Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
635
FXUS66 KSEW 031100
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
300 AM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak system brushing the region will bring chances of light
rain to the area through the morning hours today. The weather
pattern becomes more active starting Wednesday as a series of
systems brings lowland rain, high elevation snow, gusty winds,
and the potential for high surf to western Washington. A brief
break in the unsettled weather is possible Friday night into
Saturday, before additional systems arrive late in the weekend
into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A weak system brushing the region will continue to bring some
light showers to western Washington through the morning hours
today. Latest radar shows plenty of echoes along the coast and
south of the area over Oregon, but with conditions remaining
pretty dry in the low levels, observations indicate that not
much rain has actually reached the ground this morning. Rain
that has made it to the ground has been rather light so far and
has only resulted in a few hundredths in spots. Showers will
remain possible across the area through the morning, with
conditions generally drying out by this afternoon as shower
coverage decreases. Afternoon highs will be a few degrees
warmer today than yesterday, with temperatures expected to top
out in the mid 50s to low 60s. Clearing skies this evening and
the reintroduction of some moisture in the low levels will bring
back the potential for fog development across the area by early
Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the mid 30s to low 40s,
with a few spots across the South Sound approaching freezing.
The weather pattern becomes more active starting Wednesday as
the first in a series of systems moves across western Washington.
This system will bring lowland rain, high elevation snow, and
gusty winds to the area. More details on each hazard follows
below:
Rain: The bulk of the moisture with this system will be focused
over the Olympic Peninsula and the North Cascades. Rainfall
amounts for the Pacific Coast are expected to range between a
quarter of an inch to half an inch. Many spots across the
interior lowlands will get rain shadowed, with only a few
hundredths to a tenth of an inch of rain expected.
Mountain Snow: Snow levels generally be hovering between 5000-
6000 ft will bring a few inches of snow to the higher peaks of
the Olympics and North Cascades. Most likely snow amounts across
the higher terrain are between 1-3 inches, with some locally
higher amounts possible near the higher peaks like Mt Baker.
Gusty Winds: Winds will increase as this system approaches the
region, with southerly winds expected to pick up along the coast
during the afternoon hours and increasing across the interior
during the evening hours. Winds will be strongest along the Pacific
Coast, where wind gusts between 25-35 mph will be possible. Areas
across the interior will likely see wind gusts to 25 mph.
Winds will ease and precipitation will taper overnight into
Thursday, which will bring a quick break in between systems.
Afternoon highs on Thursday will be in the mid to upper 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A stronger system will move into western Washington Thursday night
into Friday, bringing another round of gusty winds, lowland
rain, high elevation snow, and the potential for high surf along
the Pacific Coast. The bulk of the moisture with this system
will again remain aimed at the Olympic Peninsula and the North/Central
Cascades. Snow levels around 5000 ft will climb to 5500-7000 ft
through the day on Friday and will support high elevation snow
across the Olympics and Cascades, with 1-2 inches of rain
expected in the lower mountain elevations. The highest rainfall
amounts across the lowlands will be along the North Coast,
where 1 to 2 inches of rain is expected into Saturday morning.
Many areas across the interior lowlands will be rain shadowed
again and generally look to receive a couple tenths of an inch
of rain. Winds will become gusty as the system approaches, with
probabilistic guidance indicating a 50% chance of wind gusts
exceeding 40 mph along the Pacific Coast and a 40-50% chance of
wind gusts exceeding 40 mph for areas from Whidbey Island
northward. Increasing potential for high surf conditions
developing along the Pacific coast could bring risks for beach
erosion and hazardous conditions along beaches and jetties.
Ensemble clusters continue to hint at a brief break in the
unsettled weather pattern early Saturday as a transient ridge
of high pressure moves back over the region. Discrepancies
remain in regards to the amplitude of the ridge at this time,
however, it does look to aid in directing the bulk of the moisture
of the next system further north into British Columbia. Even
though the bulk of the moisture will be focused to the north of
the border, the North Coast and the North Cascades could still
be clipped by this system.
The ridge does look to move inland rather quickly which would
open the door for a wet system to move into the area Saturday
night into Sunday. The pattern will remain active heading into
early next week as additional systems look to arrive into the
region.
14
&&
.AVIATION...
A weak trough to the south and a stationary front to the west will
keep most terminals covered with VFR broken or overcast decks
through the majority of the day. The only exception is a few
isolated instances of brief low IFR/LIFR ceilings or mist/fog in
portions of the Kitsap/south interior. Showers will continue to move
northward ahead of the surface trough to the south. These will
primarily affect terminals west of I-5. Cloud coverage decreases
this evening/overnight, which will open up another window for fog or
low stratus Wednesday morning. Best chances for said conditions to
develop are from the Kitsap to the south interior, and the Cascades
from 12-15Z through 18-20Z. Winds will remain light out of the
north/northeast around 5 kt; expect higher winds up to 10 kt in the
mountains and the coast.
KSEA...VFR conditions expected for Tuesday with high ceilings,
clearing by this evening. Some uncertainty at this time with the the
northern extent of the potential LIFR conditions Wednesday morning,
but LAMP guidance gives a chance of both LIFR ceilings and
visibilities. Winds remaining out of the north/northeast at around 5
kt.
HPR
&&
.MARINE...
A stationary front remains offshore with a trough passing to the
south. The main hazard for Tuesday remains elevated seas at 8 to 10
ft with the longer swell. The inherited small craft advisory was
extended to Tuesday afternoon as model guidance has the seas slowly
dropping to 6 to 8 ft this evening/Wednesday. The weather then
becomes more fall-like with a series of systems passing through,
beginning mid week and continuing this weekend into early next week.
Probabilities remain at 75 to 80% for wind gusts over 20 kt in the
coastal waters, as well as a significant portion of the interior
waters for gusty south winds. Friday`s system will be stronger, with
both wind and sea concerns. Majority of the waters will hazardous
winds for small craft. The inner coast and east Strait of Juan de
Fuca have a 35% chance of gusts reaching gale force. Seas will build
Thursday into Friday, peaking at 15 to 18 ft with a longer swell.
The Saturday/Sunday, and Monday/Tuesday systems has similar
probabilities for small craft and gale gusts to the Friday system.
Seas as a result will likely remain over 10 ft going into the
weekend/early next week (12-15 ft).
HPR
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
River flooding is not expected through the next seven days.
However, a series of increasingly wet weather systems will
bring rain (and high mountain snow) to the region this week,
especially from Friday onward. While current forecasts are not
expected to cause flooding, this will begin to saturate soils
and raise base flows that could bring a concern with subsequent
storms systems.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion