Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
398
FXUS66 KSEW 272124
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
224 PM PDT Wed May 27 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather with a neutral flow pattern over Western Washington
will continue today into Thursday. An upper level trough from
the Gulf of Alaska will begin to sink down into the region
Thursday into Friday, with an upper level low in California
pivoting to the northeast, all over a surface trough across
Eastern Washington. Showers will be likely Thursday evening into
Friday morning for areas east of Interstate 5, along with a
slight chance of thunder along the Cascade Crest. Warmer
temperatures will linger through Thursday, before cooling down
this weekend ahead of a warmup next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Western WA this afternoon sits under a small ridge/neutral
pattern this afternoon (in between two upper level lows, one in
the Gulf of Alaska, and one centered over the central
California/Nevada border). Much of the area remains clear on
satellite this afternoon, with a few areas of cumulus over the
mountains, and a narrow cloud bank along the Pacific Coast.
Temperatures this afternoon will continue to climb into the low
to mid 70s, with lows tonight dropping into the low 50s. Winds
will remain out of the north at around 5 to 15 mph.
The pattern shifts Thursday as the low/trough from the Gulf of
Alaska begins to southward, along with the upper level low in
California pivoting northeast. A surface trough/low also sits in
eastern Washington that will remain in place ahead of a cold
front being driven by the trough with the low in the Gulf of
Alaska. While the first part of Thursday will be mostly clear,
cloud coverage will build in later in the evening. Daytime
temperatures will still likely reach the upper 70s/low 80s by
the afternoon, with dew points in the mid to upper 50s in some
spots (couple pockets of 60). The HeatRisk is minor going into
Thursday, although it may feel slightly muggy with the
combination of the warmer temperatures and dew points.
For precipitation Thursday night/Friday, convective ensembles
have a complex of showers and thunderstorms forming in North-
Central Oregon that will move to the north along the Cascade
crest during the evening/early morning hours. By the time they
reach Western Washington, it will be in the dark and more than
likely the instability in the air will dissipate as the sun
sets. There remains a 20% chance of thunder for locations along
the Cascade Crest in the afternoon/evening for any convection
that does make into the area ahead of sunset. Otherwise, the
band of showers should be able to produce some beneficial rain
for the region, with mean precipitation outputs showing around a
quarter of an inch of QPF for areas east of I-5. The showers are
expected to last into the first half of Friday.
In addition to the rain, winds may become breezy in a couple
areas along the waters Friday morning as strong onshore flow
pushes in behind the cold front, particularly the Pacific Coast
and Strait of Juan de Fuca. These winds would peak early Friday
morning, with potential for gusts up to 30-35 mph in these
areas. Otherwise, the weather cools down significantly on
Friday, with highs only reaching the upper 50s to low 60s. Cloud
coverage likely remains in place during the day, with potential
for the coast seeing some cloud breaks late.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The models agree on the cooler/mild air hanging around the
region through the weekend as the trough axis sits along the
coastline. High temperatures Saturday and Sunday remain in the
60s, with lows in the 40s. Cloud coverage hangs on a bit going
into Saturday, with most of it beginning to clear out by Sunday.
The trough moves completely out by Monday, inviting an upper
level ridge to build over the region over a thermal trough
building along the coastline. This will cause a significant
warmup going into next week, with high temperatures returning
into the 80s, and a chance for even a couple of 90s in the south
interior on Tuesday. HeatRisk increases to moderate for Tuesday
for areas in the interior away from water. Overnight
temperatures Tuesday night into Wednesday morning may also
struggle to drop below 60.
HPR
&&
.AVIATION...
An upper level low will spin to our south tonight with another
low spinning over the Gulf of AK. In between lies western WA
under stable conditions. The flow aloft is N to E, becoming S
Thursday morning. VFR conditions prevail across the region. The
coast will see low clouds and IFR conditions early Thursday
morning. Moisture will wrap N and E into western WA Thursday
night (after 06z Friday) for showers. 33
KSEA...VFR conditions. N winds to 10 kt easing this evening. 33
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories remain in effect for the coastal waters
for both wind and seas (through Friday). A strong onshore push
will produce gales through the Strait of Juan de Fuca Thursday
evening. Gales may persist through the day Friday and into
Friday night. Wind and seas will ease and subside over the
weekend. The flow will turn offshore early next week as a
thermal trough forms along the coast. 33
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the
next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as
needed.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through Friday evening for
Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Thursday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion