Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
125
FXUS66 KSEW 040340
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
840 PM PDT Wed Jun 3 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Cooler temperatures are expected through the weekend as low
pressure lingers over the area. Isolated showers are expected
through Friday, with chances for thunderstorms in the Cascades.
A more widespread thunderstorm threat exists on Saturday as the
low pressure system parks overhead. Unsettled conditions linger
into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The main line of showers moved through Puget Sound this
afternoon, with weak convergence zone activity expected this
evening. Rainfall has not amounted to much if anything in this
band of activity, as the lower atmosphere is still relatively
dry following yesterday`s heat. The threat for thunderstorms has
greatly diminished this evening along the Cascades, with
current chances at 10% or less.
Weak high pressure will build in on Thursday, but will
ultimately behave more like zonal flow. Expect cloudy conditions
in the morning, breaking out to partly cloudy in the afternoon
with highs in the 60s to low 70s. Deep low pressure in the Gulf
of Alaska will drift south on Friday, ejecting a shortwave off
the parent low and bringing in enough moisture for another round
of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms (10-20% chance)
to the Olympics and portions of the central and northern
Cascades. Highs on Friday dip back into the low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The aforementioned low pressure system will traverse directly
overhead on Saturday, increasing the favorability of more
widespread area thunderstorms in the afternoon. Current guidance
suggests a 20-30% chance of thunderstorms on Saturday across
western Washington. Right now, the primary hazards will be
lightning and gusty/erratic winds. The low moves east on
Sunday, clearing things up a bit but warming temperatures up
around 4 to 6 degrees into the upper 60s.
Unsettled weather persists into early next week as more low
pressure systems drop in from the Gulf of Alaska. While there
are some positioning discrepancies within the ensembles as it
pertains to the low pressure, general consensus is reasonably
consistent with it lingering through the first half of next
week. Beyond then, potential scenarios start to diverge.
&&
.AVIATION...
Flow aloft becoming westerly this evening as an upper level trough
traverses the area. VFR conditions continue with upper level clouds
as a frontal system approaches offshore. As the system moves through
this evening, MVFR to IFR conditions have develop along the coast.
In the interior, most places will be low-end VFR to higher-end MVFR,
except over northern King/southern Snohomish counties where a
convergence zone is set to develop late this evening and persist
into early Thursday morning, where MVFR cigs will be more likely.
Ceilings will slowly lift and scatter during the morning on
Thursday. S/SW winds 8-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt will ease to around
5-10 kt overnight and remain like so into Thursday. Winds switch to
N at PAE, but the convergence zone looks to remain north of the
Seattle terminals.
KSEA...VFR conditions continue through tonight, then lowering to low
end VFR/high end MVFR after around 06-09Z Thu. Ceilings look to
start to lift and scatter around 16-19Z Thur. SW winds prevail
through the TAF period, generally around 8-12 kt.
62/41
&&
.MARINE...
A frontal system will continue to traverse the area waters this into
tonight. A surface ridge will build in quickly behind the front
offshore. Winds will increase through the Strait of Juan de Fuca
this evening, allowing for the Small Craft Advisory to continue.
Winds will ease slightly Thursday morning but remain above
thresholds through Thursday evening, when the surface ridge offshore
begins to ease. A broad low pressure system will move in from the
Gulf of Alaska Friday into the weekend, which will allow for onshore
flow to continue. Weak pushes will continue down the Strait of Juan
de Fuca each afternoon/evening, with the push on Saturday evening
being the most likely to warrant additional headlines. Another
frontal system looks to approach and move through the area waters
early next week.
Seas remain 6-8 ft or less through the next seven days.
62
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Rain from the showers progressing through western Washington
has struggled to culminate in anything measurable, largely
evaporated by a drier atmosphere from yesterday`s heat. Relative
humidity this afternoon is generally between 30 to 45 percent,
despite the clouds and cooler temperatures. The next period to
watch will be Saturday as an expanded threat of thunderstorms is
forecast for the area. Lightning will be a primary hazard, and
depending on the moisture accompanying each thunderstorm, may
pose a risk to drier areas of grasses/cured fuels. Preceding
cool conditions (and live fuels still growing and in the green
up phase) will limit holdover risk as a rapid warmup is not
expected.
21
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion