Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
910
FXUS66 KSEW 062135
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
235 PM PDT Mon Jul 6 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring continued warm and dry conditions
across western Washington today. Onshore flow will increase on
Tuesday ahead of an incoming weak front Wednesday, bringing
in cooler temperatuers and chances for light rain. The remainder
of the week will see near normal temperatures with morning
clouds and afternoon sun breaks.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level high pressure ridge will continue to shift inland
today, bringing several degrees of warming to western Washington
today. Temperatures are on track to peak in the upper 70s to mid
80s for most areas this afternoon under clear skies, except for
cooler conditions along the coast with highs in the upper 60s.
In addition, smoke from wildfires in British Columbia has
filtered southward through the Fraser Valley, causing locally
hazy conditions in Whatcom County.
An upper level trough moving southward from British Columbia
will cause the ridge to break down tonight, generating onshore
flow over the Pacific Northwest. An overnight marine push will
bring in low stratus and high clouds early Tuesday morning. This
will bring temperatures down several degrees, with highs Tuesday
reaching the mid 60s to upper 70s. A weakening frontal system
associated with the upper trough will swing across western
Washington late Tuesday into Wednesday, increasing onshore flow
and continuing a cooling trend. The northeastern Olympics and
northern Cascades may even see some light rain as this frontal
system works its way eastward on Wednesday. Outside of periodic
westerly pushes through the Strait of Juan de Fuca, winds will
generally stay light through the short term.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Post-frontal zonal flow will develop aloft on Thursday with
continued onshore flow at the surface. This will allow for
another morning of cloudy skies with sun breaks developing by
the afternoon and near-normal temperatures in the mid 70s.
Towards the weekend, another upper low is set to drop southward
over Vancouver Island, maintaining onshore flow over western
Washington with morning low clouds and afternoon sun breaks.
Chances for rain increase on Friday and Saturday as the low
approaches, but models continue to show differences over the
storm track.
By next Monday, a strong high pressure system is set to develop
over the central US and is favored to amplify towards western
Washington. This could bring in warmer temperatures by early
next week, with chances for monsoon moisture to creep eastward
of the Cascade crest.
15
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevail this afternoon with some lower stratus
at the coast. Forecasts support a return to MVFR ceilings
tonight/Tuesday morning for the coast. There is also a 20-30%
probability for the KSEA area to see MVFR ceilings between
12Z-17Z Tuesday, and this has been added to the TAF as a
scattered layer. Winds are shifting to NW this afternoon and are
in the 5-12 kt range. Breezy conditions are expected along the
Strait of Juan de Fuca this evening with gusts to 25 kt. Surface
winds transition to SW late tonight/early Tuesday morning.
KSEA...VFR expected through the TAF period with a few high clouds at
times. Winds will transition NW this afternoon at 6-9 kt with gusts
near 15 kt possible through 06Z. Winds then shift SW early Tuesday
morning after 08-09z. There is a 20-30% chance for MVFR ceilings
between 12-17Z Tuesday, and this has been added as a scattered layer
through this time. After, VFR conditions with W to NW winds continue
into Tuesday afternoon.
29
&&
.MARINE...
Winds are weakening, but seas linger around 7-8 ft today with a
dominant period around 7-8 seconds, and the advisory continues
through 5 PM. Small craft winds have began to reach the central
and east Strait, and will continue through Tuesday morning.
Broad high pressure over area waters continues to weaken with a
frontal system expected to move over area waters late Tuesday/early
Wednesday. Stronger high end small craft westerlies are likely (70-
85% chance) Tuesday and Wednesday evenings. The highest probability
for gale conditions (45-60%) will be from the Central Strait of Juan
De Fuca and into the western portion of the East Entrance. Wednesday
evening will have a slightly higher confidence for low-end gales.
For now, a Gale Watch has been issued for Tuesday afternoon/evening.
However, towards the end of the period (03Z Wed-06Z Wed), winds
could weaken to bring a return of small craft conditions.
Later on Wednesday high pressure will rebuild in the wake of the
front. Another front will move over area waters late in the week,
weakening high pressure again. Onshore flow will continue through
the Strait of Juan de Fuca throughout the week.
29
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Warmer and drier conditions across western Washington will peak
today, with onshore flow increasing through the remainder of the
week. This will bring in a cooling trend alongside good
overnight humidity recoveries and periods of morning low
stratus. A weakening frontal system will cross the region late
Tuesday into Wednesday, with little in the way of rain or wind.
Conditions heading into next week are favored to dry out and
warm up as a strong upper level ridge builds into the region.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM PDT Tuesday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening for
Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion