Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
429
FXUS66 KSEW 232016
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
116 PM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly clear conditions are present this afternoon outside of
some scattered clouds throughout Puget Sound. An area of low
pressure will be dropping south from the British Columbia coast
late Saturday night into Sunday for a round of light rain. Drier
conditions resume by the middle of next week as the low offshore
progresses inland and east.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Mostly clear skies this afternoon and evening will give way to
mostly cloudy skies overnight. With low pressure and cooler
temperatures approaching, overnight lows will dip into the mid
30s in the Cascades and adjacent foothills with low 40s
throughout Puget Sound. A frontal system dropping south from B.C
will introduce rain along the coast tomorrow afternoon,
spreading inland overnight into Sunday morning. The bulk of the
rain will be focused along the Olympic Peninsula and generally
west of the Cascades. Up to three quarters of an inch of rain
is expected along the coast and windward slopes of the Olympics
with only a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch in the Puget
Sound region.
Showers will taper off late Sunday morning, leaving cloudy skies
and highs in the mid to upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The pattern is becoming more consolidated in the models for
early next week. It is suggestive of broad troughing remaining
offshore through the middle of the week, which will keep cooler
and cloudier conditions in the forecast. A weak impulse moving
through will generate some slight chance PoPs for the area
Tuesday afternoon through late Tuesday night. Significant rain
is not expected beyond another few hundredths of an inch. Colder
overnight lows will accompany this system and bring temperatures
overnight back down the upper 30s and low 40s. Wednesday
through Friday look to be more on the drier side as the low and
associated weak front move inland, leaving the area in an
onshore flow regime. Afternoon highs will consistently be in the
mid to upper 50s through the week.
The 8-14 day hazards outlook still suggests a 20-40% chance of
heavier rain, stronger winds and possibly mountain snow in the
October 31 to November 6 timeframe. Stay tuned to the forecast
as more details on emerge on a possibly more active pattern.
21
&&
.AVIATION...
Generally VFR with some lingering clouds around 3000-4000 feet
causing localized pockets of MVFR east of the Puget Sound.
Conditions across western Washington are expected to reach VFR as
clouds continue to erode into the evening. Mostly clear skies will
be short-lived, with high clouds building in from the northwest
later tonight. The increased cloud cover may work to inhibit fog and
low cloud development for most areas, although IFR/LIFR is possible
for more fog-prone terminals early Saturday morning including KHQM,
KOLM, and KPWT. An approaching frontal system will bring increasing
light showers into western Washington generally north of KPWT-KBFI
Saturday afternoon, with a frontal system on track to sweep across
the area late Saturday into Sunday, bringing more widespread
MVFR conditions in rain.
Surface winds generally northerly around 5-10 kt this afternoon,
becoming light and variable overnight. Light south to southeast
winds will develop Saturday in the wake of an approaching frontal
system.
KSEA...VFR this afternoon with lingering clouds right around 3000
feet. Clouds expected to gradually erode into the evening, with
increasing clouds into early Saturday morning. The high clouds will
likely limit the development of fog and low clouds around SeaTac,
with VFR expected through the TAF period. Surface winds generally
northerly 5 to 9 kt this afternoon, becoming light overnight and
switching to the southeast to southwest early Saturday.
15
&&
.MARINE...
Northwesterly winds and seas will continue to ease into the evening,
with SCA conditions winding down over the outer coastal waters. A
more benign pattern will settle in over area waters into Saturday,
with waves subsiding to around 4 to 6 feet.
By Sunday, a low pressure system will move southward over the region
and bring a frontal system over the waters. Winds and seas look to
potentially ramp up again with this system, with southeasterly SCA
winds possible and waves once again encroaching 10 to 12 feet across
the outer coastal waters Sunday.
Unsettled conditions are expected to continue into next week, with
additional systems expected to cross area waters. Seas look to
remain around 4 to 7 feet with fairly benign winds, though
conditions next week may change if models continue to lean towards
bringing in continued weather systems.
15
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion