Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
680
FXUS66 KSEW 010452
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
852 PM PST Sat Jan 31 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Cooler and unsettled conditions Sunday and Monday
as a series of systems crosses the region. A high pressure ridge
will build over the Pacific Northwest thereafter, allowing for
unseasonably warm and dry conditions with rounds of morning fog
and low stratus.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...High clouds across
Western Washington this evening ahead of the next front. Areas
of fog have developed over southern Puget Sound, with dense fog
at times into tonight. Visibilities are expected to improve
overnight as winds increase ahead of the front. Otherwise, a
Flood Watch has also been issued for Mason County due to the
Skokomish River approaching flood stage late Sunday and Monday.
Previous discussion below:
A trailing cold front will cross western Washington tonight,
bringing in a much cooler air mass alongside another round of
rain and breezy winds. Snow levels will drop as low as 4500 feet
overnight into Sunday, which may produce brief sleet or a light
dusting of snow through the Cascade Passes. High pressure will
start to build northward over the western US on Monday, but a
weather system overrunning the ridge will maintain cooler and
unsettled conditions across western Washington to start the
week. Winds will also pick up as this system digs into the
region on Monday, especially along the Pacific Coast and through
the Strait of Juan de Fuca over Whidbey Island.
Minor coastal flooding due to high astronomical tides also
remains possible through the short-term, but confidence is low
that the region will see any widespread impacts through Monday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Tuesday will kick off a
warming and drying trend as an upper level ridge of high
pressure builds over western Washington. The ridge is favored to
remain in place through most of the week, allowing temperatures
to warm into the upper 50s to lower 60s, with the warmest
temperatures on track for Wednesday and Thursday. While
temperatures will be unseasonably warm for this time of year,
daily records for most locations are a few degrees warmer than
the forecast highs, so confidence is low that this will produce
a record-breaking warm spell. Additionally, while conditions
will be dry, the stagnant pattern will likely promote the
development of patchy fog and low stratus each morning.
Operational forecast models remain fairly split over the timing
of the breakdown of the ridge, showing wet conditions returning
as early as Saturday, while ensembles bring in widespread
precipitation over the weekend.
15
&&
.AVIATION...Southwest flow aloft will continue into Sunday as a
cold front moves across the area. Widespread mid and high
clouds continue this evening ahead of the front. Areas of fog
have developed in southern Puget Sound, with LIFR vsbys in this
region. Visibilities are expected to improve between 09 to 12z
as winds increase ahead of the front. Otherwise, cigs will lower
along the coast early tonight, with MVFR cigs developing across
the interior between 13 to 16z. Brief reductions in vsbys
towards 2 to 5 statute miles may occur Sunday AM with the
frontal passage and a period of steadier rainfall. Cigs will
improve into VFR late Sunday afternoon for the interior, with
continued MVFR/IFR along the coast. Light winds this evening,
with increasing south winds expected through Sunday.
KSEA...VFR mid to high clouds continue. Fog has developed over
southern Puget Sound this evening. Although the fog is expected
to remain southwest of the terminal tonight, brief vsby
reduction cannot be ruled out with any slight fluctuations in
the wind direction to more SW. Otherwise, MVFR cigs will
develop around 16z and continue into Sunday afternoon before
some improvements towards VFR occur mainly after 22z. Brief
reduction in vsbys towards 3 to 5 SM are expected as rain moves
through Sunday AM, mainly between 15 to 20z. Light south winds
increase on Sunday, with winds mainly ranging 7 to 12 kts by
Sunday afternoon. JD
&&
.MARINE...A progressive pattern continues as a series of
systems will traverse the area waters tonight into the first
part of next week. This will help keep periods of Small Craft
Advisory level winds in the forecast for the coastal waters
through at least Tuesday. Small Craft Advisory wind gusts are
also expected tonight through Sunday morning for the eastern
Strait of Juan de Fuca, Admiralty Inlet, and northern inland
waters. Another round of increased winds are expected for these
areas again on Monday.
By Tuesday, building high pressure over the interior of the Pacific
Northwest will begin to deflect incoming systems further offshore
toward the middle of next week and allow for offshore flow to
prevail.
Active weather will keep seas mainly in the 8-12 ft range through
the next 7 days, except up to 13 ft Sunday night into early
Monday.
JD/62
&&
.HYDROLOGY...The Skokomish River continues to recede this
evening as precipitation has briefly tapered off. However,
additional precipitation will bring steadier rainfall at times
over the Olympics tonight through Monday. This will result in
the Skokomish River approaching flood stage again late Sunday
into Monday. A Flood Watch has been issued for Mason County. The
Skokomish River will then recede Tuesday through the rest of the
week. Elsewhere, there is no additional flooding expected
over the next 7 days.
JD
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Flood Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday evening for
Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-
Middle Chehalis River Valley-Olympia and Southern Puget
Sound-Olympics-Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black
Hills.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 11 AM PST Sunday for
Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan
De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
Islands.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion