Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
103
FXUS66 KSEW 231548
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
848 AM PDT Fri Oct 23 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will provide another day of dry conditions
for Western Washington today. An area of low pressure moving
southward from the British Columbia coast will bring some rain
to the region later Saturday into the early portion of next
week. Drier conditions are expected to return by the middle of
next week as the low pressure system moves eastward.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No major updates to the forecast have been made this morning.
See below for an updated aviation discussion.
High pressure aloft will briefly rebuild into Western Washington
today for a dry day ahead and near seasonal temperatures. An
area of low pressure sliding south from the British Columbia
coast is still slated to begin to affect the area later
Saturday into Sunday. Models still remain at odds with respect
to its track, but there`s enough consensus to warrant likely to
categorical PoPs for the coast and Olympic Peninsula Saturday
night into Sunday. Some QPF is expected to make it into Puget
Sound on Sunday, but present thinking is that it will remain
rather light. Temperatures through the short term period will
hover within a couple degrees of normal for the final week of
October.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Upper troughing remains over the Pacific Northwest Sunday night
into Monday for a lingering chance of precip...mostly focused on
the southern half of the CWA. The upper trough is expected to
shift eastward on Tuesday, but confidence in the forecast trails
off by the middle of the coming week as ensembles begin to
diverge somewhat from what they featured just a day ago. The GFS
suite of solutions have a stronger influence of upper troughing
over the region while the ECMWF height anomalies would keep
broad upper troughing just offshore of California. To be clear,
neither of these is a particularly wet scenario for Western
Washington, but it lends enough uncertainty to retain some
generic low chance PoPs for much of the CWA...and that`s
exactly what the NBM is using in the forecast. Temperatures are
expected to remain generally seasonal, but chances for some
sub-freezing overnight lows in the Southwest Interior and
outlying areas increase toward the middle/later portion of next
week.
27
&&
.AVIATION...
Generally low end VFR to MVFR in mid level clouds, which are slowly
beginning to scatter out this morning with widespread VFR expected
by the afternoon. Northwesterly flow aloft in the wake of an exiting
trough expected to remain that way throughout the day and into
Saturday. Surface winds at all terminals light and variable this
morning with northerly winds expected to develop by this afternoon
with speeds ranging 4-8 kts. Light and variable winds expected again
tonight.
KSEA...Cigs hovering right around 3000 feet this morning should
scatter out by 18z, revealing clear skies. Increasing high clouds
later tonight expected to hinder chances of degraded ceilings
developing overnight into Saturday morning. Surface winds generally
light at the terminal this morning becoming northerly 5 to 10 kt in
the afternoon, and light and variable overnight.
18/15
&&
.MARINE...
Northwesterly winds will ease throughout the day, although SCA level
winds still expected throughout this morning. Seas expected to
behave similarly. That said, SCA looks on track with no alterations
to end time needed. Nearshore seas will take a little longer to
ease, so rough bar SCA for Grays Harbor also on track.
Winds and seas will ease and subside by this evening/tonight, with a
more benign pattern settling in over area waters into Saturday. By
Sunday, a low pressure system will move southward over the region,
though some uncertainty remains over the storm track. Winds and seas
look to potentially ramp up again with waves once again encroaching
on 10 ft or a little higher Sunday. Will wait for current headlines
to expire before contemplating next round, if needed. Seas expected
to ease next week where they will remain around 4 to 5 feet.
18/15
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT this morning for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out
10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion