Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
603
FXUS66 KSEW 092243
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
243 PM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Multiple Pacific storms will impact western
Washington this week and weekend for gusty winds, lowland rain
and high elevation mountain snow. Large swells will reach the
coast on Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...Our next Pacific
frontal system is upon us with rain spreading inland this
afternoon. The air mass is slightly unstable with a chance of
thunderstorms across SW WA (mainly this afternoon and evening).
Expect windy conditions along the coast and North interior with
south winds gusting to 30-35 MPH.
Another deep low spins over the NE Pacific on Tuesday and
Wednesday for another round of gusty winds, lowland rain and
high elevation snow. Winds will be strongest along the coast and
North Interior with south/southeast wind gusts to 40-50 MPH -
Wind Advisories are in effect. Winds will stay gusty through
Wednesday afternoon then ease Wednesday night. In addition,
minor coastal flooding is possible around the time of high tide
Wednesday morning for the San Juans and western Whatcom county.
33
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A trio of strong Pacific
systems are poised to impact Western WA Friday through Sunday.
The main impact will again be strong winds, especially over the
coast where gusts may exceed 50 MPH. We may also see gusty winds
to 30-40 MPH in the interior as well. These systems will also
generate large swells that will reach the WA coast Friday with
seas over 20 ft possible. Rainfall will be heavy at times along
the coast and over the Olympics. This may bring the Skokomish
River close to minor flood stage. We are also closely monitoring
the storm tide predictions as well as a few locations may see
minor coastal flooding on Saturday. The last system moves in on
Sunday - more wind and rain - with the weather easing moving
into Sunday night and Monday. 33
&&
.AVIATION...A frontal system will continue to move across the
terminals, with widespread rain increasing. VFR ceilings will
continue through the afternoon and evening, before decreasing to
MVFR later this evening and overnight. Reduced visibilities
have been observed with heavier pockets of rain down to to 3-5
mi. Pockets of IFR/LIFR are expected in the mountains. Overnight
the ceilings are expected to lift up to low-end VFR, with an
additional front passing through late Tuesday with more rain and
lowering ceilings/visibilities back down to MVFR. The threat of
thunder remains less than 20% with activity this
evening/Tuesday. Winds will generally remain out of the
southeast or southwest, with the strongest winds this
evening/Tuesday morning, and again Tuesday evening. Gusts up to
20-30 kt with higher gusts to 35 kt along the coasts.
KSEA...Rain arriving this afternoon, with ceilings lowering to MVFR
shortly after 00Z. Brief increase to VFR appears likely after 06Z
before the next round of rain arrives Tuesday morning (after 15Z),
then conditions will drop back down to MVFR. Heavier rain rates may
drop visibilities down to 3-5 mi. Southeast to southwest winds with
the strongest winds this evening, and Tuesday afternoon/evening
(gusts up to 20-25 kt).
HPR
&&
.MARINE...A series of frontal systems will impact the waters
through the week. Widespread rain will pass over the waters at
times, with rates potentially becoming heavy enough to drop
visibilities significantly for mariners. There is a 20% chance
of thunder for portions of the coastal waters with the front
moving through this evening, and again Tuesday afternoon into
Wednesday.
Widespread gusty southerly winds will continue for much of the week
across the majority of the waters. Winds with the front moving
through Monday afternoon will remain in the 20 to 30 kt range for
the coastal waters and west Strait of Juan de Fuca, and Puget Sound
through the Northern Inland Waters (including the east Strait of
Juan de Fuca and Admiralty Inlet). A stronger system on Tuesday into
Wednesday will produce widespread and frequent gale force gusts for
the coastal waters and east strait. Wind gusts will likely remain
above 20 kt through Friday with another stronger system producing
additional gale gusts for the coastal waters and east Strait of Juan
de Fuca, with a similar system on Saturday into Sunday. Models have
winds finally decreasing below 20 kt early next week.
Seas: 10-12 ft tonight through Tuesday, increasing to 17 to 19 ft
late Tuesday into Thursday before decreasing to 10 to 14 ft
Thursday. Models have a significant push up to 20 to 23 ft Friday
into the weekend with seas decreasing on Monday back down to 10 to
14 ft.
HPR
&&
.HYDROLOGY...River flooding is not expected through Thursday.
Atmospheric river hanging up over the Olympics Friday into
Saturday. Current rainfall forecast for the South Slopes of the
Olympics in the 3 to 4.5 inch range. Snow levels are not
exceeding high, 5000 to 6500 feet, but add in the additional
rainfall leading up to the event this amount of rain will bring
a flooding threat to the Skokomish River at the end of the week.
River flooding not expected on the remainder of the rivers in
the area Friday through Sunday. Felton
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM Tuesday to 7 PM PST Wednesday for
Grays Harbor County Coast-Island County-Lowlands of
Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-
Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Northern Washington
Coast-San Juan County.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Wednesday for Admiralty
Inlet-Grays Harbor Bar-Northern Inland Waters Including
The San Juan Islands-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 4 PM PST Wednesday for Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out
10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for Puget Sound
and Hood Canal.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion