Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
708
FXUS66 KSEW 240342
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
842 PM PDT Thu Jul 23 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Shower and thunderstorm chances expected to ease tonight. An
upper level trough offshore will then push inland over the
weekend, bringing cooler temperatures to the area and additional
chances of showers. Troughing will persist through early next
week, allowing for temperatures to trend just below to near
normal.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Thunderstorm activity has dwindled this evening and just a few
showers along the US/Canada border remain. Stubborn low- level
cloud cover hindered thunderstorm development over the Cascades
this afternoon/evening. Showers and thunderstorm chances will
continue to ease tonight as the trough offshore beings to lift
northward. Marine stratus will likely fill back in tonight,
allowing for low temperatures to reach the mid 50s to near 60.
Stratus should give way to mostly sunny skies on Friday,
allowing for high temperatures to bump up a bit compared to
today, reaching back into the low to mid 80s across the
interior, with 70s elsewhere.
The upper trough offshore finally traverses the area Friday
night into Saturday, bringing stronger onshore flow and more
clouds, as well as chances for showers along the coast and the
mountains. This will also help to push high temperatures below
normal, with high temperatures in the mid 70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Chances for showers will continue Saturday night into Sunday as
another shortwave trough moves through the area. Temperatures on
Sunday similar to Saturday, in the mid 70s. Looking forward
into next week, upper level troughing remain the dominant
influence across the area as several systems move down from the
Gulf of Alaska. Some model solutions show the upper level high
over the Four Corners region retrograding westward, which may
allow highs to warm towards the end of the week, otherwise
temperatures generally remain around climatological normals
with mostly dry conditions after Monday.
&&
.AVIATION...
An upper level low will continue to spin offshore the Pacific
Northwest tonight. Thunderstorm activity has moved north into
Victoria, and the thunder threat has ended for the evening across
western WA terminals. Showers to the north near KBLI will continue
to move north and exit into B.C. this evening as well. In wake of
the convection, most terminals are VFR this evening with the
exception of the coast, where IFR stratus has begun to take shape
with the low level moisture. This stratus will advance inland,
reaching the interior by 12Z. There is a 50-60% chance of the
stratus dropping to MVFR for the interior/Puget Sound, and a 20%
chance for brief IFR early morning. Probabilities increase westward
for IFR and LIFR conditions out to the Pacific/Strait of Juan de
Fuca coasts, as well as for visibilities down to a quarter of a mile
as the stratus mixes to the surface for fog/mist. The interior will
see clearing from 18-20Z. Southwesterly winds will generally persist
between 8-12 kts (with some gusts to 20 kt) across the interior
terminals through this evening, before easing and becoming light and
variable tonight around 06Z. Winds become more west Friday with
diffluence from the strait turning winds to the north after 00Z
through the northern portion of Puget Sound.
KSEA...VFR through the evening, with a 60% chance of MVFR stratus
arriving by 12Z, and lasting through 18Z. There is a 20% chance of
this stratus dropping to IFR by early Friday morning. Skies will
clear late Friday morning/afternoon. Southwest winds 8-12 kt will
decrease to 5 kt or less through Friday morning. Winds to turn more
west Friday afternoon, with north winds remaining north of the
terminal for now in the evening.
14/HPR
&&
.MARINE...
Thunderstorm activity has subsided across the coastal waters and
chances for thunderstorms will continue to dwindle into tonight.
A low pressure system will remain offshore the Pacific
Northwest on Friday, before tracking back into the area and
dissipating on Saturday. Onshore flow will prevail over the next
few days, with strongest winds expected to be along the Strait
of Juan de Fuca. Another low pressure system will track
southward from Gulf of Alaska and will stall a frontal boundary
offshore on Saturday before it moves inland on Sunday night.
This may bring some small craft southerlies to portions of the
area waters over the weekend. Another front will follow on
Tuesday.
Seas will generally range between 4-7 ft over the coastal
waters on Friday. A brief uptick in seas to 6-8 ft will be
possible on Saturday, before seas subside back to 4-6 ft again
on Sunday. Seas will then persist within the 4 to 6 ft range
into early next week.
14/29
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The thunderstorm threat has diminished this evening across western
Washington as convection exits north into B.C.. The Red Flag Warning
will be allowed to expire at 10 PM this evening.
The low offshore will make its way over the region, and dissipate as
it moves onshore. This will result in cool temperatures and shower
chances through the weekend into the first part of next week easing
fire weather concerns. Additional thunderstorms are not likely but
can`t be ruled out at this time. JBB/HPR
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Red Flag Warning until 10 PM PDT this evening for Black Hills
and Southwest Interior Lowlands-Central Coastal Lowlands-
East Portion of the Olympic Mountains-North Coastal
Lowlands-North and Central Coastal Strip-West Portion of
the Olympic Mountains-West Slopes of the Central Cascades
Generally above 1500 Feet.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion