Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
821
FXUS66 KSEW 162311
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
311 PM PST Sun Nov 16 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Showers will continue across the region this afternoon through
Tuesday as a couple of troughs pass through the region. Drier
weather is expected late Tuesday into Wednesday as a ridge
briefly builds over the region, giving a small chance for the
first peaks of sunshine in a short while. Rain chances will
increase again going towards the end of the week, with near
normal temperatures favored.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
It remains quite soupy out there with an inversion trapping low
level moisture across the region (lower visibilities with
showers passing through ahead of a cold front/trough to the
west). Quite a bit of mist/low ceilings are still being observed
in Puget Sound, and will likely continue into tonight until
cooler air begins to move in aloft into Monday. The showers will
linger into Monday and Tuesday, with light accumulations
expected. Snow levels will gradually lower from around 6,000 ft Monday
night down to 3,000 ft Tuesday behind the trough as northwest
flow mixes down towards the surface. Few snow showers will be
possible at the passes, but again no accumulations are expected.
The trough will begin to split late Tuesday, with the upper
level low deepening to the south, and a cutoff trough passing
through. A ridge is favored to build in behind the trough, and
depending on the timing on how quickly the ridge sits over the
region, there could be a few breaks of clouds with some sun
seeping through late Tuesday (50-60% cloud coverage). The
temperatures will also drop a few degrees from Monday into
Tuesday (especially in the Cascades with more). For the
interior: highs will dip into the upper 40s/low 50s Tuesday,
with lows in the upper 30s/low 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The ridge pattern from Tuesday is expected to pass quickly
overhead Wednesday. This will nullify any precipitation chances
through late Wednesday evening. Ensembles place a trough/frontal
system moving through the region late Wednesday night through
early Friday. This system appears more showery in nature as
forecasted QPF remains low with this system. Some breezy east
gap winds in the Cascades are possible with this system. A
stronger system is possible going into next weekend from Friday
through Sunday with additional precipitation. THere are some
disagreements with the ensembles with this pattern though
(especially as a few of them favor a more zonal pattern).
Temperatures will cool off a few degrees into next weekend, but
remain generally steady from the short-term section.
HPR
&&
.AVIATION...
Southwesterly flow aloft becoming southerly overnight as
weakening front moves into the area. Front dissipating over the
interior Monday morning.
Mix of LIFR and IFR ceilings through Monday morning. Visibility
1-3sm in light rain and fog at times. Small improvement Monday
afternoon.
KSEA...IFR to LIFR ceilings through Monday morning. Visibility
bouncing around between 1 and 5 sm. Small improvement MOnday
afternoon. Light southerly winds. Felton
&&
.MARINE...
A weakening front will dissipate over the inland waters
Monday morning. Surface high pressure building in behind the
front later Monday morning. Surface high remaining over the waters
through Tuesday night. A frontal system will reach the waters
Wednesday night into Thursday.
Small craft advisory over the outer coastal waters for 10 foot
seas through Monday afternoon and over the inner coastal waters
through tonight. Small craft advisory winds likely Wednesday
night or Thursday over the coastal waters with the next system.
Felton
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No hydrological rainfall is expected through late week as
activity is expected to remain showery in nature. There`s lower
confidence in systems next weekend that may produce hydrologic
concerns.
HPR
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PST Monday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
Out 10 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST Monday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
To 60 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion