Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
981
FXUS66 KSEW 251625
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
925 AM PDT Sun Oct 25 2026
.SYNOPSIS...A frontal system will continue to bring widespread
precipitation and breezy conditions to Western Washington today.
Unsettled conditions are favored into next week. Light showers
will linger early next week. Another system will arrive midweek,
bringing widespread rain, mountain snow, and cooler
temperatures to the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...Steadier precipitation
continues to move from Puget Sound east into the Cascades with
scattered showers along the coast and offshore. Rainfall amounts
over the last 24 hours have ranged from 0.50-1.50" along the
majority of the Olympic Peninsula, and 0.20-0.50" for Puget
Sound, with lower amounts into the Cascades. Showers at times
will continue through today with a system lingering offshore.
Southeast winds remain a bit breezy at times along the coast,
San Juan Islands, and Admiralty Inlet into the afternoon with
gusts up to 25 to 35 MPH. High temperatures in the low to mid
50s today.
Models have come to a better agreement on the projected path of the
low. The center of the low will remain offshore today and move
inland Monday morning near the Oregon/Washington border. This will
result in light showers lingering into Monday. A weak shortwave
will slide down from British Columbia on Tuesday for another
chance of light precipitation.
JD/29
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...There is good
agreement among models that a low pressure system will slide
down from the British Columbia coast late Tuesday towards
Western Washington, bringing another round of widespread
precipitation through at least Thursday. Additionally, a colder
air mass will accompany this system. Latest guidance suggests
high temperatures will only peak into the upper 40s to low 50s
and overnight temperatures will dip into the 30s, with upper 20s
possible in the valleys by Thursday. Snow levels will also
decrease below 3500 ft with this system, bringing light snow
accumulations to the passes. Latest guidance suggests the passes
may receive around 4 inches of snow, while the higher mountain
peaks may see around 7 inches. Models start to struggle Saturday
on the upper-level pattern. Some members have a weak ridge
building behind the low pressure system, however the majority of
members at this time favor an upper-level trough to remain over
Western Washington.
29
&&
.AVIATION...Southwest flow aloft will become southerly later
today then southeasterly overnight as an upper low offshore
moves onshore over northwest Oregon. Ceilings are a mixed bag
across the region this morning as bands of precipitation
associated with the system continue to move across the region.
MVFR ceilings will be mostly confined to the coastal areas with
primarily VFR for interior terminals. Ceilings may briefly drop
to MVFR thresholds for interior in any heavier precipitation.
KSEA...Mainly lower end VFR expected today with periods of rain
moving through the terminal into this afternoon. Precipitation
should begin to taper by this evening. Surface winds NW 4 to 8
kt will shift to the NE through the morning hours.
27/14
&&
.MARINE...A gradually weakening surface low will shift
southward over the offshore waters today before moving onshore
over the northern Oregon coast on Monday morning. Small craft
advisories remain in effect for a combination of wind and seas
over the coastal waters into this evening. Small craft
advisories also remain in effect for easterlies in the strait.
Winds and seas will be ease and subside tonight as the low
offshore further weakens and moves ashore over Oregon. Another
front will reach the waters on Wednesday, likely bringing the
next round of more widespread headlines to the area waters.
Seas between 9-12 ft today will gradually subside towards 4 to
6 ft on Monday.
27/14
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Grays
Harbor Bar-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out
10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for East Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion