Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
160
FXUS66 KSEW 130414
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
814 PM PST Mon Jan 12 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Lingering rainfall will weaken and shift north
overnight as high pressure aloft begins to rebuild into the
region. Dry and mild conditions will persist through the
remainder of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...No significant
changes to the forecast tonight. Update to hydro discussion
below. 33
Previous discussion...Lingering rain limited to far northern
portions of western Washington and the Cascades, will weaken and
shift north of the border overnight as a broad upper level
ridge builds northward into the region. This will set the stage
for a generally dry and very mild pattern for much of the week.
Highs temperatures Tuesday will reach into the upper 50s despite
fairly widespread cloud cover, easily 5 to 10 degrees above
normal and near a few daily records. Expect fewer clouds and
perhaps a touch more low lying fog Wednesday morning. A weak
frontal system will fall apart as it encounters the building
ridge Wednesday, likely resulting in little more than a little
more afternoon mixing than would be expected with the building
ridge - but still warmer than normal temperatures Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...The high amplitude upper
level ridge axis will settle over the offshore waters Thursday
and linger into at least the early portion of the weekend.
Ensembles remain in excellent agreement with the trend towards
very mild temperatures, potential morning fog coverage in the
interior lowlands. Low level offshore flow looks to become a
little more established Thursday into Friday as surface high
pressure settles over the interior of British Columbia. The
extended portion of the forecast continues to look to be
unusually mild and sunny at times, pretty rare in January and
over a weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...Westerly flow aloft across the region this evening
as an upper- ridge builds into Western Washington. At the
surface, a stalled frontal boundary to the north is still
bringing rain into western Washington, with the heaviest
precipitation mainly focused along the northern tier of the
Olympic Peninsula and across Whatcom and Skagit counties. With
moist conditions in the low levels, conditions across the area
terminals remain a bit of a mixed bag, primarily ranging from
VFR/MVFR in areas outside of the rain to IFR in areas of low
clouds and rain like the coast (KHQM).
Rain will taper late tonight into early Tuesday. Expect cigs to
maintain around MVFR/IFR overnight, with areas of patchy
fog developing across the region. Breezy winds from this afternoon
have slowly eased into this evening becoming light and
variable area-wide by Tuesday morning.
KSEA...Conditions will generally trend between MVFR to low-end VFR
through tonight. Cigs are expected to lower again towards IFR
(probabilistic guidance showing a 20-40 percent chance)
overnight into Tuesday morning. S/SW surface winds ranging 10-15
kts this afternoon will continue to ease tonight. Winds will
become light 3-6 kts overnight into Tuesday morning.
14/41
&&
.MARINE...Gusty winds and elevated seas will linger over many
of the area waters this evening as surface high pressure begins
to expands northward across area waters. A weak frontal boundary
will dissipate well offshore Wednesday afternoon followed by
strong surface high pressure over the offshore waters - shifting
into the interior of British Columbia on Thursday and a period
of offshore flow toward the end of the week. Apart from
easterlies near gaps in coastal terrain, this should be a
relatively quiet period in terms of wind across area waters.
Coastal seas will remain in double digits into Tuesday morning,
subsiding during the afternoon and evening. Another decaying swell
train continues to be forecast to push seas back above 10 feet
Wednesday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...The Skokomish River has crested and will slowly
recede, yet remain within Minor flood stage through much of the
week. Skagit River looks to remain below flood stage but has not
crested yet. Still watching the Nooksack River at Ferndale which
is slowing down, but may still crest near Minor flood.
Drier weather is then expected Tuesday through next
weekend, with no additional flooding expected.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Flood Watch through Tuesday morning for Cascades of Whatcom
and Skagit Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North
Cascades-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern
Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan
De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion