Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
836
FXUS66 KSEW 232111
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
211 PM PDT Sat May 23 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather will continue tonight through Sunday, with
cool/cloudy mornings giving way to afternoon sun. A low pressure
system on Monday will bring widespread rain and breezy
conditions, with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the
afternoon. Unsettled conditions continue into Tuesday, with
drier and warmer weather possible by midweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Stratus is continuing to slowly thin out and scatter across
western Washington. The coast is starting to clear, but clouds
will be slower to give way through the Puget Sound interior
where the layer remains the thickest. Once the afternoon sun
arrive, expect highs to rise into the mid to upper 60s, with
areas with earlier clearing potentially reaching near 70. A
similar pattern is expected on Sunday with stratus rebuilding,
giving way to afternoon sun. Highs again in the upper 60s and
low 70s given a slightly earlier clearing time forecast.
The weather will become active on Monday as a low pressure
system approaches and moves across the area. Rain will begin to
arrive at the coast early Monday morning, slowly spreading into
the interior though the morning. Winds will also begin to
increase, peaking late morning/early afternoon as the front
moves through. Gusts for most will likely be in the 20 to 30
mph, but locations along the coast and through the north
interior may see gusts up to 35 to 40 mph. These winds will not
produce much in the way of widespread impacts, but
unsecured/temporary items outside such as tends may be impacted.
Rain will devolve into more scattered showers behind the front
and persist through the afternoon and evening. With the upper
level low not far to the west, that will give some upper level
support for a few isolated to scattered (15-20%) thunderstorms
in the afternoon. Temperatures will be much cooler, down into
the upper 50s to low 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Showers and perhaps a few isolated thunderstorms look to
continue into Tuesday as the system continues to depart. Chances
for thunder are again in the 15-20% Tuesday afternoon, through
more so over the interior areas than along the coast. On the
coast, however, waves will increase late Monday into Tuesday,
which may bring high surf conditions with waves reaching up to
15 ft before slowly easing throughout the day.
The upper level trough continues to dig into the southwestern
U.S., which will allow for warmer and drier conditions to return
to the area, with highs climbing back into upper 60s and low
70s. Models are showing the potential for another trough to move
into the area late next week, which may bring the potential for
slightly cooler weather and chances for scattered showers. Long
period swell arriving to the coast on Thursday may pose a threat
to beachgoers with significant wave runup possible.
62
&&
.AVIATION...
Onshore flow will continue in the low levels through the TAF
period, with northwesterly flow aloft becoming more westerly
into Sunday. Latest satellite imagery shows stratus has largely
scattered along the coast, but continues to linger across
portions of the interior this afternoon. Conditions are primarily
MVFR for terminals in stratus and VFR for terminals elsewhere.
Stratus is expected to continue to lift and scatter over the
next few hours for a more widespread return to VFR ceilings by
mid-afternoon. Another round of stratus is likely to push into
the interior between 10-12Z on Sunday. Ceilings will likely
lower to MVFR for a few hours in the morning, before improving
back to VFR by 18-19Z. Surface winds remain out of the west/
southwest for KBLI, KCLM, and KHQM and have been gusty at times
between 15-25 kt. Surface winds may briefly become northerly
for central Puget Sound terminals this evening, though will
remain light at 6 kt or less, before shifting back to the south
late tonight into early Sunday.
KSEA...MVFR conditions with stratus slowly lifting and scattering
at the terminal this afternoon for a return to VFR conditions
between 22-23Z. Winds remain out of the southwest at 5-8 kt this
and may briefly switch to the north this evening between 03-06Z.
Winds will likely remain light at 6 kt or less, before shifting
back to the south by early Sunday. Another round of stratus will
likely move into the terminal between 10-12Z Sunday, with
probabilistic guidance indicating a 30 percent chance of ceilings
lowering to MVFR by 12Z. Expect stratus to scatter by 18Z for a
return to VFR. Winds will be out of the south, increasing to
6-9 kt Sunday afternoon.
14
&&
.MARINE...
Surface high pressure well offshore will result in
continued onshore flow through the weekend. A strong westerly
push is expected through the Strait of Juan de Fuca this
evening, for which a Gale Warning will remain in effect for the
central and eastern portions of the Strait through late tonight.
This will also push into Admiralty Inlet, for which a Small
Craft Advisory will continue through late tonight as well. Winds
will ease Sunday as high pressure weakens. A low pressure system
will approach and move through the area waters on Monday which
will bring stronger southwesterly winds. Winds will increase to
SCA level early Monday morning through the coastal waters, later
in the morning through Puget Sound up into the East Strait and
Northern Inland Waters. Winds will switch to more
west/southwesterly following the frontal passage mid-day, but
winds will not ease until late in the day. High pressure then
rebuilds Tuesday into Wednesday, bringing back the previous
regime of Small Craft Advisory winds and steep seas in the
outermost coastal waters.
Seas remain steep, especially through the outer coastal waters,
with waves 6-10 ft with a dominant period of around 8 seconds.
Seas will ease to around 5-7 ft Sunday before waves increase on
Monday as the low moves through the area. Waves peak Tuesday
morning at around 14 to 16 ft before slowly easing throughout
the day to around 8 to 10 ft. Long period swell looks to arrive
Thursday, which pushes seas up to 8 to 12 ft.
62
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the
start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated during
this time as needed.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 5 AM PDT Sunday for Central U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait
Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT
Sunday for Admiralty Inlet.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Sunday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
To 60 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion