Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
078
FXUS66 KSEW 050340
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
735 PM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
.UPDATE...
Mostly clear skies in place over western Washington although some
high clouds possible over the northern third of the CWA. Already
starting to see some low stratus and fog development over portions
of the south Sound and Chehalis River Valley and will expect fog to
spread into portions of the east Sound, the islands and as far north
as Bellingham overnight. Inherited forecast is on track with no need
for updates. An updated Aviation Discussion is below.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure continues to remain over the region this
week, maintaining unseasonably warm and dry conditions across
western Washington. Areas of fog and low clouds may develop the
next few mornings. Expect a return to cooler and wet conditions
this weekend, with snow levels falling to around 4000 ft for the
start of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains solidly in place over western Washington
for the next several days. Temperatures are already well into
the upper 50s to around 60. With high cloud cover continuing to
lift north, this should lead to some clearing into the overnight
hours allowing temperatures to dip a little cooler than this
morning`s warm overnight lows. Little change the next few days
with some areas of morning fog giving way to a dry and mild
afternoon through Friday. Ensemble guidance suggests rain with
the next system likely (>70%) holds off until late Friday
afternoon for the coastal areas, before pushing inland late
Friday night. This will usher a return to much cooler
temperatures and renewed precipitation.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ensemble guidance remains in good agreement for a more active
period as the next upper trough moves into the region for the
weekend and continued disturbances cross through the start of
next week. This will return temperatures much closer to seasonal
normals and maintain rounds of precipitation across the region.
Snow levels initially remain higher (5000 ft or higher), but
lower to 4000 ft by the end of the weekend. This brings most
likely amounts of 4-6 inches to Stevens Pass Sunday and Monday
and perhaps even a few inches at Snoqualmie into Monday. With
cooler air spreading in next week, the snow level likely remains
around 3000 ft or so through mid week. However, limited moisture
remains as colder air enters the region, which will preclude
higher chances of significant snowfall amounts. Spread in the
ensemble members increases more significantly midweek and beyond
with differences in how the pattern evolves yielding a wider
range of potential outcomes. That said, about 70% percent of
global ensemble members suggest the return of zonal flow over
the region, which leaves the region open to showers passing at
times and temperatures remaining near normal values for the time
of year.
&&
.AVIATION...
An upper ridge centered over the Great Basin and broad troughing
offshore will produce southwest flow aloft becoming southerly on
Thursday. Low level offshore flow continues. High level moisture
filtering through the ridge is expected to thin today with
continuing VFR conditions. Greater coverage/probability of LIFR fog
and low clouds is expected late tonight into Thursday morning for
interior areas (from central Puget Sound southward into the Chehalis
Valley, as well as the Strait of Juan de Fuca areas). Most areas are
expected to clear Thursday afternoon, though low clouds may linger
much of the day across the Southwest Interior. Winds through the
forecast will remain light and variable between the NE/SE less than
5 kt, increasing to 4-8 kt during the day Thursday.
KSEA...VFR through the first part of tonight. LIFR conditions with
fog and/or low clouds and periods of surface visibility below 1SM
are expected between 11Z and 18Z. VFR is expected again Thursday
afternoon. Surface winds light and variable today becoming N/NE 7 to
10 knots on Thursday morning.
27/HPR
&&
.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will remain centered over the interior with a
broad trough of low pressure offshore producing offshore flow across
area waters on Thursday. Active conditions well offshore will
continue to produce hazardous seas over the coastal waters this
week. A series of frontal systems will begin to reach the waters
this weekend into early next week.
Dense fog will be a possibility over the inland waters through
the next couple of mornings.
27
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The return to a wet and active pattern late in the week will
bring another rise above action stage to the Skokomish River.
With 2-day rainfall totals of 2.5 to 3 inches across the
Olympics, flooding is not currently forecast and there remains
less than a 30% chance of this occuring. However, with snow
levels near 5000 ft for much of the precipitation this weekend
before lowering to around 4,000 to 3,500 ft later Sunday and
Monday, this potential will need to be monitored closely.
Elsewhere, rainfall amounts and snow levels are expected to
preclude river flooding elsewhere through the next seven days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for Grays Harbor
Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion