Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
185
FXUS66 KSEW 261626
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
926 AM PDT Mon Oct 26 2026
.SYNOPSIS...A weather system will move onshore today across
northwest Oregon, resulting in lingering showers for Western
Washington. Unsettled conditions will continue on Tuesday for
light precipitation. A frontal system will move into the area
late Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing lowland rain, mountain
snow, and breezy conditions. Cooler conditions favored midweek
into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...An upper-level low
pressure system continues to spin offshore towards northwest
Oregon early this morning. As the system pushes east today,
expect lingering shower activity. A weak shortwave will drop
down early Tuesday keeping conditions unsettled. A frontal
system associated with a colder air mass will will move south
from British Columbia into Washington late Tuesday into
Wednesday. This system will bring lowland rain, mountain snow,
cooler temperatures, and breezy winds. Snow levels are expected
to drop Tuesday evening into Wednesday morning to 2500-3500 ft.
These lower snow levels will introduce snow to the passes.
Latest NBM guidance has trended slightly higher for snowfall
amounts. At the moment, guidance suggests the passes may see
between 4-6 inches and higher mountain peaks may receive 8-13
inches by Wednesday evening. Additionally, there is a slight
chance of thunderstorms on Wednesday for the lowlands, with
probabilities currently between 10-15%. As for winds, latest
guidance has wind gusts peaking between 20-25 mph. In the wake
of the cold front passing on Wednesday, high temperatures are
expected to only peak into the upper 40s to low 50s.
29
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...There is
generally good agreement between ensembles that the upper level
low will deepen offshore Thursday through late in the week,
lowering the chances for precipitation over Western Washington.
Cooler temperatures are favored to continue into the weekend.
High temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s. Low temperatures
will be in the 30s, with upper 20s possible in the usual colder
spots. Ensemble members are evenly split on the upper-level
pattern on Sunday. Some members favor a trough over the Pacific
Northwest, while others favor a transient upper level ridge.
29
&&
.AVIATION...South to southeasterly flow aloft as an upper level
low sinks southward along the coast before starting to push
inland over northern OR today, before shifting northwesterly as
the system moves further east. SUrface winds this morning
largely light and variable with speeds less than 5 kts. Those
showing slightly faster speeds ranging 4-8 kts have a more east
to northeasterly direction, such as HQM, OLM and BLI. Most
terminals expected to shift southerly by early afternoon
although speeds largely remaining around 5 kts or slightly less.
Lower cigs mainly tied to where precip persists this early morning.
VFR conditions being reported by the East Sound Terminals while much
of the Olympic Peninsula has MVFR to IFR conditions. With the coast
being close to the center of the upper low, a mix of VFR to MVFR
conditions are present there but as latest radar shows another band
of precip reaching the coast by mid-morning, a shift to more MVFR
cigs there is likely. Short-lived widespread low-end VFR conditions
expected in the early afternoon, but with plenty of low level
moisture and a shift to onshore flow, MVFR conditions throughout W
WA expected to develop this evening with MVFR/IFR conditions tonight
into Tuesday.
KSEA...VFR conditions this morning, although brief reductions to
MVFR/IFR will be possible in any rain that moves through. Low-
end VFR conditions expected this afternoon and evening, but
expect conditions to drop to MVFR overnight with the return of
onshore flow and abundant moisture in the low levels. Some
guidance is hinting at IFR conditions emerging in the overnight
hours (roughly a 15% chance), however confidence in this
scenario remains low at this time.
18/14
&&
.MARINE...A weakening surface low will move onshore over the
northern Oregon coast today, flipping winds back to onshore.
Another frontal system will reach the waters on Wednesday as its
associated low moves into the region and southward along the
coastal waters. This will likely bring the next round of
headlines to portions of the area waters as well as the return
of offshore flow to the waters through the second half of the
week.
Seas generally 3-6 ft today before briefly building back up to 7-9
ft near midweek. They will then subside once more to 4-6 ft Thursday
and remain there through the weekend.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion