Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
596
FXUS66 KSEW 150311
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
711 PM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system moves across the area late today into Sunday
for steadier rain, gusty winds. Post-frontal showers on Sunday.
Unsettled conditions continue Monday with troughing over the
western US. Another low approaches the west coast midweek with
the majority of the precipitation focused south of western
Washington.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The latest forecast remains on track this evening with minor
updates to the Aviation section below. Steadier rain will
continue to move onshore this evening, moving into Puget Sound
tonight. Steadier precipitation then slides into the Cascades by
Sunday morning. South winds also increase with this front, with
the strongest winds along the coast and San Juan Islands. A
Wind Advisory remains in effect for these areas with gusts of 50
to 55 MPH. A Wind Advisory has also been issued for Whidbey
Island and Admiralty Inlet region with southeast wind gusts of
40 to 50 MPH. Elsewhere, breezy conditions are expected, mainly
ranging 25 to 40 MPH. Post- frontal showers develop on Sunday,
resulting in unsettled conditions at times. In addition, weak
instablilty (150-300 J/kg) may lead to localized thunderstorms,
particularly along the coast and Olympic Peninsula. Otherwise,
winds remain elevated on Sunday, but slowly ease during the
afternoon hours. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for
the San Juan Islands again Sunday morning before tides gradually
decrease through this week.
Upper troughing over the western US on Monday will keep a
limited threat for showers over the area, especially for the
Olympic Peninsula and Cascades. Highs in the mid to upper 50s
through Sunday will cool on Monday to the low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Drier conditions are expected on Tuesday as troughing moves
into the interior Rockies. A deep surface low approaches the
west coast on Wednesday. Ensembles keep the majority of the
precipitation focused south of western Washington with this
system, however a chance of precipitation remains due to some
lingering uncertainty in the proximity of the system. The system
moves onshore across CA on Thursday, allowing for another
period of drier conditions late week. Uncertainty increases
further in ensembles by next weekend, but indications of
troughing offshore may result in the return of a more active
pattern. JD
&&
.AVIATION...
A strong front will move through the terminals tonight/Sunday. Low-
end VFR conditions should prevail for most through this evening
before rain begins to arrive to the coast and move through the
interior overnight. A brief period of MVFR cigs (and vis along the
coast in heavier rain) will be possible overnight, otherwise
ceilings look to remain VFR (in the 3500-4500 ft range) through much
of Sunday as scattered showers continue. There is a low (15-20%)
chance of isolated thunderstorms, mainly along the coast.
South/southeasterly winds 8-15 kt with gusts to 25 kt will increase
tonight, with gusts up to 25-30 kt across the entire area by late
tonight. Locally higher gusts 30-40 kt possible along the coast and
through the northern interior overnight. Winds will peak overnight
but remain elevated through much of Sunday with continued gusts of
15-25 kt as winds will be very slow to decrease.
KSEA...VFR through the evening. The next front is slated to arrive
tonight with steadier rainfall and the potential for a brief period
of MVFR cigs overnight between around 09-15Z Mon. Surface winds
remain S/SE. Winds 8-12 kt today, increasing to 10 to 15 kt
overnight with gusts up to 25 kt possible through early Sunday.
Winds will begin to slowly ease Sunday afternoon with VFR conditions
continuing.
62/HPR
&&
.MARINE...
A strong low pressure system will send a cold front across the
area waters as the low center tracks to the northeast along the
British Columbia coast. Winds will continue to increase across
the area, with winds peaking overnight. Storm Warnings remain in
effect for the coastal waters with peak wind gusts overnight
forecast up to 40- 50 kt, particularly across the offshore
coastal waters. Gale Warnings remain in effect across the most
of the interior waters, with a Small Craft Advisory in effect
for the Puget Sound. Winds will begin to decrease Sunday morning
but will do so gradually, with most locations seeing Small
Craft Advisory level winds through much of the day on Sunday.
Winds will finally ease over the coastal waters and northern
Salish Sea Sunday night.
Seas are slowly easing from their maximum last night, but will
remain in the 16-20 ft range before the strong winds overnight raise
seas back to around 20-22 ft. These short period waves will ease
fairly quickly early Sunday morning to around 15-18 ft before the
westerly long-period swell arrives late Sunday morning, with waves
peaking in the afternoon/evening hours. Seas will rise to a maximum
of around 20-22 ft at around 16 seconds, but could be as high as 25
ft farther offshore.
With higher pressure building across the area on Monday, this will
allow for a break in the activity, with winds remaining light and
allowing for waves to decrease throughout the day, lowering to
around 10-12 ft by early Tuesday.
A low pressure system will form over the open northeast Pacific and
move off to the southeast of Washington Tuesday into Wednesday,
making landfall over northern California late Wednesday. While
somewhat distant, this system will allow winds to turn offshore and
increase, as well as increasing waves for the next round of
headlines mid-week. Calmer conditions under high pressure are then
favored Thursday into the end of the week.
62
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The potential for flooding continues on the Skokomish River
with another round of steadier rainfall tonight into early
Sunday. A Flood Watch remains in effect.
River flooding is not expected on the other rivers in the area
in the next 7 days at this time.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor County
Coast-Northern Washington Coast-San Juan County.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM to noon PST Sunday for
Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-San Juan County.
Flood Watch through Sunday morning for Olympia and Southern
Puget Sound-Olympics-Southern Hood Canal.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST Sunday for Island County-Port
Townsend Area.
High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor
County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
High Surf Warning from 10 AM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday for
Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor
Bar.
Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for Central U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait
Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday for West
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 7 AM PST Sunday for Admiralty Inlet-East
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern
Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday for
Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan
De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST Sunday for Puget Sound and
Hood Canal.
Storm Warning until 1 AM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out
10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion