Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
500
FXUS66 KSEW 040941
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
241 AM PDT Sun Oct 4 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure overhead and a thermal trough shifting inland
today will provide one more day of mild temperatures. A system
to the north will flatten the ridge to start off next week, with
near-zonal flow aloft and onshore flow at the surface
maintaining seasonable conditions with morning clouds and
afternoon sun breaks throughout the week. Chances for rain
increase by next Friday, though confidence remains low.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Despite high pressure overhead forcing light offshore flow,
lower levels have not quite dried out enough to prevent another
round of low stratus expanding across the lowlands this
morning. Although slightly drier, low clouds may potentially
linger into the early afternoon once again today. While
temperatures today will once again depend on the timing of the
eroding stratus, a thermal trough shifting inland will aid in
warmer temperatures. Highs across the lowlands are favored to
reach the low to mid 70s, with some areas along the Cascade
foothills and valleys reaching the upper 70s to even lower 80s.
This brief warm-up will be short-lived, however, as the upper
level ridge flattens tonight as a weather system moves inland
over British Columbia. This will bring a return to onshore flow
as near-zonal flow develops aloft, bringing more seasonable
temperatures alongside morning low clouds and afternoon sun
breaks. There will be little change day to day between Monday
and Tuesday, with dry conditions, highs generally in the mid
60s to lower 70s, and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Much of next week will bring more of the same as zonal flow
aloft and onshore flow at the surface maintain near- normal
temperatures and morning clouds. There will be little change day
to day through Thursday, with highs once again in the mid 60s
to lower 70s and lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Forecast models have come into slightly better agreement over
cooler and wetter conditions on Friday as a trough passes over
the Pacific Northwest. However, models continue to hint that the
incoming frontal system and associated precipitation may break
apart as the system moves into western Washington, which would
by no means bring a wash out. Chances for rain increase Friday
afternoon into Saturday, though the intensity and coverage of
the potential incoming rainfall remain uncertain at this time.
15
&&
.AVIATION...
An upper-ridge and light offshore flow remains across the region
today. West to west-southwest flow aloft with easterly flow in the
lower levels. Patchy fog and low clouds are currently developing
across the area so far this morning. This activity will become
widespread cross the interior and portions of the coast with
IFR/LIFR cigs and vis. VFR conditions are slated to return by 19-
21z. An additional round of low clouds/fog is in store overnight
Sunday into Monday morning as low-level flow turns onshore.
KSEA...VFR as of 0930z but fog/low clouds will spread across the
terminal by 12-14z with IFR/LIFR conditions and remain in place
throughout the morning. VFR skies are to return by 19-21z and last
for the remainder of the day. An additional round of low clouds/fog
is in store overnight Sunday night into Monday morning as low-level
flow turns onshore. Northerly winds 4-8 kt turning more southerly
Monday morning.
41
&&
.MARINE...
One final round of offshore flow today as a thermal trough
forms along the coast. Winds will turn onshore again Sunday
night into Monday as low pressure shifts inland and surface high
pressure builds offshore. Onshore winds will be strongest
through the Strait of Juan de Fuca as a SCA remains in effect
for the central/eastern zones. The NBM has a 50-80% chance of
SCA gusts being met while the REFS is a bit more bullish with
70-90% chance, increasing forecaster confidence. Westerly pushes
are favored throughout the upcoming week of varying strength. A
more organized system appears favorable towards the week`s end.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT
Monday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion