Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
206
FXUS66 KSEW 251617
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
917 AM PDT Mon May 25 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
The first showers of the frontal system have arrived along the
coast and will continue to spread inland throughout the day.
Expect rain, breezy winds, heightened marine activity and a
slight chance of a thunderstorm today. Showery and unstable
conditions linger into Tuesday before high pressure returns
later in the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No significant changes made to the forecast this morning as the
forecast remains on track. The previous discussion can be found
below along with updates to the aviation section:
A rainy Memorial Day is in store for today, as well as breezy
winds and a slight chance for thunderstorms. As for forecast
changes, areas from Island County north will be a little bit
more shadowed, receiving a few hundredths of an inch of rain.
Areas from Seattle south will receive up to a quarter of an
inch. Locally higher amounts are possible in any thunderstorms
that develop. Favored locations for thunderstorms, though still
a slight chance (10-15%) include the Olympic Peninsula down
through the Chehalis Valley. Winds will be strongest along the
coast with gusts of 35 to 40 mph, with breezy conditions through
the north interior as well. Temperatures will be much cooler
today, struggling to get much above the upper 50s to low 60s.
Conditions will remain showery and unstable on Tuesday as the
low pressure system continues to move through the Northwest. The
areas favoring thunderstorms have been trimmed back to include
areas from Chehalis south into far southwestern Washington.
Isolated chances for thunderstorms cannot be ruled out on
Wednesday for all of western Washington.
Unseasonably large waves will arrive at the coast late today,
peaking on Tuesday between 14-16 feet with long periods bringing
high surf conditions to the Pacific coast. Waves will decrease
throughout the day on Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
By midweek, the region is in split flow transitioning to gentle
ridging into mid-week. Temperatures begin to warm again from
Wednesday onward, getting back into the 70s by Thursday.
Guidance is suggestive of another period of troughing over the
northwest late in the week with showers lingering in the
forecast. As of now, it looks to only be enough to produce
mountain showers and thunderstorms into the weekend.
21
&&
.AVIATION...
Increasing southwesterly flow aloft today as an upper level low
drops southward into the region. A frontal system is moving
onshore this morning, resulting in MVFR/IFR cigs along the
coast in rain. Rain will continue to push inland this morning,
likely making it into the interior sites between 17-19Z. Cigs
are expected to lower into MVFR or low-end VFR this afternoon
for Puget Sound terminals. Cigs will then continue to fluctuate
between VFR/MVFR heading into this evening for most sites, with
MVFR ceilings expected to persist along the coast. There remains
a low probability (less than 10%) for a thunderstorm along the
Olympic Peninsula this afternoon into the evening. In addition,
visibilities may briefly drop to 3-5 SM during steadier rain at
the terminals, particularly along the coast. Southerly winds
will continue to pick up this morning and will peak late this
morning into the early afternoon as the front passes through.
Gusts will range between 20-30 kts for terminals along the
coast and from Everett northwards, with wind gusts 20-25 kt
expected elsewhere.
KSEA...VFR cigs continue for the terminal early this morning.
Rain is expected to move into the terminal between 17-19z as a
frontal system moves across the area. Cigs will slowly lower
towards low-end VFR by early afternoon, though could briefly dip
to MVFR in any heavier shower activity. The probability for MVFR
cigs remains highest (around 30-35%) this afternoon, mainly between
21-01Z. Otherwise, predominantly VFR cigs are expected into tonight,
with a lowering towards MVFR expected into Tuesday morning. South-
southwest winds will increase around 18Z with gusts ranging 20-25
kt through 00Z. Southerly winds will continue, but ease tonight
into the overnight period.
JD/14
&&
.MARINE...
A low pressure system will move across the waters today as a
cold front moves through the area. Southerly winds continue to
increase early this morning. South winds will peak for the Coastal
Waters through mid-morning, with winds peaking for the interior
waters during the day. Widespread Small Craft Advisory winds
for most waters with the cold front, with gale force gusts over
the northern Coastal Waters. Brief gale force wind gusts may
also be observed over the eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca and
northern inland waters, with localized gusts around 35 kts.
Otherwise, SCA wind gusts peaking around 25 kts for Puget Sound
this afternoon.
Winds will then slowly subside tonight into early Tuesday. High
pressure then quickly rebuilds on Tuesday with winds transitioning
more north to northwesterly Tuesday afternoon. SCA northwest wind
gusts are then expected at times from Tuesday through much of the
week for the outer Coastal Waters. Onshore flow will also increase
Thursday through late week, with increasing west winds through the
Strait of Juan de Fuca each evening. SCA winds are expected late
Thursday and again late Friday for the Strait, with potentially gale
force winds during this period as well.
Seas of 7 to 10 feet this morning will build further to 12 to 17
feet late today into Tuesday. Seas will slowly decrease on Tuesday,
dropping to around 10 feet by Wednesday. Steep seas will also return
late Tuesday into Wednesday for the outer Coastal Waters with
increasing northwest winds and a period decreasing to around 10
seconds. A long period swell of 7 to 10 feet with a period of 15
seconds will also arrive on Thursday. This will result in the
significant wave height rising above 10 feet, before seas slowly
ease on Friday. JD
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the
next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as
needed.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to noon PDT
Tuesday for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington
Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Grays Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday for West Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for
Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan
De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.
Gale Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday for Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out
10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion