Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
039
FXUS66 KSEW 271100
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
301 AM PST Thu Nov 27 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system passing through western Washington will result in
steady rainfall throughout the Thanksgiving holiday before tapering
off overnight tonight. The weather pattern will trend drier and
eventually cooler Friday into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Latest radar imagery taking the shape of an upside-down L this
morning as precip associated with the warm front continues to lift
into the northern third of the CWA while precip associated with the
cold front moves eastward through the western half of the area.
While the pattern and rate of movement could hint at things starting
to taper off earlier than forecast, upper level support from the
main trough...expected to move through in the afternoon and evening
hours...will likely keep rain in the forecast for the bulk of the
day.
In fact, models are a little more sluggish in ejecting this upper
level low, so while PoPs are expected to gradually taper off
overnight, sufficient moisture may be present into Friday morning to
keep at least a chance of showers in place for the eastern half of
the area. From here, models remain consistent with bringing a pretty
healthy upper level ridge onto the coast Friday, resulting in the
bulk of the day being dry. Solution posed by the deterministic
ECMWF, with a shortwave impulse making its way south along the
leading edge of the ridge, bringing some rain back to the area
Saturday seems to have caught on with both the deterministic GFS and
a majority of ensemble members. That said, no solution is terribly
impressed with the amount of moisture with this feature, bringing
PoPs to low-end Chance /30 pct/ at best and any rainfall generally
well lower than 0.10 of an inch.
Temps continue to sound like a broken record with daily high temps
each day of the short term generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Overnight lows however will see a cooling trend, starting off in the
lower to mid 40s tonight, dropping a few degrees Friday night to the
upper 30s to lower 40s before widespread temps in the 30s set up
shop for Saturday night.
18
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned impulse wastes no time getting out of the area by
Saturday night allowing ridging to once again hold court over the
eastern Pacific. This will at the very least keep the remainder of
the weekend dry. The ridge will start to break down at the start of
next week, however how quickly this occurs is a point of contention
between the two deterministic models: GFS keeping Monday mostly dry
while ECMWF has moisture entering the area as early as Monday
afternoon. Ensembles do not rule out the latter, but at this time
seem to be siding with the former. Current NBM is siding with the
majority on this one, so will leave this as is for the forecast.
Very strong high pressure remains over the eastern Pacific
throughout this and once again asserts itself, returning dry
conditions to the area by midweek.
Daytime highs continue the trend established in the short term,
generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s. With the flip-flopping
activity being just enough to bring clouds into the area from time
to time, overnight lows will nudge upward, mainly in the upper 30s
to low 40s, however the weak system expected for Tuesday will impact
Monday`s overnight lows, keeping them in the lower 40s.
18
&&
.AVIATION...Moist southwest flow over the region today for rain
and MVFR to low-end VFR conditions. Near the surface, S/SE to E
winds with highest speeds along the central coast. Rain will
decrease in coverage overnight as drier northerly flow develops.
33
KSEA...Rain today with MVFR to low-end VFR ceilings. NE to E winds
around 5 kt, increasing to 5-10 kt tonight. Drier conditions early
Friday. 33
&&
.MARINE...A strong Pacific storm system will track through the
Coastal Waters today, then shift inland (near the mouth of Columbia
River) tonight and weaken. With the tracking of the low, expect
backing winds over the waters from S/SE to N. Seas will also build
to around 10 to 14 ft. In addition, expect strong east winds through
the west and central Strait of Juan de Fuca. Wind and seas will ease
early Friday. Offshore flow will prevail over the weekend and into
next week with high pressure over the NE Pacific. 33
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A passing frontal system will keep rain over the area for much of
the day today and into tonight. Snow levels will remain above 5000
feet through this evening, leaving the majority of the precipitation
falling as rain. However, with expected rainfall amounts holding
steady and topping out mostly in the 2 to 2.5 inch range with this
system, confidence is increasing that we will not see any river
flooding impacts. As a result, the flood potential outlook has been
expired for Mason County.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape
Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters
From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion