Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
182
FXUS66 KSEW 151547
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
847 AM PDT Thu Oct 15 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge will bring dry and warm conditions through
Friday. Wetter and cooler weather arrives on Saturday. Sunday
remains cool with more wet weather headed our way on Monday.
Another front may reach us midweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The Dense Fog Advisory has been extended until 10AM this morning
as there are still quite a few locations throughout the Puget
Sound region where visibilities are at a quarter mile or less.
Otherwise, afternoon sun is still expected with highs around 70.
The rest of the previous discussion can be found below with an
update to the aviation and marine sections.
Forecast highs will track warmer than normal with lower 70s
expected today. Areas near the water will be in the 60s.
Offshore flow will peak overnight with gusty east winds along
the Cascade crest and in the gaps (gusts to 20-30 MPH). Friday
will be slightly warmer with interior temperatures reaching the
mid 70s.
Saturday`s weather will be cooler and wetter as the ridge shifts
east and a front/trough move in from the west. Rain will mostly
fall during the morning hours with highest chances of seeing
wetting rains along the coast and north part. The Seattle area
on south may only see a trace to a few hundredths. Onshore flow
will increase Saturday afternoon with showers and a convergence
zone over Snohomish County. 33
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
We`re in between weather systems on Sunday but the air mass
will remain cool. Sunday`s morning lows will be in the 30s to
mid 40s with temperatures near freezing across the south sound.
Highs will be around 60 degrees. An upper low will spin offshore
early next week keeping the weather cool and unsettled through
Monday. The upper low will shift farther south on Tuesday for
generally dry weather across western WA. Rain chances increase
again on Wednesday as a weak front tracks down from B.C. 33
&&
.AVIATION...
Areas of fog and low stratus are bringing IFR to LIFR conditions to
many of the interior terminals this morning. Fog will scatter
through the morning hours, with conditions expected to improve at
the area terminals between 17-19Z. A return to VFR conditions is
expected by this afternoon with mostly clear skies and high clouds
streaming in overhead. High cloud cover will persist through
tonight. High cloud cover and continued offshore flow in the low
levels tonight will likely limit widespread fog development on
Friday morning, with high-res guidance showing little to no fog
development expected for the area terminals. However, NBM LAMP
guidance suggests some development by Friday morning. Given the
current discrepancy, will maintain fog for the more fog-prone
locations across the south Sound for Friday morning at this time.
Winds remain north/northeasterly 5 to 10 kt through the period.
Easterly winds will persist through the Cascades with gusts up to 20-
25 kt through the gaps this afternoon and into this evening.
KSEA...LIFR conditions at the terminal this morning. Stratus and fog
look to scatter around 18-19Z followed by VFR conditions with high
clouds through this evening. Fog/stratus development is possible
Friday morning but high clouds should keep it less widespread.
Latest guidance continues to show divergent solutions. Winds
north/northeasterly 5-10 kt through this afternoon. Winds may turn
east/southeasterly briefly as early as 20-22Z, but more likely
around 00Z Fri before winds shift more to the south/southwest Friday
morning.
62/14
&&
.MARINE...
Areas of fog have have developed across portions of the interior
waters and along the Strait of Juan de Fuca this morning and have
become dense in spots. Fog may bring visibilities down to 1 nautical
mile or less through the mid-morning hours, before scattering by
late morning/early afternoon.
Offshore flow will increase this morning as a thermal trough
develops along the coast. Winds will peak this morning, but remain
offshore through early Friday as the trough gets pushed inland by an
incoming frontal system. This system will force winds to switch to
onshore on Friday and increase Friday night into Saturday. The
strongest winds will be most likely through the Strait of Juan de
Fuca where there is a 35-45% chance of seeing up to low-end gale
force gusts, but other locations such as the outer coastal waters
and through Puget Sound and Hood Canal have 40-70% chances of seeing
wind gusts over 20 kt. Winds look to decrease as the system departs
Saturday evening. Winds look to remain relatively benign Sunday
through early next week as systems are favored to pass by well
offshore.
Seas remain 4 to 6 ft through tonight, increasing to around 8 to
near 10 ft Friday through the weekend. The forecast gets more
uncertain on Monday as a low pressure system moves through well
offshore, but could generate and send larger waves to the coastal
waters. The most likely forecast remains in the 8 to 10 ft range,
but waves could get as large as 13 to 16 ft depending on the exact
track of this system. EPS and GEFS show a 20-30% chance of seas
exceeding 12 ft Monday into Tuesday.
62/14
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PDT this morning for City of
Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap
County-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-
Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King Counties-Lowlands of
Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-
Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Olympia and Southern
Puget Sound-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area.
PZ...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM PDT this morning for Northern
Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-Puget Sound
and Hood Canal.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion