Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
023
FXUS66 KSEW 041756
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
956 AM PST Wed Nov 4 2026
.SYNOPSIS...After today, a pattern change will bring more fall-
like weather to the area with periods of rain, high elevation
mountain snow and gusty winds. Active weather will continue
as we move into next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Western WA will see one
last dry day today before the overall weather pattern turns more
fall-like and active. Patchy fog this morning with clouds
increasing throughout the day. Expect highs in the 50s. A cold
front and trough will move inland this evening and tonight for
wetting rains along the coast and in the mountains. The interior
will see light measurable rain with overall amounts generally
less than a tenth of an inch.
The next weather system moves in late Thursday and Friday as a
deep low shifts east into B.C. This system will bring windy
conditions to the coast and north interior (Everett northward)
Thursday night through Friday morning. The probability of strong
winds remains low, however, minor wind impacts are still
possible. This system will be wetter with 1-2" of rain over the
coast and Olympics, up to an inch in the Cascades, and
0.50-1.00" in the interior through Friday night. In addition,
this system will bring building seas with high surf conditions
possible along the coast. See marine discussion below. 33
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A parade of systems
will barrel through the Pac NW over the long term period
keeping the weather active. There`s little break in the pattern
and expect more fall-like weather through next week. These
systems will bring more rain, high elevation snow, and windy
conditions. JD/33
&&
.AVIATION...Southwest flow aloft will develop today and
increase as a frontal system approaches the region. The front will
shift onshore across Western Washington late this evening. Patchy
fog and low clouds still remains in some areas this morning, with
improvement likely by 20Z. High and mid level clouds will increase
through the day with ceilings lowering to MVFR in rain along the
coast near or after 00Z. These conditions will spread to interior
terminals by 03Z-06Z tonight. Rain will transition to showers by
Thursday morning, with conditions likely drying out by the
afternoon.
KSEA...VFR will prevail through this afternoon before ceilings
deteriorate to MVFR in rain toward 06Z. Light southwesterly winds
around 5 kt this morning then southerly and increasing to 8 to 11
knots this afternoon/evening.
27/29
&&
.MARINE...South/southwesterly winds will start to increase over
the coastal waters this morning as the front approaches the
area. Small Craft Advisories begin across outer coastal waters
first, then including the inner coastal waters by afternoon and
in/near strait entrances tonight as winds increase. Southerly
winds will also increase this afternoon through the interior
Salish Sea from the central Puget Sound up through the southern
Strait of Georgia, but winds are expected to remain below
advisory thresholds. The front moves through late this evening
and winds slowly ease into early Thursday. Seas build back to
10-12 ft tonight and continue into Thursday.
Conditions become more active Thursday night into Friday as another
stronger frontal system traverses the area waters. Winds increase
area-wide overnight, with 60-80% chances for gale force wind gusts
across portions of the coastal waters and the East Strait of Juan de
Fuca through Friday morning. Winds look to slowly weaken during the
day Friday. Seas will also begin to increase Thursday night, in
conjunction with the winds but also as a large, long-period swell
group arrives to the coastal waters. Seas will most likely rise to
around 15-18 ft, through ensemble guidance shows a 25-40% chance of
seas exceeding 20 ft. Seas look to maximize by mid-day Friday before
easing Friday night.
The next frontal system, however, will be on its heels with winds
increasing once again on Saturday, with higher (50-70%) chances for
gale force winds across the coastal waters through early Sunday
morning. Winds remain elevated overnight before easing on Sunday.
Seas rise once again late Saturday up to 16-20 ft during the day
Sunday. Seas ease slightly Sunday night.
Conditions look to remain hazardous going into next week.
Additional frontal systems move near or through the area waters
almost every day, bringing additional periods of strong to gale-
force winds. Deep low centers over the Gulf of Alaska will continue
to generate and send several series of large, longer- period waves
to the coast, keeping seas at least above 12 ft.
62/27
&&
.HYDROLOGY...River flooding is not expected through the next
seven days. However, a series of increasingly wet weather
systems will bring rain (and high mountain snow) to the region,
especially from Friday onward. While current forecasts are not
expected to cause flooding, this will begin to saturate soils
and raise base flows that could bring a concern with subsequent
storms systems.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 AM PST
Thursday for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PST
Thursday for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM PST
this evening for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To
James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island
To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion