Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
149
FXUS66 KSEW 081454
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
754 AM PDT Wed Apr 8 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will continue across Western Washington through
Friday, with a gradual warming trend expected over the next few
days. Clear skies and cool overnight temperatures will allow for
frost to form across portions of the region both Wednesday and
Thursday morning. Cooler temperatures and precipitation chances
return this weekend. Unsettled conditions may continue into
early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Temperatures as of 8AM show widespread frost conditions across
much of the area, with areas in the Southwest Interior and the
southern portions of the Olympic Peninsula just below freezing.
Temperatures are on track to warm up quickly as the sun
continues to rise.
A gradual warm up is expected through Friday, with Friday being
the warmest day. High temperatures by Friday are expected to be
in the low 60s along the coast, while along the interior
temperatures are expected to peak in the upper 60s to low 70s.
These temperatures will put portions of Western Washington under
Minor HeatRisk for Thursday and Friday. Overnight temperatures
are also expected to trend slightly warmer through Friday. There
is another chance of frost development Thursday morning, but
confidence is low as temperatures will be slightly warmer in the
mid 30s. Current probabilities of seeing temperatures below 36
degrees are around 25-40%.
29/62
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level low offshore is expected to drop down from the
Gulf of Alaska late on Friday. Models are still struggling to
pinpoint the exact trajectory of the low. Some models have the
center of the low going over Oregon, which would yield a wetter
solution for Western Washington. Other models have the center of
the low passing through northern California; this solution will
still bring precipitation to the area but QPF values will be
slightly lower. When looking at long-term ensemble guidance, it
is favoring the latter solution, with the low passing over
California.
Uncertainty continues into early next week, particularly
Tuesday. Ensemble guidance seems to be in good agreement that an
upper level ridge will build over the Pacific Northwest on
Monday. Ensemble guidance suggests the next system may arrive
on Tuesday, with the majority (68%) of ensemble members favoring
this solution. However, a few members (31%) still have the
upper level ridging over the area, suggesting there is a small
chance that dry conditions may continue into Tuesday.
29
&&
.AVIATION...
Northwesterly flow aloft will continue across Western Washington
through the day with ridging situated offshore. Satellite
imagery shows a few areas of fog across the south Sound and
Chehalis River Valley this morning, which has mainly impacted
KHQM, KOLM, and KPWT. Expect fog to scatter over the next few
hours for a return to VFR conditions by mid-morning. Elsewhere,
expect VFR conditions to prevail through the day with some
FEW/SCT high clouds moving overhead at times. Another round of
fog for the river valleys will be possible by Thursday morning.
Otherwise, light winds this morning will increase to 5-10 kt
from the N/NW this afternoon.
KSEA...VFR conditions through the TAF period. Light N winds mainly
under 6 kts through 16/17Z will increase to 5-10 kts around midday
and persist through the evening before easing again after 06Z.
JD/14
&&
.MARINE...
Benign marine conditions expected to continue into early next
week. Weak high pressure over the waters will keep northerly
winds through Friday. High pressure will weaken late Friday as
a weather system drops down from the Gulf of Alaska and will
clip area waters as it moves southwards into California/Oregon.
Northwesterly winds will increase slightly on Sunday, but at
this time they are expected to remain below small craft
thresholds. Current probabilities of exceeding 21 kt are at 10%
or less. High pressure will rebuild on Monday over the waters
briefly. The next frontal system is likely to move over area
waters on Tuesday, with probabilities of 25-35% of seeing small
craft winds over the coastal waters. Seas are expected to remain
below 10 ft into early next week.
29
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding expected in the next 7 days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for Eastern Strait
of Juan de Fuca-Foothills and Valleys of Central King
County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King
Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern
King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis
Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades-
Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-
Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lowlands of Lewis and
Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom
County-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Olympia and Southern
Puget Sound-Willapa and Black Hills.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion