Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
643
FXUS66 KSEW 080533
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
933 PM PST Sun Dec 7 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong atmospheric river will impact the area Monday through
Wednesday, bringing periods of moderate to heavy rainfall and
the threat for significant river flooding to the area. Gusty
winds also move through the area Monday. Minor coastal flooding
due to high astronomical tides will remain possible for the
Salish Sea coastlines through the first part of the week. Wet
and unsettled conditions will continue through the end of the
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Showers continue across the area this afternoon in the wake of
a frontal system that moved through the area this morning.
Expect shower activity to continue into tonight.
Conditions then become wetter on Monday with a strong atmospheric
river still on track to move into the region and impact the area
through Wednesday. The key messages regarding this system are
highlighted below:
KEY MESSAGES:
* RAIN: A strong atmospheric river will arrive on Monday,
bringing extended periods of moderate to heavy rain to western
Washington through Wednesday. The most significant change
within the last 24 hours has been the shift in the axis of
moisture with this system. At this time, the moisture plume
still looks to shift south briefly on Tuesday, however the
latest guidance has it lifting back northward into the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday. This has resulted in an increase
in precipitation totals across the central and south Cascades
this afternoon. While this will have an impact to river
forecasts, the overall message is that it will be a wet first
half of the week for the region. Areas generally south of
Seattle are still expected to see around 2.5 to 5 inches of
rain in a 72 hour period. The Olympics and Cascades are on
track to receive 6-10 inches of rain, though locally higher
amounts across the central and south Cascades of close to 12
inches will be possible through late Wednesday night.
* WIND: Monday will be windy across the region area-wide.
Southwesterly winds will pick up Monday morning, peak Monday
evening, and gradually ease Monday night into Tuesday. The
strongest winds are expected along the coast, but expect gusts
to 40-45 mph at times across the interior. Gusts to 50-55 mph
will be possible along the immediate Pacific coast.
* COASTAL FLOODING: Minor coastal flooding remains possible for
the Salish Sea coastlines through the first half of the week
with high astronomical tides. While the tides will generally
remain below or just close to thresholds, heightened river
flows or wind effects could exacerbate inundation in some
spots around high tide.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Unsettled conditions look to continue across the second half of
the week, though precipitation gradually looks to taper across
the area through the day Thursday. Ensemble guidance does hint
at the building of a ridge along the West Coast Friday into the
weekend, which would help push the storm track further to the
north. This may be short-lived however, as there is some
indication that the ridge axis will shift further inland over
the weekend and open the door for additional, weaker systems to
make their way into western Washington.
14
&&
.AVIATION...
Mix of lower MVFR to IFR ceilings across most terminals this
evening, though conditions remain variable in a moist, stable
air mass across the region. Some scattered showers linger
overnight, but expect continued varied ceilings. More impactful
conditions arrive Monday morning with heavy rain, lower
ceilings, and gusty southerly winds developing across the area
late morning through the day Monday. Ceilings will lower through
the day down to MVFR/IFR as the rain progresses through the
region, and expect IFR visibility in heavy rain at times. Strong
southerly winds during the afternoon and evening with bring
gusts to 40 kt across much of the region.
KSEA...Ceilings likely fluctuate a bit this evening with
abundant low level moisture maintaining some periods of IFR
ceilings though some wind may keep things patchy at times this
evening. Meanwhile, gusty winds to 20 kt continue this evening,
easing by 09z. Expect steadier rain to arrive after 16z Monday
with low ceilings, gusty winds to 30 kt and IFR visibility at
times through the day. Winds likely peak late afternoon with
gusts to 40 kt but remaining elevated through early Tuesday.
&&
.MARINE...
A brief lull in the winds is expected across the region tonight
as the area remains in between weather systems. A stronger
weather system will then move into the waters on Monday, with
winds expected to peak Monday afternoon and evening. Gusts to
gale are likely for the majority of the area waters on Monday,
with latest probabilities still showing roughly a 60 to 90
percent chance of winds reaching 35 kt for much of the area
(especially along the Sound). A push is expected down the Strait
of Juan de Fuca late Monday into Monday night, where a round of
westerly gales looks likely. Winds will subside across the area
waters heading into Tuesday. Additional systems moving into the
area throughout the week may bring elevated winds and seas to
the area waters at times.
Seas between 6 to 8 feet tonight will build to 13 to 16 feet on
Monday. Seas will remain elevated above 10 feet through
midweek, before subsiding to 7 to 9 ft on Thursday.
14
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A strong atmospheric atmospheric will move through the Pacific
Northwest Monday through Wednesday, bringing significant heavy
rainfall across the area. While there`s still some uncertainty in
the precipitation amounts with an atmospheric river moving into the
region, confidence remains high that a widespread river flooding
event will commence late Monday and continue through much of the
week.
Multiple rivers flowing off the Cascades and the Olympics are
forecast to reach Minor, Moderate, and Major flood stage. While
uncertainty does remain in regards to the exact flood levels and
stages through the next week, it will be critical to monitor the
forecasts now and through the next seven days. Additional
precipitation is also possible Thursday into Friday, which may keep
rivers elevated through the second half of the week.
With the wet antecedent soil conditions, the landslide risk across
the region will increase with this system. There may also be
potential impacts to the area burn scars as well.
Urban and small stream flooding, as well as areas with poor
drainage, should be alert to the potential for localized nuisance
flooding and ponding on the roadways. Low water crossings may become
impacted or impassable.
62
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Flood Watch from 4 AM PST Monday through Friday afternoon for
Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of
Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern
King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties-City
of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern
Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-Eastside-
Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-Foothills
and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King Counties-
Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern King
Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis
Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades-
Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-
Grays Harbor County Coast-Island County-Lake Crescent
Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River Valley-
Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Lowlands
of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western
Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of
Western Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River Valley-
Northern Hood Canal-Northern Washington Coast-Olympia and
Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Port Townsend Area-San Juan
County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern
Hood Canal-Western Strait of Juan de Fuca-Willapa and
Black Hills.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to noon PST Monday for
Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish
Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-San Juan
County.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 10 PM PST Monday for City of
Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap
County-Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King
County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King
Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern
King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis
Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades-
Island County-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston
Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-
Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish
Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Northern Hood
Canal-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area-
San Juan County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-
Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills.
Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Monday for Eastern Strait
of Juan de Fuca-Foothills of the Western and Southern
Olympic Peninsula-Grays Harbor County Coast-Lake Crescent
Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River Valley-Middle
Chehalis River Valley-Northern Washington Coast-Western
Strait of Juan de Fuca.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 4 AM PST Tuesday for
Grays Harbor Bar.
Gale Warning from 10 AM to 10 PM PST Monday for Admiralty
Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-
Puget Sound and Hood Canal-West Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning from 1 PM to 10 PM PST Monday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 AM PST Monday for
Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan
De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.
Gale Warning from 7 AM to 7 PM PST Monday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion