Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
305
FXUS66 KSEW 011710
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
910 AM PST Sun Feb 1 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front moving through Western Washington today with another
system moving through Monday. Upper level ridge building over
the area beginning Monday night. Ridge remaining over Western
Washington through Thursday with the ridge moving east Friday.
Front moving into Western Washington next weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...No significant change made
to the forecast this morning. The previous discussion can be
found below along with updates to the aviation section:
Cold front offshore moving inland later today. Rain spreading
over the entire area by sunrise with rain continuing into the
afternoon hours. Fog going away this morning as the lower layer
of the air mass gets stirred up with the arrival of the rain.
Winds picking up later this morning as the front approaches with
gusts 25-30 mph over the Coast, Northwest Interior and in the
foothills. Highs in the lower 50s.
High astronomical tides combining with the lower surface
pressures this morning creating some minor coastal
flooding/tidal overflow near the Puget Sound, Strait of Juan de
Fuca, Hood Canal and Salish Sea.
Front east of the area tonight with some post frontal showers
over the area especially in the Cascades. Snow levels near 5000
feet today barely dropping tonight keeping the precipitation in
the form of rain in the passes or rain/snow mix in the higher
passes. Lows tonight in the lower to mid 40s.
Another system making its way into Western Washington Monday
keeping rain in the forecast. Once again winds picking up over
the Coast and Northwest Interior with wind gusts 30-35 mph. Snow
levels near 4000 feet rising to 5000 to 6000 feet by late
afternoon. Highs in the lower 50s.
Upper level ridge beginning to build Monday night with post
frontal showers drying up. Lows in the lower to mid 40s.
Upper level ridge continuing to build over Western Washington
Tuesday. Light flow in the lower levels with plenty of low level
moisture giving areas of fog in the morning. Highs warming with
the ridge overhead into the mid 50s to lower 60s.
With January now in the books there has still been no snow in
Seattle this season. The last time there was zero snow in
Seattle for the season was 1991-92. Last time there was no
measurable snow in Seattle was 2015-2016 with a trace. There has
not been a LaNina season with no measurable snow in Seattle. The
lowest two snow totals for a LaNina season in Seattle are 0.3
inches in 1983-84 and 1.8 inches in 2005-06. Both of those were
weak LaNinas.
Unsurprisingly with no snow it has been unusually warm in
Seattle. The average temperature for November through January
was 45.7 degrees. This is the 2nd warmest in 82 years of
records. The only year that was warmer 2018-19 with 45.9
degrees. NOT a forecast, just a note, it snowed 20.2 inches in
February 2019. Felton
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Extended models showing good consistency with the upper level
ridge over the area through Thursday. Light offshore flow in the
lower levels not strong enough to eliminate all the fog in the
late night and morning hours. Temperatures well above normal
with highs remaining in the mid 50s to lower 60s, the normal
highs for the middle of April.
Ridge moves off to the east Friday with one more warm day.
Weather system approaching the area by late Saturday for a
chance of rain over the area by the afternoon. Highs cooling a
little, back down to the lower to mid 50s. Felton
&&
.AVIATION...
The cold front is moving off to the east, with MVFR to locally IFR
cigs in its wake. Southerly winds are picking up, with gusts likely
topping out around 20 kts throughout Puget Sound today. Cigs look to
improve to VFR for the interior after around 21Z while remaining
lower along the coast and conditions will remain like so through
much of the night. Moist conditions, like the last few nights, will
permit the potential for patchy fog development once again going
into early Monday morning. Fog development is going to be contingent
on how much clearing is achieved this afternoon. Lingering middle
and high clouds could mean more mist and drizzly conditions rather
than fog overnight and into early tomorrow morning.
KSEA...MVFR cigs are transitioning to VFR cigs this morning.
Oscillations between the two are possible through the afternoon
as shower conditions continue moving east from the coast. A
return to VFR conditions is expected behind the frontal passage,
after around 21-23Z, and will persist through tonight. Winds
remain southerly, slowly increasing this morning to around 8-12
kt by late morning, decreasing this evening. Fog cannot be ruled
out, once again, early Monday morning (15-25% prob.). Mid and
high level clouds could translate to a more misty to drizzly
scenario Monday morning and has been reflected in the latest
TAF.
21/62
62
&&
.MARINE...
A cold front will work its way across the coastal waters this
morning. Winds will remain elevated across the coastal waters, as
well as portions of the East Strait, Admiralty Inlet, and the
Northern Inland Waters now through late this morning as the front
makes its way across the area. Winds will be marginally advisory
level, mostly for a few gusts up to 20-25 kt. Winds will briefly
ease this afternoon before another system moves across the area
tonight into Monday. Winds will pick up once again in the same
locations as today, through winds look to be slightly stronger and
more widespread.
Afterwards, beginning Tuesday, broad high pressure builds across the
interior Pacific Northwest, forcing incoming systems to be deflected
and offshore flow will prevail across the area.
Breezy winds may persist across portions of the coastal waters
Tuesday and Wednesday as frontal systems encroach on the area but
move off to the north, tightening the pressure gradient across the
area. Winds ease area-wide by Thursday.
Active weather will keep seas in the 8-13 ft range Sunday and
through the week.
62
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Skokomish River remaining elevated through Monday. A couple
of shots of rain over the South Slopes of the Olympics will
push the river up to near flood stage later today and again on
Monday. The flood watch for Mason county will remain in effect.
The Skokomish will begin receding significantly Tuesday with the
dry weather. No river flooding on the remainder of the rivers
in Western Washington for the next 7 days. Felton
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for City
of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern
Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Island
County-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-
Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish
Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Northern Hood
Canal-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area-
San Juan County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-
Southern Hood Canal.
Flood Watch from 1 PM PST this afternoon through Monday
evening for Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic
Peninsula-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Olympia and
Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Southern Hood Canal-Willapa
and Black Hills.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for
Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan
De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
Islands.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion