Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
652
FXUS66 KSEW 062151
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
251 PM PDT Tue Oct 6 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly zonal flow will persist over western Washington as high
pressure amplifies over the Great Basin region to the south.
Warm conditions are expected throughout the week, with morning
clouds and patchy fog, giving way to sunny afternoons. Rain
chances increase into Friday as a front moves through. Cooler
conditions arrive this weekend through early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure at the surface remains offshore with lower pressure
inland. A zonal flow pattern with a weak ridge overhead and a jet
streak in southern Canada will continue to funnel the onshore
pattern through midweek. Most of the fog and low stratus has cleared
out on satellite, though a pocket remains and will likely remain in
the east portion of the Strait of Juan de Fuca area through the
evening. Another round of fog and stratus is likely to form again
Wednesday morning. The north/south interior and Olympics are the
favored areas to see the lowest cloud decks/visibilities in the
morning. and will clear by early afternoon. Probabilities for fog on
Thursday morning are considerably less, but can`t rule out a few
valley areas seeing development. Temperatures in this period will
continue to remain mild, and slowly increase up to Thursday with a
few spots even seeing highs into the low 70s. Overnight lows will
range from the upper 40s to low 50s. Winds will remain out of the
northwest at around 5-10 mph for most areas.
HPR
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The next frontal system will sweep across the region later
Friday through Saturday. While still some spread within the
ensemble guidance, around 60-70% of members suggest a fairly
deep upper trough moving through the region. This will bring
some increased winds across the area ahead of the system on
Friday, with rain continuing into Saturday. That said, rainfall
amounts aren`t looking too impressive with totals around a tenth
to a quarter of an inch through late Saturday. Colder air then
settles into the region this weekend. Two things to consider
with this for the weekend into the start of next week: 1) Any
additional showers could bring some light snow accumulations
above around 4,500 ft or so. 2) For the foothills and outlying
locations, overnight lows could begin to dip down into the 30s.
While confidence isn`t high, those with agricultural concerns
should keep an close eye on the forecast for potential frost
headlines for the start of next week. Cullen
&&
.AVIATION...
The current onshore pattern will continue through the TAF period
with higher pressure offshore. There remains a pocket of IFR/LIFR
stratus this afternoon (from KPAE northward into the north
interior/Strait of Juan de Fuca). A large pocket of this stratus
will likely retain in a portion of the strait through the evening
(while the remaining north interior areas see the stratus lift
slowly late this afternoon/evening. Another pocket of MVFR remains
west of KOLM, but this will scatter out this afternoon. Remaining
areas currently have VFR conditions, which will increase in coverage
through this evening. Overnight, additional fog/low stratus is
likely to reform (particularly in valleys in the north/south
interior and the Olympics), and clear early Wednesday afternoon.
Winds will remain out of the north at 5-10 kt, with lighter winds
overnight.
KSEA...VFR conditions through the evening. LIFR conditions are
likely to move in and in the vicinity of the terminal again
Wednesday morning, mainly from 10Z through 18Z before clearing.
Winds out of the north 5-10 kt, decreasing to 5 kt or less overnight.
HPR
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the waters will remain for the next few days.
In the short term, the primary marine impact will be continued
fog over portions of the waters. Improvement over the eastern
Strait of Juan de Fuca and adjacent waters has been quite slow,
which will likely result in widespread visibility less than 3 NM
again late tonight through early tomorrow morning. Confidence
remains a little lower in how widespread the dense fog will be,
so will continue to evaluate the need for an advisory as it
expands tonight.
Otherwise, a building thermal trough along the Oregon coast will
make its way north to the Washington coast, bringing northerly
winds to the coastal waters. The strongest winds look to remain
south of the local area, but there`s around a 20-30% chance of
some gusts to 25 kt across the inner coastal waters off of Grays
Harbor on Wednesday and especially Thursday afternoon.
Similarly, some marginal advisory gusts through the central
Strait may develop Thursday as winds return onshore. Chances
remain too low for any advisories at this time, but it remains
worth watching. More significant marine weather is expected
Friday as the next frontal system reaches the coastal waters,
pushing inland through early Saturday. This will likely (>80%
chance) bring widespread advisory winds to the coastal waters
and the Strait of Juan de Fuca, with seas building to at least
8-9 ft over the coastal waters. Current probabilities of
reaching 10 ft remain around 60% for the end of the week. Cullen
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion