Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
427
FXUS66 KSEW 302120
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
220 PM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will continue to weaken into Saturday, with
drying and cooling conditions through the weekend. Upper level
ridging will build through the first half of next week for
continued dry conditions, before additional systems look to
arrive by midweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Recent radar imagery shows a bulk of showers moving in from the
south, with some areas over the Puget Sound seeing continuous
rainfall. High temperatures in the low to mid 50s across much
of the interior. Showers will continue this afternoon before
decreasing in coverage and intensity by the overnight hours. An
upper level low will start to move southwards and weaken, taking
away the showery influence over western Washington. We`ll start
a dry and cool trend heading into the weekend, with afternoon
temps staying in the low 50s. Overnight lows, especially tonight
into Saturday morning, will cool, with areas in the Southwest
Interior seeing below freezing temperatures in the upper 20s and
low 30s. Therefore, the Freeze Watch has been upgraded to a
Freeze Warning for those locations. Crops and sensitive
vegetation may die as a result of temperatures that low, so
take the proper precautions to protect things like that if
needed. Besides the cold temperatures, should be dry for any
trick or treaters.
Dry and cool conditions through Sunday over the region.
Overnight low temperatures will be flirting with freezing
temperatures as well, in the low 30s.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ensemble guidance remains in reasonably good agreement for the first
half of next week with an upper ridge remaining generally over the
region for the start of next week. This will maintain mostly dry
conditions, though a portion of ensemble members bring a weak
disturbance into the ridge enough to bring some light precipitation
chances (20-30%) west of Puget Sound. Another weak disturbance
brings similar chances toward midweek. A more notable shift in the
pattern becomes more likely late in the week with a stronger front
approaching Western Washington, but it`s worth noting that there`s
significantly increasing spread in the potential evolution of the
pattern by that time. Cullen
&&
.AVIATION...
Another round of steadier rain is rotating through the region this
afternoon with two main areas - one across central Puget Sound and
another along the coast. Each of this is bringing fairly widespread
rain which is lowering ceilings and restricting visibility into the
MVFR to IFR categories. While there was one small embedded
thunderstorm in the coastal line, the chances for more lightning
remains too low (10-15%) for TAF inclusion. After these next few
areas pivot across the area through this evening, shower activity
should subside with gradual clearing. However, the light winds and
clearing skies bring likely IFR conditions in fog/low stratus for
most terminals late tonight through Saturday morning. Return to VFR
conditions likely as fog scatters and lifts into the afternoon
tomorrow.
KSEA...MVFR conditions are expected in steadier rain this afternoon.
Northerly winds will become east/southeast by late evening, with
rain tapering early tonight. This should bring a gradual clearing
trend, but this will result in IFR fog/low stratus Saturday morning
at the terminal lasting through late morning or midday. Cullen
&&
.MARINE...Weak surface low pressure over the coastal waters
will remain in place into Saturday before dissipating as high
pressure builds across the interior of Western Washington early
in the coming week. Southeasterly winds over the coastal waters
this afternoon will reach 15 to 20 kts at times, but should
remain under small craft advisory criteria. Winds look to remain
generally benign and light across the area waters through the
first half of next week.
Coastal seas 4 to 6 feet through the weekend. Seas will build to
slowly build late Sunday into Monday, back around 10 to 11 feet
as a larger swell train approaches.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM PDT Saturday for
Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Middle
Chehalis River Valley.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion