Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
665
FXUS66 KSEW 072111
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
211 PM PDT Tue Jul 7 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm conditions will persist for the interior today ahead of cooler
conditions through the remainder of the week. A weak frontal system
will bring slight chances of rain to higher elevations on Wednesday,
with dry conditions through the rest of the week. Drier and
warmer conditions are forecast early next week as high pressure
builds over the western US.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Warm temperatures will remain in place across the interior today
under southwest flow aloft as the next weather system approaches.
Highs are on track to peak in the upper 70s to low 80s for areas
surrounding and south of the Puget Sound. Areas along the water will
see cooler temperatures today peaking in the 60s as onshore flow
continues to bring in marine air.
A weakening frontal system will cross the region tonight into
Wednesday morning, bringing in cooler temperatures alongside chances
for drizzle. Weak convergence may form some showers behind the
frontal passage over the northern Puget Sound, but confidence is low
over whether this convergence would produce any measurable rainfall.
Increased onshore flow will cause low stratus to expand inland
Wednesday and Thursday mornings, with sunshine returning each
afternoon. Highs will peak near normal in the mid 70s across the
lowlands and in the mid 60s along the coast. In addition, with flow
shifting onshore, smoke from nearby wildfires will remain north and
east of western Washington.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A low pressure system stalled over Vancouver Island will swing a
weak front across western Washington on Friday, bringing chances for
light rain over the northern Olympic Peninsula and North Cascades.
Elsewhere, onshore flow will continue to promote morning low clouds
breaking up by the afternoon. This storm system will slowly meander
eastward to the north, limiting chances for rain in western
Washington over the weekend. Temperatures will continue to hover
near normal on Saturday and Sunday, and instability from the nearby
storm system will bring chances for isolated thunderstorms (5%-10%)
along the Canada border.
High pressure will continue to build over the central US early next
week, with a deep low pressure system dropping southward in the Gulf
of Alaska. This will promote warmer temperatures across western
Washington with southwest flow aloft, but uncertainty remains over
the degree of warming by early next week. Ensembles show a most
likely scenario of highs in the upper 70s to low 80s next Monday and
Tuesday.
15
&&
.AVIATION...
A closed low over central British Columbia will
maintain west/southwesterly flow over the area tonight. Stratus has
largely cleared across the area, allowing for VFR conditions to
prevail. That will continue to be the case through the late evening
before stratus begins to reform along the coast and get pushed
inland with the help of a weak frontal system that will move across
the area overnight into early Wednesday. Stratus will first
redevelop along the coast and push inland overnight, with
probabilities for MVFR or lower cigs increasing around 10-13Z.
Periods of IFR or lower conditions cannot be ruled out area-wide,
though the highest likelihood is along the coast and into the Kitsap
Peninsula.
Expect cigs to scatter behind the frontal passage after around 18-
21Z Wed, with the exception of over the central Puget Sound area
where post-frontal convergence will keep lower cigs and place and
perhaps squeeze out some light showers or drizzle.
Winds west to southwest, generally 5-10 kt in much of the interior
is expected to turn more northerly through the Puget Sound this
evening. Gusts up to 20-25 kt should ease this evening at BLI, but
continue for CLM with the push down the Strait. Winds ease area-wide
by tomorrow morning before the pattern starts again tomorrow with
west to southwest winds turning more north in the late
afternoon/early evening.
KSEA...VFR conditions continue through late tonight. MVFR cigs
expected to return after around 09-11Z Wed with periods of IFR
possible, mostly likely between 13-17Z Wed. A slow lift is expected
with low-end VFR conditions possible after around 21Z Wed.
Convergence behind the front look to keep ceilings in the picture
through much of the day.
NW winds should ease tonight, becoming more southerly overnight, 5
kt or less. SW winds resume during the day and will likely turn to W
to NW by Wednesday afternoon.
62
&&
.MARINE...
Broad high pressure will continue over area waters through Thursday.
A weak frontal system will move across the waters late tonight
into early Wednesday. However, high pressure is expected to
immediately rebuild behind the front. High pressure will weaken
late in the week as a low pressure system prepares to swing
south towards area waters.
Onshore flow will continue the rest of the week through Strait of
Juan de Fuca. A stronger push of westerlies is coming this afternoon
through the Strait of Juan de Fuca and a Gale Warning is in effect
through Thursday morning. Small craft winds are also spilling into
Admiralty Inlet this afternoon, and a small craft advisory will
continue through the early overnight hours. Another strong push is
expected Wednesday afternoon. Guidance still supports a 55-65%
chance of gales through the Strait of Juan de Fuca Wednesday
afternoon, and the Gale Warning has been issued Wednesday afternoon.
Additional headlines are possible throughout the rest of the week.
Seas expected to remain below 10 ft through the weekend. Portions of
the coastal waters may see steep seas on Wednesday/Thursday as seas
build to 6-8 ft with a dominant period of 7-8 seconds.
29
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire concerns will remain low through the week with continued
onshore flow bringing moist air into the region. This will
promote higher humidities across western Washington with good
overnight recoveries. Warming and drying is forecast early next
week, though conditions are not expected to reach critical fire
weather thresholds.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for Central
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 8 AM PDT Wednesday for Central U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait
Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Watch from Wednesday afternoon through late Wednesday
night for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Wednesday for Admiralty
Inlet.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion