Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
851
FXUS66 KSEW 281739
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1039 AM PDT Wed Oct 28 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low near Vancouver Island this morning will not move
much in the next couple of days ending up off the Washington
coast Friday. The low will weaken to a trough Saturday and move
inland Saturday night. Upper level ridge building offshore
Sunday will move over Western Washington Monday and Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Upper level low not moving
much today. Showers will continue to spin around the low and
move into Western Washington. This afternoon 500 mb temperatures
near -30C, convective temperatures in the mid 50s, lifted
indexes near 0 and lapse rates around 7.5 C/KM. All this adds up
to a chance of thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Snow levels
in the 3000 to 3500 foot range, with most of the heaviest
snowfall already have occurred early this morning. Snow amounts
this afternoon will be heaviest around Mount Rainier, up to 6
inches, elsewhere, just a couple more inches of new snow
elsewhere in the Cascades. Winter Weather Advisory will remain
up until 5 pm this afternoon. Cool day in the lowlands with the
clouds and showers. Highs in the lower to mid 50s.
Little change in the pattern tonight into Thursday. Upper level
low drifts slowly south and west ending up west of KUIL by 00z
Friday. Showers continuing to rotate around the low moving into
Western Washington. The low does weaken a touch with the winds
aloft easing. This will weaken the orographics in the mountains
so even though the shower activity will continue new snow
amounts will decrease. Light additional accumulations in the
forecast. Lows tonight in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Highs
Thursday again in the lower to mid 50s.
Low drifting south Thursday night and Friday with the flow aloft
becoming southwesterly. This is another negative for much in
the way of accumulating new snow in the mountains even as snow
levels remain in the 3000 to 3500 foot range. For the lowlands a
continuation of a chance of showers/showers likely forecast.
Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s. Highs in the lower to mid 50s.
Felton
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models in pretty good agreement with the low weakening and
continuing to drift south Friday night into Saturday. Flow aloft
becoming southerly and with the jet moving inland to the south
pops becoming confined to the western half of the area by
Saturday afternoon. Low weakens to an upper level trough and
moves inland Saturday night. Upper level ridge building off the
coast Sunday moving over Western Washington Sunday night and
Monday. The ridge will weaken a little Tuesday. Still a few
ensemble solutions with a warm front sneaking over the ridge
nicking the coast Sunday night and Monday so will have slight
chance pops for the north coast. With the ridge aloft and the
low level flow turning light offshore the potential for fog
exists both Monday and Tuesday morning. Some of the ensemble
solutions indicating the ridge will be a little dirty with high
cloud cover getting into the area. With this in mind have only
gone for patchy or areas of fog both mornings. Highs mostly in
the mid 50s. Lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s Saturday and
Sunday cooling to the upper 20s and 30s Monday and Tuesday.
Felton
&&
.AVIATION...
An upper low remains over the region with widespread
rain showers across the area today and tonight. As a result,
prevailing conditions are highly variable with IFR conditions under
heavier showers and VFR conditions elsewhere. Southerly surface
winds continue, with gusts to 20 kt through the morning. Confidence
in wind speeds is a bit lower into the afternoon, but around a 50%
chance of stronger gusts continuing into early evening. Otherwise,
will be monitoring around a 15% chance for an isolated thunderstorm
this afternoon and evening, but likelihood remains too low for TAF
inclusion at this time. A convergence zone may maintain more robust
shower activity and lower flight conditions near/south of KPAE but
north of KBFI this evening. Otherwise, little change with shower
activity through the period with increasing stratus potential
overnight for most of the area.
KSEA...VFR conditions expected to prevail with gusty southerly winds
through the evening. Showers remain around the terminal area and
could bring a brief lowering if these move over the terminal.
Otherwise, winds easing overnight with showers decreasing the the
potential for MVFR ceilings increasing by 12z through the morning
Thursday.
&&
.MARINE...Northwesterly winds along the outer coastal waters
will linger into early this morning, but will ease after 5 AM PDT
this morning. Same for seas. As such, timing on inherited headlines
looks good and will run its course unaltered.
Following suit, winds will also ease across the inland waters as the
accompanying surface low drops into the area and tracks southward
along the coastal waters. As it does so, this will allow for flow to
turn back offshore, with offshore flow persisting the second part of
the week.
Seas easing throughout the day, ranging 7 to 10 ft early this
morning favoring 6 to 9 ft by noon today. 5 to 7 ft waves are
expected by tonight and remain there into Thursday. Further
subsiding of seas is expected, with 4 to 6 ft expected by the
weekend.
18
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for
Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of
Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern
King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion