Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
887
FXUS66 KSEW 130404
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
802 PM PST Thu Feb 12 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds ahead of an approaching weather system
expected to move onshore overnight into Friday. The large scale
pattern looks to remain active with cooler and unsettled
weather with periods of precipitation over the region through
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
High clouds beginning to move in from the west over W WA this evening
on latest satellite imagery. Current radar shows a very weak band of
precip over the NW corner of the Olympic Peninsula, however,
difficult to believe that is real. Given the 2.5 mile vis at UIL,
this initial band might be some low level moisture...although
satellite does not really support that solution either. Main frontal
system still appears to be out of radar range, putting the start for
precip more into the late tonight/overnight hours time frame.
Inherited forecast remains on track with no evening update required.
For additional forecast details, see the Previous Discussion section
below. 18
From Previous Discussion...Afternoon sunshine for many areas except
for very persistent fog over the Hood Canal area this afternoon.
Increasing high- and mid-level clouds working into the Olympic
Peninsula ahead of an approaching front will spread inland this
afternoon and evening. Widespread precipitation ahead of the front
will spread inland late this evening into Friday - falling as rain
over the lowlands and needed snow in the mountains. Snow levels will
lower to around 2500-3000 feet by Friday afternoon, allowing snow
accumulation at all of the Cascade passes. Most likely amounts in
the 4 to 6 in range with slightly more, 6 to 8 inches around Mt.
Baker. This system isn`t expected to bring much wind to western
Washington, breezy at times Friday, however winds over the offshore
waters will allow waves along the Pacific Coast to build to roughly
15 to 18 feet on Friday. Beachgoers should use caution and remain
aware of the unsettled seas.
By Saturday precipitation will taper off with cooler temperatures
settling into the area with snow levels dipping to 1800-2500 feet by
Saturday afternoon. Additional snow accumulations over the mountains
will be light. Temperatures will peak in the mid to upper 40s with
mostly cloudy skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ensembles continue to consistently highlight an upper level
trough digging south and west of 130W into the offshore waters
of California by Sunday afternoon. This leaves much of the
Pacific Northwest under split flow aloft, with most variability
in the forecast north of the split in western Canada and
southern Alaska. An upper level shortwave trough forecast to
move south out of the Alaska interior Sunday evening will break
the split flow over the Pacific Northwest going into early next
week Clustering analysis hints at two scenarios, one where this
upper level trough digs southward over the Northeast Pacific,
and the second taking the upper level trough southward along the
British Columbia coast and more directly into western
Washington and Oregon. The latter scenario is forecast by 44% of
the ensemble members, represents the wetter scenario for much
of the Pacific Northwest. Precipitation with the system is
expected to start to move onto the coast early Monday morning,
with cooler temperatures over the interior lowlands it is
possible that this precipitation could fall as a rain snow mix
as it begins to spread inland through the morning.
Interestingly, the scenario with the upper level trough over
western Washington would also be less likely to result in less
southerly flow ahead of the front - helping keep temperatures a
little cooler as that precipitation initially moves inland. In
either scenario, temperatures are not expected to be cool enough
for more than a rain snow mix, with no accumulation at low
elevations. Snow levels around 1500-2000 feet will allow for
additional accumulations over the higher terrain steady. The
pattern looks to remain cool an active through the remainder of
the week, with a mean upper level trough over or along the west
Coast. Good news for our mountain snowpack.
&&
.AVIATION...
Light westerly flow aloft will become southwesterly
tonight as the upper level ridge over the area exits to the
south ahead of frontal system approaching the area. Ceilings
will deteriorate all areas overnight with widespread MVFR
ceilings across the region by Friday morning. Heaviest rain
looks to be with the front late morning on the coast and early
afternoon through the interior. Low level winds will remain
light south-southwesterly this evening becoming more westerly
along the coast behind the front and southerly over the
interior.
KSEA...VFR conditions evening with high and mid level clouds.
Ceilings will lower ahead of an approaching front, with MVFR
ceilings in areas of light rain after 12Z Friday. Surface winds
S/SW 5 to 7 knots, easing to 4 to 6 kt this evening then
strengthen to 6 to 8 knots late Friday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
A weak surface ridge will maintain over area waters for tonight. A
front will move onshore on Friday with a secondary system to follow
on Saturday. Pre-frontal southerlies on Friday may be enough to
bring SCA gusts for the Northern Inland waters during the morning
hours. As a result, a SCA has been issued as hi-res guidance
suggests a 50-60% chance of gusts above 21 kt. Surface high pressure
briefly builds into British Columbia Saturday night and Sunday
turning the flow northerly. A series of troughs digging southward
across the coastal and offshore waters will keep conditions
unsettled early next week with the potential for more headlines.
Seas will build over 10 feet this evening remain in the 10 to 15
foot range into the early weekend. The outer coastal waters may
briefly touch 16 ft Friday morning. They may briefly subside below
the 10 foot threshold Sunday into early Monday before building back
into double digits again by Tuesday.
41
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding is expected over the next 7 days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion