Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
718
FXUS66 KSEW 272149
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
249 PM PDT Mon Jul 27 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak system will brush the area Tuesday with cooler temps and
showers mainly to the coast, Olympic Peninsula and north
interior. Conditions will trend dry and warmer Wednesday through
Friday, followed by cooler and potentially showery weather for
some areas over the weekend.
&&
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Temperatures running about 5 to 10 degrees warmer this afternoon
over yesterday, but still near normal. A weak system remains on
track to brush the area Tuesday morning, mainly clipping the
northwestern third of the area with what looks to be another
round of light rain for the coast, Olympic Peninsula and
Whatcom County. NBM is showing a 15% chance of thunder over
northern Whatcom County during the afternoon hours. For all
other areas, expect little more than a chance of light rain or
drizzle mainly during the morning and a bit more cloud cover
into the afternoon hours.
Wednesday looks to be a transitional day, with morning stratus
and afternoon sunshine. High temperatures will likely run a few
degrees warmer than Tuesday, but remain pretty close to normal.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ensembles continue to highlight the persistent upstream tough
and southwesterly flow aloft Thursday. Upper level heights will
begin to creep up with highs Thursday in some spots along the
foothills and Cascade valleys and areas south of Puget Sound
warming into the lower 80s. Friday continues to look like the
warmest with a 80-90% chance of highs at or above 80F over the
interior lowlands from King County Southward. Even with the
warmer temperatures, HeatRisk values are expected to remain
Minor (yellow) for much of the area with impacts primarily to
those individuals extremely sensitive to heat especially if
outdoors without adequate cooling or hydration.
Ensembles settling on a cooler and potentially showery pattern
for the weekend. The most likely scenario looks to be showers
along the coast with widespread cloud cover and cooler
temperatures over the interior. Highs will likely run near- to
slightly cooler than normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
Clouds still in place over much of the Olympic Peninsula, the
islands and western Whatcom and Skagit counties while the remainder
of the interior falling more under FEW to SCT coverage. Therefore,
some spots under cloud cover may see periods of MVFR to IFR
conditions this evening while the remainder of the CWA remains VFR.
Cigs lowering overnight although most terminals expected to remain
VFR, save for those west of PWT which are expected to dip down into
MVFR overnight. SEA remains borderline where forecast models
trending either low-end VFR or right at the VFR/MVFR divide of 3000
ft, but potential impacts from MVFR conditions have warranted
inclusion into inherited forecast.
West-southwesterly winds continue this evening around 8 to 12 mph,
with a few gusts to 20 mph possible at PAE and PWT. Winds turn more
due westerly overnight and remain around 5 to 10 mph.
KSEA...VFR through tonight. Ceilings look to redevelop early Tuesday
morning and may dip close to MVFR. There is a 20-25% chance of MVFR
cigs from 12-19Z Tue, but potential impacts have warranted inclusion
into TAF. Southwesterly wind 6 to 10 knots. Winds become more west
after 02Z Tue before returning to southwesterly 6 to 10 kt
overnight.
18/62
&&
.MARINE...The frontal system on the coast continues to weaken and
fall apart today. However, another front is moving in behind it, and
will traverse the area waters, however slowly, on Tuesday, weakening
as it does so. Winds will increase across the coastal waters on
Tuesday, however, the strongest winds look to prevail across
portions of Puget Sound and Hood Canal, and into the Northern Inland
Waters during the morning on Tuesday where gusts up to 20-25 kt will
be possible. A relatively weak push down the Strait may follow behind
the frontal system Tuesday afternoon.
Broad high pressure builds in behind the system on Wednesday and
winds remain weak until we start to get stronger diurnal pushes down
the Strait towards the end of the week. Another low pressure system
looks to approach the area waters this weekend.
Seas remain 6 ft or less through the next week.
62
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A weak system brushing the northwestern third of the area
Tuesday will bring another round of potential wetting rains for
the north coast and West Slopes of the Olympics. Both REFS and
NBM showing a 50-60% chance of 0.25" or more through Tuesday
afternoon. The NBM is showing a 15-18% chance of thunderstorms
over northern Whatcom County Tuesday afternoon likely as the
upper level trough brushes the area. While low, does indicate
the chance of isolated thunder for a period of time during the
afternoon. Drier and warmer conditions return Wednesday through
Friday. Minimum RH values dip into the 30s Thursday and into the
upper 20s Friday. Persistent low level onshore flow will help
maintain good humidity recoveries in the overnight hours. The
pattern looks to shift back to a cooler, potentially showery
pattern through the weekend.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 1 PM PDT Tuesday for
Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-
Puget Sound and Hood Canal.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion