Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
817
FXUS66 KSEW 150407
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
805 PM PST Wed Jan 14 2026
.UPDATE...
Stratus and fog will once again be the main forecast issue this
evening and tonight, and latest satellite trends show this
manifesting west to east. Precip over portions of Whatcom and Skagit
counties has wrapped up according to latest radar. Inherited
forecast remains on track and no need for an evening update.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure remains the dominant weather feature
throughout the rest of this week and into the weekend. Drier
conditions remain in the forecast, as well as chances for
widespread stratus and patchy fog over the next several days.
Areas that clear will have a higher likelihood of fogging in.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A decaying weather system skirting to the north of the forecast
area has had little perceptible impacts on the weather today, as
stratus has blanketed the lowlands of Puget Sound. The stratus
has been widespread throughout the lowlands today, with clearer
skies in the mountains and adjacent foothills. Temperatures have
been cooler than yesterday, which were above average for this
time of year.
An increase in easterly flow, particularly through the Cascade
gaps is in the forecast for tomorrow. Winds will increase
beginning around midday out of the northeast in Puget Sound, and
in the late afternoon in the Cascades, lasting into Friday
morning. Easterly wind gusts are forecast to be between 15 and
25 mph, peaking Friday morning. Any fog and/or stratus that is
present Thursday morning should erode fairly quickly as the dry
easterly flow moves into Puget Sound.
21
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Clearer skies are forecast for the weekend as the high pressure
moves a bit more directly over the state. The cluster analysis
shows the ridge flattening out a bit by early next week, which
at this point is more of a signal for more expansive fog
coverage early next week as opposed to precipitation. The much
extended forecast shows more of an indication of low pressure
coming back, but it is far too uncertain to pin down at this
point.
21
&&
.AVIATION...
An upper level ridge will remain the dominant influence over the
region through the TAF period, with westerly flow aloft becoming
more northerly tonight. A weak, decaying front at the surface will
dissipate over the coastal waters this evening and will allow for
some high cloud cover to stream in overhead. Latest satellite
imagery showing stratus moving in over the western half of the CWA
and pattern suggests tonight will be similar to what was experienced
last night and early this morning.
That said, cigs currently a mixed bag with VFR, MVFR and IFR
conditions present...the latter two being present over the majority
of the CWA, while VFR conditions linger in, of all places, the south
Sound. Widespread MVFR to IFR conditions late tonight into tomorrow
as another round of low stratus will be possible overnight into
Thursday morning, with latest guidance hinting at roughly a 30-45
percent chance of conditions lowering to IFR across the central
Sound terminals and a 20-35 percent chance for terminals lowering to
IFR along the coast. Models continue to show that clearing skies
will kick in Thursday afternoon and evening.
Winds will remain light and variable between 3-6 kt through the much
of the overnight period, before increasing to 7-12 kt from the north
through the morning hours on Thursday.
KSEA...Conditions have rebounded to VFR for now, but the terminal
seems to be bouncing back and forth between that and MVFR. Another
round of low stratus will be possible at the terminal by Thursday
morning, with probabilistic guidance indicating a 30-40 percent
chance of conditions lowering back down to IFR early Thursday. Light
and variable winds 3-6 kt will continue through the overnight
period, before increasing to 7-12 kt Thursday morning (between 13-
16Z).
14/18
&&
.MARINE...
A weak frontal system will dissipate over the coastal waters
this afternoon. A strong surface high over the northeastern
Pacific will then strengthen and move into the interior of
British Columbia on Thursday, while a thermal trough builds
along the coast. Offshore flow will develop as a result and
will bring gusty winds near the gaps in coastal terrain at times
through the weekend. This will mainly impact the central and
western Strait of Juan de Fuca waters and the coastal water
zones from Cape Flattery to James Island and from Point
Grenville to Cape Shoalwater (out to 60 NM).
Seas will hover between 10-12 ft today, with a Small Craft
Advisories in effect for the coastal waters and the west
Entrance of the Strait through tonight. Seas will gradually
subside back towards 3-6 ft by Friday and persist at this range
into early next week.
14
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding is expected over the next 7 days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Grays
Harbor Bar-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Thursday for
Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Thursday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion