Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
807
FXUS66 KSEW 230939
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
239 AM PDT Sat May 23 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Dry weather into Sunday with weak ridging over the
Pacific Northwest. Onshore flow will also increase over the
weekend. A system on Monday will result in widespread rain and
cooler temperatures. Unsettled conditions on Tuesday, with drier
weather possible by midweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...Stratus along the Olympic
Peninsula continues to spread inland towards Puget Sound early
this morning. Predominantly cloudy conditions this morning will
clear for some areas into the afternoon. Another round of
stratus expected again tonight into Sunday morning with
increasing onshore flow. Of note, west winds will increase this
evening into tonight along the Strait of Juan de Fuca which may
result in wind gusts along the immediate Strait and Whidbey
Island reaching 30 to 35 MPH. Otherwise, highs both Saturday and
Sunday will range in the 60s to mid 70s.
A frontal system will move onshore late Sunday night through
Monday resulting in widespread rain and cooler conditions.
Monday will also be rather breezy, with increasing southerly
winds. At this time, wind gusts look to range 20 to 35 MPH for
most of Western Washington. Probabilities for wind gusts
reaching 40 MPH peak around Whidbey Islands (and northwards) as
well as along the north coast, with probabilities from NBM
ranging 40 to 60% on Monday. Although widespread impacts aren`t
expected with these winds, unsecured tents or outdoor equipment
could be impacted. There is also a low chance (less than 15%) of
thunder on Monday, mainly late Monday. Highs on Monday will
only reach the mid 50s to mid 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...Unsettled conditions
continue Monday night through Tuesday as the upper low moves
southwards across the Pacific Northwest. Showers will be less
widespread on Tuesday, mainly focused from Snohomish County
southwards by the afternoon. The upper low will then become more
situated over the Southwest midweek, with weak ridging building
back into BC and the northern Pacific Northwest, resulting in
generally drier conditions. Ensembles suggest another trough may
begin to approach Western Washington by late next week. Cooler
temperatures on Tuesday will warm back into the upper 60s to low
70s by midweek. JD
&&
.AVIATION...Increasing low level onshore flow ahead of a weak
system moving into British Columbia will bring coastal stratus
into the interior lowlands early this morning, lingering until
early afternoon. Presently, the stratus is expanding into the
Kitsap Peninsula, still on route for Puget Sound and areas
through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Widespread IFR or low MVFR
ceilings are expected west of the Cascades this morning. The
stratus is expected to gradually lift and scatter between
18Z-21Z for the interior areas, but will linger along the coast
for the entirety of today. Surface winds will be southwesterly
and gusty at times for KBLI and KHQM between 15 to 25 kts.
KSEA...VFR cigs at the terminal presently, but that is likely to
change over the next several hours as stratus infiltrates Puget
Sound from the Kitsap Peninsula. Expect cigs to drop down to MVFR,
with SCT to FEW as low as 004-007 between 11-13Z. Cigs will stay
lower through around 18Z before scattering back to a VFR afternoon.
Southwesterly surface winds are expected between 6-8 kts.
21
&&
.MARINE...Surface high pressure well offshore will result in
continued onshore flow through the weekend. Onshore flow will
peak Saturday night. A strong west push through the Strait of
Juan de Fuca is expected this evening into tonight. For this
reason, the Gale Watch has been upgraded to a Gale Warning.
Frequent wind gusts to 35 kt are expected for the central and
eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca during this period. SCA wind
gusts are also forecast for Admiralty Inlet. Generally lighter
winds on Sunday as high pressure weakens. A weather system will
then move across the waters on Monday leading to increasing
southerly winds. Widespread SCA winds are expected on Monday
with this system for the majority of waters. Will also need to
monitor the potential for gales for eastern Strait of Juan de
Fuca on Monday. Weak ridging then returns Tuesday into midweek.
Seas will be 7 to 10 feet today with a dominant period of 8 to 9
seconds. Seas will briefly subside to 5 to 7 feet on Sunday.
Seas will then build to 12 to 16 feet late Monday into Tuesday
with the weather system before subsiding to near 10 feet on
Wednesday. JD
&&
.HYDROLOGY...The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the
start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated during
this time as needed.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for
Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Watch from 11 AM PDT this morning through late tonight
for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM early this morning to 2 AM PDT
Sunday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion