Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
654
FXUS66 KSEW 262041
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
141 PM PDT Sun Jul 26 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Slow moving front offshore will move inland later today and
dissipate tonight into Monday. Light showers will be possible
across the north and western portions of the area. Briefly
warmer on Monday before another weak front arrives Tuesday. Dry
and warmer weather Wednesday into Friday as an upper level
ridge centered over the Southwest builds back towards the
Pacific Northwest. Another weak front will try and move into the
area Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
A very slow moving front continues to sit just offshore this
afternoon. Light showers continue to persist across portions of
the western Olympic Peninsula as well as areas north of Whidbey
Island. This will continue to be the case through tonight as the
front attempts to inch westward before just falling apart and
dissipating by Monday. Elsewhere in western Washington, partly
to mostly cloudy conditions persist, through there`s some more
sun down closer to White Pass. High temperatures will be below
normal, with highs in the 60s under rain, with low to mid 70s in
areas without rain.
A brief increase in the upper level heights during the day
Monday should allow for just enough subsidence to clear out
skies at least in locations west of the Salish Sea by the
afternoon. This should for highs in the interior to reach back
up closer to normal. in the mid 70s to near 80. Lingering clouds
and slight chances for light showers/drizzle will keep highs in
the 60s there.
Another frontal system looks to reach western Washington early
Tuesday as a shortwave trough moves through the larger trough
over the British Columbia coast. Another day similar today,
though with slightly higher chances of seeing some light
precipitation across the interior. Expect most places south of
Everett and east of Olympia/I-5 to remain mostly dry, through.
Highs back down into the 60s to low 70s in the interior. Winds
may gust up to 20-25 mph around the Salish Sea and the Kitsap
Peninsula with an increase in west/southwesterly winds.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The question for the long term forecast will be the evolution of
the forecast for next weekend. Models have been consistent and
still are, through the end of the week, on the high sitting over
the Four Corners region to retrograde and build up towards the
Pacific Northwest. Heights will rise, but with onshore flow
remaining, temperatures will slowly rise back around to near or slightly
above normal by Friday. By Saturday, the closed low over the
Gulf of Alaska will start to drift back southward and pinch the
upper level jet stream across the area. Deterministic forecasts
are showing the potential for a shortwave moving through that
may send chances for light showers across the area once again
through the weekend. Looking at the ensemble forecast space,
it`s about a 50/50 split whether the ridge remains strong enough
to keep us dry and warmer or if the trough can win out and keep
cooler and cloudier conditions in the forecast. It`s not the
typical forecast for late July/early August, but will continue
to monitor model trends and see if trends favor one solution
over the other.
62
&&
.AVIATION...
A weak front will dissipate over the interior of Western Washington
tonight. Southwesterly flow continues aloft. Areas of IFR along the
coast in light rain will lift to MVFR this afternoon as
precipitation diminishes. VFR ceilings will continue across
most interior areas.
KSEA...VFR ceilings expected to continue at or above 040 into Monday
morning before lifting further Monday afternoon. Surface winds
southwesterly 6 to 10 knots becoming light southerly overnight then
increasing to southwesterly 6 to 10 knots again Monday afternoon.
27
&&
.MARINE...
A slow moving front will move inland and dissipate tonight over the
inland waters. High pressure will build in behind the front Monday.
Another front will move into the area waters Tuesday. High pressure
will build in again behind the front Tuesday night and remain over
the waters through Thursday night.
Diurnal westerly pushes through the Strait of Juan de fuca could
produce small craft advisory westerly winds in the evening
Wednesday through Friday.
Felton/27
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Onshore flow with generally cooler conditions and elevated RHs will
linger through Tuesday. A weak system will clip the area Monday
night into Tuesday, with a good shot for wetting rain for the north
coast and West Slopes of the Olympics. REFS has a 60-80% chance of
0.25 in or more for the north Coast and northwest Olympics, and NBM
showing as much as a 92% chance. Dry and warmer conditions return
Wednesday through Friday. MinRHs start to dip into the 30 Thursday
and Friday, but persistent low level onshore flow will help maintain
good humidity recoveries in the overnight hours.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion