Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
189
FXUS66 KSEW 010939
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
139 AM PST Sun Nov 1 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will continue across western Washington through
Monday as an upper level ridge moves over the Pacific Northwest.
The first half of the week will largely remain dry across the
area, with chances of precipitation increasing the second half
of the week as a series of systems approaches the Pacific
Northwest. A brief break in the unsettled pattern is possible
Friday night into Saturday as another ridge moves over the
region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Latest satellite imagery shows widespread fog development across
the East Puget Sound Lowlands and Chehalis River Valley early
this morning. Fog is also starting to develop along Hood Canal
and expanding westward across the Southwest Interior as of 08Z.
Observations show that fog has become dense in spots, especially
along the I-5 corridor from Olympia southward to Chehalis, where
widespread visibilities of a quarter of a mile are being reported.
Fog will continue to expand across the area through the early
morning hours and will linger a little longer today, before
scattering between 18-21Z for some afternoon sun.
An upper level ridge will move into the region today and push
inland on Monday, maintaining dry conditions across western
Washington for the start of the week. Overnight lows will remain
cool, mainly dipping down into the 30s, and will bring areas of
additional frost development during the early morning hours. Ample
moisture in the low levels will also promote another round of
fog development across the western Washington on Monday morning.
Afternoon highs will be seasonable, mainly in the low to mid
50s both days.
A splitting system approaching the region Monday night into
Tuesday may bring some light precipitation to portions of the
coast and the Olympic Peninsula. The majority of western Washington
will remain dry, however, with temperatures warming a few degrees.
Morning lows will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s across the area,
with afternoon highs expected to be in the mid 50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Chances for precipitation will increase the second half of the
week as a series of systems looks to approach the Pacific Northwest.
At this time, a weak system looks to move across the area on
Wednesday, followed by a stronger system on Friday. The stronger
system on Friday will likely bring gusty winds and more widespread
lowland rain and mountain snow to the area. Discrepancy still
exists with the pattern heading into next weekend, but ensemble
clusters hint at a brief break in the parade of systems Friday
night into early Saturday as a ridge of high pressure temporarily
moves back over the region. The ridge looks to push inland
rather quickly however, which would open the door for additional
systems to move into the area by Saturday evening.
Temperatures will be near to just slightly above normal through
the period, with morning lows expected to be in the upper 30s
to upper 40s and afternoon highs expected to be in the mid to
upper 50s.
14
&&
.AVIATION...
High pressure will build over the terminals today into Monday. Low-
end MVFR stratus has filled in from Everett, down through Puget
Sound and into the south interior. The lowest visibilities have been
around Olympia, Hoquiam, and Arlington with visibilities down to a
quarter of a mile. The model guidance maintains ceilings lowering
down to LIFR conditions (both ceilings and visibilities) for the
previously mentioned areas covered by stratus by 14Z, and lasting
through 18-21Z. Skies will clear this afternoon and evening. Another
round of LIFR conditions is likely Monday for a majority of
terminals in the Puget Sound/south interior. Winds are calm this
morning/Monday morning, and will pick up to 3-5 kt this afternoon
from the north, and southeast this evening.
KSEA...Stratus currently over the terminal this morning with
ceilings just above 1,000 ft. Expectation remains that this will
lower down to LIFR criteria during the morning (14-18Z is where the
probabilities for fog and/or LIFR stratus peak). Skies will clear
going into the afternoon, and redevelopment of LIFR conditions is
likely again tonight/Monday morning. Northeast winds at around 5 kt
will decrease this morning before increasing again this afternoon,
switching to the southeast in the evening, and becoming calm again
overnight.
HPR
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure rebuilds over the coastal waters today with dry
conditions finishing the weekend over the waters. Couple patches of
fog may affect portions of the Puget Sound waters this morning. A
weak system will brush the coastal waters Monday into Tuesday with
the chance of showers. While winds will pick up in the outer coastal
waters (with winds gusting up to 20 kt), the main concern for the
first part of the week will be seas, as swells of 17 seconds
increase out of the southwest, and seas increasing to 8-11 ft going
into tonight/Monday. A small craft advisory was issued to cover the
threat, which will likely continue into Tuesday with seas returning
to 6-8 ft Wednesday.
The second half of the week is more active with trough dropping out
of Alaska, and a couple of systems likely to affect the waters
finishing the week into next weekend. Best chance of winds greater
than 20 kt is with a system Wednesday/Thursday, Friday, and this
weekend, affecting the coastal and interior waters. Seas will
increase going towards the end of the week, peaking Friday with
heights up to 15 to 17 ft at 17 seconds.
HPR
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for City of
Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap
County-Eastside-Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of
Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce
and Southern King Counties-Middle Chehalis River Valley-
Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Shoreline / Lynnwood /
South Everett Area.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Monday to 1 AM PST Tuesday for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion