Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
376
FXUS66 KSEW 051022
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
322 AM PDT Fri Jun 5 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low southwest of Haida Gwaii this morning will
slowly move southeast reaching Western Washington Saturday.
Upper level disturbance spinning out of the low moving through
today. Low moves east Saturday night with a temporary upper
level ridge Sunday. Another upper trough will hang out over the
area the first part of next week for more showers and cool
temperatures. Possible strong upper level ridge beginning to
build Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Satellite imagery shows cloudy skies over Western Washington
this morning. Doppler radar already picking up some showers
along the coast. Temperatures at 3 am/10z were in the 50s.
Upper level low just southwest of Haida Gwaii this morning will
slowly move southeast ending up off the northern tip of
Vancouver Island later this afternoon. Upper level shortwave
spinning out of the low moving through for another showery day.
Can`t rule out a thunderstorm later this afternoon into the
early evening hours. Temperatures will not warm up much from the
current readings with highs near 60.
Upper level low continuing to move southeast ending up over
Western Washington Saturday afternoon. Showers tonight through
Saturday. With the low on top of the area Saturday afternoon
air mass becomes even more unstable. Models have been consistent
with the stability indexes indicating a chance of thunderstorms
( lifted indexes below 0, convective temperatures below highs,
solid lapse rates and 300 to 600 J/KG of CAPE ). Small hail also
possible with 500 mb temperatures below -25C. Snow levels down
to near 4500 feet making for a cold wet day in the upper
elevations. Lows tonight in the 40s. Highs Saturday only in the
mid 50s to lower 60s. The record low maximum for Seattle
Saturday is 52 degrees. We are not going to break that record.
The forecast high of 58 degrees would be the 3rd coldest June
6th in the last 40 years.
Upper level low weakening and moving off to the east Saturday
night. Shower activity coming to an end quickly with just a
chance of showers in the Cascades by midnight. A little bit of
clearing combined with the remnants of the cool air mass will
produce some chilly for this time of year lows Sunday morning.
The colder locations will get into the upper 30s while the
remainder of the area will be in the lower to mid 40s.
A little break in the action Sunday with a temporary upper level
ridge moving through the area. Plenty of low level moisture
hanging around in the morning with high clouds in the
afternoon. Even with a little bit of sunshine highs will still
be below normal, in the lower to mid 60s. Felton
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Extended models have been consistent in bringing an upper level
trough into Western Washington the first part of next week. The
inconsistency comes in the timing of the trough vacating the
area. Each run has been slowing down the departure with the
current runs keeping the trough over Western Washington into
Wednesday. Showers and cool forecast through the middle of next
week.
Upper level ridge building offshore Thursday with drying
northerly flow aloft clearing skies. Highs getting back to
normal Thursday, mid 60s to lower 70s.
Note...the current 8-10 day solutions on both the GFS and ECMWF
are showing the development of a strong upper level ridge. It
should be noted that if we actually got the weather predicted in
the 240 hour progs we would have a lot wilder weather here in
Western Washington. Having said that if this current solution
works out we could be looking at the first 90 degree day of the
year in Seattle the weekend after next. Stay tuned. Felton
&&
.AVIATION...
Westerly flow aloft will become more southwesterly throughout
the day as an upper level low to the west of Haida Gwaii drops
down into the area. A weak frontal system will move across the
western Washington at the surface, bringing scattered shower
activity to the area throughout the day and isolated chances
for thunderstorms this afternoon and evening in its wake.
Confidence in the extent of thunderstorm coverage remains too
low for inclusion in any single TAF site at this time. Conditions
are primarily VFR across the terminals early this morning, but
expect MVFR conditions to develop along the coast over the next
few hours as shower activity increases. Ceilings will gradually
lower area-wide throughout the day, but look to largely remain
VFR across the interior terminals. The exception would be some
brief reductions in ceilings and visibilities in any heavier
shower or isolated thunderstorm activity. Winds will remain out
of the S/SW today, persisting at 4-8 kt this morning but will
increase to 8-12 kt by this afternoon. Gusts to 20 kt will be
possible for the interior terminals of Puget Sound through the
afternoon and evening hours.
KSEA...Ceilings will gradually lower through the morning hours,
though expect VFR conditions to prevail through the majority of
the TAF period. Could see some temporary reductions in ceilings
and visibilities should any heavier shower activity make it to
the terminal throughout the day, but expect overall conditions
to remain VFR. Winds out of the S/SW at 4-8 kt will increase
later this morning to 8-12 kt, with gusts to 20 kt possible
through the afternoon and evening hours.
14
&&
.MARINE...
A weak frontal system will move across the area waters today and
could bring some breezy southerly winds to Puget Sound this
afternoon. HREF probabilities indicate a 15-25% chance of wind
gusts exceeding 21 kt, but overall conditions do not look to be
widespread, with most wind gusts expected to remain between
10-20 kt. Another push of westerly winds is likely along the
central and eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca this afternoon and
evening, but winds look to largely remain below small craft
strength at this time.
A trough of low pressure trailing the front will move onshore
on Saturday, with another round of increasing onshore flow
expected along the Strait Saturday afternoon and evening. A weak
surface ridge will traverse the waters on Sunday, before another
frontal system moves into the waters on Monday. Southerly winds
will increase across the coastal waters on Monday, and as a
result will likely bring the next round of headlines for the
area. Onshore flow will increase in the system`s wake with
Tuesday`s push of westerly winds looking like the strongest at
this time along the Strait. High pressure will then build back
into the coastal waters mid to late week.
Seas will generally range between 6-8 ft today and Saturday,
and will subside towards 4-6 ft on Sunday. A slight uptick in
seas is expected on Monday, but seas generally look to remain
below 8 ft through much of next week.
14
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
ERCs will respond to the increase in moisture over the next
several days, especially in the fine fuels. Today and more so
Saturday will feature area wide chances for thunderstorms, but
model PWAT values indicate the storms will contain adequate
QPF. The pattern turns warmer and drier the end of next week and
looks to remain that way beyond the middle of the month. Favorable
fire weather conditions will increase as the pattern remains in
place. Felton
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion