Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
181
FXUS66 KSEW 290958
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
158 AM PST Thu Jan 29 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of weather systems will continue to bring periods of
precipitation and locally gusty winds through Friday. High
pressure briefly rebuilds Saturday for a warmer and drier day
before another system arrives Sunday. High pressure returns and
strongly rebuilds over the region next week bringing a stretch
of warmer and drier conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A low pressure system is located just off the Washington coast
this morning and is bringing a round of rain to the area this
morning. The heaviest rain is occuring along the Pacific coast
and along the west/south slopes of the Olympics, while much of
the interior will be mostly shadowed. Breezy winds are also
being observed with this system, primarily along the coast and
northern interior with gusts 25-35 mph being observed. These
conditions will continue though the late morning until the cold
front traverses the area late morning. Scattered showers may
continue, mainly over the mountain, through the remainder of the
day. There will not be much of a break as the warm front from
the next system begins to move onshore tonight, bringing renewed
chances for rain and locally breezy conditions across the area
on Friday. With the heaviest precipitation focused on the
Olympics, that will be the primary focus for potential
hydrologic impacts. With snow levels 5000-6000 ft, rain will
also be observed through the mountain passes. Temperatures will
remain mostly steady, with highs in the low 50s and lows in the
mid 40s.
On Saturday, a building upper level ridge will briefly build
across the area, allowing conditions to dry out and warm up for
most. A few light showers may be able to persist over the higher
elevations and the north coast. Highs will rise into the mid
50s to near 60. Lows a bit cooler, in the lower 40s.
Large waves will continue to build up to around 16-18 ft along
the coast early this morning, developing high surf conditions.
Waves should begin to subside tonight.
62
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Another upper level trough will send a surface frontal system
across the area on Sunday, returning to wet and cooler
conditions with highs back into the low 50s. An upper level
ridge will move in and begin to build on Monday, but another
warm front may just skirt the region, keeping chances for rain
in the forecast, in particular for the northwestern portions of
the area. Models continue to be in good agreement that the
aforementioned ridge will continue to develop and amplify into
an omega blocking pattern from Tuesday going into the middle of
next week, allowing conditions to dry out and warm up once
again, back into the upper 50s to near 60.
The threat for coastal flooding will also return this weekend
into early next week. At this time, the weather does not look
to significantly exacerbate impacts, with only minor impacts
currently expected primarily for sensitive areas in the Puget
Sound and Salish Sea. The coastal flooding threat will continue
to be evaluated and refined throughout the week.
62
&&
.AVIATION...
West to southwest flow aloft will continue across western
Washington through the TAF period with broad troughing over the
northeastern Pacific and upper ridging inland. Widespread rain
continues to move in across western Washington early this morning
ahead of an approaching frontal system. Rain will taper to
showers by mid to late morning in its wake, but another round
of more widespread rain will move into the region later this
afternoon into this evening as the next warm front brushes the
area. Conditions at the area terminals are primarily VFR to MVFR
this morning, though can`t rule out conditions briefly dropping
to IFR in heavier rain. Conditions will generally rebound back
to VFR by mid morning, but look to drop back down to MVFR by
this evening with the next round of rain. Gusty southeast surface
winds are expected for the coastal areas and the northern interior
terminals this morning as the front moves through and again
late tonight into early Friday.
KSEA...VFR conditions continue this morning with light rain at
the terminal. Conditions may briefly drop to MVFR in any heavier
rain passing through this morning. Surface winds S/SE at 10-15
kt with occasional gusts to around 20 kt expected through the
morning. Winds will ease back towards 5-10 kt by 18Z. Another
round of more widespread rain will move into the terminal this
evening, with a 40 percent chance of ceilings lowering down to
MVFR between 23-02Z.
14
&&
.MARINE...
A warm front brushing the region will be followed by a cold
front moving across the area waters today. Winds across the
waters will be gusty as result, with southerly gales expected
for the coastal waters and the East Entrance of the Strait of
Juan de Fuca through the morning hours. Winds will ease in its
wake, but will remain breezy across the coastal waters and
northern interior waters through much of the day with small
craft southerlies expected. Coastal seas will continue to build
towards 16-18 ft through the morning hours.
Another warm front will move into the area waters tonight and
will be followed by a trailing cold front on Friday. This system
will bring yet another round of southerly gales to the coastal
waters and the eastern Strait and small craft strength southerlies
to the northern interior waters into Friday morning. Coastal
seas will remain elevated between 12-16 ft.
The pattern will remain active into early next week, with another,
weaker system expected to move across the area waters over the
weekend. Seas will subside heading into the weekend and will
generally range between 9-12 ft heading into early next week.
14
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A series of systems moving across the region will bring multiple
rounds of rain to western Washington through Friday, with the
highest amounts remaining aimed at the Olympic Peninsula.
Conditions are still on track to see an additional 1-3 inches
of rain for the south facing slopes of the Olympics, with
localized 4+ inches still possible in spots. This, along with
rising snow levels, will likely lead to flooding on the Skokomish
River by late morning today. Additional rainfall over the
weekend could keep the Skokomish river in or close to flood
stage over the weekend. Other rivers draining from the Olympics
will continue to be closely monitored with each round of rain,
but river flooding is not expected elsewhere.
14
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Flood Watch through late Friday night for Foothills of the
Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-Middle Chehalis
River Valley-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-
Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills.
High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Grays
Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Grays
Harbor Bar-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PST this morning for Central
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning until noon PST today for East Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST Friday for
East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 7 PM PST this evening
for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Admiralty Inlet-
Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Puget
Sound and Hood Canal.
Gale Warning until 10 AM PST this morning for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST Friday for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 PM PST this
afternoon for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To
James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island
To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James
Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion