Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
781
FXUS66 KSEW 081130
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
330 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Showers continuing through Thursday with
accumulating snowfall in the mountains. Drier conditions are
expected Friday into Saturday. Another frontal system will move
into Western Washington Sunday, with warmer temperatures and
continued precipitation early next week. Dry conditions are
favored to develop midweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Scattered showers
continue across Western Washington early this morning,
particularly in the Cascades and along the Olympic Peninsula.
This trend will continue through the afternoon. Snow levels will
remain lower this morning as well, ranging 800 to 1300 feet.
Brief rain/snow mix may occur in heavier showers, however, no
snow accumulation is expected for the lowlands. Minor snow
accumulations may exist in the Cascade Valleys through the
morning, especially along US-2 (due to weak convergence) and
into Skagit/Whatcom Counties where hi-res guidance suggests
heavier precipitation may develop by mid-morning. These areas
include Index to Skykomish, and in the vicinity of Darrington.
Otherwise, moderate to heavy snowfall will continue at times in
the Cascades, including for the Cascade Passes. A Winter Storm
Warning remains in effect for the Cascades through this
afternoon. Precipitation will slowly taper off this evening in
the lowlands and into Friday morning for the Cascades.
High surf conditions will continue through early afternoon
along the Pacific Coast. Waves 18 to 24 feet are expected
through the morning, before waves subside later today. This
could result in dangerous conditions for beachgoers this
morning.
High pressure will build into Western Washington Friday into
early Saturday, resulting in a period of drier weather. Another
front will move onshore across the Olympic Peninsula late
Saturday, and slowly progress eastwards over the weekend.
Temperatures will gradually warm Friday and Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...The
aforementioned front will continue to bring precipitation on
Sunday, particularly over the Olympic Peninsula. Snow levels
will also rise significantly on Sunday, approaching 5500 to 6500
feet by late weekend. There remains more considerable
uncertainty in the QPF amounts for Monday and Tuesday. Another
frontal system may stall over Western Washington, bring heavier
QPF at times during this period. EPS/GEPS maintains higher QPF
amounts than the GEFS, as the front slides farther southwards
(heaviest from King CO northwards). This uncertainty can be seen
in the 10-90th PCT spread in NBM.. for example, for Stevens
Pass, the 10th-90th PCT range in QPF is 0" to 3.25" in 48 hours
(ending 12z Tuesday). Snow levels will also remain high Monday
and Tuesday, likely peaking between 6500 to 7500 feet. At this
time, river flooding is not expected as drier conditions return
on Wednesday, but rivers will be monitored if heavier QPF comes
to fruition with melting snow in the mountains. Otherwise, upper
ridging builds further over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday,
with drier conditions remaining the predominant theme into late
week as noted by the latest CPC outlook. JD
&&
.AVIATION...Upper level ridge building offshore today with the
ridge moving inland Friday. Northwesterly flow aloft becoming
westerly Friday. Onshore flow in the lower levels today becoming
light tonight. Weak offshore flow developing Friday.
A mix of MVFR and VFR ceilings today. Most of the MVFR ceilings
associated with shower activity, that will be decreasing in the
afternoon, and around a convergence zone. The zone between KPAE
and KBFI early this morning will lift north to north of KPAE by
18z. Convergence zone dissipating after 00z. Patchy fog over
the Kitsap peninsula with LIFR conditions until 17z.
Low level flow going light overnight with widespread IFR ceilings
Friday morning.
KSEA...Scattered cloud layer around 2500 feet could go broken
for a few hours this morning. VFR ceilings this afternoon.
Ceilings lowering Friday morning down to IFR. Southwest wind 4
to 8 knots increasing to 8 to 12 knots this morning. Winds
easing back down to 4 to 8 knots after 03z. Felton
&&
.MARINE...High pressure will rebuild over the waters today and
remain through Friday night. A weak frontal system will move
across the area Saturday. Systems will move through the northern
portion of the waters Sunday and Monday. High pressure will
rebuild Tuesday.
Small craft advisory westerly winds in the Central and Eastern
Strait of Juan de Fuca this morning. Winds easing midday.
Winds increasing over the coastal waters Friday night with small
craft advisory winds over the weekend.
Seas 13 to 18 feet subsiding to 10 to 14 feet tonight and 8 to
12 feet Friday. Seas building Saturday with 12 to 16 foot seas
by Sunday. Seas subsiding again Monday down to 8 to 11 feet
Monday night. Felton
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Drier conditions are expected Friday into Saturday.
Another, potentially wet system is expected Sunday-Tuesday.
There is still a fairly wide range out potential outcomes in
regards to QPF amounts during this period. Snow levels will also
rise early next week towards 6500 to 7500 feet. River flooding
is not expected at this time, but rivers will need to be
monitored.
Dry conditions are then expected by the middle of next week
which are favored to persist well into the week-2 time frame.
JD/Wolcott
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of
Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern
King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties.
High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Grays
Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST Friday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar-
West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until noon PST today for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion