Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
220
FXUS66 KSEW 181009
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
209 AM PST Wed Feb 18 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will remain overhead across the northeast
Pacific and western Washington through Thursday, before moving
inland. Shower activity will continue through Friday, with mixed
precipitation remaining a possibility, especially in the
overnight and morning hours as temperatures drop to below
freezing. Some of the cooler air will be aided by Fraser River
outflow in the North Interior, resulting in very cold wind
chills next few mornings. Temperatures warm up next weekend into
next week with a system expected to produce more widespread
precipitation, and gusty winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
An upper level trough (now nearly stacked over the northeast
Pacific off the Washington coast) remains in place this morning,
with the center of the low close to Neah Bay. This trough will
remain in place through Thursday, before being allowed to move
inland Friday.
There continues to be shower activity this morning across the
north Interior (north of I-90 from northern King COunty into
Skagit County), as well as in the Strait of Juan de Fuca areas.
This will likely continue through the morning. WSDOT cameras
show the precipitation falling as snow in the Lake
Stevens/Marysville area. The snow is sticking to the grassy
areas, with the flakes melting on contact with the roadways (
temperatures are just above freezing at 33-34 degrees). Given
the isolated area of snow, will likely not issue a winter
weather advisory at this time (given the surrounding areas are
seeing rain falling and wet surfaces), but will continue to
monitor for impacts during the morning hours (especially as
activity moves north into cooler air). Nevertheless,
temperatures will dip tonight into the low 30s/upper 20s for
much of the region. Slick surfaces will likely be present in
cool/wet areas the freeze overnight, so use caution commuting
this morning. There is a cold weather advisory for western
Whatcom County through 10 am this morning as apparent
temperatures will dip into the low 20s/upper teens.
HREF ensembles show another round of showers moving from the
coast inland across the interior later this afternoon/evening.
Rain/snow mix is expected with this round of showers, with
impacts remaining minimal. Fraser River Outflow is expected to
amplify tonight/Thursday morning with increasing northeast winds
of up to 25-30 mph pushing down to as far as the Strait of Juan
de Fuca. This will likely create wind chill values into the
teens and 20s across a larger area (down to as far as the north
Everett area).
As the trough moves inland Thursday/Friday (and is replaced by a
brief ridge), the precipitation chances will decrease to just
the mountains and the coast Thursday into Friday (but there will
remain a slight chance of precip Friday for most areas). There
will remain a wind chill/apparent temperature concern for Friday
morning from the end of the Fraser River outflow Thursday. A
good chunk of the region will likely see some sunshine Friday
afternoon (thanks to the ridge), but will continue to see highs
in the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The ensembles continue to favor another upper level low dropping
south from the Gulf of Alaska, to offshore of Washington this
weekend into next week. There is some wobbles in the exact
placement of the low (and jet funneling in some of the
moisture), but it appears that the precipitation will be spread
out across the Saturday-Tuesday timeframe (with the bulk of the
QPF falling Monday and Tuesday). There was a downward
adjustment in the total amount of QPF falling with this system,
but the primary impact remains snow in the mountains, with
probabilities of 6 or more inches of snow remaining very high
early next week. There may also be a period of breezy winds
Saturday into Sunday for areas west of the Olympics, with medium
probabilities of wind gusts exceeding 30 mph. Additionally,
this system is expected to generate large waves offshore the
Pacific Coast, that may result in high surf conditions Saturday
and Sunday for beaches/coastal areas. Temperatures will warm up
into next week, with highs in the lowlands returning into the
upper 40s to low 50s. Overnight temperatures will improve into
the upper 30s to low 40s.
HPR
&&
.AVIATION...
An upper level trough will begin to push inland today/Thursday,
with the flow aloft switching from the west today, to the north
Thursday. Ceilings are a mix of MVFR and VFR this morning across
a majority of terminals. Localized pockets of freezing fog/mist
has formed in the south Puget Sound/interior areas (primarily
affecting KOLM) that will clear as ceilings fill in. Showers are
ongoing this morning in the Everett area, and will continue to
remain scattered across the region during the TAF period. The
showers in the overnight/morning periods have the highest
likelihood of having a rain/snow mix (or just snow). While snow
accumulations are unlikely at the terminals, a shower that
passes overhead will be capable of reducing
ceilings/visibilities down to IFR.
MVFR probabilities are highest through late morning, with VFR
favored in the afternoon for all terminals. Probabilities will
increase for MVFR to IFR cigs in the south interior late this
evening. Winds for most terminals will be out of the southwest
around 5 kt becoming northeast Thursday morning. Fraser Outflow
will produce stronger winds tonight/Thursday in north interior
terminals (10-15 kt gusting to 25 kt).
KSEA...Probabilities are most favored for MVFR ceilings this
morning (low chance of IFR mixing in briefly). VFR expected
going into the afternoon, with an increasing chance of MVFR
redeveloping tonight. Vicinity showers will continue this
morning to the northeast of the terminal, with the threat
continuing through the TAF period. Winds: SW 4-6 kt becoming
N/NE tonight/Thursday.
HPR
&&
.MARINE...
A trough will continue to remain offshore through Thursday, with
showers continuing to pass through the waters at times (with
periodic reductions in visibilities). In the short term, a small
craft advisory continues for seas of 10-13 ft through late this
morning in the coastal waters/Grays Harbor Bar. The seas will
decrease back down to 6 to 8 ft this afternoon through Thursday,
and decrease to 4 to 6 ft Friday as the trough tracks inland
with brief ridging overhead. The only wind concern in the short
term is the increased probabilities of Fraser Outflow making its
way through the Northern Inland Waters, down to the eastern two
thirds of the Strait of Juan de Fuca (tonight/Thursday).
Otherwise, the next trough will dig from the northwest into the
coastal waters this weekend, and remain there into next week.
There is increasing confidence that portions of the coastal
waters will see gale force gusts, with winds below gale
(affecting small craft) in the Strait of Juan de Fuca Saturday
into early next week. Seas are also expected to steepen back up
to 14-18 ft this weekend as well.
HPR
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding is expected in the next seven days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Cold Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for
Lowlands of Western Whatcom County.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for
Grays Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PST this morning for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion