Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
931
FXUS66 KSEW 060432
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
832 PM PST Thu Mar 5 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front will clip the area tonight and Friday for light
precipitation. A cold front will stall over western Washington
on Sunday. A cold and wet pattern will set up next week for
lower snow levels and periods of heavy mountain snow.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Light rain is beginning to move inland this evening. Otherwise,
the forecast remains on track, with no major changes to the
forecast this evening.
We remain under onshore flow today with lingering light
showers in the interior and Cascades. Rain will increase in
coverage overnight and into Friday as a warm front moves in. The
warmer air mass will bring higher snow levels around 5,000 ft.
We`ll sit in the warm sector on Saturday while high pressure
nudges inland. Expect highs in the lower to mid 50s with light
precipitation (mainly coast and north part). 33
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will stall over western WA on Sunday with strong
westerly flow aloft. Snow levels will lower below the passes
Sunday night with accumulating snow possible at both Stevens and
Snoqualmie Pass.
The weather pattern is cold and wet moving through early next
week with low snow levels. Strong, moist, westerly flow will
pound the mountains with potential for several feet of snow.
Rates increase on Wednesday which could make travel over the
mountains difficult. Across the lowlands, with low snow levels,
there is a rain/snow mix in the forecast Mon-Thu. The low level
flow will remain onshore, though, which will help temperatures
mostly stay above freezing and thus limit impacts. Snow levels
will be rising on Wed and Thu and any snow would mostly affect
areas close to the mountains. 33
&&
.AVIATION...
North to northwesterly flow aloft as upper level ridging builds over
the eastern Pacific. Surface winds generally southerly for most
terminals, although BFI and PWT are actually showing easterly at the
time of this writing. Current speeds mainly 4-8 kts although seeing
some occasional winds up to 12 kts at BLI this evening. Overnight,
winds will become more uniformly south to southwesterly with speeds
increasing to 8-12 kts with some gusts up to 20 possible for most
terminals.
Mostly VFR conditions in place over W WA, although starting to see
some MVFR emerge along the coast ahead of incoming frontal system.
SEA and BFI also reporting MVFR conditions, but this may be more due
to a dissipating weak convergence zone to the north. Widespread MVFR
conditions will emerge overnight tonight due to aforementioned
approaching front...with rain developing by early Friday morning.
Precip is associated with a warm front, so current TAFs reflect that
with VCSH...however latest PoPs suggest that an upgrade to -SHRA
will likely be a better fit and will opt to edit in that direction
with the 06Z issuance.
KSEA...MVFR conditions in place as of 04Z /as mentioned above/...and
while there may be a short recovery to VFR, given the incoming front
will likely opt for conditions to remain MVFR this evening and
tonight. Timing for precip start may be a little aggressive as front
still no quite yet to the coast. Rainfall and showers however still
look good from 10Z on and will alter TAF to reflect this thinking.
Reduced visibilities/ceilings are expected with rainfall. IFR
conditions expected as cigs sink further in the mid to late morning
hours Friday...although increasing winds Friday afternoon may help
lift cigs back to MVFR and help improve vis. Southwesterly winds
throughout the period with speeds 4-8 kts this evening and tonight,
increasing to 8-12 kts overnight and for the remainder of the TAF
period. Some gusts up to 20-25 kts will be possible.
18
&&
.MARINE...
A warm front will swing through area waters tonight into Friday with
widespread stratiform precipitation. Reduced visibilities due to
heavier rain/mist are likely at times. The flow will continue to
remain southwesterly tonight into Friday, with a series of troughs
expected to pass through the waters later this weekend into next
week. This will largely keep the pattern onshore through the
forecast period. The next likelihood of significant winds for small
craft will come Sunday into Monday, with the chance of gale force
gusts in the Strait of Juan de Fuca. This will keep the pattern
active going through next week.
Seas have eased to 6-8 ft, allowing for inherited SCA to expire, and
will remain there into the weekend. The next increase comes with the
Sunday system, with pushes up to 9-11 ft Sunday into next week.
HPR/18
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy precipitation over the Olympics will force
rises on the Skokomish River with the potential for flooding mid
to late next week. No other river flooding is expected over the
next 7 days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion