Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
386
FXUS66 KSEW 252151
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
251 PM PDT Wed Mar 25 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring lowland rain and mountain snow today.
Weak high pressure will build over the region on Thursday,
bringing drier and milder temperatures through this weekend. An
upper level trough will bring back unsettled conditions early
next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Latest radar imagery shows generally light to moderate
precipitation moving across Western Washington this evening as a
cold front continues to push eastward this afternoon, bringing
lowland rain and mountain snow. A Winter Weather Advisory
remains in effect for the northern Cascades with 8 to 12 inches
expected. High-res guidance remains consistent with a
convergence zone developing this evening in Snohomish County and
then gradually drifting southwards towards the Snohomish/King
County line, which includes Stevens Pass. Expect higher rain
and snow rates along the convergence zone. In addition, an
unstable air mass over the region will bring a slight chance
(10-20%) of isolated thunderstorms to the region today. Behind
the cold front, expect precipitation to turn more showery in
nature. Isolated showers will continue into the first past of
Thursday, with showers tapering by Thursday evening as weak high
pressure beings to build over the region. High pressure over
the region will bring a break in precipitation and milder
temperatures late in the week. A front will approach from
British Columbia on Friday, but will fall apart before making it
to Western Washington.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry and mild temperatures will continue into the weekend, with
temperatures peaking in the mid to upper 50s. On Sunday, an
upper level trough over the Gulf of Alaska will slowly descend
southwards, marking the return of unsettled conditions to the
region early next week. Model solutions begin to differ around
the middle of the week. Conditions look to remain unsettled
midweek, but there is significant disagreement between the track
of an upper level low at this time.
MGF
&&
.AVIATION...
A shortwave trough will drag a cold front across the terminals this
afternoon. The jet stream pattern remains strong-zonal for the flow,
with winds out of the west/southwest. Down at the surface, winds
will continue to remain breezy out of the southwest with sustained
winds 8-12 kt, gusting up to 20-25 kt. The line of showers will
continue to track eastward into the mountains, with showers becoming
more scattered behind this line later this evening/Thursday. A
convergence zone will develop this afternoon in southern Snohomish
County, and likely remain within the vicinity of KPAE through
tonight (staying north of KSEA and KBFI). There remains a 20% chance
of thunder with activity through this evening. Ceilings are likely
to remain VFR with the lighter showers/dry periods of the TAF period
(expect lower ceilings/visibilities with heavier showers this
afternoon down to MVFR and even IFR briefly). Gusty winds will
diminish tonight to 10 kt or less out of the southeast/southwest
into Thursday.
KSEA...Showers this afternoon will become more scattered through the
evening, becoming drier later tonight/Thursday. Ceilings with a
heavier shower may dip briefly down to MVFR (as well as
visibilities). Otherwise expect VFR conditions with light showers or
dry conditions through the TAF period. Breezy southwest winds 8-12
kt gusting to 25 kt will diminish tonight to 10 kt or less out of
the south Thursday.
HPR
&&
.MARINE...
A trough will swing a cold front across the waters this afternoon.
The winds behind the front will increase as onshore flow through
tonight. Several small craft warnings remain in effect for portions
of the interior and coastal waters, and a gale warning for the
eastern two thirds of the Strait of Juan de Fuca through tonight.
Winds will ease going into Thursday with ridging building over the
region inland. This will cause brief offshore flow to finish off the
week for most waterways. A weak system will approach Sunday, with a
potential for a trough moving over the waters towards midweek next
week. Probability of impactful winds remains low going into this
weekend/next week for any headlines.
Seas will decrease below 10 ft today, dropping into the 6-8 ft range
through the weekend, further decreasing to 4-6 ft next week.
HPR
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding expected in the next 7 days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for Cascades
of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of
Whatcom and Skagit Counties.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Northern Inland
Waters Including The San Juan Islands-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PDT this evening for Admiralty
Inlet-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion