Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
388
FXUS66 KSEW 120502
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
902 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
.UPDATE...
Forecast on track this evening. Record highs in many locations
over the interior today. The high of 69 in Bellingham tied
for the second warmest November day on record. Cold front
remaining stalled off the coast Thursday but more cloud cover
over the area along with weaker southerly surface gradients will
keep highs in the lower 60s. Could see another record high in
Seattle. The record is 61 set in 2018.
What is left of the cold front getting pushed inland by an
approaching stronger system Friday. Updated aviation, marine and
hydro sections below. Felton
&&
.SYNOPSIS...A warm front has introduced a very mild air mass to
Western Washington with near record high temperatures expected
today. A cold front will stall offshore into Thursday with
mainly dry conditions for interior areas and light rain at times
near the coast. A series of frontal systems will bring a return
of widespread rain and occasionally windy conditions Friday
into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...Western Washington
sits in the warm sector today with a warm front north into B.C.
and a cold front stalled offshore. We are seeing very mild
conditions with temperatures in the 60s and a few spots
breaking daily highs by a degree or two. Meanwhile, it`s still
windy along the north coast and north interior but winds will be
easing this afternoon - the Wind Advisory will expire at 4 PM
today as planned.
The cold front remains stalled offshore on Thursday with another
mild day planned for western WA. Forecast highs are in the lower
60s or around 5-10 degrees warmer than average. A few light
showers may clip the coast, otherwise it`ll be dry in the
interior.
A deep, stacked, low pressure center will shift E/SE toward WA
on Friday, slowly pushing a front inland. While most of the rain
will be along the coast, the interior will also see light
accumulations. A tight pressure gradient will lead to gusty
winds along the coast with gusts to 35-45 MPH. It`ll be gusty
too across the Cascades, gaps, and foothills with east winds to
20-30 MPH. In addition, high tides and lower pressure may lead
to minor coastal flooding Friday morning. The main area is the
shoreline and beaches around the Salish Sea during the time of
high tide. 33
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Low pressure (from
Friday) will shift inland Friday night into Saturday, with
another strong Pacific frontal system right at its heels.
Coastal flooding remains a concern on Saturday morning too. This
second system will bring more lowland rain and gusty winds to
the area Saturday/Saturday night. Highest winds will be along
the coast with S/SE gusts to 40-50 MPH. It will be windy in the
interior as well with winds 20-40 MPH. Troughing keeps the area
wet through Sunday. Rain-wise, we`re looking at another 1-2"
along the coast this weekend with 0.50-1.00" in the interior.
Additional rainfall in the Olympics will keep the Skokomish
River running high with flooding possible. Moving forward,
showers continue into Monday with weaker troughing overhead. A
weak front heads to our south by midweek. 33
&&
.AVIATION...
A stalled cold front will remain offshore tonight with shower
activity continuing west of the Olympics well into Thursday. Gusty
southwest winds continue in the north interior and the coast this
evening, but will decrease through tonight and remain out of the
south. A high cloud deck will remain intact tonight into Thursday.
Only the coast/Olympics/Cascades have significant probabilities for
ceilings less than VFR (MVFR for the coast, and IFR/LIFR for the
Olympics/Cascades) tonight/Thursday morning. The high cloud deck
will be enough to prevent widespread fog from forming into the
interior Thursday morning (though isolated pockets in valley areas
cannot be ruled out).
KSEA...VFR likely to persist through the TAF period. Low chance (5%)
of vicinity fog in the morning near the Duwamish River/east of the
terminal. Winds: south at around 5 kt.
HPR
&&
.MARINE...
The gale warning was cancelled early this evening for the east Strait
of Juan de Fuca as winds have decreased well below gale/small craft
criteria. The warning continues for the northern inland waters
through 10 PM (as well as a small craft advisory for the Admiralty
Inlet) as gusty winds continue east of Whidbey Island and up into
Bellingham this evening.
Strong winds will continue to persist across the coastal waters and
northern inland waters today as a cold front remains stalled
offshore. This front will weaken as it slowly drifts onshore this
evening, allowing winds to slowly ease this evening into early
Thursday morning. Seas generally around 15 to 18 feet this afternoon
will gradually ease to around 12 to 15 feet on Thursday, with severe
bar conditions easing to rough into Thursday at Grays Harbor.
A pair of strong low pressure systems will move across the coastal
waters late Thursday night into Friday, with the second moving
through Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will begin to increase
across the area waters by the afternoon Thursday. Gales will begin
as early as Thursday afternoon, peaking overnight into early Friday
morning. Guidance continues to indicate 50-70% chances for storm
force gusts over the outer coastal waters, though higher end gale
force winds continue to be more likely along the inner coastal
waters. A Gale Watch remains in effect, likely to be upgraded with
additional Small Craft Advisories elsewhere.
Seas once again will build over the coastal waters on Friday. With
the low center tracking closer towards our area, that will send the
largest waves farther south towards Oregon. That being said, very
large seas are expected, with ensemble guidance continuing to show
very high confidence in seas above 20 ft by Friday evening, with a
25-35% chance of seas above 25 ft through Saturday morning. Dominant
periods will be long but have come down slightly, in the 14-16
second range. Seas look to briefly ease Saturday morning below 20 ft
before another system will send another round of large, long period
waves on Sunday with high confidence in seas above 20 ft with
chances of seas exceeding 25 ft through early Monday.
With these systems, slight shifts in the low tracks will determine
where the strongest wave generation/dynamic fetch regions will be.
While it is looking more likely that the largest waves will be aimed
towards Oregon and California from the Friday/Saturday system, the
Sunday/Monday system favors a more northward track with the largest
waves aimed towards the Washington coast. There is a 5-10% chance of
waves exceeding 30 ft at the peak wave height Sunday night.
62/15/HPR
&&
.HYDROLOGY...The Skokomish River is receding and will fall below
flood stage around midnight. The river will remain elevated
Thursday into Friday then rise back above flood stage later
Friday into the weekend with another round of heavy rain over
the Olympics.
River flooding is not expected on the other rivers in the area
in the next 7 days at this time. Felton
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Friday for Grays Harbor
Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Northern Inland
Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
Admiralty Inlet.
Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James
Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion