Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
414
FXUS66 KSEW 090851
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
151 AM PDT Sat May 9 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak ridge of high pressure will produce partial sunshine and
somewhat warmer temperatures across Western Washington today.
Another weak frontal system will clip the region on Sunday for
additional cloud cover and cooler temperatures. A warming trend
commences Monday and Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds into the
region. A general trend toward more unsettled and cooler
conditions is expected for the second half of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Shortwave ridging will bring a return of some sunshine and
modestly warmer temperatures for most of the region today. But
it will be short-lived as another front clips the region on
Sunday for additional clouds, cooler temperatures, and perhaps a
spotty shower or some drizzle. Upper ridging begins to amplify
over the Pacific Northwest on Monday as an upper low cuts off
several hundred miles offshore of Northern California. Monday
will feature a return of sun by the afternoon, but breezy north
winds in the afternoon should cap high temperatures in the 60s
to near 70.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Tuesday continues to shape up to be the warmest day of the
upcoming week as upper ridging remains in control and the low
level flow turns weakly offshore for a brief period. Per the
usual, the NBM approaches this conservatively with mid/upper 70s
in the warmest spots, but it wouldn`t be surprising for a few
locations to make another run at 80 degrees from around Seattle
southward.
Uncertainty continues to play a significant part in the forecast from
the middle portion of next week onward. While ensembles continue
to struggle with the speed of transition, they do seem to be
latching onto the idea of a flip to more consistent cyclonic
flow with mean troughing taking up residence over the Northeast
Pacific. Given the time of year, it`s nothing terribly exciting,
but it does tip the scale back towards an extended period of
near (or a little below) normal temperatures and periodic
chances of some light precip. 27
&&
.AVIATION...
A brief trough with weak flow aloft will transition into a southwest
zonal flow with winds aloft increasing ahead of another trough off
in the Pacific approaching the coast into Sunday. There remain areas
of stratus with a dry frontal system moving through, and this will
continue into the morning (particularly along the coast and inland
into the Puget Sound/Mountains. MVFR is the most probable ceiling
category but can`t rule out a couple spots of IFR briefly. Models
have the lower areas of stratus transitioning to high clouds around
18-22Z (with the coast taking a little longer to clear compared to
inland terminals). Southwest winds 5 kt or less this morning (with a
couple light and variable spots) will transition to northwest winds
5-10 kt this afternoon becoming light and variable for most tonight.
Stratus probabilities for Sunday remain confined to the coast due to
the likelihood of high stratus overnight.
KSEA...Pocket of stratus down to MVFR drifted into the terminal this
morning from Lake WA. Models have stratus lifting to a high ceiling
by around 18Z late this morning with VFR/high clouds for the
afternoon. Probabilities of low ceilings for Sunday morning is low.
Southwest winds around 5 kt this morning will shift to the northwest
around 18Z, picking up to around 4-8 kt in the afternoon, shifting
to the northeast around 5 kt or less late.
HPR
&&
.MARINE...
A weak frontal system will push through the waters early this
morning. High pressure will rebuild into the offshore waters this
weekend into next week. The main concern in this period is diurnal
pushes through the Strait of Juan de Fuca, where winds at times may
exceed 20 kt. The next likelihood of this occuring is Sunday
afternoon and evening. Otherwise, winds will remain light and
primarily out of the north going into next week. A few ensembles
hint a more organized system midweek next week.
Seas 4-6 ft with a couple areas potentially seeing 7 ft seas next
week at times.
HPR
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the next
rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as
needed.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion