Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
820
FXUS66 KSEW 110550
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
950 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will lift north into British Columbia
tonight, while a cold front stalls offshore Wednesday and into
Thursday. Additional weather systems will move through Friday
through Sunday for more lowland rain and gusty winds. After a
brief break Monday, another front will arrive on Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Western WA remains under strong and moist SW flow with rain and
high elevation snow across the region. The warm front will lift
north into B.C tonight and the interior will see a break in the
precipitation. Wetter conditions will remain along the coast
and Olympics through Wednesday as the cold front stalls
offshore. Wednesday will be mild in the warm sector with
temperatures in the 60s.
Several weather headlines are in place with the main impact
being strong winds along the coast and North Interior. Expect
south winds of 20 to 30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. Winds will
ease Wednesday afternoon. In addition, there`s potential for
large waves crashing along the coast leading to a High Surf
Advisory. Minor coastal flooding is also possible near Wednesday
morning`s high tide in the San Juans and western Whatcom County.
Lastly, due to heavy precipitation, the Skokomish River in Mason
County is seeing sharp rises with Minor flooding possible.
The cold front will continue to stall and weaken offshore moving
into Thursday. The coast and Olympics may see periods of light
rain but the interior and Cascades will see a brief break.
There`s more active weather starting Thursday night. 33
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
From Thursday night into Friday, there`s another strong Pacific
storm system moving in for more lowland rain, high elevation
mountain snow, and gusty winds. Winds will be the strongest
along the coast where the probability of seeing gusts of 50 MPH
is 70-80 percent. It will be windy in the interior as well with
gusts to 30-40 MPH. This system will weaken as it moves inland
on Saturday. We will then see a second system track through on
Sunday for more wind and rain. Additional rainfall will keep the
Skokomish River running high with the possibility of river
flooding. These systems will generate large waves with the
potential for High Surf and beach erosion along the Pacific
coast. Minor coastal flooding will also need to monitored around
the time of high tides across the Salish Sea.
Moving forward, there appears to be a brief break in the
pattern on Monday. By Tuesday we see more breezy winds and rain
as the next front moves in. 33
&&
.AVIATION...
The front continues to lift north across the region, bringing
the steadiest precipitation mostly north of a KNUW-KAWO line and
just a few lingering showers elsewhere. Expect ceilings to
remain VFR with some patches of clearing allowing some low
clouds to develop in places like KPWT and KOLM south through
KCLS. Otherwise, breezy southerly surface winds through
Wednesday morning with continued VFR ceilings. Winds across the
northern terminals including KBLI likely to remain gusty to
25-30 kt into much of Wednesday.
KSEA...VFR conditions tonight with showers mostly pushing north
and west of the terminal area. Southerly winds around 10 kt
continue into Wednesday morning, with continued VFR conditions.
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will continue to increase over the area waters
this afternoon, peaking this evening and remaining elevated
throughout the overnight hours. A Gale Warning remains in effect
for the coastal waters until Wednesday evening as these wind
speeds persist. A Gale Warning is also in effect for the East
Strait of Juan De Fuca, along with the Northern Inland Waters.
Elsewhere, A Small Craft Advisory will continue for Admiralty
Inlet and the West Entrance of the Strait until Wednesday
evening when winds will start to ease across the whole region.
Seas this afternoon generally around 16 to 18 feet this
afternoon, remaining high through Wednesday morning. Seas will
ease towards more of a 12 to 14 feet on Thursday.
Another strong low pressure system will start to move towards
the coastal waters late Thursday night into Friday, bringing
stronger winds and higher waves. Latest guidance still suggests
a 60-70% chance of storm force wind gusts over the coastal
waters. Winds may ease slightly Friday night before another
round of strong winds arrives on the coastal waters, with a
30-40% chance of storm force gusts over the waters. Winds will
slowly ease late night Sunday as these systems move away from
the area.
Additionally, guidance suggests building large waves over the
coast, generally above 20 feet starting on Friday afternoon.
GEFS and ECMWF probabilities continuously has shown a 20-30%
chance of seas above 25 feet heading into late Friday into early
Saturday morning. Subtle shifts in the low pressure may change
waves and where the largest waves generate, with seas nearing 30
ft not out of the equation, especially near the southern
portions of the waters.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Steady rain throughout the day and evening over the
Olympic basin contributed to a rapid rise on the Skokomish River
near Potlatch, prompting an upgrade to a river flood warning. 24
hour precipitation totals show that the area has received between 4
and 4.5 inches of rain. The river has been observed at 16.76 feet
and will continue rising over the next several hours as the rain
begins to taper off. The river and associated forecast will continue
to be monitored throughout the night.
River flooding not expected on the other rivers in the area in
the next 7 days. 33/21
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST Wednesday for Grays Harbor County
Coast-Island County-Lowlands of Western Skagit and
Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western
Whatcom County-Northern Washington Coast-San Juan County.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM PST Wednesday for
Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-San Juan County.
High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Grays Harbor
County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST Wednesday for Admiralty
Inlet-Grays Harbor Bar-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait
Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 7 PM PST Wednesday for Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out
10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters
Including The San Juan Islands.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion