Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
123
FXUS66 KSEW 080321
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
821 PM PDT Wed Oct 7 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the region through Thursday. Morning
fog and stratus will continue likely until Thursday morning,
where it will become less widespread. Sunny afternoons are
expected, with seasonably warm temperatures. A front crosses the
region late Friday into Saturday, bringing another round of rain
and cooler conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
This evening: a couple areas of fog/low stratus have remained in
place in western Skagit County, and along the Pacific Coast.
Expect coverage to increase overnight, with the best chance for
fog being in the north interior (from Bellingham to Everett),
and remaining areas seeing a mix of low stratus and mist. Slightly
less extensive cloud cover will bring an earlier clearing and
slightly warmer temperatures Thursday.
The system moving in on Friday will be weak, and the expected QPF is
minimal around a few hundredths of an inch across the Cascades and
northern portions of Puget Sound. While the precipitation won`t last
very long, the pattern change will usher in cooler temperatures,
with highs on Friday knocked back down to the low 60s. Snow levels
drop to around 5000 ft late Friday night, so the higher terrain
particularly in the North Cascades may see a dusting of snow. Expect
breezy winds along the coast, Strait of Juan de Fuca and waterfront
areas of Puget Sound on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overnight lows will be decreasing over the weekend as the
pattern becomes focused on low pressure over the NW. Saturday
morning lows will be in the upper 30s across the Cascade passes,
and low 40s in the foothills. The lows decrease a few degrees
more come Sunday morning. Stay tuned to the forecast as it
relates to frost and freeze potential for agricultural concerns
and sensitive vegetation.
Cooler temperatures look to continue into early next week as low
pressure churns in the Gulf of Alaska. Some of the models depict
another chance at rain on Tuesday into Wednesday, but the
ensembles are mixed on exact placement of the low and resultant
weather systems.
&&
.AVIATION...
A similar scenario is likely tonight/Thursday where the areas
of fog/low stratus that are able to survive the burnoff will
expand as north winds become calm or light/variable. The best
chance for visibilities under a mile will be the north interior,
Strait of Juan de Fuca, Pacific Coast, and south interior.
Remaining areas still have a high chance of seeing LIFR
ceilings, most of which will clear late Thursday morning/early
afternoon. Winds will pick up out of the north for most Thursday
at 5-10 kt.
KSEA...VFR conditions through the evening. Stratus to the north near
KPAE and northward is likely to reform and fill south through Puget
Sound late this evening/overnight. While the likelihood for low LIFR
visibilities has decreased, there still remains a high likelihood of
LIFR ceilings forming as early as 09Z, and persisting into 18Z
before lifting. Winds this afternoon/Thursday afternoon are out
of the north 5-10 kt, becoming 5 kt or less overnight.
HPR
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will remain situated over the coastal
waters the next few days, while a thermal trough builds
northward along the Washington coast. This will continue to
promote northerly winds across the coastal waters into Thursday.
Northerly winds may become gusty to 25 kt at times across the
coastal waters off of Grays Harbor today and Thursday afternoon,
but expect the stronger, more sustained winds to generally
remain south of the area. Onshore flow will return by Thursday
evening, with guidance indicating a 30-50% chance of westerly
winds exceeding small craft strength along the central and
eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca. A frontal system will then move
into the area waters Friday into Saturday, bringing the
likelihood (>80% chance) of small craft strength winds to the
coastal waters and the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Seas will build
in the system`s wake, with latest GEFS probabilities indicating
a 60-80% chance of seas exceeding 10 ft across the coastal
waters by Friday night.
Winds will ease and seas will gradually subside through the day
on Saturday as the system exits the area. High pressure will
then build back into the coastal waters by Sunday, while a
thermal trough expands northward along the coast again.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion