Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
153
FXUS66 KSEW 292124
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
224 PM PDT Sat Aug 29 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper-low will exit the region tonight as an upper-ridge
replaces it. Ridging looks to remain in place to start the week
before a well-organized system arrives on Wednesday and lead
into Thursday with the potential for widespread rainfall. This
disturbance will remain in the vicinity through the weekend
keeping conditions cool and unsettled.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The upper-low that brought widespread showers and isolated
thunderstorms earlier today has now crossed the Cascades. A few
showers remain over the west slopes of the Cascades but
conditions are beginning to trend drier. An upper-ridge offshore
is slated to build in later tonight as straggling shower
activity wanes. Lingering surface moisture from recent
precipitation will likely lead to areas of low clouds and fog
developing into early Sunday morning. Overnight lows tonight
will bottom into the mid 40s to mid 50s.
Sunday and Monday are panning out to be really nice days. Areas
of fog and low clouds will start off for both (more so on
Sunday) but gradual clearing should eventually give way to some
sunshine. High clouds are favored to pass overhead at times but
nonetheless conditions are to remain dry via large-scale
subsidence with upper-ridging in place. Highs to start the week
will rise into the 60s and 70s but areas in the southwest
interior could top out near 80 F on Monday. Overnight lows
mainly in the 50s but a few spots could settle into the 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Guidance has an upper trough and its associated low digging
further offshore now than previous runs. As a result, subtle
ridging upstream of it may keep conditions relatively drier on
Tuesday than previously thought. Though, shower chances remain
but more widespread precipitation is favored on Wednesday and
Thursday as a well-organized disturbance remains on track to
enter the region. Too early to tell estimates are bringing
between 1.00-3.00" of rain for the coast and Olympics in a 30
hour period ending early Thursday morning with more QPF expected
to fall throughout the remainder of the day. Interior locations
are so far ranging between 0.50-1.00". The upper-trough will
maintain over the region through Saturday as it`s sandwiched
between two areas of upper-ridging. Cool and unsettled
conditions trending into the weekend as temperatures measure
well-below normal.
&&
.AVIATION...
An upper level low will track to the east of the area tonight,
keeping northwesterly winds aloft. A scattered cloud deck with VFR
ceilings remains over much of western Washington, with showers
confined mostly to the mountains this afternoon. Clouds look to
remain scattered through this evening before they begin to fill in
once again overnight. The areas most likely to see lower ceilings
are along the coast and from Everett northwards (40-60% chc), while
around Seattle and southwards probabilities are less certain
(35- 40%). Most terminals will likely see at least some MVFR
cigs by sunrise on Sunday. Terminals such as PAE and PWT may see
some brief periods of fog tomorrow morning as well. Clouds look
to scatter form south to north Sunday afternoon, but mid and
upper level clouds may impede scattering, especially across the
northwestern most portions of the area.
Winds generally remain south-southwesterly tonight and into Sunday.
Areas around PAE and the north-central Puget Sound may briefly turn
northerly this weekend. A full shift to N in the Sound is more
probable Sunday evening.
KSEA...
VFR conditions will continue through this evening. Areas of
low clouds and potentially fog look to develop Sunday morning, but
will lean on more of an MVFR stratus threat for SEA. A lower
confidence forecast. Clouds look to lift and scatter by Sunday
afternoon. Winds look to remain southwesterly 4-8 kt, and may begin
to turn northerly approaching 00Z Mon. 62
&&
.MARINE...
Another westerly push down the Strait of Juan de Fuca this evening
will likely create Small Craft Advisory winds this evening.
Afterwards, weak frontal systems passing by to the north tomorrow
into Monday and early Tuesday will keep high pressure well offshore,
allowing winds to remain mostly light across the area waters. A
stronger low pressure system looks to move in from the north Tuesday
night into the middle of next week, which will bring the first fall-
like system with increased southerly winds across all the area
waters. There is a 60-70% chance of gusts reaching up to gale force
through the east entrance to the Strait of Juan de Fuca and the
inner coastal waters on Wednesday.
Seas remain around 3-6 ft until Wednesday, rising up to around 8-11
ft then as the system moves through. 62
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
A cooler and more moist airmass will remain in place
for the majority of the week. A stronger system arriving Tuesday
night into Wednesday will bring with it abundant rainfall to the
coast and Cascades. One to three inches of rain are forecast in the
Olympics, and between 0.75"-1.00" of rain is expected in the lowland
and Cascades. This will ease fire weather concerns for the near
future as fuels respond to wetter conditions.
21
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PDT Sunday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion