Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
414
FXUS66 KSEW 090318
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
818 PM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Warm, sunny conditions this afternoon. A frontal system will
traverse the area tonight into Saturday, bringing chances for
rain early and gusty winds. Cooler temperatures are in store for
the weekend with localized frost potential. The next system
looks to arrive Tuesday for the next round of rain chances and
breezy winds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...The current
forecast remains on track with no planned updates. 33
Previous discussion...A few patchy low clouds are lingering
across portions of the waters across the area, as well as the
immediate coastline and portions of the south Puget Sound, but
these clouds will continue to diminish this afternoon for mostly
sunny skies. Temperatures will vary depending on the time of
clearing, with temperatures varying from the low 60s along the
coast to low 70s in places with the most clearing. Seattle will
likely reach the upper 60s.
Clouds will increase this evening as a frontal system traverses
the area overnight into early Monday. A fairly-quick hitting
band of rain will traverse the area in associated with the
front. Behind the front, most of the remaining chances for rain
in the mountains and in a convergence zone over the central
Puget Sound for much of the day on Friday. Rainfall amounts will
be light with most areas seeing less than a quarter to a half
inch of rain. Some places in the south Sound could remain mostly
dry and shadowed.
In addition to rain, winds will increase early tomorrow morning,
peaking in the late morning/early afternoon timeframe. Winds
will begin as southwesterly before becoming more westerly behind
the frontal passage. Convergent flow is expected through the
afternoon as winds turn north from the east entrance to the
Strait south towards Seattle. Peak gusts for the majority of the
area look to remain in the 20-30 mph range, though areas along
the Strait and near Whidbey Island/Port Townsend, as well as
Point Roberts have around a 50-70% chance to see gusts greater
than 45 mph. Winds will slowly ease Friday evening and
overnight.
Lingering chances for light showers continue into Saturday as a
weak wave moves through the area. Shower chances diminish
Saturday night.
Highs will be much cooler on Friday, in the upper 50s on the
coast with low to mid 60s in the interior. Lows remain in the
low 50s. Even cooler air will filter in on Saturday, with highs
in the mid 50s to near 60s, with lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s.
Will have to monitor for the amount of clearing and fog
potential to see how low temperatures can get, as the more
sheltered locations are beginning to near frost thresholds,
through the more likely evening will be Sunday night/Monday
morning.
62
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Ensembles continue to
highlight drier but cooler conditions through the first half of
the week. With the cooler temperatures, the lows on Sunday
morning will generally range anywhere from the upper 30s into
the lower 40s. Colder air in the Cascade valleys may drop the
lows down to around freezing, with latest probabilities showing
a 30% chance of temperatures 32 degrees or less on Sunday
morning in those aforementioned areas. This will be the first in
the season for any freeze or frost concerns, especially for
those who have sensitive vegetation. Heading into the first half
of the week, the lows will get warmer, generally in the 40s,
while the afternoon highs will stay in the upper 50s to low 60s.
Troughing looks to continue over the Pacific Northwest through
the work week, with a chance of a system entering the area
Tuesday into Wednesday for more unsettled conditions.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.AVIATION...Westerly flow tonight as an upper level trough
continues to drop down into the area. A frontal system will
move through the area tonight into Friday morning, lowering
ceilings across much of the area to MVFR/IFR. Light rain will
start along the coast 10z-12z, with showers generally affecting
terminals 12z-17z. Will likely see lowered conditions through
the early part of the morning through the interior before
ceilings lift to VFR late afternoon.
N/NW winds this evening 4 to 8 knots, turning southerly
overnight. Winds will increase Friday morning, 8 to 12 knots,
with periodic gusts up to 20 kts.
KSEA...VFR conditions continuing this evening. Showers will
enter the area early Friday morning, lowering ceilings down to
MVFR generally around 09z-15z. N winds 5-10 kt this evening
will turn southerly overnight, increasing to 8 to 12 knots
through the morning with gusts briefly up to 20 to 25 knots at
times. A wind switch is possible 18-21z as the convergence zone
sags south into King County. Winds flip back to southerly
00-06z Sat. 33/Mazurkiewicz
&&
.MARINE...A frontal system will traverse the area waters
tonight into early Friday. Ahead of the system, a brief increase
in onshore flow through the central/eastern Strait of Juan de
Fuca will allow for winds to reach Small Craft thresholds. As
the system moves through, winds begin to increase area-wide
early Friday morning. Gales will be most likely through the
northern portions of the coastal waters, as well as through the
central/eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca where gusts could reach
up to 40 kt. Elsewhere through the Strait of Juan de Fuca and
coastal waters, as well as through the Strait of Georgia and
Admiralty Inlet, Small Craft level winds are more likely. Winds
peak Friday afternoon before slowly easing Friday night.
Headlines for the interior waters should be able to drop by late
Friday night, but winds look to persist into Saturday morning
through the coastal waters.
North/northwesterly winds persist into Saturday as a weak low
moves through the area. High pressure will attempt to nose into
the area Monday before another low pressure system looks to
traverse the area on Tuesday for another round of stronger winds
and increased seas.
Seas 6 to 7 ft will increase to around 12-14 ft, potentially
locally up to 15-16 ft over the northernmost coastal waters
during the day Friday. Seas remain around 12-14 through early
Saturday morning before easing through the rest of the day. Seas
then become around 5-7 ft Sunday before rising once again as the
next system arrives on Tuesday.
62
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM to 11 PM PDT Friday for Grays
Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 8 PM PDT Friday for West
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning from 3 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape
Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters
From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-
East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM PDT Friday for Northern
Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 8 PM PDT Friday for
Admiralty Inlet.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday for Coastal
Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60
Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion