Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
706
FXUS66 KSEW 290248
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
748 PM PDT Wed Oct 28 2026
.SYNOPSIS...An upper low will continue to linger over Western
Washington through Friday for periodic showers in the lowlands,
light snow shows in the mountains, and cooler temperatures.
Conditions will trend drier over the weekend with temperatures
remaining cool, especially overnight.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...Little change in
the pattern overnight and the current forecast remains on track.
33
Previous discussion...An upper level low continues to hover
offshore maintaining showers around western Washington this
afternoon. Cooler temperatures in the low 50s within the post
frontal airmass. Additionally, there is chance (15-20%) of a
thunderstorm or two late this afternoon due to the unstable
environment. Thunderstorm chances greatly decrease early evening
as the sun sets. Snow showers continue in the Cascades but has
greatly decreased in coverage since this morning, and will
continue as the Winter Weather Advisory remains out until 5PM.
Most of the accumulations will be in and around Mount Rainier.
The aforementioned upper level low will not move much into
Thursday and Friday, keeping scattered showers around in the
lowlands and light snow accumulations in the Cascades. Overall
precipitation will trend downwards, but can`t rule out stray
showers at times with most of the area remaining somewhat dry.
Afternoon temps in the low to mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Ensembles are
agreeing in the low weakening into the weekend, with conditions
becoming drier over western Washington. There may be a shower or
two in the Cascades, but overall most of the interior looks to
be dry over the weekend with high temperatures in the mid 50s.
Overnight lows look to become cooler in the low to mid 30s, with
some locations even seeing mid to upper 20s, particularly in
the Southwest Interior. Weak ridging will allow conditions to
likely remain dry heading into midweek.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.AVIATION...An upper level trough will remain just offshore of
Western Washington into Thursday producing southwest flow aloft.
The air mass is somewhat unstable. Showers will continue across
the region...most numerous near the coast. With low level winds
easing overnight, areas of MVFR ceilings are expected to form
toward daybreak before lifting again Thursday afternoon.
KSEA...A general decrease in shower activity is expected overnight
with most activity south and west of the terminal. As surface winds
ease somewhat overnight, an general lowering of ceilings is expected
with periods of higher end MVFR 12Z-18Z before lifting back to VFR
Thursday afternoon. Surface winds E/SE easing to 5 to 7 knots this
evening and continuing into Thursday morning.
27
&&
.MARINE...Seas have peaked across the coastal waters earlier
this morning, but remain quite steep with dominant periods
around 8 to 9 seconds. As a result, a small craft advisory
remains in effect for these areas through the evening. Expect
both the seas to decrease and the dominant period to lengthen,
so this should be good to expire by the end of the night.
Elsewhere, conditions on the Grays Harbor bar are expected to
worsen around a very strong ebb this evening as seas steepen and
build, so an advisory has been issued here as well.
Looking ahead, seas will likely build early next week back to around
10 ft with the arrival of a long period swell into the coastal
waters.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 9 PM PDT this evening for Grays
Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion