Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
861
FXUS66 KSEW 030322
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
822 PM PDT Wed Sep 2 2026
.UPDATE...
The bulk of the stratiform rainfall with the first autumn-like
weather system of the year has shifted northeastwards, with
showers and isolated thunderstorm activity streaming inland this
evening. Areas on the Olympic Peninsula have generally seen
rainfall amounts of up to an inch, with locally higher amounts
over the Olympic Mountains. Most inland lowland locations have
seen lighter amounts, up to a quarter of an inch, and areas over
the Cascades have seen around half an inch of rainfall with this
system. In addition, gusty winds have begun to gradually
decrease, and the Wind Advisories have been allowed to expire.
No further forecast updates tonight outside of the Aviation and
Marine sections below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous early season storm system has moved through the area,
with lingering showers and breezy winds overnight. The overall
weather pattern will remain cool and unsettled through the
weekend with possible drying and warming following early next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Steady rain will continue to change to showers behind the cold
front this evening, with winds gradually easing tonight. The
associated upper level low will linger over the region Thursday
and Friday - keeping the overall pattern relatively cool and
unstable - with showers and 15 to 25% chance of afternoon and
evening thunderstorms especially over the mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ensemble-based clustering systems continue to emphasize the
likelihood of the upper level low/trough remaining over the
Pacific Northwest through the weekend. Differences in the
forecast remain largely limited to differences with embedded
features or whether or not the upper level low opens up and
lingers as a trough (17% of the members) or lingers as a more
consolidated upper level low (83% of the members). Ultimately
this equates to a high degree of confidence in the cooler
unsettled pattern lingering through the weekend, with showers
and potentially potential isolated thunderstorms especially over
the mountains. Ensemble clusters show the pattern opening up
early in the week, allowing the upper level system to shift
eastward with much of the variability in how progressively this
occurs. 15% of the members falling into a more progressive or
faster scenarios at day 6 (Monday), and the bulk of the
remaining members pushing the change into Tuesday. The overall
message remains for a transition to drier and relatively warmer
conditions early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...
South to southwest flow aloft into Thursday an an upper low
digs southwards along the Washington coast. Scattered showers
continue to move across the area this evening. A 20-25%
probability for thunderstorms remains along the coast tonight.
VFR cigs for most areas tonight with MVFR along the coast and in
areas of heavier rain. Cigs may slowly lower towards higher end
MVFR for localized Puget Sound terminals and Kitsap Peninsula
Thursday AM. A more widespread chance for isolated thunderstorms
is possible on Thursday, with probabilities ranging between
20-30%. Winds continue to ease this evening, however a few
terminals will continue to see breezy winds from PAE northwards.
KSEA...VFR conditions are expected to continue overnight. A few
showers will linger tonight into Thursday. Cigs slowly lower towards
low-end VFR and high-end MVFR Thursday morning, with a 30-35% chance
of MVFR cigs between 16 to 19z Thursday. Southeasterly winds 7-9 kt
tonight, becoming southwesterly Thursday afternoon.
JD/MGF
&&
.MARINE...
A Gale Warning continues this evening for the eastern
Strait of Juan de Fuca, Admiralty Inlet, and northern inland waters.
Southerly winds will taper off tonight, but remain breezy in these
aforementioned areas, as such, a Small Craft Advisory continues
tonight. Otherwise, light winds are expected late Thursday through
Friday with broad low pressure over the region. Northerly winds
develop Saturday and continue into early next week.
Rain showers linger tonight through Thursday. There is a 20 to 30%
chance for thunderstorms along the Coastal Waters tonight, with a 10
to 25% chance of thunderstorms for all waters Thursday afternoon.
Seas remain in the 8 to 11 foot range tonight through Thursday
morning. Seas further ease to 4 to 6 feet late Thursday through the
weekend.
JD/MGF
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Admiralty Inlet-
East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern
Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Thursday for Admiralty
Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Puget
Sound and Hood Canal.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Thursday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion