Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
051
FXUS66 KSEW 022234
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
334 PM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026
.SYNOPSIS...A ridge will weaken tonight with the low level flow
turning onshore. Upper level trough moving through on
Wednesday. Cold upper level low moving into the area Friday and
Saturday for showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Weak
troughing over the Pacific Northwest early next week with
temperatures close to average.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...High pressure and
offshore flow leading to warm and dry conditions across western
WA today. So far max temps have been in the 70s and 80s with a
few low 90s too. Temps will rise a few more degrees this
afternoon but will stay shy of any daily records. In addition,
fire weather conditions remain elevated due to the warm and dry
conditions with min RHs in the 20s and 30s.
A switch to onshore flow will bring cooler conditions to the
region on Wednesday. Highs will track a good 15-20 degrees
cooler than today with highs in the 60s to lower 70s. A trough
will bring a few showers to the coast and mountains too. The air
mass is slightly unstable over the North Cascades where there`s
a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms (near the crest).
Thursday is dry but we remain under onshore flow. Expect morning
clouds with afternoon sunbreaks and highs near average. 33
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A deep low will spin off
B.C on Friday then shift inland on Saturday, keeping the weather
cool and showery over western WA. Highs both days are only
around 60 degrees with morning lows in the 40s. The air mass
will be cool and unstable with a chance of thunderstorms Friday
night and again Saturday afternoon. Showers with a Puget Sound
Convergence Zone are expected on Saturday in the interior with a
threat of thunderstorms. Shower activity will taper down
Saturday night as the low exits east and weak high pressure
moves in from the west. This ridge keeps us mainly dry moving
into Sunday. Looking ahead, weak upper level troughing over the
region will bring a chance of showers with temperatures close
to average early next week. 33
&&
.AVIATION...Widespread VFR across the terminals this afternoon with
some high clouds passing through. An incoming frontal system will
lead to an increase in mid to high clouds tonight. Ceilings will
gradually decrease overnight into the morning hours, however the
majority of terminals are expected to remain VFR. The only
exception, being terminals along the coast. Ceilings will
deteriorate along the coast late tonight to MVFR. Latest guidance
suggests there is a 20-30% chance of IFR/LIFR cigs between 06z-10z.
There is an isolated risk (15-20%) of thunderstorms for the northern
Cascades Wednesday evening. However, not expecting any impacts to
any of the terminals. WNW winds will continue today, with SW winds
returning after 06z. Onshore flow will increase Wednesday morning,
after 10z. Gusts between 15-20 kt possible for Puget Sound and
Northern Interior terminals.
KSEA...VFR conditions will continue through Wednesday. Mid to high
cloud cover expected to increase tonight. WNW today 4-6 kt. Winds
will transition to SW between 06-07z. Guidance continues to
highlight increased SW winds between 10z-16z, with gusts to 15 kt
possible (70-80% chance).
29
&&
.MARINE...High pressure will continue to weaken today, with a cold front
expected to move over area waters on Wednesday. Diurnal pushes
across the Strait of Juan de Fuca will occur throughout the week.
Latest guidance suggests that the strongest push will be Thursday
evening with high-end small craft winds likely. The chance for gales
remains low, with current chances remaining at 10%. Additional
systems are expected to move over the waters late in the week and
into the weekend. An upper level low will track over the waters
Friday through Saturday, leading to an unstable airmass.
Consequently, there is a small chance (15-20%) of thunderstorms. As
for Friday, thunderstorms are possible for all area waters, with the
highest chances for the coastal waters. As the low pushes inland on
Saturday, the chances of thunderstorms shifts to the interior
waters, with the highest probabilities for Puget Sound.
29
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Elevated fire weather conditions this afternoon
and evening due to warm and dry conditions with highs in the 80s
and min RHs in the 20s. A flip to onshore flow will bring cooler
conditions on Wednesday with higher RHs. Critical fire weather
conditions remain low moving forward. 33
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 11 AM PDT Thursday
for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion