Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
675
FXUS66 KSEW 240333
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
833 PM PDT Wed Sep 23 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Light showers and cloudy conditions will continue across western
Washington this afternoon as a weak frontal system moves across
the area. A stronger, more fall-like system will move through
the region Thursday night into Friday, bringing more widespread
rain and some gusty winds to western Washington. Drier conditions
are expected this weekend, however additional chances of
precipitation will return to the area by early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Upper level troughing remains situated over the Pacific Northwest
today, while a weak surface front pushes out of the area this
afternoon. Conditions remain cooler and cloudier across portions
of the interior as a result. Expect low clouds to scatter over
the next few hours for a mix of mid to high clouds and some sun
later this afternoon. High temperatures will be in the 60s area-
wide.
A stronger, more fall-like system will move into the area
Thursday night into Friday, bringing more widespread rain to
western Washington and some gusty winds to the coast and the
Strait of Juan de Fuca. Showers will start to move in along the
coast by Thursday afternoon, with rain becoming more widespread
Thursday night into Friday morning. Most lowland locations will
receive between half an inch to an inch of rainfall, with the
Olympics and Cascades likely to receive between an inch and an
inch and a half of rain. Rain will taper to showers through the
day Friday as the upper level trough axis swings across the region.
A slight chance of thunderstorms will be possible Friday
afternoon and evening as conditions become more unstable in its
wake. Snow levels falling between 5000-6000 ft by late Friday
night will bring the first dusting of snow of the season to the
higher peaks in the Cascades. Winds will increase across the
area on Friday as a surface low approaches the coast. The
strength of the winds will be highly dependent on the low`s
track, with the most likely scenario, at this time, highlighting
wind gusts reaching 35-45 mph along the coast Friday morning.
Should the track shift further northward, there remains a small,
roughly 10 percent chance, that the Grays Harbor County coast
could see a brief period of gusts exceeding 55 mph. Outside of
the coast, expect the strongest winds to be along the Strait of
Juan de Fuca Friday afternoon and evening, where gusts to 35-45
mph are likely.
Cooler temperatures are expected Thursday and Friday, with
afternoon highs only expected to top out in the upper 50s to
low 60s. Morning lows will be in the mid 40s to low 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A few showers may linger across the North Cascades into Saturday
morning, but expect overall conditions to dry out over the
weekend. Temperatures will remain cool and below normal, with
afternoon highs expected to be in low to mid 60s and morning
lows expected to be in the 40s. Chances of rain return again
early next week as ensembles lean more towards upper level
troughing moving back over the Pacific Northwest. Cooler and
wetter conditions then look to persist heading into midweek.
14
&&
.AVIATION...
A weak front has pushed through western Washington this evening with
light onshore flow in its wake. Primarily VFR conditions so far this
evening. Winds 5-10 kt from the north/northwest. A mix of low
VFR/MVFR is expected Thursday morning ahead of a wet system moving
through late Thursday & Friday with rain. CIGs are expected to lower
to at least 2-4 kft by Thursday afternoon/evening with widespread
rain expected by Thursday evening through Friday.
KSEA...VFR conditions favored through the TAF period (although brief
MVFR ceilings cannot be completely ruled out). Surface winds have
switched northerly and will likely remain to some degree until
Friday afternoon. Wet conditions with lower CIGs are expected late
Thursday through Friday.
41
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will build back over the coastal waters this
evening in the wake of a frontal system that pushed through the
area this afternoon. Onshore flow will continue, with another
push of westerly winds expected along the central and eastern
Strait of Juan de Fuca this afternoon and evening. While a few
gusts to 25 kt will be possible, gusts are largely not expected
to be widespread enough for any small craft advisory issuance.
A more organized frontal system will move across the area waters
Thursday into Friday, bringing an increased likelihood of small
craft strength winds to the coastal waters and of gales to the
Strait. Latest probabilistic guidance highlights the strongest
winds expected to be along the Strait Friday afternoon and
evening, with roughly a 50-80 percent likelihood of gusts
exceeding 34 kt.
Conditions will then ease again over the weekend as high
pressure builds back over the coastal waters. A weak system
looks to approach the area from the NE Pacific on Sunday, but
looks to dissipate before making it into the area waters.
Seas will range between 5-8 ft through Thursday. Seas will then
build between 9-12 ft on Friday in the wake of the system,
before subsiding back towards 4-6 ft over the weekend.
14
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion