Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
230
FXUS66 KSEW 242046
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
146 PM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A stronger, more typical fall weather system has arrived on the
coast this afternoon, and will continue moving into the area
through Friday. Rain, increasing winds and the potential for
isolated thunderstorms are forecast for the area through
tomorrow. Drier, but cool weather is expected over the weekend
with additional chances for precipitation early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Rain has arrived along the coast and is working its way inland
to the Kitsap Peninsula this afternoon. More widespread rain is
expected throughout Puget Sound this evening, which will
continue overnight. The core of the low pressure system and
associated front will be arriving tomorrow morning, and will
increase not only the southerly winds along the coast, but the
instability for afternoon thunderstorms. There is still some
uncertainty as to where the center of the low makes landfall.
The ensembles favor it arriving at the Columbia River Bar, but
there is still a 10-15% chance that it arrives along coastal
Grays Harbor County. If this scenario occurs, winds throughout
Puget Sound will be stronger, with gusts upwards of 25-35 mph.
Gusts along the coast in this situation would be closer to 50-55
mph. There is still considerable spread between the 10th and
90th percentile solutions for wind gusts. Conditions will be
monitored and the forecast will be updated if guidance suggests
the more northward track of the low. Current QPF forecasts
through Friday evening suggest a half to three quarters of an
inch of rain in the lowlands with over an inch along the coast,
Olympics and Cascades.
In addition to the gusty conditions, snow levels drop as low as
5,000 to 6,000 feet by late Friday. These elevations could
receive a dusting to few inches of snow. The airmass will be
unstable through Friday, with around a 20-25% chance of
afternoon thunderstorms. These storms will generally favor areas
from King County north, and in the terrain of the Cascades. Any
storm that develops will be capable of lightning, small hail,
brief periods of heavy rain and gusty/erratic winds. Keep this
in mind for any outdoor activities tomorrow afternoon.
Conditions dry out quickly overnight on Friday into Saturday
morning. Highs will struggle to get much warmer than the low 60s
under mostly cloudy skies.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Sunday will also be dry with highs again in the low 60s, though
with more afternoon sunshine. Zonal flow aloft will continue
into Monday, with general troughing over the NE Pacific.
Additional systems bringing more rain appear possible on Monday
and Tuesday, with a midweek break and more unsettled weather by
late in the week.
21
&&
.AVIATION...
Most locations remain under VFR conditions with ceilings slowly
lowering this afternoon. A low pressure system will gradually move
through tonight into tomorrow. This system will bring rain across
the area this evening along the coast and pushing inland overnight
into early Friday. Ceilings will lower to MVFR to IFR, with periods
of LIFR possible in the heaviest rain along the coast. Lower
ceilings will arrive to the coast around 00Z, moving into the
interior around 06-09Z tonight and persist through the TAF period.
Periods of lower visibility will also be possible in the heaviest
rain. There will be a slight (15-25%) chance of thunderstorms on
the back end of the system, mainly Friday morning along the coast
and Friday afternoon through the interior.
Winds N/NE 5-8 kt this afternoon will ease tonight. Winds will
increase along the coast after around 12Z Friday morning, then
across the interior after 18Z Friday. Gusts up to 15-25 kt will be
possible across much of the area through 00Z Sat. Gusts may locally
reach 30 kt through the Strait of Juan de Fuca and the Pacific coast.
62
KSEA...VFR conditions continue through this evening with high
clouds continuing to lower. MVFR cigs will likely prevail from
around 09Z Fri through the end of period. Some periods of IFR
may be possible through 15Z Fri in heavier rain. Expect some
limitations to visibility as well in heavier rain. N winds will
continue at 5-10 kt through this evening. Winds turn to the S
Friday morning and increase during the day with gusts up to
20-25 kt after around 18Z Fri.
62
&&
.MARINE...
A low pressure system will continue to slowly make its way through
the coastal waters. The low center currently sits of the coast of
south-central OR but will make its way to the northwest, likely
making landfall around the mouth of the Columbia early Friday
morning. Winds will increase over the coastal waters tonight, with
the strongest winds over the southern-most zones, especially on the
back side of the low center as the winds switch from
south/southeasterly to north/northwesterly. That is where the
highest confidence for gale force winds will be. Winds will ease
over the coastal waters Friday afternoon. Through the interior
waters, winds will start to increase Friday morning. The strongest
winds will be through the Strait of Juan de Fuca, where gusts may
reach up to 35-40 kt. Elsewhere, Small Craft Advisory conditions are
expected. Winds will peak across the interior waters Friday
afternoon before slowly easing Friday night.
Conditions become calmer through the weekend as high pressure
rebuilds offshore. A weak frontal system will dissipate well
offshore on Sunday. A stronger system looks to move through the
waters on Tuesday, which will be the next chance for gusty winds
over the area waters.
Seas 6-8 ft this afternoon will rise to around 10-13 ft, locally as
high as 13-15 ft under the strongest winds. Seas then ease Friday
night, down to 4-6 ft through the weekend. Seas may rise back to
around 10 ft as the next system moves through on Tuesday.
Lastly, there is a 15-20% chance of thunderstorms over the coastal
waters on Friday.
62
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning from 11 AM Friday to 5 AM PDT Saturday for
Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM Friday to 5 AM PDT Saturday for
Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday for Puget
Sound and Hood Canal.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 11 PM PDT Friday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm.
Gale Warning from 11 PM this evening to 5 PM PDT Friday for
Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion