Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
744
FXUS66 KSEW 022154
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
254 PM PDT Wed Sep 2 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A vigorous early season storm system moving through the area
this afternoon and evening will bring gusty winds, rain and
even isolated thunderstorms for some areas. The overall weather
pattern will remain cool and unsettled through the weekend with
possible drying and warming following early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Rain has moved onshore through the late morning, and into the
central Puget Sound as of early afternoon. Progression of the
system has been a bit slower, but overall forecast remains on
track, with rain spreading through the interior through the
afternoon and evening. In addition to the rainfall, there
remains a 15-20% chance of isolated thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening - particularly along the coast and Olympic
Peninsula. Southerly winds along the coast will continue to
pick up over the interior through the afternoon into the early
evening. Strongest winds over the interior - especially in the
Admiralty Inlet area, San Juan Islands, Western Whatcom and
Skagit Counties and even along the I-5 corridor south of Olympia
could see gusts to 40 or 45 mph. Impacts associated with gusty
winds may occur at lower wind speeds due to Summer foliage on
trees. Steady rain will change to showers behind the front this
evening, with winds easing along the coast early evening and
over the interior before midnight.
The associated upper level low will linger over the region
Thursday and Friday - keeping the overall pattern relatively
cool and unstable - with showers and 15 to 25% chance of
afternoon and evening thunderstorms especially over the
mountains.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ensemble-based clustering systems continue to emphasize the
likelihood of the upper level low/trough remaining over the
Pacific Northwest through the weekend. Differences in the
forecast remain largely limited to differences with embedded
features or whether or not the upper level low opens up and
lingers as a trough (17% of the members) or lingers as a more
consolidated upper level low (83% of the members). Ultimately
this equates to a high degree of confidence in the cooler
unsettled pattern lingering through the weekend, with showers
and potentially potential isolated thunderstorms especially over
the mountains. Ensemble clusters show the pattern opening up
early in the week, allowing the upper level system to shift
eastward with much of the variability in how progressively this
occurs. 15% of the members falling into a more progressive or
faster scenarios at day 6 (Monday), and the bulk of the
remaining members pushing the change into Tuesday. The overall
message remains for a transition to drier and relatively warmer
conditions early next week.
&&
.AVIATION...South to southwest flow aloft into Thursday an an upper
low digs southwards along the Washington coast. A front continues to
move across the area this afternoon with rain spreading across Puget
Sound. The bulk of the stratiform rain moves out of W WA by this
evening. A few rain showers will then exist along Olympic Peninsula
tonight, with a 20% probability for thunderstorms along the southern
WA coast. VFR cigs for most areas into tonight with MVFR along the
coast and in areas of heavier rain. Cigs may slowly lower towards
higher end MVFR for localized Puget Sound terminals Thursday AM.
Breezy south winds through this afternoon. Gusts will be strongest
along the coast and north of PAE with the exception being CLM. Winds
will slowly ease tonight.
KSEA...VFR conditions are expected to continue into tonight. A front
is moving through this afternoon with the majority of steadier rain
ending around 01z. A few showers will linger later tonight into
Thursday. Cigs slowly lower towards low-end VFR and high-end MVFR
Thursday morning, with a 30-35% chance of MVFR cigs between 13 to
18z Thursday. Breezy south winds this afternoon, peaking through
01z. Wind gusts of 20 to 25 kts are expected during this period.
South winds continue into Thursday. JD
&&
.MARINE...A frontal system continues to move across Western
Washington this afternoon for increased southerly winds. Gale force
wind gusts over the Coastal Waters will taper off this evening, with
gales continuing into this evening for the eastern Strait of Juan de
Fuca, Admiralty Inlet, and northern inland waters. Southerly winds
will taper off tonight, but remain breezy in these aforementioned
areas, as such, a Small Craft Advisory continues tonight. Otherwise,
light winds are expected late Thursday through Friday with broad low
pressure over the region. Northerly winds develop Saturday and
continue into early next week.
Rain showers linger tonight through Thursday. There is a 20 to 30%
chance for thunderstorms along the Coastal Waters tonight, with a 10
to 25% chance of thunderstorms for all waters Thursday afternoon.
Seas ranging 8 to 14 feet today. Seas remain in the 8 to 11 foot
range tonight through Thursday morning. Seas further ease to 4 to 6
feet late Thursday through the weekend. JD
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory until 8 PM PDT this evening for Island County-
Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish
Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Port Townsend
Area-San Juan County.
Wind Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Grays Harbor
County Coast-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston
Counties-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Grays
Harbor Bar.
Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Admiralty Inlet-
East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern
Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 11 AM PDT
Thursday for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including
The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Puget
Sound and Hood Canal.
Gale Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM PDT
Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To
James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island
To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James
Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion