Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
117
FXUS66 KSEW 222146
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
246 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Generally dry and mild conditions are expected through the end
of the week, with light precipitation possible over the weekend
as low pressure moves south from the British Columbia coast.
Weak ridging and drier conditions are forecast through the last
week of the month, but a return to a more active weather regime
is possible as of the first week of November.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The dissipating front has left mostly cloudy skies across
western Washington this afternoon, with highs in the mid 50s and
low 60s. Skies will be clearer on Friday and with slightly
cooler temperatures. A low pressure system will be moving into
Washington waters Saturday for a chance of showers throughout
the day. Morning lows on Saturday will be in the upper 30s to
low 40s. Mountain valley locations could be in the low 30s for
possible frost and freezes. More of the precipitation will be
focused along the Olympic Peninsula with amounts of only a few
hundredths of an inch inland through Puget Sound.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some shower activity will linger into Sunday but will remain
mostly cloudy. Only a few hundredths of an inch are in the
forecast for Sunday but generally conditions look to become
drier trending into Sunday afternoon. Some of the ensemble
guidance takes the aforementioned low pressure system inland
into Oregon early in the week, which would keep conditions on
the cooler and cloudier side, other solutions bring in weak high
pressure. The majority of the week will be dry. However, there
are extended range solutions indicating that the end of the
month and into the first week of November may signal a switch to
a more active pattern. The probabilistic week two hazards have
portions of the CWA highlighted for slight risks of heavy rain,
possible mountain snow and some breezier conditions for the
immediate coast. Stay tuned to the forecast as details evolve.
21
&&
.AVIATION...
Generally VFR this afternoon with pockets of MVFR ceilings affecting
terminals near the Canada border. Low end VFR clouds are expected to
continue to fill in across western Washington this evening,
continuing to lower to MVFR/IFR overnight. Calm conditions overnight
will result in another round of MVFR to IFR/localized LIFR
conditions as low stratus and fog expand over the region early
Friday morning, particularly south of the Puget Sound and over the
Kitsap Peninsula. Flight conditions are expected to improve to VFR
across western Washington Friday afternoon under clear skies.
Surface winds this afternoon generally northerly around 5-12 kt will
ease this evening and shift southeasterly early Friday morning,
switching back to northerly Friday afternoon.
KSEA...VFR with occasionally breezy NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts to
20 kt. Winds will ease later this evening, gradually veering
easterly to southerly to westerly overnight, and back to northerly
flow Friday afternoon. Confidence is increasing over MVFR ceilings
developing over the terminal overnight, with a 35-40% chance of cigs
below 3000 feet and a 30% chance of cigs below 2000 feet between 12z-
18z Friday morning. VFR conditions expected to return by the
afternoon under clear skies.
15
&&
.MARINE...
Northwesterly winds will continue to pick up through the evening and
into early Friday in the wake of a weak frontal system. Along with
winds, seas will build to 9 to 14 feet over the inner coastal
waters, and up to 11 to 17 feet across the outer coastal waters
through Friday morning. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains
across the coastal waters through Friday. While seas will gradually
ease along the coast Friday afternoon, seas will come down a little
slower further from shore, and the Small Craft goes through Friday
afternoon across the outer coastal waters.
In addition, winds this evening will pick up in the Strait of
Georgia west of Whatcom County, and while winds are expected to
remain below SCA, will keep an eye on how things evolve this
evening. Seas at Grays Harbor Bar will also continue to build into
the evening, and while they are expected to stay just under 10 feet,
rough seas are not out of the realm of possibility and that will be
watched as well.
Winds and seas will ease and subside by late Friday, with a more
benign pattern settling in over area waters into Saturday. By
Sunday, a low pressure system will move southward over the region,
though some uncertainty remains over the storm track. While winds
are expected to remain low, seas may build over the outer coastal
waters to around 10 feet Sunday morning with this incoming system,
then ease into next week where they will remain around 4 to 5 feet.
15
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
Out 10 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
To 60 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion