Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
656
FXUS66 KSEW 100858 CCA
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
157 AM PDT Sun May 10 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal system will clip the area today for increased
cloud cover and cooler temperatures. Warming temperatures and high
pressure return to the area early in the week, with Tuesday likely
to be the warmest day. A transition to a cooler, more unsettled
pattern is expected for the second half of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High and mid level clouds continue to stream across the area
early this morning ahead of a dissipating frontal system that
will shift onshore later today. We could get a pretty
spectacular sunrise out of this in places. High temperatures
will cool several degrees and a few spots near the coast and
across the North Interior might get a shower or two. High
pressure aloft will begin to rebuild into the region tonight
into Monday with the low level flow turning northerly. After a
few morning clouds, Monday will feature mostly sunny skies,
modestly warmer temperatures and breezy north winds through
Puget Sound. Thermally induced low pressure at the surface
expands northward along the coast early Tuesday with the low
level flow turning weakly offshore. This will give us a good
spike in temperatures with most of the area, including the
coast, seeing highs in the 70s and lower (even a few mid) 80s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The forecast picture, particularly on Wednesday, takes a more
difficult turn as we transition to low level onshore flow and a
closed upper trough approaches somewhere near the Northern
California coast. The ensembles have been having a tough time
for several days resolving how this will ultimately play out. It
potentially puts Western Washington in a region of southerly
flow aloft along with some diffluence and associated elevated
instability. Throw in some daytime heating and we have a recipe
for potential thunderstorms. It must be stressed that this
scenario is highly certain at this time, but the potential is
there. Forecast high temperatures across the interior on
Wednesday are quite uncertain...i.e. Ensembles for Seattle have
a 15+ degree spread for Seattle`s high temperature.
Thursday into next weekend, the ensembles are settling into
general agreement that upper troughing over the Northeast
Pacific will send a series of weak systems across the area for a
few days of cooler temperatures and periodic chances of some
light precip. 27
&&
.AVIATION...
Southwest flow aloft will increase ahead of a trough/front moving
across the terminals late tonight. There is a low 30% chance of a
shower across the Puget Sound this afternoon, although conditions
are largely dry through the TAF period. Ceilings remain elevated for
most areas, especially in the interior. The only concern for lower
ceilings this morning is the return of stratus to the coast early
this morning (conditions likely to be as low as LIFR on the
immediate coastline through the morning). Elevated stratus further
inland remains intact through the afternoon, keeping probabilities
of lower ceilings low this morning, and most likely VFR throughout
the day. A push behind the trough Monday morning appears likely,
with stratus making it inland into the interior. Winds variable this
morning out of the southwest/northwest this morning, solidifying to
northwest by early afternoon with sustained winds 5-10 kt (couple
gusts to 20-25 kt in the Strait of Juan de Fuca areas this
afternoon).
KSEA...VFR expected today, with high clouds beginning to scatter
later in the afternoon. Lamp has a 30-50% chance of MVFR stratus
returning to the terminal Monday morning (from roughly 10Z-17Z).
Winds variable between southwest/northwest this morning around 5 kt,
becoming north/northwest today 5-10 kt. Couple gusts to 20 kt
possible in the afternoon.
HPR
&&
.MARINE...
A weak trough will move through the waters today, with a slight
chance of a shower in the Puget Sound later in the afternoon. Behind
the trough, an onshore push will likely bring gusty winds in the
eastern two thirds of the Strait of Juan de Fuca this afternoon and
evening. A small craft advisory was issued through tonight. Outside
of this, winds remain relatively light and primarily out of the
north through the week. A potential system midweek may bring another
push through the strait. Additionally, while low stratus is expected
off the coast next couple mornings, there is potential for some
pockets of fog over the coastal waters (especially in areas where
the wind is calmer).
Seas will hold around 4-6 ft through the week (with a brief jump to
6-8 ft midweek).
HPR
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the
next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as
needed.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 3 AM PDT
Monday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion