Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
042
FXUS66 KSEW 082305
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
305 PM PST Sun Nov 8 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A brief break in the weather this afternoon with some showers
around. Multiple systems look to cross over the area through
Tuesday, bringing rounds of widespread lowland rain, gusty
winds, and high elevation mountain snow. Active weather
continues through the end of the week with additional systems
passing into the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Recent radar imagery shows some scattered showers across the
Northern Interior and Cascades. Expect this trend to continue
throughout the evening hours, with a slight chance (10-20%) of
thunderstorms north of Everett. An upper level ridge will move
through the area tonight, with drying overnight. Another frontal
system will start to move over the area by Monday morning, with
rain reaching the coast by the afternoon. Rain will slowly move
through the interior by the late afternoon and early evening
hours. Additionally, southerly winds will increase once again,
with widespread gusts of 20 to 30 mph possible at times
throughout much of the area (less strong than the previous days
wind). Areas along the coast and Whidbey Island could see gusts
up to 35 mph. High temperatures in the mid to upper 50s.
Heading into Tuesday, a long fetch of moisture being aimed at
Vancouver Island slightly moves down through western Washington.
We`ll see another round of widespread rain, with a bulk of the
QPF being aimed right at the coast and the Olympic Peninsula.
Southerly winds will increase in the afternoon and be slightly
stronger than Mondays, with widespread gusts of 35 to 45 mph
along the coast, and areas Whidbey Island northward. Rain and
wind will continue into Wednesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level troughing continues Wednesday into Thursday for some
scattered shower activity over the region, keeping conditions
unsettled. Additionally, minor coastal flooding may be possible
on Wednesday morning due to high astronomical tides, primarily
along the shorelines of San Juans and Whatcom county. High
temps warm up slightly on Wednesday, in the low 60s.
Latest ensemble guidance shows an upper level low around BC that
is funneling a plume of moisture towards BC and western
Washington Friday into Saturday. At this time, looks like active
weather will continue, with widespread rain and breezy winds
into the weekend. We`ll continue to monitor this system as it
gets closer.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.AVIATION...
Scattered showers will taper across the area into this evening
for a brief break in between weather systems. Terminals are
largely VFR and will remain so through tonight. Winds have
remained breezy to 20 kt this afternoon, but will continue to
ease over the next few hours, persisting at 5-10 kt through
this evening. Winds will then become light and shift more easterly
after 06Z. Despite high cloud cover streaming in overhead, a few
patchy areas of fog may develop at the more fog-prone terminals
across the southern Sound (like KOLM) overnight. Should fog
develop, it may briefly bring a few hours of IFR to LIFR conditions
to terminals on Monday morning. Another frontal system will
move across the area on Monday, bringing another round of rain
and breezy winds to the area terminals. Latest hi-res shows rain
starting to move inland along the coast between 19-21Z, before
spreading into the interior between 21-23Z. Conditions will
likely drop down to MVFR as the rain pushes inland. Winds will
pick up to 8-12 kt along the coastal terminals in the morning,
before picking up across the interior terminals in the
afternoon. Gusts to 25 kt will be possible as the system moves
through.
KSEA...VFR conditions will persist through Monday morning at the
terminal. Southerly winds persisting at 8-12 kt with some gusts
to 20 kt this afternoon will continue to ease through this evening.
Winds will become light overnight, shifting to the east after 06Z.
Another round of rain will move into the terminal Monday afternoon,
likely between 21-23Z. There is a 40-50% chance of conditions
dropping down to MVFR Monday afternoon as the rain moves in.
Southerly winds will increase Monday afternoon as the system
approaches, persisting at 8-12 kts, with gusts to 20 kt.
14
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure building back over the area this evening will
bring a brief period of calmer winds to the waters through late
tonight. The next frontal system will move across the coastal
waters on Monday, with winds starting to increase across the
coastal waters again by early Monday morning and across the
interior waters by late morning. Winds will peak in the
afternoon, before easing Monday night. Gale warnings are in
effect for the Coastal Waters and the Eastern Strait, where
probabilities continue to highlight roughly a 60-80% chance of
gusts reaching 34 kt. Elsewhere, southerly winds will be breezy,
with winds gusting to small craft strength through the afternoon
and early evening. There will be a brief lull in winds on
Monday night, before another system moves into the region on
Tuesday and brings a stronger round of southerlies to the area
waters and likely another round of widespread headlines. The
weather will remain active through the end of the week as
additional frontal systems move through the waters.
Seas between 19-24 ft this afternoon will gradually subside
towards 10-12 ft on Monday before the next system brings seas
back to the 16-18 ft range on Tuesday. Seas will largely remain
above 13 ft through much of the week. The next best chance for
seas to build to 20 ft will be by next weekend, with the GEFS
highlighting a 30-40% chance of seas exceeding 20 ft off the
Washington coast.
14
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
River flooding is not expected the next seven days. Multiple
weather systems moving through the area in the next week. While
current precipitation forecasts are not expected to cause
flooding, this will saturate soils and raise base flows. If the
atmospheric river stalls over the area late next week into next
weekend we might need to keep an eye on our old friend the
Skokomish River. Felton
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...High Surf Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Grays
Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for Grays Harbor
Bar-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Monday for East Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Monday for
Admiralty Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The San
Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Monday to 4 AM PST Tuesday for
Puget Sound and Hood Canal.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Gale Warning from 4 AM to 7 PM PST Monday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion