Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
413
FXUS66 KSEW 142142
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
142 PM PST Wed Jan 14 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure remains the dominant weather feature
throughout the rest of this week and into the weekend. Drier
conditions remain in the forecast, as well as chances for
widespread stratus and patchy fog over the next several days.
Areas that clear will have a higher likelihood of fogging in.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A decaying weather system skirting to the north of the forecast
area has had little perceptible impacts on the weather today, as
stratus has blanketed the lowlands of Puget Sound. The stratus
has been widespread throughout the lowlands today, with clearer
skies in the mountains and adjacent foothills. Temperatures have
been cooler than yesterday, which were above average for this
time of year.
An increase in easterly flow, particularly through the Cascade
gaps is in the forecast for tomorrow. Winds will increase
beginning around midday out of the northeast in Puget Sound, and
in the late afternoon in the Cascades, lasting into Friday
morning. Easterly wind gusts are forecast to be between 15 and
25 mph, peaking Friday morning. Any fog and/or stratus that is
present Thursday morning should erode fairly quickly as the dry
easterly flow moves into Puget Sound.
21
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Clearer skies are forecast for the weekend as the high pressure
moves a bit more directly over the state. The cluster analysis
shows the ridge flattening out a bit by early next week, which
at this point is more of a signal for more expansive fog
coverage early next week as opposed to precipitation. The much
extended forecast shows more of an indication of low pressure
coming back, but it is far too uncertain to pin down at this
point.
21
&&
.AVIATION...
An upper level ridge will remain the dominant influence over the
region through the TAF period, with westerly flow aloft becoming
more northerly tonight. A weak, decaying front at the surface
will dissipate over the coastal waters this afternoon and evening
and will allow for some high cloud cover to stream in overhead.
Latest satellite imagery still shows stratus across the majority
of the interior lowlands this afternoon. While it`s attempting
to clear in some spots, expect this trend to remain short-lived
as it starts to fill back in. Approaching high cloud cover from
the front will likely also limit much additional clearing today.
Otherwise, conditions across the area terminals have mainly
rebounded to MVFR and VFR. Another round of low stratus will be
possible overnight into Thursday morning, with latest guidance
hinting at roughly a 30-45 percent chance of conditions lowering
to IFR across the central Sound terminals and a 20-35 percent
chance for terminals lowering to IFR along the coast. Winds will
remain light and variable between 3-6 kt through the much of
the overnight period, before increasing to 7-12 kt from the
north through the morning hours on Thursday.
KSEA...Conditions have rebounded to VFR this afternoon. Another
round of low stratus will be possible at the terminal on
Thursday morning, with probabilistic guidance indicating a 30-40
percent chance of conditions lowering back down to IFR early
Thursday. Light and variable winds 3-6 kt will continue through
the overnight period, before increasing to 7-12 kt Thursday
morning (between 13-16Z).
14
&&
.MARINE...
A weak frontal system will dissipate over the coastal waters
this afternoon. A strong surface high over the northeastern
Pacific will then strengthen and move into the interior of
British Columbia on Thursday, while a thermal trough builds
along the coast. Offshore flow will develop as a result and
will bring gusty winds near the gaps in coastal terrain at times
through the weekend. This will mainly impact the central and
western Strait of Juan de Fuca waters and the coastal water
zones from Cape Flattery to James Island and from Point
Grenville to Cape Shoalwater (out to 60 NM).
Seas will hover between 10-12 ft today, with a Small Craft
Advisories in effect for the coastal waters and the west
Entrance of the Strait through tonight. Seas will gradually
subside back towards 3-6 ft by Friday and persist at this range
into early next week.
14
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding is expected over the next 7 days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Grays
Harbor Bar-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Thursday for
Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Thursday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion