Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
594
FXUS66 KSEW 022320
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
320 PM PST Mon Mar 2 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and mild conditions this afternoon will be short-lived,
with increasing clouds already ahead of the next disturbance. A
frontal system crosses the region tomorrow, bringing a return of
lowland rain and mountain snow. Snow levels lower a bit later
in the week, with additional weather systems moving through the
region and maintaining periods of precipitation.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
After a relatively mild afternoon across most of the region
today under mostly clear skies, a change in the weather is in
store starting tomorrow. The next front will move through the
area Tuesday, with the leading rain arriving at the coast late
tonight and pushing east across the region during the day. Snow
levels are initially high, around 5000 ft or so, which will
limit snow accumulations to the higher Cascade elevations. Some
gusty winds near the coast and portions of the interior, with
gusts reaching 30 mph in the windiest locations. Snow levels
lower a bit Wednesday down to around 3500-4000 ft, allowing for
around 6 to 12 inches above 5000 ft and a few inches of snow
down the the Cascade passes through Wednesday. Given the current
probabilities of advisory amounts at Stevens remaining only
30-40%, and closer to 60% at Paradise and around Mt Baker, will
hold off on any winter headline issuance. An advisory may be
required for these last two areas if the current trends hold.
Onshore flow will increase Wednesday behind the front,
maintaining additional precipitation across the region
(especially the mountains) and bringing the potential for the
development of a Puget Sound Convergence Zone. With the general
instability increasing, there`s around a 15% chance for a
thunderstorm to develop in the post-frontal air mass, but these
are expected to be isolated and infrequent at most - generally
just one or two lightning strikes at some point across the
region.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The pattern will remain active as multiple systems look to cross
over western Washington throughout the weekend and into early
next week. Periods of lowland rain and mountain snow will
continue, along with slightly cooler conditions, with high
temperatures in the upper 40s and overnight lows in the lower
40s.
&&
.AVIATION...
Flow turning westerly/southwesterly as an ridge shifts to an
east and troughing approaches western Washington. VFR conditions
this afternoon as mostly clear skies prevail. Light southerly
winds will continue, increasing late Tuesday morning 8 to 12
knots as a weak front moves over the region. Ceilings will lower
to MVFR around 09z-14z, with MVFR likely continuing throughout
the afternoon and evening as scattered showers continue.
KSEA...VFR conditions this afternoon. Southerly winds remaining
light, increasing to 8 to 12 knots by late morning 16z-19z as
rain showers develop at the terminal. Ceilings will also lower
down to MVFR 09z-12z, likely remaining MVFR throughout the
afternoon.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure continues to break down across the waters, with
relatively light winds and small seas given the weak gradients.
This break will be short-lived, though, as the next frontal
system begins to approach the waters. While the front isn`t
particularly strong, expect southerly winds to 20 kt with
frequent gusts to 25 kt spreading over the coastal waters early
Tuesday. Chances for gusty southerly winds over the east
entrance and extending south over the northern half of the Puget
Sound zone remain lower, around 40% or so, so will hold off on
any headlines there. Meanwhile over the coastal waters, expect
the seas to be quite choppy as short period waves build; the
winds aren`t strong enough or long duration enough to build much
higher than 6 ft, but with dominant periods 6 to 7 seconds it
will be rough.
Additional advisories may be needed with west winds increasing
through the Strait on Wednesday, and also later in the week for
the coastal waters as seas build further to around 11 ft late
Wednesday through Thursday. After a briefly subsiding, another
west swell is likely to arrive over the weekend again pushing
seas above 10 ft.
Cullen
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding is expected during the next seven days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion