Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
000
FXUS66 KSEW 162152
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
300 PM PDT Sun Jun 16 2019
.SYNOPSIS...Mostly clear skies will give way to overnight and
morning clouds before returning for Monday. Tuesday will see more
clouds and perhaps a few showers or some morning drizzle. An upper
trough will reach the area after the middle of the week for a chance
of showers at times.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...Some high clouds over the
western half of the CWA while low clouds can still be found over
some locations along the coast. Temperatures are a little shy of
what was expected...but time still remains for them to catch up to
the forecast.
Models remain consistent for the near term. An upper level ridge
moves through the area today keeping conditions dry and warm. A very
minor shortwave hot on its heels may bring a slight chance of
showers to the far northern Cascades late this afternoon into
tonight but this feature moves out pretty quickly to be of much...if
any...significance. Weaker ridging resumes Monday with very little
change in conditions. Tuesday sees a switch as the area starts to
feel the presence of an upper level low approaching the area from
northern BC. While conditions will remain dry...temperatures will
fall to the lower 70s over the interior lowlands...lower 60s along
the coast. All that said...very few changes made to inherited
forecast. SMR
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Models are coming more in
line with regards to approaching upper level low as it dips
southward from northern BC Wednesday. Both models suggest that there
may be some precip for northern portions of the CWA Wednesday...but
as the upper low dives east of the CWA Thursday will likely see best
chance for widespread precip then. PoPs with this feature still less
than impressive...topping out in low-end chance category. This
feature does not linger and dry conditions are expected to resume
Friday. A second upper level low looks to arrive Saturday bringing
another chance...albeit small...for showers. This switch to a more
active pattern will bring temps over the area down some...with
interior lowland temps dropping into the upper 60s to lower 70s
while locations on the coast will hover around 60. SMR
&&
.AVIATION...Upper ridge axis shifting east this afternoon with a
weak trough moving by to the north tonight. Another upper level
ridge will build offshore late tonight into Monday. Westerly flow
aloft becoming northwesterly overnight. Increasing low level onshore
flow will send stratus surging inland quicker tonight. That will
lead to widespread IFR or low MVFR ceilings across the area
from late tonight through at least midday Monday.
KSEA...VFR through late tonight. Stratus returns tonight
between 09Z and 12Z and is likely to be slightly higher and thicker
than what occurred this morning. Burnoff may not occur until 21Z or
later on Monday. Surface winds W-SW 5 to 10 knots this afternoon and
evening...becoming light southwesterly by daybreak Monday. 27
&&
.MARINE...High pressure over the coastal waters with lower
pressure inland will result in varying degrees of onshore flow
through the week. Gale force westerlies are likely in the central
and eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca in the evening through early
morning hours through Tuesday night. Small craft advisory winds in
the adjacent waters, Admiralty Inlet and Northern Inland waters
during the same time. Weak troughing over the coastal waters
should lead to weaker onshore late in the week. 27
&&
.HYDROLOGY...The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the
start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated as needed
until then.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Gale Watch from Monday afternoon through late Monday night for
Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Monday for Central U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for Admiralty Inlet-
Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
&&
$$
www.weather.gov/seattle
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion