Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
985
FXUS66 KSEW 050932
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
232 AM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak ridge of high pressure will bring warmer and drier
conditions to Western Washington into Tuesday. A weak frontal
system will arrive on Wednesday with cooler temperatures and a
little rain for parts of the area. Onshore flow will keep
temperatures near normal for the second half of the week with
areas of night and morning clouds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak upper level ridge will begin to build into the region
today. Light onshore flow continues near the surface. After
areas of morning clouds, the afternoon will feature mostly sunny
skies with temperatures bouncing back to near seasonal averages
for the first time in more than a week. A weak upper ridge
axis will shift inland early Monday. With modest height rises
and continued light onshore flow, this will allow interior
temperatures to rise a few more degrees with areas from Seattle
metro southward crossing the 80 degree threshold. The warming
trend will be short with onshore flow ramping up Monday night
ahead of a weak front approaching offshore. Tuesday will likely
remain cloudy along the coast, but interior areas should see
some afternoon sun along with several degrees of cooling.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A weak frontal system will drag onshore Tuesday night into
Wednesday. The bulk of the light rainfall with this system will
likely fall on the Olympic Peninsula and interior areas from
around Everett northward. We may get a weak convergence zone
Wednesday afternoon as well.
Looking further ahead into the second half of the week, the best
description I can come up with is...seasonal. Western Washington
will remain sandwiched between strong upper ridging over the
Desert Southwest and anomalous upper troughing over British
Columbia. This essentially keeps us in a persistent onshore flow
pattern with 500 millibar heights that never really get much
above the mid to upper 570s decameters. So, with that said, one
would typically expect varying amounts of night and morning
clouds, afternoon sun, and temperatures hovering within 2 to 4
degrees of normal for early July.
27
&&
.AVIATION...
Majority of ceilings VFR early this morning. Guidance still
suggesting the possibility of MVFR cigs returning Sunday morning.
Currently, highest confidence is with coastal terminals, where
probabilities are between 50-60% after 10z. As for other terminals,
there is a 20-30% chance of MVFR cigs after 12z. Shall MVFR cigs
develop, widespread VFR conditions expected in the afternoon after
16z-18z. Increasing chances for MVFR cigs return Monday morning,
with highest confidence (60-80% chance) along the coast, with a 50%
chance of IFR cigs. Interior terminals have a 20-40% chance of MVFR
cigs. Generally light NE to variable winds early this morning,
turning WNW in the afternoon to 5-12 kt. Winds may get somewhat
breezy Sunday evening along Puget Sound, with a few gusts to 15 kt
possible.
KSEA...VFR cigs early this morning. Latest guidance suggests there
is a slight chance (30%) for MVFR cigs between 12z-16z. Otherwise,
VFR conditions in the afternoon/evening. Slight chance (20%) for
MVFR cigs Monday morning. NE winds have remained slightly elevated
this morning around 10-13 kt. Winds will shift NNW in the afternoon
after 19z around 8-10 kt. NE winds in the evening 8-10 kt,
decreasing to 5 kt or less after 09z. May see a few gusts to 15 kt
Sunday evening between 02-06z.
29
&&
.MARINE...
A rather stagnant weather pattern will continue for Washiington`s
waters through the forecast period. Broad high pressure over the
northeast Pacific and lower pressure inland will maintain a pattern
of onshore flow. This will result in increased westerly winds
through the Strait of Juan de Fuca each evening, some having the
potential to reach advisory criteria. Sunday`s westerlies are
expected to remain advisory thresholds, as current probabilities
rest at 20% or less. Starting Monday, guidance has moderate to high
chances (50-95%) for winds through the Strait of Juan de Fuca
reaching small craft advisory thresholds, possibly warranting
additional headlines throughout the week. Moreover, a combination of
winds and seas will small craft advisory conditions to the coastal
waters this evening. A weak front will move over the waters Tuesday
evening/Wednesday morning. This will slightly weaken high pressure
over the waters, but it is expected to quickly rebuild behind the
front.
29
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Low-level onshore flow will continue through the week. This
will keep good overnight relative humidity recoveries in the
forecast and help subdue fire weather concerns despite somewhat
warmer temperatures. Another front in the middle of the week
will bring a chance of rain to the area keeping fire weather
concerns at a minimum.
We already have small fires cropping up in the Olympics and
Cascades even without elevated fire weather conditions. If you
are in the mountains the next few days please be extra careful.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for
Admiralty Inlet-Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Coastal
Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60
Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion