Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
145
FXUS66 KSEW 221626
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
926 AM PDT Wed Apr 22 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will continue this morning, as well as breezy winds
today as an upper level moves through to the south. Drier and
warmer conditions will begin Thursday and continue through this
weekend with a stronger ridge of high pressure building
offshore.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No major updates this morning. Latest radar imagery shows that
rain activity is starting to retreat southwards as the upper
level low over Oregon continues to propagate eastward. 29
Westerly surface flow will help to maintain convergence across
the Puget Sound, with increased chances for continued cloudiness
and showers there through much of the day. Winds will likely
remain elevated throughout the day with a few gusts up to 20 to
30 mph as the system moves through. With snow levels above 5000
to 6000 ft, the vast majority of precipitation will fall as rain
over the mountains.
Winds and rain begin to taper off overnight into early Thursday
as the system departs to the east and upper level ridging
develops over the northeast Pacific, putting western Washington
under drier, northwesterly flow aloft. As a shortwave rides
along the upper low over eastern Washington, there will still
be some slight chances for showers for portions of the Cascades.
However, the remainder of the area should remain mostly dry.
Snow levels will lower to around 3000 to 4000 ft, so there may
be some light mixed precip or flurries, but no significant
accumulations are expected. Onshore flow will continue to
prevail at the surface on Thursday with continued convergence
over the Puget Sound, mostly in the way of increased clouds
whereas most other places will see more sunshine Thursday.
Higher confidence in more area-wide sunshine Friday as surface
gradients turn offshore and a thermal trough begins to build
along the coast. Winds will increase on Friday as north-south
gradients temporarily increase with low pressure nudging
northward from Oregon.
Clearer skies and lighter winds will allow for warming daytime
highs--into the mid to upper 60s by Friday--and relatively cool
overnight lows--in the upper 30s to to low 40s. With the system
not far away, chances will linger for some light precipitation
over the Cascades. High temperatures will return to near 60
Thursday, further increasing to the mid 60s on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models show a fairly steady weather pattern continuing into the
weekend and early next week with mostly dry conditions, highs in
the low to mid 60s, and lows in the 40s. Winds remain mostly
light though offshore flow will continue into the weekend,
keeping relative humidity dry. Deterministic models are hinting
at several weak shortwaves move across the area starting early
next week, but the vast majority of ensemble members are keeping
the area dry, with only slight chances for showers across
portions of southwest Washington and the Cascades at this time.
62
&&
.AVIATION...
North to northwesterly flow aloft will develop as an upper level
trough gradually shifts east of the area. The air mass is moist and
generally stable with widespread IFR and low MVFR ceilings. Areas of
light rain across the southern portion of the area will gradually
diminish today. Ceilings will be slow to improve with MVFR
persisting from around KPAE southward into this afternoon. Low end
VFR is expected across far northern areas late this afternoon.
Residual low level moisture is expected to bring a return of MVFR
ceilings across the region tonight into Thursday morning.
KSEA...Ceilings will be slow to improve today as deformation band
precip gradually diminishes. Some lifting to low MVFR is expected
after around 18Z with low end VFR after 00Z. There`s around a 50%
chance of some higher MVFR ceilings on Thursday morning before VFR
returns by late morning. Surface winds southerly 8 to 12 knots
easing to under 8 knots late tonight.
27
&&
.MARINE...
Broad high pressure is remaining well offshore for an onshore flow
pattern. The flow will turn more northerly over area waters Friday
into Saturday with a broad surface ridge over the western Canadian
provinces and lower pressure over the Pacific Northwest.
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the Central/East
Strait of Juan de Fuca, coastal waters and Puget Sound for
today. Seas will build and steepen over the coastal waters
today up to 11 to 15 ft, as well as nearing rough bar criteria
at Grays Harbor by tonight. Seas will then gradually subside
later Thursday into the weekend.
41
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding is expected in the next seven days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT
Thursday for Grays Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for Central
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Puget
Sound and Hood Canal.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion