Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
380
FXUS66 KSEW 241600
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
900 AM PDT Sun May 24 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Another cool and cloudy start to the day is expected, breaking
out in the afternoon for more sunshine. A low pressure system
brings rain, breezy winds and chances for thunderstorms to the
region on Monday. Showery weather continues on Tuesday, with a
return to high pressure likely later in the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
With much less stratus across the area this morning, clouds are
already starting to erode around the edges and places should get
more sun earlier than yesterday. Highs will also be a touch
warmer than yesterday.
Highs are likely to be in the mid to upper 60s, possibly
70 in locations that clear the stratus first. Today will be the
last dry day of the long weekend, as a low pressure system
brings rain, breezy winds and slight chances for thunderstorms
to the region on Monday (Memorial Day).
Rain is likely to arrive on the coast late tonight, spreading
inland throughout the day on Monday. QPF looks to be around a
tenth to quarter inch for the lowlands, and up to an inch on the
windward slopes of the Olympics. Breezy south to southwesterly
winds will pick up late Monday morning, and will be strongest
along the immediate Pacific coast, Admiralty Inlet, eastern
Strait of Juan de Fuca and in the northern inland waters from
Skagit county north. These areas may see gusts of 35 to 40 mph.
Unsecured outdoor items like tents may be at risk during these
winds. Additionally, while SPC has western Washington
highlighted for general thunderstorm risk on Monday, outdoor
events could still be impacted by typical thunderstorm hazards
such as heavy rain and lightning. Chances are slight, around 10
to 20%, but remember to head indoors when thunder roars.
Temperatures on Monday will be a lot cooler, down into the upper
50s and low 60s.
Showery and unsettled weather continues into Tuesday as the
trailing front moves through the region. Isolated thunderstorm
chances remain in the forecast.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The low pressure system responsible for Monday and Tuesday`s
weather will continue to dig south, leaving the PNW in split
flow to gentle ridging into the mid and late week. As such,
temperatures begin to warm from Wednesday onward, reaching highs
back into the mid 70s by Thursday. Ensembles and deterministic
guidance are hinting at broader troughing over the NE Pacific
late in the week for potential for more unsettled weather.
With the broader NE Pacific troughing, long period swell
arriving Thursday poses a bigger threat for extended wave runup
on coastal beaches.
21/62
&&
.AVIATION...
West-southwest flow aloft today will become more southwesterly
by this evening as an upper level trough approaches the Pacific
Northwest from the northeastern Pacific. Weak onshore flow
continues in the low levels. Latest satellite imagery depicts
another round of stratus across Puget Sound this morning,
however cloud cover is not as thick or extensive as yesterday
and satellite trends have already indicated stratus scattering
in some spots. Expect this trend to continue over the next few
hours, with an overall breakout of the stratus deck expected by
18-19Z. Conditions at the area terminals largely remain low-end
VFR as a result, though a few terminals across the central and
south Sound in stratus have dropped to MVFR.
High clouds will also continue to stream overhead and increase
through the day ahead of the next system on Monday. VFR cigs
are expected this afternoon with continued SCT/BKN high clouds.
Surface winds will primarily remain S/SW between 5-10 kt through
the day.
KSEA...MVFR conditions this morning in stratus. Stratus will
continue to lift and scatter between 16-18Z for a return to VFR
by late morning. VFR conditions will persist through tonight
with high clouds expected to stream overhead at times. SW winds
will persist through this afternoon mainly ranging between 4-8
kt. The cloud deck will gradually lower Monday morning as the
next frontal system approaches.
14
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will weaken through today with lighter winds
into this evening across area waters. A low pressure system will
move through the waters on Monday bringing increasing south to
southwest winds. Winds will peak late tonight into Monday morning
for the Coastal Waters and during the day Monday for interior
waters. A Gale Watch has been issued for the Coastal Waters, as well
as the eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca and northern inland waters.
Probabilities for wind gusts exceeding 35 kts range 50 to 80 percent
for these areas, thus giving enough confidence for a Gale Watch at
this time. Small Craft Advisory winds are also expected for most
other waters on Monday. Winds will slowly ease late Monday into
Monday night. High pressure will then build back Tuesday into
Wednesday bringing the return of Small Craft Advisory northerly wind
gusts and steep seas to the outer coastal waters.
Seas will range 6 to 8 feet through this evening before building to
12 to 16 feet by late Monday. Waves will peak around 13 to 16 feet
into Tuesday morning before slowly subsiding to near 10 feet by
Wednesday. A long period swell arrives Wednesday night into
Thursday. This, combined with continued northwest surface winds,
results in seas building again to 10 to 13 feet. JD
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the
next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as
needed.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM to 5 PM PDT Monday for West
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Watch from late tonight through Monday afternoon for East
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern
Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 AM to 5 PM PDT Monday for
Admiralty Inlet.
Gale Watch from this evening through Monday morning for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion