Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
961
FXUS66 KSEW 052206
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
206 PM PST Thu Mar 5 2026
.SYNOPSIS....A warm front will clip the area tonight and Friday
for light precipitation. A cold front will stall over western
Washington on Sunday. A cold and wet pattern will set up next
week for lower snow levels and periods of heavy mountain snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...We remain under
onshore flow today with lingering light showers in the interior
and Cascades. Rain will increase in coverage overnight and into
Friday as a warm front moves in. The warmer air mass will bring
higher snow levels around 5,000 ft. We`ll sit in the warm sector
on Saturday while high pressure nudges inland. Expect highs in
the lower to mid 50s with light precipitation (mainly coast and
north part). 33
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A cold front will stall
over western WA on Sunday with strong westerly flow aloft. Snow
levels will lower below the passes Sunday night with accumulating
snow possible at both Stevens and Snoqualmie Pass.
The weather pattern is cold and wet moving through early next
week with low snow levels. Strong, moist, westerly flow will
pound the mountains with potential for several feet of snow.
Rates increase on Wednesday which could make travel over the
mountains difficult. Across the lowlands, with low snow levels,
there is a rain/snow mix in the forecast Mon-Thu. The low level
flow will remain onshore, though, which will help temperatures
mostly stay above freezing and thus limit impacts. Snow levels
will be rising on Wed and Thu and any snow would mostly affect
areas close to the mountains. 33
&&
.AVIATION...Brief break in the widespread precipitation
continues this afternoon. Isolated showers continue to move over
portions of the Cascades and the coast, but will remain light
through the afternoon. Ceilings this afternoon are trending
towards VFR (may be a couple of MVFR pockets lingering). Winds
this afternoon are light out of the southeast/southwest at 4-8
kt (northwest from KPAE into the Strait of Juan de Fuca with
onshore flow). A warm front is on track to bring in widespread
stratiform precipitation tonight/Friday. Probabilities are
elevated for lower-end MVFR/IFR conditions during the day
Friday, especially as moisture advection increases into the
region. Winds will also become gusty out of the southwest
tonight/Friday with sustained winds 8-12 kt, and a few gusts to
20 kt.
KSEA...VFR will continue through late tonight. Variable winds will
become southeast to south 4-8 kt. Rain chances increase after 07Z
Friday morning. Reduced visibilities/ceilings are expected -
probabilities favor lower-end MVFR early Friday morning, trending
towards IFR during the day. Gusty winds will pick up out of the
southwest 8-12 kt gusting to 20 kt on Friday.
HPR
&&
.MARINE...Seas this afternoon continue to remain elevated at 10
ft behind a frontal system that passed through yesterday. The
small craft advisory will continue for the coastal waters and
Grays Harbor Bar through the evening. Another warm front will
swing through tonight into Friday with widespread stratiform
precipitation. Reduced visibilities due to heavier rain/mist are
likely at times. The flow will continue to remain southwesterly
tonight into Friday, with a series of troughs expected to pass
through the waters later this weekend into next week. This will
largely keep the pattern onshore through the forecast period.
The next likelihood of significant winds for small craft will
come Sunday into Monday, with the chance of gale force gusts in
the Strait of Juan de Fuca. This will keep the pattern active
going through next week.
Seas will decrease tonight down to 6-7 ft into Friday. The next
increase comes with the Sunday system, with pushes up to 9-11 ft
Sunday into next week.
HPR
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Heavy precipitation over the Olympics will force
rises on the Skokomish River with the potential for flooding mid
to late next week. No other river flooding is expected over the
next 7 days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion