Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
554
FXUS66 KSEW 290936
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
236 AM PDT Wed Jul 29 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and steadily warmer conditions develop across Western
Washington today through Friday as high pressure builds over the
region. The next disturbance shifts over the area late Friday
through Saturday, bringing cooler and cloudy conditions along
with rain chances. High pressure returns early next week,
bringing back dry and warmer conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Dry and steadily warmer temperatures will continue across
western Washington through the next several days as low pressure
remains off the B.C. coast and gradually rising heights across
the region. Modest onshore flow continues in the lower levels of
the atmosphere each of these days, maintaining some degree of
clouds each morning that give way to mostly sunny skies in the
afternoon. Temperatures through the interior climb through into
the 70s today and tomorrow, with cool nights limiting the
HeatRisk to minor levels. Even with the warmest day of the week
on Friday, as temperatures reach the lower 80s, will maintain
only a minor risk of heat-releated illness.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ensemble guidance continues to favor a shift in the pattern late
Friday into Saturday across the region, as the next upper low
shifts inland. This will usher the arrival of a more solid
cloud deck, cooler temperatures, and even some rainfall chances.
These rain chances will be highest along the coast and in the
Olympics, but a potential Puget Sound Convergence Zone behind
the system will also be another focus for shower chances. While
lightning chances remain generally low (10-15%), a thunderstorm
or two can`t be ruled out across the northern portions of the
area. This will be another short break, however, with ensemble
guidance continuing to favor the return of warmer and dry
conditions again for the first part of next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Southwest flow aloft throughout the period. At this
hour, mostly VFR is observed across area terminals. However, onshore
flow will be conducive for the development of marine stratus across
W WA as the morning progress. Spatial coverage mostly favors the
coast, Olympic Peninsula and SW interior but a 25-30% chance for
MVFR cigs is expressed for Puget Sound terminals (KSEA, KBFI & KPAE)
between roughly 14-17z. Any remaining stratus will scatter by 20-22z
with VFR expected into the afternoon and evening. An additional
round of low stratus expected again early Thursday morning.
KSEA...VFR ceilings so far this morning. LAMP guidance showing a 25-
30% chance of a brief period of ceilings less than 3000 feet around
14-16z. Otherwise, confidence leans towards VFR for most of the day
and evening. Surface winds are forecast to range between the W-NW
today, light this morning before increasing between 5-10 kt during
the afternoon.
41
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will return to area waters Wednesday through
Friday. As a result, low-level onshore flow will become a
recurrence. A SCA has been issued for the central/eastern Strait
of Juan de Fuca Wednesday evening through early Thursday
morning due to frequent gusts meeting criteria. The next
disturbance will reach the waters Friday night into Saturday
with the potential for more headlines. Seas over the coastal
waters are expected to remain in the 4 to 6 foot range into
early next week.
41
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Drier and warmer conditions return starting today and continuing
through Friday. Expect minimum humidity values to reach around
30 percent Friday afternoon. However, low-level flow remains
onshore through the week to provide for good to excellent
overnight recoveries, and this looks to be a short-lived trend
as the pattern shifts back to cooler and cloudier conditions for
the weekend.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 AM PDT
Thursday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion