Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
312
FXUS66 KSEW 092159
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
259 PM PDT Sat May 9 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal system will clip the area tonight and into Sunday
for increased cloud cover and cooler temperatures. Warming
temperatures and high pressure return to the area early next
week, with Tuesday likely to be the warmest day. It isn`t long
lived as more unsettled weather returns for the second half of
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
An increase in cloud cover is apparent on visible satellite this
afternoon as a weak frontal system nears the area. As it moves
through tomorrow, cooler temperatures in the upper 60s will
return under mostly cloudy skies. High pressure rebounds early
next week and will generally square itself over the NW. Tuesday
could see highs in the upper 70s to low 80s, with the warmest
locations being eastern Grays Harbor County in through south
King County. In these areas, there is greater than a 50%
likelihood that Moderate HeatRisk levels could be achieved. That
said, the models have struggled lately with resolving the extent
of the marine layer influence and if that is to develop and
linger, it could drop a few degrees off the expected highs.
21
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cutoff low offshore of the OR/CA border will act to scoot the
high pressure off to the east and bring in more southwesterly
flow aloft. There is still considerable divergence in solutions
via the ensembles regarding the depth of the low and its track. This
will generally be the onset of a return of more unsettled
weather. Zonal flow resumes about midweek onward, and could at
times through the extended forecast bring about some chances for
precipitation (although very light amounts) in the region. By
late next week, highs may struggle to get much warmer than the
low 60s.
21
&&
.AVIATION...
Southwest flow aloft through the TAF period as an upper-ridge
progresses eastward. VFR all areas with BKN250 being observed so far
this evening. For tonight into Sunday, mostly VFR all terminals
aside from coastal areas. According to the HREF, KHQM has a 65-70%
chance of ceilings below 1,000 ft 10z-16z Sunday and if manifest -
should return back to VFR towards the afternoon. Northerly winds
this afternoon 4-8 kt becoming light tonight. Weak front entering on
Saturday will increase surface winds with gusts up to 20-25 kt in
the afternoon.
KSEA...Confidence is leaning towards VFR throughout the TAF period.
Probabilities of cigs below 3,000 ft for Sunday morning is around
10%. WNW surface winds 5-10 kt, shifting to the northeast around 5
kt or less late before veering towards the SW 14-16z Sunday between
5-10 kt.
41
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will continue to build over the offshore waters this
into next week. The main concern in this period is westerly winds
through the Strait of Juan de Fuca where winds may reach SCA
criteria. The next likelihood of this occuring is Sunday afternoon
and evening. Otherwise, winds will remain light and primarily out of
the north going into next week. A few ensembles hint a more
organized system midweek next week. Seas 4-6 ft with a couple areas
potentially seeing 7 ft seas next week at times.
41
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next
rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as
needed.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion