PDT Monday for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion