Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
464
FXUS66 KSEW 201800
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1000 AM PST Thu Nov 20 2025
.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will allow much of the region to dry
out on Friday and Saturday, with chances for additional rain
over the northern interior. A stronger system will bring more
substantial chances for rain and mountain snow across western
Washington Sunday into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Showers continue to taper
of this morning, with a few lingering showers along the Olympic
Peninsula. Otherwise, primarily dry weather this afternoon with
additional clearing. No major forecast updates, previous
discussion below.
As high pressure builds into the region later today,
temperatures will warm up a few degrees with highs reaching the
low to mid 50s with plenty of sun breaks. Along the Pacific
Coast, large long-period swells will arrive today, with
potential for localized beach erosion and significant wave run-
up. While conditions are expected to remain below High Surf
thresholds, beachgoers are encouraged to exercise caution and
check the latest weather and water conditions, and conditions
across the coastal waters will continue to be closely monitored.
The high pressure ridge will shift southward on Friday as the
jet stream strengthens over British Columbia. This will bring
renewed chances for rain across the northwestern portions of the
Olympic Peninsula and along the Canadian border, with dry and
cloudy conditions elsewhere. Temperatures will remain steady
with most lowland areas seeing highs in the lower 50s.
Saturday will bring more of the same, with light rainfall across
much of the region as the upper level jet shifts slightly to the
south. With snow levels lifting to 5000-6000 feet in the warm
sector of an approaching frontal system, snow accumulations will
be confined to the higher peaks of the mountains. Temperatures
will be mild, in the mid to upper 50s for much of the lowlands.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A frontal system
is on track to dig into western Washington Saturday night into
Sunday, bringing in ample lowland rain and mountain snow
alongside breezy southerly winds. The front will push east of
the Cascades by Sunday afternoon, clearing up rainfall over the
lowlands with lingering showers over the mountains. The lowlands
will see roughly half an inch to an inch of rain with this
system, with liquid amounts up to 2 to 3 inches over higher
terrain. Snow levels will drop to 3500-4500 feet behind the
front, with significant snow accumulations possible generally
above 4000 feet. Despite some uncertainty over snowfall amounts,
the Cascade Passes will likely see at least a few inches of
snow accumulation through Sunday night.
A weak shortwave trough will follow closely behind on Monday,
maintaining widespread showers that will add up to an inch or
two to snow totals over the mountains. Temperatures will cool
off several degrees, with most lowland locations barely reaching
50 degrees.
Forecast confidence decreases into the middle of next week, with
ensembles showing potential for an upper level ridge to build
over the Pacific Northwest. However, operational forecast models
show continued chances for lowland rain and mountain snow into
Wednesday and Thursday. Snow levels may drop as low as 1500-2000
feet by the middle of next week, but a large degree of
uncertainty remains in the forecast. Conditions that may impact
holiday travel will continue to be closely monitored.
15
&&
.AVIATION...Majority of terminals VFR this morning, with a couple
terminals (KPWT, KBLI and KPAE) seeing lowered ceilings. Some light
showers along the coast this morning continuing throughout the day.
Inland terminals expected to remain dry for the rest of today.
Expecting improvement into VFR late this morning into early
afternoon. Otherwise, expecting VFR to prevail today. Ceilings will
drop again overnight to MVFR, and terminals along southern Puget
Sound and Kitsap Peninsula will likely see conditions lower to
IFR/LIFR due to fog.
KSEA...VFR this morning at the terminal and will prevail for the
rest of the day. Conditions will lower to MVFR overnight after 10z
Friday, with improvement expected after 18z-19z. Southwesterly winds
5-7 kt, becoming southeasterly this evening at 4-5 kt.
29
&&
.MARINE...The main concern for Thursday remains 15-18 ft seas at 15
seconds (with a west swell) over the coastal waters, west Strait of
Juan de Fuca, and the Grays Harbor bar - thus the small craft
advisory will continue in these areas through Friday. A stronger
frontal system will impact the waters this weekend, with seas 10-14
ft through the weekend, and a medium chance of wind gusts above 20
kt in the coastal waters. There is also a medium chance for gale
gusts in the Strait of Juan de Fuca Sunday into Monday. Seas are
expected to remain above 10 ft through Monday evening, before
dropping back down to 6-8 ft, and further down to 5-6 ft midweek.
HPR
&&
.HYDROLOGY...At this time, no flooding is forecast over the
next 7 days. Stronger weather systems moving into the region
early next week could bring periods of heavier rain and mountain
snow, and will be the next time frame to watch with respect to
hydrologic concerns.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until noon PST Friday for Grays Harbor
Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for East
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion