Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
138
FXUS66 KSEW 091831
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1031 AM PST Mon Feb 9 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A passing front will bring widespread rain and mountain snow
through the day today, with showers lingering through early
Tuesday. A brief break in the pattern as transient high pressure
moves through midweek, but the next disturbance arrives by
Friday. This will maintain rain and mountain snow, along with
cooler conditions, though the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The next front is pushing onshore early this morning, with the
associated band of precipitation reaching the coastline at this
hour. As this pushes inland, expect to see colder air also
filter in the region, bringing the snow level down to around
3000 ft by later morning. Widespread showers continue in the
cool, unstable post-frontal air mass, which brings a few inches
of snow down to Stevens and Snoqualmie passes through the day.
Most likely amounts are short of advisory thresholds, but
motorists traveling over the Cascades should expect to encounter
winter conditions. There`s also a low (around 10-15%) chance of
an isolated lightning strike or two near the coast or offshore
through the day as lapse rates steepen behind the front.
Showers taper through the morning Tuesday as the upper level
support for continued precipitation moves out of the area. This
brings a brief intermission to the more active weather as
heights rise and we dry out. The other side to this is that
cooler overnight temperatures (many spots in the lower 30s) and
clearing will give way to another round of morning fog on
Wednesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ensemble guidance remains in strong agreement that the brief
break will indeed not last long, as the next disturbance will
already be approaching by late Thursday. This will bring another
round of precipitation chances, but with fairly good agreement
in the ensembles that the system will be focused well to our
south, this looks to preclude widespread impacts but just a
passing focus for additional precipitation (in the form of
lowland rain and mountain snow). Nearly all of the ensemble
members favor a deeper trough by the end of the weekend that
suggest a very high (>80%) likelihood of a colder and wet
pattern taking shape late in the weekend.
&&
.AVIATION...
A surface trough will continue to produce showers across terminals
through tonight, with coverage decreasing. MVFR/VFR ceilings are
present at most terminals (with a couple pockets of IFR/LIFR in the
interior from KPWT to KPAE). Few visibility reductions to 2-4SM have
been observed with the showers as well. Most terminals (except in
the mountains/coast) will see ceilings improve to VFR late this
morning/afternoon, with south winds 7-12 kt through tonight shifting
to the east/northeast 3-6 kt Tuesday morning. The light
winds/clearer skies have increased probabilities for mist/fog
development Tuesday morning, with the highest chances being in the
south interior/Kitsap areas, and a medium chance in the interior
(with some uncertainty with how far it will push into some of the
major terminals in the morning).
KSEA...MVFR cigs this morning with vicinity showers in and around
the terminals. Improvement to VFR is expected after 18Z as ceilings
lift and scatter. Fog potential will increase going into early
Tuesday morning (25-35%), with some uncertainty as to how far it
will track from development to the southwest of the terminal. South
winds 7 to 12 kt will ease this evening to 3-6 kt from the
east/northeast tonight/Tuesday.
62/HPR
&&
.MARINE...
A weak frontal system traversing the area waters today will slightly
increase southerly winds across the area today, but this will remain
well below headlines. Seas will also remain in the 8-10 ft range.
Broad high pressure will set up across the area on Tuesday, allowing
winds to remain relatively light and seas to east to around 5-7 ft.
The next frontal system will arrive Thursday into Friday, and with
it bring a round of increased winds that may require headlines, as
well as seas quickly increasing above 10 ft, perhaps over 15 ft by
Thursday night. Additional systems through the weekend will keep
winds breezy and seas above 10 ft through then.
62
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
River flooding is not expected during the next seven days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion