Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
954
FXUS66 KSEW 162156
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
256 PM PDT Thu Apr 16 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Dry, cool conditions are expected through Friday as
weak ridging builds into Western Washington. The next upper low
will move southwards offshore along the west coast this weekend.
Temperatures will then trend warmer early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...Dry conditions
return this afternoon with a mix of sunshine and cumulus.
Temperatures will remain in the cooler side today, with highs in
the 50s. Temperatures will fall again tonight into the low 30s
to low 40s, with the coldest temperatures from Olympia
southwards. Have issued a Frost Advisory for portions of the
Southwest Interior and southern Cascade Foothills and Valleys as
temperatures drop between 33 to 36 degrees. Low clouds may also
develop early Friday AM which may inhibit frost development
elsewhere, however, additional Frost Advisories will need to be
monitored. Otherwise, weak ridging continues to build into the
area on Friday resulting in dry conditions, and some sunshine.
An upper low will approach the Pacific Northwest well offshore
on Saturday. Dry conditions will likely continue for the
majority of western Washington through Saturday afternoon.
However, precip potential begins to increase late Saturday into
Saturday night along the Olympic Peninsula with the
aforementioned upper low offshore. High clouds will spread
overhead on Saturday as temperatures warm into the 60s. JD
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...The upper low will slide
southwards offshore Sunday into Monday. At this time,
precipitation is expected to be confined to the Olympic
Peninsula on Sunday, with dry conditions continuing for interior
locations. Predominantly drier conditions on Monday with the
upper low positioned well to the south along the northern
California coast. Precipitation chances increase slightly
Tuesday and Wednesday with wrap around moisture associated with
the upper low as it moves inland. Ensembles then suggest drier
conditions begin to prevail late next week. Temperatures will
warm into the mid 60s to low 70s Sunday and Monday, with areas
of minor HeatRisk across southern and central Puget Sound.
Otherwise, conditions cool a few degrees for midweek. JD
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions this afternoon. There is medium to high
confidence (40-80%) that MVFR cigs will return tonight into Friday
morning. Highest chances for MVFR cigs will be north of PAE.
Improvement to VFR is likely after 18Z Friday. Winds generally SW
this afternoon around 5-10 kt. A westerly push down the Strait of
Juan de Fuca will switch winds at PAE northerly after 00Z. Winds at
BFI and SEA expected to remain southerly, but rather switching SE
after 06Z. High pressure building over the area will establish
widespread northerly surface flow Friday morning.
KSEA...VFR cigs will continue this afternoon. MVFR cigs possible (40-
60% chance Friday morning between 11Z-18Z. VFR cigs return Friday
afternoon. SW winds this afternoon at 6-10 kt will shift SE
overnight at 4-6 kt. Winds will shift northerly after 16Z-18Z
Friday.
29
&&
.MARINE...Confidence has increased, now greater than 70%) with the
latest high- resolution guidance for the westerly push through
the Strait of Juan de Fuca meeting small craft criteria.
Therefore, a Small Craft Advisory has been issued for the
Central and Eastern portions of the Strait of Juan de Fuca.
Guidance also suggests that the small craft winds push through
Admiralty Inlet as and thus this marine zone has also been added
to the Small Craft Advisory. High pressure will continue
building over area waters through early Saturday, before it
weakens later that day with the next frontal system arriving.
Conditions with this system look to remain below small craft
criteria at this time, with current probabilities ranging
between 30- 50% of winds exceeding 21 kt for the coastal waters.
Seas will build slightly this weekend and into early next week
to 4-7 ft this weekend, with the highest seas over the outer
coastal waters. While seas will remain below 10 ft, seas will be
steep as the dominant period will be around 7 to 8 seconds.
Grays Harbor bar is expected to enter a period of very strong ebb
currents over the next few days. While seas will continue subsiding,
seas may remain rough around the ebbs the next few mornings.
29
&&
.HYDROLOGY...No river flooding is expected over the next 7 days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM PDT Friday for Foothills and
Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Foothills
and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis Counties-Lowlands of
Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Middle Chehalis
River Valley-Willapa and Black Hills.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
Friday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 3 AM PDT Friday
for Admiralty Inlet.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion