Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
008
FXUS66 KSEW 131017
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
217 AM PST Fri Nov 13 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of frontal systems will bring a return of widespread
rain and occasionally windy conditions today through the
weekend. A trend toward drier and cooler conditions are expected
toward the middle portion of next week as the storm track shifts
south of Western Washington.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Rain is spreading onto the coast this morning ahead of the first
of a couple frontal systems that will impact the region in the
days ahead. Along with the rain, breezy to locally windy
conditions will develop along the coast, the North Interior, and
near the Cascade gaps. A combination of high tide and lower
atmospheric pressure will contribute to minor to moderate
coastal flooding today as well. Larger seas building to around
20 feet will reach the coast where a high surf advisory remains
in effect. Rain will turn to showers by tonight as an upper
trough axis shifts onshore.
A second and stronger frontal system will move into the area
later Saturday into Saturday night. QPF remains in the same
ballpark as previous estimates with around 1.5 to 2 inches for
much of the coast, 3+ inches on the south facing slopes of the
Olympics, and somewhere between 0.50 and 1 inch for much of the
interior lowlands. NBM probabilities of wind gusts exceeding 50
mph along portions of the coast are around 60 to 80 percent for
Saturday afternoon/evening with another bullseye of 50 to 60
percent probabilities near the east entrance to the strait later
Saturday night. Elsewhere, peak wind gusts Saturday night will
be roughly 30 to 40 mph. Post-frontal showers continue into
Sunday with winds easing.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
An upper trough will move into the area Sunday night and Monday
and introduce a notably cooler air mass from what we`ve seen
recently. QPF will be light by this time, but snow levels will
dip to around 4000 feet. Models are continuing the trend of the
next system toward the middle of next week taking a more
southern track and just clipping the far southern portion of the
CWA. Beyond that, upper ridging is on track to bring a period
of drier weather to round out the remainder of the week. And
this time of year, that probably means some fog and cool
temperatures.
27
&&
.AVIATION...
A frontal system is moving onshore as widespread rainfall spreads
along the coast. This activity will continue inland as the morning
progress. Ceilings will briefly dip to MVFR as the rain pushes
through, but VFR is favored for much of the day. Low level wind
shear may impact terminals as the frontal system moves through.
Rainfall will transition to showers by this evening with a slight
chance (less than 15%) chance of thunder along the coast. Mostly VFR
is expected tonight into Saturday morning but can`t rule out areas
of MVFR as well. Surface winds will generally remain south/southeast
through the period, with winds generally 5-10 kt with gusts to 20 kt
for the Puget Sound terminals and higher gusts up to 30 kt along the
coast.
KSEA...VFR conditions with high clouds. A frontal system will push
inland between 15z-18z, bringing rain and potential for low level
wind shear at the terminal. While conditions are expected to remain
predominantly VFR, MVFR may briefly develop in heavier rainfall.
Winds will generally remain out of the south or southeast around 10
kt or less, with gusts to 20 kt developing at the terminal later
this evening. VFR conditions are favored tonight into Saturday
morning.
41
&&
.MARINE...
SCAs will remain for the East Strait, Admiralty Inlet and Grays
Harbor Bar well into tonight. A SCA has been issued for the West
Strait as well for the remainder of the morning before dropping off
this afternoon due to ESE winds reaching criteria. Gales gusts are
firmly in place across the coastal waters as an occasional storm
force gust cannot be ruled out, particularly over the outer coastal
waters. SCA winds look to potentially pick up later tonight into
Saturday morning for the Northern Inland waters
Winds over the inner waters will remain elevated into Saturday
morning, winds over the coastal waters will briefly decrease as
gales transition to more Small Craft strength. However, the next
frontal system is set to arrive late Saturday afternoon as a sub 970
mb low generates very strong southerly winds. REFS probabilities are
now showing greater than 90% chance of Storm Force gusts being met
over the outer and inner coastal waters while the NBM is showing 50-
60% into Saturday night. Small Craft winds are favored to continue
on Sunday, at least over the coastal waters and portions of the
inland waters Conditions are favored to calm by Monday, with
potential for continued windy conditions over the waters returning
by Tuesday.
Today`s system will bring very large seas to the Washington coast,
with high confidence in waves building to 20-26 ft over the coastal
waters by this afternoon. These large waves will also be very
energetic, with a dominant period of 18 to 20 seconds. Seas will
remain elevated through Saturday morning and will briefly ease a bit
into early Sunday, remaining between 14 to 18 feet. Another system
will send another round of large, long period waves on Sunday with
another round of waves likely 20-22 ft or higher through Monday
morning. Seas look to ease a bit after Monday, but will likely stay
in the 12-15 foot range heading into the middle of next week.
41
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The potential for flooding continues on the Skokomish River
with periods of heavy rainfall Friday through the weekend. A
Flood Watch remains in effect.
River flooding is not expected on the other rivers in the area
in the next 7 days at this time.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Coastal Flood Warning from 6 AM this morning to noon PST today
for San Juan County.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM this morning to noon PST
today for City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville
Area-Eastern Kitsap County-Island County-Lowlands of
Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western
Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of
Western Whatcom County-Northern Hood Canal-Olympia and
Southern Puget Sound-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett
Area-Southern Hood Canal.
Flood Watch from 4 AM PST early this morning through late
Saturday night for Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-
Olympics-Southern Hood Canal.
High Surf Advisory from noon today to 7 AM PST Saturday for
Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM PST
this afternoon for Grays Harbor County Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Saturday for Grays Harbor
Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for West
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for
East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM PST
Saturday for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM PST
Saturday for Admiralty Inlet.
Gale Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM PST
Saturday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To
James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island
To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James
Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion