Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
944
FXUS66 KSEW 242307
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
307 PM PST Tue Feb 24 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak ridge overhead will maintain mostly dry conditions with a
few showers across the southeast portions of the area. The next
disturbance will cross the area on Wednesday, bringing
additional snow to the mountains and rain to the lowlands. After
some shower linger later in the week, especially across the
north, a trend toward cool and drier conditions emerge over the
weekend and continue into the first half of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Western Washington remains on the fringe of an elongated frontal
system spanning down into Oregon. The southeastern portions of the
area are blanketed by a high cloud deck and perhaps a few light
passing showers, though the bulk of the precip remains south of
Lewis County. This system will weaken and move to the southeast
tonight. Elsewhere, much of the northwestern portions of the area
sit under clear skies, except for some pesky low clouds through the
Strait of Georgia and the Strait of Juan de Fuca coastline. With
northerly winds, it will take a while to clear out there. High
temperatures across the area today will be in the upper 40s to near
50. Low temperatures tonight in the mid 30s to around 40.
Another weather system will being to move in early Wednesday morning
and persist across the area through early Friday. While most of the
precipitation will be focused through British Columbia, the area
will be on the southern fringe of this system. The majority of the
precipitation will be focused on the northern Olympic
Peninsula/northern Pacific coast, and the north Cascades, primarily
north of Stevens Pass. Through Friday morning, up to 1 ft of snow
will be possible mainly in the higher-elevation back country and at
Mt. Baker Ski Area. At Stevens Pass, 4-6" is the expected range.
With snow levels rising about 3500 ft on Thursday, Snoqualmie Pass
will allow for a period of rain, which will limit expected
accumulations and impacts there.
Wednesday and Thursday will be similar in terms of the temperatures
and the winds. Highs will in the upper 40s to low 50s. Lows in the
mid 30s to low 40s. Winds will be breezy, with speeds 15 to 25 mph
with gusts 25 to 35 mph possible. Winds will begin to taper off
Thursday afternoon.
62
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement suggesting another
round of high pressure building over the region as an upper low
cuts off over California late this week into the weekend,
promoting a trend toward drier and cooler weather as the air
mass dries out and skies clear. Most likely temperatures drop
to around the freezing mark in the city centers and into the
upper 20s elsewhere.
&&
.AVIATION...
West to northwest flow aloft with weak troughing aloft. Clouds
continue to blanket the southeastern portions of the area. These
clouds will continue to lift and depart to the southeast this
afternoon into tonight. Clouds will begin to fill in overnight
across the area as the next system moves in. Precipitation will be
confined to to the mountains, but this will bring in enough moisture
for MVFR cigs to develop across most of the area. Models are
beginning to hint that even IFR cigs or areas of patchy fog may also
be possible going into the hours near sunrise Wednesday morning.
Improvement to VFR will be slow through the morning but a return is
expected by Wednesday afternoon.
Northerly winds will ease tonight before switching to light
southerly overnight, increasing up to 8 to 15 kt by Wednesday
morning. Gusts up to 20 to 25 kt will be possible.
KSEA...VFR conditions will prevail through late this evening.
Increased moisture from an incoming weather system will allow for
ceilings to redevelop and lower. The current most likely scenario is
a solid MVFR deck, but if we remain scattered/broken overnight that
may introduce areas of lower cigs and isolated areas of fog.
Probabilities for IFR cigs hover at around 10-15% between
11-17Z Wed and 20-30% for MVFR. A slow improvement to VFR is
expected through the late morning Wednesday. North winds will
ease and switch to south late this evening. Winds will increase
through the morning, up to 8-15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt by
18-21Z Wed.
&&
.MARINE...
Marine conditions have largely subsided today with weak high
pressure temporarily over the waters. Winds likely increase
through the Strait of Juan de Fuca tonight through Wednesday
with low-end advisory speeds developing overnight. Expect a
possible area to expand later Wednesday across the northern
coastal waters as well as the Strait into Thursday as a stronger
disturbance passes across southern B.C. Seas will also build
near to 10 ft with a mix of a larger westerly swell and a
smaller southerly wave group.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding is expected during the next seven days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 4 PM PST
Wednesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion