Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
144
FXUS66 KSEW 010500
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
900 PM PST Sat Feb 28 2026
.UPDATE...
Satellite imagery shows high clouds over the southern portion of
the area with mostly clear skies to the north. Temperatures at 9
PM/05Z were in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
Upper level low west of the Oregon California border will move
east overnight eventually weakening and moving inland Sunday
evening. This will keep some high cloud cover from about Olympia
southward through Sunday. Upper level ridge over the area Sunday
night will shift east Monday opening the door to a weather
system for Tuesday. Current forecast has the trends covered. No
updates this evening. Previous discussion below with updated
aviation section.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level high pressure builds over the region and holds
through the weekend into the start of next week. The ridge
breaks down early in the week, with a return to mountain snow
and lowland rain late in the next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level ridge remains overhead the region, and much of the
west coast today. A jet core to the north and a trough offshore to
the southwest is keeping the flow northerly across the region. With
high pressure in control, the weather is largely quiet this weekend
into early next week. The cloud coverage will decrease this evening
into Sunday/early Monday. The best chance of fog development is
Sunday morning in the south interior, where the combination of
cooler temperatures/lighter winds may lead to dense fog. Otherwise
the next chance of precipitation will be a 30-40% chance of PoPs
along the coast Monday afternoon with a small trough perturbation.
Otherwise, high temperatures will increase into the mid and upper
50s in the lowlands Sunday/Monday, with lows Sunday and Monday
morning in the 30s. Winds will be out of the north/northeast through
the weekend, and could get a tough breezy in spots, but otherwise
will remain in the 5-10 mph range.
HPR
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Expect a shift in the pattern to develop on Tuesday with the
next front pushing into the region. Reasonably good agreement
with the majority (70-80%) of ensemble members bringing the
initial front into the region early Tuesday. The pattern looks
to remain active through the week with rain, mountain snow,
breezy winds at times as the pattern remains active through the
late stages of next week. In these rounds of snow, the chances
for reaching advisory amounts are highest (40-50%) in the North
Cascades but with the most likely snow levels hovering around
4000 ft impacts to the Cascade passes look to be limited.
Ensembles diverge a bit into the weekend with differences
emerging with about an equal split between continued active
pattern or a return to drier conditions under higher heights.
&&
.AVIATION... A flat upper level ridge positioned to the southwest
part of the state will keep northwesterly flow aloft into Sunday.
Surface winds for most terminals remaining out of the north with
some variances to the NE or NW at times. Exceptions are CLM and HQM,
where winds are taking more of an easterly direction. Speeds to
remain typically around 5-10 kts, however some spots may see speeds
ease overnight to 5 kts or less.
VFR conditions in place over W WA this evening, although a very
visible line of clouds is impacting the south Sound and points
south. This will allow for MVFR cigs OLM and HQM overnight into
Sunday morning /with potential for isolated IFR cigs/ while
remaining terminals should stay VFR...although some FEW/SCT low
clouds will be possible. Widespread VFR conditions expected to
return by late Sunday morning.
KSEA...VFR conditions likely to persist through the TAF period.
While a slight chance exists for MVFR cigs at or near the terminal
early Sunday morning, confidence is not there to warrant inclusion
in the forecast. Northerly winds generally running 5-10 kts.
18
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure continues to develop with breezy northerly winds
over much of the waters and weakly offshore component driving
winds through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. A few gusts in the
afternoon may get to around 20 kt, but in general conditions
will remain below advisory thresholds. Meanwhile, seas are
generally around 5 to 6 ft over the coastal waters this weekend.
Expect the next round of advisory conditions Tuesday as the
next frontal system reaches the waters, with continued winds
into the second half of the week. At this point, though, the
likelihood for gales remains quite low, less than 10-15%. Seas
will build again later in the week, getting a little choppy
around midweek in conjunction with the stronger winds and then
building to around 10 ft by Friday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding is expected during the next seven days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion