Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
474
FXUS66 KSEW 240929
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
229 AM PDT Sat Oct 24 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will descend from British Columbia tonight
into Sunday, bringing precipitation to Western Washington.
Conditions look to remain cooler and unsettled next week as
additional systems move through the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High clouds starting to stream overhead across Western Washington
early this morning. Temperatures continue to drop as well, with
the latest observations showing temperatures in the low 30s to
low 40s. A frontal system associated associated with a low
pressure system just off the coast of British Columbia will move
south into Western Washington this evening. Light precipitation
is expected with this system, with rain reaching the coastline
this evening and then filling into the interior by Sunday
morning. The bulk of the precipitation is expected along the
coast and the Olympics. The parent upper level low is expected
to continue its southward track Sunday into Monday. The majority
of models favor the center of the low pressure system moving into
Oregon, which should render drier conditions for the region.
However, shall center of the low track more towards the
Oregon/Washington border, it may keep light showers in the
forecast for Monday.
High temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. Low temperatures in the
in the low 30s to low 40s increasing to the upper 30s to mid 40s by
Monday.
29
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Conditions look to remain generally unsettled into Friday.
There is general agreement among ensemble guidance a broad upper
level trough will remain situated over the region Tuesday with
a low pressure system to the north. Models are now trending
wetter on Wednesday and Thursday, as the low pressure system
moves southward. Cooler temperatures expected next week, with
the coldest temperatures expected late in the week; high
temperatures in the low to mid 50s and low temperatures in the
low 30s to low 40s.
29
&&
.AVIATION...
Westerly flow aloft will shift southwesterly and increase today
as an upper trough digs southward into the Washington offshore
waters. Areas of LIFR low clouds and surface visibilities
below 3SM along the coast and across the Southwest Interior will
dissipate by around 18Z as high and mid level moisture increases
areawide ahead of the incoming system. Ceilings will lower to
MVFR in light rain at times along the coast and across the far
North Interior by around 00Z. After low clouds dissipate
this morning, ceilings are expected to remain VFR across the
interior from around KPAE southward into this evening.
KSEA...Confidence in VFR conditions this morning remains fairly high
as temp/dew point trend and arrival of high clouds with incoming
system limit any low cloud development. High and mid level clouds
will lower and thicken through the day, but are expected to remain
well within VFR thresholds. Surface winds southeasterly generally 7
knots or less this morning are expected to back to a more E/NE
direction later this afternoon and evening as offshore system gets a
little closer to the region.
27
&&
.MARINE...
A surface low southwest of Haida Gwaii will shift southward today
into tonight and an associated occluded front will clip the coastal
waters on Sunday morning. Increasing easterly or southeasterly
gradients will lead to small craft advisory winds across the coastal
waters as well as the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Seas will build to 10
to 12 feet over the coastal waters late today into Sunday. The
surface low is expected to move onshore over northwest Oregon
Sunday night into Monday with winds easing and seas subsiding back
below 10 feet. Another frontal system will shift southward into
area waters on Wednesday.
27
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT
Sunday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To
James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island
To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-West Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT
Sunday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM PDT Sunday
for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT
Sunday for Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion