Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
519
FXUS66 KSEW 091613
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
913 AM PDT Sat May 9 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak ridge of high pressure will produce partial sunshine and
somewhat warmer temperatures across Western Washington today.
Another weak frontal system will clip the region on Sunday for
additional cloud cover and cooler temperatures. A warming trend
commences Monday and Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds into the
region. A general trend toward more unsettled and cooler
conditions is expected for the second half of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
See below for updated aviation section. The rest of the previous
discussion is valid as no updates have been made this morning. Shortwave
ridging will bring a return of some sunshine and modestly
warmer temperatures for most of the region today. But it will be
short- lived as another front clips the region on Sunday for
additional clouds, cooler temperatures, and perhaps a spotty
shower or some drizzle. Upper ridging begins to amplify over the
Pacific Northwest on Monday as an upper low cuts off several
hundred miles offshore of Northern California. Monday will
feature a return of sun by the afternoon, but breezy north winds
in the afternoon should cap high temperatures in the 60s to
near 70
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday continues to shape up to be the warmest day of the
upcoming week as upper ridging remains in control and the low
level flow turns weakly offshore for a brief period. Per the
usual, the NBM approaches this conservatively with mid/upper 70s
in the warmest spots, but it wouldn`t be surprising for a few
locations to make another run at 80 degrees from around Seattle
southward.
Uncertainty continues to play a significant part in the forecast from
the middle portion of next week onward. While ensembles continue
to struggle with the speed of transition, they do seem to be
latching onto the idea of a flip to more consistent cyclonic
flow with mean troughing taking up residence over the Northeast
Pacific. Given the time of year, it`s nothing terribly exciting,
but it does tip the scale back towards an extended period of
near (or a little below) normal temperatures and periodic
chances of some light precip. 27
&&
.AVIATION...
A brief trough with weak flow aloft will transition into a southwest
zonal flow with winds aloft increasing ahead of another trough off
in the Pacific approaching the coast into Sunday. MVFR/IFR ceilings
along the coast, VFR ceilings elsewhere. Models have the lower areas
of stratus transitioning to high clouds around 18-22Z (for the
coast. Southwest winds 5 kt or less this morning (with a couple
light and variable spots) will transition to northwest winds 5-10 kt
this afternoon becoming light and variable for most tonight. Stratus
probabilities for Sunday remain confined to the coast due to the
likelihood of high stratus overnight.
KSEA...VFR for the remainder of the day and into the night.
Probabilities of low ceilings for Sunday morning is low. Southwest
winds around 5 kt this morning will shift to the northwest around
18Z, picking up to around 4-8 kt in the afternoon, shifting to the
northeast around 5 kt or less late.
HPR/41
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will rebuild into the offshore waters this weekend
into next week. The main concern in this period is diurnal pushes
through the Strait of Juan de Fuca, where winds at times may exceed
20 kt. The next likelihood of this occuring is Sunday afternoon and
evening. Otherwise, winds will remain light and primarily out of the
north going into next week. A few ensembles hint a more organized
system midweek next week.
Seas 4-6 ft with a couple areas potentially seeing 7 ft seas next
week at times.
HPR/41
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next
rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as
needed.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion