Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
795
FXUS66 KSEW 070957
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
157 AM PST Wed Jan 7 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Unsettled conditions continue through Thursday as
another frontal system brings additional precipitation,
including heavier mountain snowfall at times. An upper ridge
begins to build into the Pacific Northwest on Friday. Another
frontal system will move into the area over the weekend into
early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Showers continue early this
morning across Western Washington, particularly over the Olympic
Peninsula, as well as in a convergence zone along the
Snohomish/King County border. 1 to 2 hour snowfall rates have
been observed early this morning over Stevens Pass within the
convergence zone. Scattered showers will become more widespread
into the morning hours as another impulse approaches Western
Washington. The heaviest precipitation is expected to move
through between 7 AM to 1 PM. Due to the convective nature of
this activity, and cooler temperatures aloft, a brief rain/snow
mix cannot be ruled out for the majority of lowlands in Western
Washington. However, any snowfall accumulation is expected to
remain generally above 1000-1500 feet through today. With that
said, minor accumulations are likely at times in the vicinity of
Lake Crescent, particularly within the band of heavier
precipitation this morning. HREF/REFS probabilities of 2" of
snow along the US-101 corridor (from Lake Crescent to the
intersection with Route 113) are greater than 70% through this
evening. Given the temperature profile, and likelihood of
convective showers, have issued a Winter Weather Advisory for
this localized region. Otherwise, additional moderate to heavy
snowfall will continue for the Cascade Passes through today. In
addition to the precipitation, breezy south winds are expected
within the heavier showers, with gusts peaking between 20 to 35
MPH for most areas.
Unsettled conditions with showers will continue tonight through
Thursday. Snow levels will lower towards 700 to 1000 feet by
early Thursday morning, resulting in the potential of rain/snow
mix in heavier showers. Light snow accumulations will need to be
monitored for the Cascade Valleys Thursday morning.
Accumulating snowfall will continue for the Cascade Passes into
late Thursday before precipitation begins to taper off. In
total, an additional 1 to 2 feet is expected for the Cascade
Passes.
An upper level ridge begins to build into the Pacific Northwest
on Friday, resulting in the return of drier conditions for
Friday afternoon. Temperatures will remain cooler both Wednesday
and Thursday with highs in the low to mid 40s, before some
warming into Friday with highs in the upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...Dry conditions will
continue into Friday night with the upper ridge overhead. A
frontal system will move onshore across the Olympic Peninsula on
Saturday, and slowly progress eastwards across Western
Washington on Sunday for additional precipitation chances.
Uncertainty begins to increase in ensembles Monday into Tuesday
in regards to the extent and duration of precipitation early
next week. However, a frontal system is forecast to draped over
British Columbia, resulting in continued precipitation potential.
Have kept NBM POPs at this time. Temperatures will warm above
average early next week with the upper ridging influence, with
highs into the low to mid 50s. JD
&&
.AVIATION...Couple pockets of post-front convergence showers
continue this morning along the King/Snohomish County border
(lower MVFR ceilings in this area, otherwise generally VFR
outside of this area). Another trough/frontal system will pass
through today. Expect SW flow aloft ahead of the front, turning
back to W/NW. Scattered showers will continue at times over and
around terminals today into Thursday. There is a 20% chance of
thunder along the Pacific coast this afternoon (KHQM up to
KUIL). MVFR is likely to redevelop across most terminals past
12Z this morning (30-50% chance of IFR cigs/vis due to wider
band of showers passing through 15Z-21Z). MVFR is likely to
remain over most interior terminals through Thursday (best
chance for VFR improvements late this evening is along the
coast/south interior). Winds today/tomorrow SW at 6-10 kt
(becoming W/NW in the Strait of Juan de Fuca & Pacific Coast
areas late tonight). Sporadic gusts to 20 kt expected at times
this morning, with 15Z-21Z seeing the strongest winds with the
shower activity up to 25 kt.
KSEA...MVFR ceilings this morning likely continuing through the TAF
period. There is a 30-50% chance of IFR cigs/vis with the next
front/showers moving through. Wind gusts also will pick up at this
time out of the SW 10-15 kt gusting to 25 kt (10% chance of up to 30
kt). Outside of this window, few gusts up to 20 kt will continue
through the evening. Rain showers continue through rest of
today/Thursday with MVFR conditions expected to continue into
Thursday.
HPR
&&
.MARINE...Few spots remain windy this morning behind a frontal
system that pushed through yesterday (Strait of Juan de Fuca and
coastal waters are observing west winds with gusts over 20 kt
at times). The next frontal system/trough will push through
today. Another round of breezy south winds are likely in the
interior waters (from Puget Sound up to the Northern Inland
areas - new small craft advisory was issued late this morning
through the evening). Westerly winds behind the front will
likely exceed 20-25 kt in the coastal waters/Strait of Juan de
Fuca later tonight/Thursday. Scattered showers will pass over
the waters at times today/Thursday (possible reduced
visibilities at times). There is a 20% chance of thunder for the
waters closest to the Pacific Coast this afternoon. Another
front will move through Friday/Saturday with winds clipping the
coastal waters.
Seas will build up to 18-22 ft today through Thursday, decreasing to
10-12 ft Friday before building back up briefly to 12-15 ft Saturday
(then back to 10-12 ft Sunday through early next week).
HPR
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Showers will continue at times through Thursday,
resulting in an additional 1 to 2 inches of QPF for the
Olympics and Cascades. However, snow levels will remain lower
during this period, ranging 1000 to 2500 feet. For this reason,
the Skokomish River in Mason County is expected to remain below
flood stage, but will continue to be monitored.
For the remainder of area rivers, no flooding is expected over the
next 7 days. JD
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM PST this morning for
Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-San Juan County.
Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST Thursday for Cascades of
Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and
Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County-
Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties.
Flood Watch through late tonight for Foothills of the Western
and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Middle Chehalis River
Valley-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Southern
Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for Lake
Crescent Area Including US 101.
High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM PST
Thursday for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern
Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar-
West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM PST this morning for Central
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for
Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan
De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
Islands.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM PST this
afternoon for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including
The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion