Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
916
FXUS66 KSEW 101848
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1048 AM PST Sat Jan 10 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
An atmospheric river will produce periods of moderate to heavy
rain from tonight through Monday night. This rain, along with a
mild air mass brining snow levels rising above pass level, with
bring rises on many area rivers. Flooding is expected on the
Skokomish River. Strong high pressure then builds into the
region by the middle of the week, bringing a stretch of dry
conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High and mid level clouds continue to filter across the region
early this morning as a warm front approaches the outer coastal
waters. The high clouds and weak low level offshore flow have
managed to limit low cloud and fog formation thus far this
morning. Rain will shift onshore along the coast ahead of the
front this afternoon then spread to interior areas tonight.
Periods of moderate to heavy rain will develop by early Sunday
with snow levels rising above the passes as the axis of an
atmospheric river settles over the northern two thirds of the
CWA. Heaviest precip is expected in the Olympics and the
north/central Cascades. Sharp rises are expected on the rivers
with the Skokomish expected to reach flood stage. More detail
can be found in the hydrology discussion section.
Breezy to locally windy conditions will develop later tonight
through Sunday, but speeds presently are expected to remain
sub-advisory levels. The windiest period looks to be Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night...particularly for the North
Interior and coastal areas. Wet conditions continue into Monday
with the axis of heaviest precipitation expected across the
northern half of the forecast area. As is typical with mild
atmospheric rivers, temperatures will remain several degrees
above seasonal averages.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper ridging centered well to our south begins to build
northward Monday night into Tuesday which will shove the
moisture northward back into British Columbia and begin to allow
the area to dry out. Models continue to try to bring a weak
front into the area on Wednesday, but dissipate it quickly as it
runs into the ridge. It wouldn`t be surprising if the front
disappears entirely in subsequent model runs. High amplitude
ridging builds overhead to end the week leading to what is
expected to be an extended period of dry mid-winter weather.
27
&&
.AVIATION...
The leading edge of the precipitation next frontal system is
approaching a roughly KBLI to KCLM line this morning, with
gusty southerly winds ahead of the front and low MVFR ceilings
and restricted visibility in rain along the frontal band. Expect
increasing clouds and lowering ceilings spreading southeastward,
with likely MVFR ceilings to cover the coast this evening and
across the region by 12z Sunday. . Front moving into the area
from the northwest will stall over the northwest portion of the
area tonight and Sunday for rather consistent conditions through
much of Sunday.
KSEA...VFR conditions through the afternoon with southeast winds
around 6 to 9 kt, Expect lowering ceilings tonight with
steadier rain and MVFR conditions expected 08-12z Sunday and
continuing through much of the day.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the waters will weaken today. A front will
move into the northern portion of the waters tonight and remain
stationary into Monday. The front will lift north Monday night
with high pressure rebuilding over the waters. The high will
remain over the area through late in the week.
Small craft advisory winds along the coast, entrances to the
Strait of Juan de Fuca, Admiralty Inlet and the Northern Inland
waters for the most part through the weekend into Monday. Winds
easing later Monday into Monday night.
Seas building to 10 to 15 feet today and tonight and to 12 to
18 feet Sunday. Seas beginning to subside Monday lowering to 9
to 11 feet Monday night and to 6 to 8 feet Tuesday. Felton
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding is expected through most of the weekend.
Precipitation guidance continues to trend up leading to an
increased concern for potential river flooding. The Skokomish
River in Mason County is forecast to reach flood stage late
Sunday night and crest in moderate flood stage Monday. For the
remainder of the rivers, crest forecasts have increased
significantly over the northern portion of the interior with the
latest forecast run. While none of the rivers are currently
forecast to reach flood stage, numerous rivers from King county
northward are now forecast to crest in action stage Monday or
Tuesday. In addition to the increasing precipitation amounts in
the forecast, snow levels will rise from around 4500 feet later
today when the precipitation starts to around 7500 feet by
Monday night when the precipitation tapers off. Have added
King, Snohomish, Skagit and Whatcom counties to the hydrologic
outlook with the increase in the crest forecasts for possible
flooding Monday and Tuesday. Mason county remains in the
hydrologic outlook for the threat of flooding on the Skokomish
beginning late Sunday.
This event is likely to be followed by a dry period, allowing
for rivers to recede mid to late next week. Felton
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 6 AM PST
Monday for Grays Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Admiralty Inlet-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern
Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-West
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion