Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
900
FXUS66 KSEW 021537
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
837 AM PDT Thu Jul 2 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak front moving into the northern portion of the area today
will dissipate tonight. Weak upper level trough over Western
Washington Friday will dissipate Friday night. Slow warming
trend over the weekend into next week with large upper level
ridge over the Southwest and Southern Rockies building to the
northwest. Dry weather beginning Saturday continuing into the
middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Satellite imagery shows front moving down from the northwest
about half way through Vancouver Island. Mostly cloudy skies
over the southern portion of the area with mostly clear skies
over the northern portion. High clouds ahead of the front just
west of the Puget Sound at 3 am/10z. Temperatures were in the
upper 40s to upper 50s.
Front will continue to move southeast today approaching the
north coast late in the afternoon. Rain out ahead of the front
spreading over the north coast/Western Strait of Juan de Fuca in
the afternoon. Increasing middle level clouds over the
remainder of the area with a slight chance of rain over the
northern portions late in the afternoon. Under cloudy skies highs
in the upper 50s to mid 60s.
Front dissipating over the Northwest Interior tonight. Rain
along the north coast and Northwest Interior coming to an end by
midnight. For the remainder of the area a chance of rain from
about I-90 northward until about midnight. Temperatures will
only drop into the 50s with cloudy skies.
Weak upper level trough over the area Friday dissipating Friday
night as an upper level ridge centered well southeast of Western
Washington begins building to the northwest. Could see a shower
or two in the North Cascades Friday otherwise mostly cloudy
skies with highs in the mid 60s to mid 70s. Lows Friday night in
the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Pretty normal first week of July day Saturday with zonal flow
aloft and light low level onshore flow. Morning stratus will
give way to mostly sunny skies in the afternoon. Highs in the
upper 60s to mid 70s over the interior and mid 60s along the
coast. Felton
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Little change in the extended forecast this morning with zonal
flow aloft through Sunday night becoming southwesterly Monday
through Wednesday. Dissipating front moving through Tuesday
night into Wednesday just increasing the cloud cover. 500 mb
heights in the mid 570 dms to near 580 dms Sunday night into
Tuesday lowering a touch with the dissipating front Wednesday.
Low level onshore flow through the period will keep high
temperatures in check. For the interior highs mostly in the 70s
except mid 70s to lower 80s Monday. For the coast onshore flow
will keep highs in the 60s. Lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Minor HeatRisk through the period for the interior with a
15-25% chance of moderate HeatRisk over the Central Puget Sound
Monday through Wednesday.
&&
.AVIATION...
Low MVFR stratus remains plentiful across interior terminals
this morning, with a few pockets of IFR. A weak frontal system
will move across the terminals later today, with
showers/vicinity showers at times through tonight. Ceilings will
likely lift up to VFR for most later into the afternoon (as late
as 21-22Z) as moisture begins spreading inland, although the
coast will likely hold on to the low clouds through Friday
(especially once showers wrap up, probabilities for IFR/LIFR
increase into tonight/Friday). MVFR is likely elsewhere Friday
morning with a 30% chance of the interior seeing IFR. Variable
winds to light SW flow this morning increase to 6-12 kt in the
afternoon. Terminals in the Kitsap Peninsula and central Puget
Sound may see some breezy winds this evening with occasional
gusts to 15-18 kt.
KSEA...MVFR cigs this morning with stratus having filled in earlier
than anticipated. The lower ceilings are likely to linger
through 21-22Z as the front arrives with some form of rain
shadowing from the Olympics, or a few vicinity showers. There
is moderate to high confidence (50-70%) for MVFR cigs to return
after 09z Friday, with a slight chance (30%) of IFR cigs. SW
winds will increase this afternoon to 5-10 kt. May see some
breezy winds this evening with gusts up to 15 kt.
29/HPR
&&
.MARINE...
Broad high pressure offshore and low pressure inland will continue
for the majority of the week, maintaining onshore flow. However,
today a frontal system moving area waters will slightly weaken
onshore flow. High pressure will start rebuilding over the coastal
waters on Friday and remain through early next week. This will
result in periods of diurnally driven westerly pushes through the
Strait of Juan de Fuca. The next westerly push that has potential
for reaching small craft thresholds is Friday evening, with current
probabilities around 45-65%. Saturday`s push looks to be even
stronger, with higher confidence (70-90%) of winds meeting small
craft thresholds.
Combined seas expected to remain below 10 ft for the majority of the
week. Seas 3 to 5 feet through Saturday evening will then build to 6
to 10 ft by Sunday evening. Seas subside below 10 ft early Monday
morning.
29
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Little in the way of fire weather concerns in the week ahead.
Weak front combined with upper level troughing maintaining cool
and cloudy conditions with high relative humidity values today
and tonight. Drier, sunnier, and more seasonable temperatures
beginning Friday continuing into the middle of next week. Highs
temperatures peaking Monday in the mid 70s to lower 80s over the
interior. Low level onshore flow continuing through the middle
of next week will moderate daytime minimum RH values and bring
good RH recovery each night. Felton
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion