Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
212
FXUS66 KSEW 071020
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
220 AM PST Sat Feb 7 2026
.SYNOPSIS...A frontal system will move across Western Washington
today for lowland rain and breezy winds. Another system will
move into Oregon and southern Washington Sunday. Unsettled
weather continues early next week with split flow. A brief
period of drier weather Wednesday before additional systems late
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...Rain is just offshore as of
200 AM early this morning as the next frontal system approaches.
Rain will spread inland through the morning as the front moves
across Western Washington today. Southerly winds will also be
breezy into the afternoon. Wind gusts will be strongest along
the coast, and from Whidbey Island northwards, where gusts of 25
to 40 MPH are expected. Localized gusts to 45 MPH may also occur
around Whidbey Island, Bellingham, and the north coast, but are
not expected to be widespread. The bulk of the precipitation
will push east of the lowlands by this evening, with lingering
precipitation into the Cascades tonight. Another system will
move into Oregon on Sunday, with the best chance of
precipitation Sunday from Snohomish County southwards. Snow
levels around 6000 feet today will drop towards 4000 to 4500
feet by Sunday afternoon.
Cool, unsettled conditions continue Sunday night and Monday
with lingering, light precipitation. Snow levels fall to 3000
to 3500 feet during this period, resulting in light snowfall
accumulations for the mountains, including the Passes.
Temperatures will also cool, with highs mainly in the mid to
upper 40s by Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...Weak troughing will
be over Western Washington Monday night through Tuesday.
However, the majority of the energy associated with the
troughing will be focused over California, with more of a split
flow regime over the Pacific Northwest. Precipitation chances
dwindle on Tuesday, although still remain, with POPs mainly
around 20 to 30 percent. Weak ridging nudges into Western
Washington on Wednesday, likely resulting in a drier day for
much of the area, although areas of fog and stratus are expected,
at least in the morning. Another front is forecast to move
towards the area Thursday, with increasing precipitation into
Friday. JD
&&
.AVIATION...Mostly VFR conditions early this morning, except
along the coast, where MVFR cigs have developed ahead of an
incoming frontal system. A few localized areas of fog have also
developed at CLM and OLM. Expect ceilings to continue to
gradually lower this morning, becoming mostly widespread MVFR
(to localized IFR) conditions as well as increasing rain
showers. Visibility issues may be possible in heavier rain. Rain
will continue across the area through tonight, however,
expected ceilings to remain low tonight going into early Sunday
morning as moisture lingers across the area. MVFR cigs, down to
IFR possible along the coast, will continue through the TAF
period as rain doesn`t look to end until late tonight.
Additionally, gusty southeasterly surface winds will develop
ahead of the front this morning, with the strongest winds north
of KPAE. There, gusts up to 30-35 kt will be possible this
afternoon before winds begin to ease tonight.
KSEA...VFR conditions early this morning with rain arriving
shortly. Ceilings lower to MVFR around 18Z and look to remain
in that range for the remainder of the TAF period. Rain begins
to taper off around 06Z Sun but scattered showers may linger
through around 12Z. Southeasterly winds will increase this
morning, peaking this afternoon before becoming mostly light
overnight into Sunday.
62
&&
.MARINE...A frontal system will continue to traverse across the
area waters today. Small Craft Advisory winds will continue
across the coastal waters through late this morning, while winds
through the interior waters will begin to increase later this
morning and through much of the afternoon. Following the frontal
passage, a quick push of westerlies down the Strait of Juan de
Fuca will keep headlines going for the central and east Strait
into tonight. Otherwise, winds ease area-wide tonight.
A few additional weak systems move through the area Sunday and
Monday but winds look to remain below advisory thresholds.
Broad high pressure begins to set up on Tuesday through mid-
week for more tranquil conditions. The next more significant
system looks to arrive by the end of the week.
Seas will rise up to around 12-14 ft today before easing to
around 8-10 ft through Tuesday. Seas may continue to lower
below 8 ft into mid-week.
62
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Heavier precipitation over the weekend will force
rises on the Skokomish River in Mason County over the weekend
with the river continuing to remain close to minor flood stage.
Flooding is not expected elsewhere over the next 7 days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for East
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Grays Harbor
Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
Admiralty Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The San
Juan Islands-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for Central
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 PM PST this
afternoon for Puget Sound and Hood Canal.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion