Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
242
FXUS66 KSEW 232215
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
215 PM PST Mon Feb 23 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will continue to spin offshore, maintaining
showers across the region this week. Another frontal system
crosses around Wednesday, bringing additional rounds of heavier
snow in the mountains and rain in the lowlands. Temperatures
cool later in the week through the weekend with drier conditions
setting up for most.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Widespread showers continue across the region this afternoon
with the bulk of the moisture continuing to be aimed across the
southern portions of the area. While this will bring some
additional snowfall to the higher elevations, only minor
additional roadway accumulations are expected at the Cascade
passes given the warmer surface temperatures and decreasing
showers. Heights rise a little into Tuesday which should largely
constrain showers to the mountains. Northwesterly flow develops
into Wednesday which will again introduce some shower chances
through the day. A passing disturbance into Wednesday night,
however, will bring the focus for additional moisture. While
the strongest moisture transport looks to the be the north of
the local area, this will bring the potential for additional
mountain snow. The focus of this looks to be generally from I-90
northward and most likely snowfall amounts are around 6 inches
at the Cascade passes with this system. 12
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ensemble guidance continues to favor a west or northwest flow
pattern across the region late this week. Initially, the focus
will remain in the North Cascades, with US 2 northward through
Mt. Baker likely seeing increasing snowfall amounts into the
weekend. However, showers are expected to continue across most
of the area with snow levels around 3000 ft or so. Looking into
the weekend, heights rise a little bit and likely limit the
potential for showers across much of the area. This will allow
for some clearing and temperatures to trend cooler, with
overnight lows approaching or dropping below freezing for many
locations (especially away from the city centers). 12
&&
.AVIATION...
Showers and stratus linger over much of the region this
afternoon with southwesterly flow aloft continuing. Portions of
Puget Sound could see continued showers this afternoon as more
develop along the coast and move east. Brief reductions in vis and
cigs are possible, though generally VFR outside of precipitation. As
the weather system continues moving east, showers will persist
before drying out more tomorrow. Expect a shift from southerly
surface flow to NNE winds after 02Z. Speeds will be light, picking
up tomorrow morning to around 10 kts after 12Z.
KSEA...VFR with breezy southerly winds at the terminal presently.
Over the next few hours, vicinity showers and/or -RA is possible as
additional bands of rain move onshore and push into Puget Sound. A
shift to NNE winds is still forecast to occur after 02Z and linger
throughout the rest of the TAF period. High pressure will dry things
out into tomorrow, but some lower MVFR stratus cigs (020-025) are
likely to occur tomorrow morning before becoming VFR in the
afternoon. Expect winds to elevate tomorrow morning between 9-11 kts
through 18Z before easing thereafter.
21
&&
.MARINE...
Seas remain around 10 ft and relatively steep with dominant
period around 9 to 10 seconds over the coastal waters this
afternoon. The SCA for the coastal waters has been extended
through this evening as a result. Otherwise, seas continue to
steadily but slowly subside over the next day or two. Meanwhile,
winds Tuesday night through the Strait of Juan de Fuca will
increase, with around a 50% chance of advisory strength winds.
The more significant increase in winds is likely to be
Wednesday night through early Thursday as a disturbance slides
across the area and increases the westerly winds through the
Strait. Local gale gusts are possible (30-40%), but confidence
remains low in the precise timing. Otherwise, expect building
seas late in the week over the coastal waters, with a return to
10-15 ft waves likely (80% chance). 12
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding is expected during the next seven days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion