Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
909
FXUS66 KSEW 071631
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
831 AM PST Sat Mar 7 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering showers continue today, especially closer to the
mountains. A colder weather system arrives early next week,
bringing an initial round of mountain snow Sunday night into
Monday. Additional disturbances follow through the week ahead,
with continued mountain snow and the potential for early morning
mix of rain and snow for the interior lowlands. A stronger
system arrives around midweek, with a warmer air mass and
continued rain likely later in the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper-level ridge and associated surface high are persisting over
the NE PAC. Downstream, an elongated trough is stretching into the
SW USA and becoming cutoff from the mean-flow near the Four Corners
region. These features are leaving the PNW under a regime of NW flow
aloft. For today, light showers are in the forecast across W WA,
mainly along the mountains and coastal areas. A stout 1035 mb
surface high as mentioned is interacting with lower pressure inland
as breezy SW winds are in the forecast for the Puget Sound region.
Gusts upwards of 30-35 mph are possible into the evening. Highs
today are topping out in the lower to mid 50s with overnight lows in
the 40s.
Conditions will begin to amplify on Sunday as the ridge of high
pressure retrogrades slightly - opening up the pattern to widespread
precipitation and cooler temperatures. As the upper-level flow turns
more zonal, a frontal system over the Gulf of Alaska is expected to
funnel steadier lowland rainfall during the early morning hours on
Sunday while simultaneously bringing snow levels down towards pass
level by the afternoon. A brief lull in the action is possible
towards the evening but models are indicating the potential for the
development of a convergence zone late overnight into Monday morning
along with more widespread precipitation. 24-hour snowfall ending
Monday evening suggests upwards of 8-12" is possible for much of the
Cascades including Snoqualmie Pass, Stevens Pass and Mt. Baker Ski
area. The NBM suggests a 30-40% chance of snowfall exceeding 12"
during this time. Highs are to remain in the lower 50s on Sunday
before settling into the mid 40s on Monday. Overnight lows will be
in the lower to mid 30s Sunday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold and wet pattern continues through the first part of the
week with strong westerly flow maintaining steady precipitation.
Ensemble guidance remains fairly consistent with this cooler
air spreading into the region, which will maintain the potential
for rain/snow mix or even brief periods of snow for the
interior lowlands during the overnight hours.
In general, however, low elevation impacts are likely to remain
limited with lows only around 30 and warming up during the day
into the 40s. This should limit the potential for any notable
accumulations for the lowest elevations; the exception would be
if heavier precipitation rates persist over an area in the late
evening through early morning hours. For those in the 500-1500
ft elevations, showers might bring a light accumulation during
the overnight hours that doesn`t linger too long.
Otherwise, a stronger disturbance Tuesday and Wednesday will
maintain periods of heavy snow at the Cascade passes and bring
winter travel conditions during these days this week. Snow
levels will creep up late Wednesday and into Thursday, bringing
an end to the threat of snow in the lower elevations but
maintaining additional snowfall in the Cascades and Olympics.
Each of these passing disturbances through the week will also
bring periods of breezy winds, especially again around
Wednesday.
With the snow levels rising and heavy rainfall continuing, will
need to keep a close eye on river levels on the Skokomish River
in Mason County as the majority of precipitation midweek in the
Skokomish basin will fall as rain, bringing the potential for
the river to reach flood stage this week.
&&
.AVIATION...
West-northwesterly flow aloft will continue through
tonight, transitioning westerly on Sunday as a frontal system slides
southwards. Abundant low level moisture exists this morning with
widespread MVFR/IFR cigs. MVFR/IFR cigs will continue into Sunday,
with light rain or drizzle at times, leading to brief reductions in
vsbys, with steadier rain returning on Sunday. South to southwest
winds through the TAF period, with breezy conditions for Puget Sound
sites, leading to periodic gusts ranging between 20 to 27 kts.
KSEA...MVFR/IFR cigs this morning with drizzle at times. Low end
MVFR cigs will continue through the TAF period, with periods of IFR,
mainly through 20z this morning. Areas of drizzle this morning may
continue at times into this afternoon, leading to brief vsby
reductions, mainly between 4-6 statute miles. Steadier rain returns
mainly after 12z Sunday. South-southwest surface winds of 8 to 14
kts through Sunday morning. Wind gusts will increase this afternoon,
with gusts ranging between 20 to 27 kts, gusts will peak between 19z
Saturday to 02z Sunday. Winds will remain elevated overnight. JD
&&
.MARINE...
A fairly complex pattern will develop over the waters this
weekend through the first part of next week, with several marine
hazards in the coming days. First, expect gusty southerly winds
to increase today and tonight with frequent gusts around 25 kt
through much of the Puget Sound/Hood Canal zone. An advisory has
been issued as a result. Some of these gusts will also spill
into portions of the northern inland waters, but the areal
coverage will not be as extensive.
The next pair of hazards will be strongest westerly winds
through the Strait of Juan de Fuca late tonight into Sunday,
with 60-70% chance of at least some winds reaching advisory
thresholds, and building seas winds/seas over the coastal waters.
Will hold off on any additional advisories for now, with the
most likely scenario being additional advisory strength winds
over much of the waters and 10 ft seas building by early Sunday
and continuing into Monday. Conditions remain elevated through
the first half of next week with consistent northwest winds
making a run toward 20-25 kt and seas remaining at or above 10
ft. A stronger frontal system Tuesday night into Wednesday will
bring more widespread advisory southerly winds as well as seas
over the coastal waters around 15 ft. In summary, a quite active
week ahead that will likely feature several rounds of small
craft advisories for most of the local waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy precipitation over the Olympics, combined at times with
snow levels rising will force rises on the Skokomish River with
the potential for flooding late next week. No other river
flooding is expected during the next seven days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PST Sunday for Puget Sound
and Hood Canal.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion