Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
926
FXUS66 KSEW 101726
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1026 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026
.UPDATE...
No changes made to the inherited forecast. The previous
discussion remains below along with an updated marine/aviation
section:
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will bring increasing clouds and cooler temperatures
to Western Washington into Saturday along with chances for some
rain. Upper ridging will build back into the Pacific Northwest
for warmer, dry conditions Sunday through Tuesday. Onshore flow
increases again during the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Clouds are increasing across the area early this morning ahead
of a frontal system that will slide onshore across Western
Washington late this afternoon. Initial precip chances are
fairly meager outside of a few showers near the coast and in the
North Cascades. Onshore flow is slated to increase further on
Saturday ahead of an upper trough and meso models are starting
to latch onto the idea of some convergence developing Saturday
morning. So, areas north of the King County line might wake up
to some damp ground on Saturday morning. Apart from that,
Saturday will feature mostly cloudy skies with temperatures
struggling to get north of 70 degrees across much of the
interior. Heights begin to rise on Sunday as upper troughing
lifts northward back in British Columbia. This will allow some
sunshine to return to most areas by Sunday afternoon with
temperatures nudging upwards closer to normal for the time of
year.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A warming trend continues into Monday and Tuesday as a very
strong ridge centered over the Northern Great Plains exerts a
little more influence over the area. Light onshore flow
continues during the period, but 500 millibar heights at or
above 580 decameters will be sufficient to boost temperatures
from Seattle metro southward back into the lower to mid 80s with
low end chances for moderate HeatRisk.
The forecast picture turns a little more uncertain toward the
middle and end of next week...at least, from a temperature
perspective. Confidence is high in continued dry conditions.
Generally speaking, ensembles are now trending toward a
declining influence in anomalous upper troughing to our west
and/or northwest as strong ridging becomes firmly established
over the Intermountain West. As we approach mid-July, this is
typically the case in most years. So, what does this mean for
Western Washington? It means that we`re quite likely looking at
the return of an extended period of above average temperatures
at the end of (and just beyond) the current 7 day forecast.
27
&&
.AVIATION...
Areas of stratus has lead to a degradation of ceilings across the
area, mainly along the coast and the peninsula. This layer looks to
stick around through the morning hours before improving to VFR
around 20z-22z, though expect mid to high level clouds to continue
into Saturday. Stratus may stick around longer along the coast and
may not fully dissipate at KHQM, though cigs could fluctuate between
MVFR and low-end VFR after 21z Fri. Expect mainly west to southwest
winds 4 to 8 kts.
KSEA...VFR conditions observed and are expected today, though mid to
high level BKN/OVC layer may continue at times into Saturday.
Southerly winds around 5 kt or less this morning, increasing out of
the NW 5-10 kt after 00z.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the waters will weaken today as a weak
surface low shifts southward toward to just west of north Vancouver
Island on Saturday morning. An associated weak frontal system will
cross the waters Friday afternoon into Friday night with little to
no impact.
High pressure will rebuild Sunday into Monday and remain in place
into midweek. Diurnally driven increases in westerlies can be
expected in the Strait of Juan de Fuca each the next several days. 27
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The current onshore pattern will continue through the weekend
which will lead to continued excellent nightly RH recoveries.
Light drizzle or rain chances exist Friday into Saturday, mainly
for the Olympics and Cascades. Rainfall amounts during this
period would generally total less than 0.10".
A ridge of high pressure rebuilds into the region Monday and
Tuesday. While the onshore pattern will largely remain in place,
warmer daytime temperatures and clear skies will likely lead to
RH values dipping into the 20-40% percent range, with the
lowest values in the south interior and Cascades Valleys. This
will allow fine fuels to continue to dry with elevated fire
weather conditions. Some modest cooling is slated to arrive by
the middle of next week, but may well be short-lived.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
Saturday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion