Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
367
FXUS66 KSEW 091009
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
309 AM PDT Fri Oct 9 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will be moving inland this morning, bringing
rain, breezy winds and elevated seas to the area today. Cooler
temperatures are expected to follow this front through the
weekend and into early next week. Overnight lows over the
weekend may be enough for localized frost and freeze potential.
The next front to impact the area looks to arrive on Tuesday for
more rain and breezy winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The front has arrived on the northern coast early this morning
and will bring rain to much of the area throughout the day. The
front is moving fairly quickly, with most of the rain expected
to be focused in the morning and early afternoon. Rainfall
amounts will be just over a quarter of an inch in the central
and northern Cascades, with lowland locations expected to see a
tenth or less. Snow levels today remain between 5000 and 5500
feet, with a dusting of snow still probable in the higher
terrain of the North Cascades.
Breezy westerly to southwesterly winds will impact much of the
area during the morning. A concurrent westerly push through the
Strait of Juan de Fuca will transition the winds through Puget
Sound from westerly to northerly by late this morning. This also
means that there will likely be convergence zone activity
setting up early this afternoon in central/south King County.
Outside of convergence zone activity, expect the showers to
become more scattered through the afternoon and evening hours.
The strongest gusts (25-35 mph) look to be primarily focused in
the northern inland waters, and the Pacific coast. However,
there is around a 40-50% chance of wind gusts greater than 35
mph between Port Angeles and Port Townsend, potentially as far
east as Whidbey Island this evening. Winds region-wide will be
easing tonight into Saturday.
Cooler temperatures are in store behind this front for the
weekend for both the highs and lows. Highs will be in the upper
50s to low 60s and overnight lows will be in the upper 30s to
low 40s. The mid to upper 30s are most favored in the Cascades
and valley locations. Frost and freeze potential is still in the
forecast particularly for Sunday and Monday morning. Those with
agricultural interest or those with otherwise sensitive
vegetation will want to monitor the forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday and Monday night will be cold, with daytime highs
continuing in the low 60s. This seems to be a fairly steady
expectation through the middle of the week. That said, the
models are suggestive of another front moving in Tuesday into
Wednesday which could bring about another round of rain and
breezy winds. Beyond the middle of the week, there is
uncertainty in the pattern but they indicate generally that a
return to high pressure and mild conditions is favored.
21
&&
.AVIATION...
A frontal system will move through the area this morning. Post
frontal convergence zone setting up over the Central Puget Sound
this afternoon dissipating this evening. Another convergence
zone setting up Saturday morning over the Central Sound.
Southwesterly flow aloft this morning becoming northwesterly
this afternoon and northeasterly Saturday morning.
LIFR/IFR ceilings this morning lifting to MVFR this afternoon
and VFR this evening. Ceilings in the convergence zone lowering
back down to MVFR Saturday morning.
KSEA...LIFR ceilings with visibility 3-5sm until 15Z. Ceilings
lifting to IFR late morning, MVFR this afternoon and VFR this
evening. Ceilings lowering back down to MVFR Saturday morning.
Southerly winds 6 to 10 knots rising to 10 to 15 kt switching
to northerly 6 to 10 kt this afternoon. Winds coming back around
to southeasterly 6 to 10 kt this evening. Felton
&&
.MARINE...
A frontal system will move across the waters this
morning. A weak surface low will move in behind the front
tonight and Saturday. High pressure will build back into the
coastal waters Sunday with lower pressure inland. Another system
will possibly arrive Tuesday night.
Gale force winds coastal waters and Central and Eastern Strait
of Juan de Fuca through this evening. Small craft advisory winds
over the remainder of the waters except the Puget Sound through
this evening. Small craft advisory winds continuing over the
coastal waters later this evening through Saturday.
Seas over the inner coastal waters building to 9 to 12 feet
later today and tonight subsiding to 7 to 10 ft Saturday
morning. Seas over the outer coastal waters 9 to 14 feet today
into tonight subsiding to 8 to 11 feet Saturday. Felton
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT
this evening for Grays Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for West
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for
Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape
Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters
From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-
East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for
Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM PDT this
evening for Admiralty Inlet.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Coastal
Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60
Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion