Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
278
FXUS66 KSEW 032321
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
321 PM PST Sat Jan 3 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather is in store through next week with periods of
lowland rain, breezy winds and mountain snow. A threat of
coastal flooding is also during this time. Upper- ridging
possible towards the second half of next week but some
uncertainty remains.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
KATX and KLGX are indicating scattered showers across western
Washington so far this afternoon. An upper-trough offshore is
mainly responsible for this activity as the trend remains
tonight through Sunday. Aforementioned troughing will not only
progress gently but swing additional shortwaves into the region
with periods of lowland rain, mountain snow, and breezy winds. A
convergence zone will likely set up into Monday with more
sustained precipitation for the central Puget Sound region.
48-hour QPF ending Monday night will see the lowlands ranging
generally between 0.25-0.50", coastal areas topping out between
0.50-1.00" and 1.00-1.50" for the mountains. Snow levels 4,000
to 5,000` tonight before falling below Cascade Pass levels to
1,500 to 2,500` by Monday evening. Temperatures will gradually
cool throughout the short-term with highs in the upper 40s on
Sunday with mid 40s on Monday. Overnight lows tonight in the 40s
with 30s Sunday night and Monday night.
Coastal flooding remains an issue through Sunday as well with
warnings in place for the Pacific coast with inundation of 2.5
to 3.25 feet above ground level possible with the high tides.
Warnings are also in place for the San Juans and western Whatcom
county. For the inland waters inundation values are forecast to
be a little lower, in the 1.5 to 2.5 foot range. A Coastal
Flood Advisory is up for these areas as well on Sunday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Extended models in good agreement with a series of systems
embedded in the northwesterly flow aloft moving through Western
Washington Tuesday through Thursday. Snow levels remaining
below the passes through the period, in general 1500 to 2500
feet. Heavy snow fall is expected Tuesday through Thursday.
Model solutions start to diverge late in the period with the
ECMWF hinting at some upper level ridging while the GFS brings
another system down from the northwest late Friday. Ensembles
favoring a drier solution so will have limited pops for Friday.
Temperatures near or slightly below normal through the period.
&&
.AVIATION...
Southerly flow aloft as upper level trough offshore
continues to rotates disturbances into western Washington.
Improved conditions this afternoon mainly to VFR, with some
locations still seeing MVFR conditions. This improvement will be
brief, as another disturbance moves in this evening with more
rain showers. Conditions look to diminish to MVFR/IFR in spots,
continuing into Sunday morning. Southerly winds will increase
tonight through 18z, with winds 10 to 15 knots expected, with
occasional gusts up to 20 to 25 knots at times.
KSEA...VFR conditions this afternoon as conditions continue to
improve. Conditions will start to lower to MVFR as another round
of rain moves over the terminal. MVFR conditions will likely
continue through 18z, before improvement to VFR. Southerly winds
will increase by early Sunday morning (14z-17z) to 10 to 15
knots sustained, with gusts up to 25 knots at times. Winds will
then subside by the early afternoon, turning more southwest.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.MARINE...
A surface low over the coastal waters will start to move
northeast and weaken late Sunday. As it moves northeast,
elevated southerly winds will continue over the coastal waters
and interior waters through Sunday. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect for the coast for the combination of wind and
seas. For the interior, small craft advisories will remain
through Sunday afternoon for increased southerlies.
Another system looks to cross over the area waters on late
Monday into Tuesday for another round of elevated winds and
seas.
Combined seas 8 to 10 feet this afternoon, building upwards to
10 to 14 feet later tonight. Seas look to then subside to around
7 to 9 feet late Sunday into Monday.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Multiple frontal systems will move through western Washington
into next week. The Skokomish River is forecast to rise into Sunday,
but currently expected to remain below flood stage. The river
will slowly recede Monday into Tuesday before rising again
midweek. The river is forecast to approach flood stage later
Wednesday. No additional river flooding is expected the next 7
days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Coastal Flood Watch Sunday morning for Lowlands of Western
Whatcom County-San Juan County.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM PST this afternoon for
Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Western Strait of Juan de
Fuca.
Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM PST this afternoon for Grays
Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
Coastal Flood Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday
afternoon for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern
Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 5 PM PST Sunday
for Grays Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 1 PM PST Sunday
for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San
Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal-West Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion