Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
381
FXUS66 KSEW 031725
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
925 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
.SYNOPSIS...A weak system will brush the region today. The
weather pattern becomes more active starting Wednesday as a
series of systems brings lowland rain, high elevation snow,
gusty winds, and the potential for high surf to western
Washington. A brief break in the unsettled weather is possible
Friday night into Saturday, before additional systems arrive
late in the weekend into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A weak system brushing
the region will bring spotty light showers to western
Washington through the morning hours, although not much in the
way of rain will reach the surface due to continued drier
conditions in the low levels. Conditions dry out by this
afternoon as shower coverage decreases. Afternoon highs will be
a few degrees warmer today than yesterday, with temperatures
expected to top out in the mid 50s to low 60s. Clearing skies
this evening and the reintroduction of some moisture in the low
levels will bring back the potential for fog development across
the area by early Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the mid
30s to low 40s, with a few spots across the South Sound
approaching freezing.
The weather pattern becomes more active starting Wednesday as
the first in a series of systems moves across western Washington.
This system will bring lowland rain, high elevation snow, and
gusty winds to the area. More details on each hazard follows
below:
Rain: The bulk of the moisture with this system will be focused
over the Olympic Peninsula and the North Cascades. Rainfall
amounts for the Pacific Coast are expected to range between a
quarter of an inch to half an inch. Many spots across the
interior lowlands will get rain shadowed, with only a few
hundredths to a tenth of an inch of rain expected.
Mountain Snow: Snow levels generally be hovering between 5000-
6000 ft will bring a few inches of snow to the higher peaks of
the Olympics and North Cascades. Most likely snow amounts across
the higher terrain are between 1-3 inches, with some locally
higher amounts possible near the higher peaks like Mt Baker.
Gusty Winds: Winds will increase as this system approaches the
region, with southerly winds expected to pick up along the coast
during the afternoon hours and increasing across the interior
during the evening hours. Winds will be strongest along the Pacific
Coast, where wind gusts between 25-35 mph will be possible. Areas
across the interior will likely see wind gusts to 25 mph.
Winds will ease and precipitation will taper overnight into
Thursday, which will bring a quick break in between systems.
Afternoon highs on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...A stronger system
will move into western Washington Thursday night into Friday,
bringing another round of gusty winds, lowland rain, high
elevation snow, and the potential for high surf along the
Pacific Coast. The bulk of the moisture with this system will
again remain aimed at the Olympic Peninsula and the
North/Central Cascades. Snow levels around 5000 ft will climb to
5500-7000 ft through the day on Friday and will support high
elevation snow across the Olympics and Cascades, with 1-2 inches
of rain expected in the lower mountain elevations. The highest
rainfall amounts across the lowlands will be along the North
Coast, where 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected into Saturday
morning. Many areas across the interior lowlands will be rain
shadowed again and generally look to receive a couple tenths of
an inch of rain. Winds will become gusty as the system
approaches, with probabilistic guidance indicating a 50% chance
of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph along the Pacific Coast and a
40-50% chance of wind gusts exceeding 40 mph for areas from
Whidbey Island northward. Increasing potential for high surf
conditions developing along the Pacific coast could bring risks
for beach erosion and hazardous conditions along beaches and
jetties.
Ensemble clusters continue to hint at a brief break in the
unsettled weather pattern early Saturday as a transient ridge
of high pressure moves back over the region. Discrepancies
remain in regards to the amplitude of the ridge at this time,
however, it does look to aid in directing the bulk of the moisture
of the next system further north into British Columbia. Even
though the bulk of the moisture will be focused to the north of
the border, the North Coast and the North Cascades could still
be clipped by this system.
The ridge does look to move inland rather quickly which would
open the door for a wet system to move into the area Saturday
night into Sunday. The pattern will remain active heading into
early next week as additional systems look to arrive into the
region.
14
&&
.AVIATION...A thick high cloud layer across the Pacific
Northwest will keep most areas with VFR conditions through the
majority of the TAF period. There remains some localized areas
of fog this morning across portions of the South Sound, but
should lift and mix out this morning. Radar shows some scattered
showers but most of this won`t make it to the ground. Cloud
coverage decreases this evening/overnight, which will open up
another window for fog or low stratus Wednesday morning. Best
chances for said conditions to develop are from the Kitsap to
the south interior from 12-15Z through 18-20Z. Winds will remain
light out of the north/northeast around 5 kt. Winds will start
to pick up Wednesday morning at the end of the TAF period as a
frontal system beings to approach the area.
KSEA...VFR conditions expected for Tuesday with high clouds,
clearing this evening. This will open up the potential for fog early
Wednesday morning, with a 25-30% chc of low ceilings/fog btwn 13-17Z
Wed. Winds remaining out of the north/northeast at around 5 kt.
HPR/62
&&
.MARINE...A stationary front remains offshore with a low
pressure system passing by to the south into California. Seas
remain around 8-11 ft at around 15 seconds over the coastal
waters this morning. Seas will be slow to ease but should reach
around 6-8 ft across the area tonight. The Small Craft Advisory
will continue through this afternoon for the outer coastal
waters. The weather then becomes more active with a series of
systems moving through the region beginning mid week and
continuing this weekend into early next week. The first frontal
system moves through on Tuesday, with high likelihood (60-90%
chc) for small craft winds over the coastal waters. Friday`s
system will be stronger, with both wind and sea concerns.
Majority of the waters will hazardous winds for small craft. The
inner coast and east Strait of Juan de Fuca have a 35% chance
of gusts reaching gale force. Seas will build Thursday into
Friday, peaking at 15 to 18 ft with another long period swell
train. The Saturday/Sunday, and Monday/Tuesday systems has
similar probabilities for small craft and gale gusts to the
Friday system. Seas as a result will likely remain over 10 ft
going into the weekend/early next week (12-15 ft).
HPR/62
&&
.HYDROLOGY...River flooding is not expected through the next
seven days. However, a series of increasingly wet weather
systems will bring rain (and high mountain snow) to the region
this week, especially from Friday onward. While current
forecasts are not expected to cause flooding, this will begin to
saturate soils and raise base flows that could bring a concern
with subsequent storms systems.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion