Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
281
FXUS66 KSEW 081849
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1049 AM PST Thu Jan 8 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Showers continuing through Thursday with
accumulating snowfall in the mountains. Drier conditions are
expected Friday into Saturday. Another frontal system will move
into Western Washington Sunday, with warmer temperatures and
continued precipitation early next week. Dry conditions are
favored to develop midweek.
&&
.UPDATE...Showers continue across the mountains this morning and
some isolated showers are moving over the lowlands. In general
the impacts are mainly confined to snow in the passes. Along the
coast high surf conditions are gradually improving. Focus now
has shifted to the weekend system and any potential for
flooding, which will be the focus of the afternoon update.
-Wolcott-
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Scattered showers
continue across Western Washington early this morning,
particularly in the Cascades and along the Olympic Peninsula.
This trend will continue through the afternoon. Snow levels will
remain lower this morning as well, ranging 800 to 1300 feet.
Brief rain/snow mix may occur in heavier showers, however, no
snow accumulation is expected for the lowlands. Minor snow
accumulations may exist in the Cascade Valleys through the
morning, especially along US-2 (due to weak convergence) and
into Skagit/Whatcom Counties where hi-res guidance suggests
heavier precipitation may develop by mid-morning. These areas
include Index to Skykomish, and in the vicinity of Darrington.
Otherwise, moderate to heavy snowfall will continue at times in
the Cascades, including for the Cascade Passes. A Winter Storm
Warning remains in effect for the Cascades through this
afternoon. Precipitation will slowly taper off this evening in
the lowlands and into Friday morning for the Cascades.
High surf conditions will continue through early afternoon
along the Pacific Coast. Waves 18 to 24 feet are expected
through the morning, before waves subside later today. This
could result in dangerous conditions for beachgoers this
morning.
High pressure will build into Western Washington Friday into
early Saturday, resulting in a period of drier weather. Another
front will move onshore across the Olympic Peninsula late
Saturday, and slowly progress eastwards over the weekend.
Temperatures will gradually warm Friday and Saturday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...The
aforementioned front will continue to bring precipitation on
Sunday, particularly over the Olympic Peninsula. Snow levels
will also rise significantly on Sunday, approaching 5500 to 6500
feet by late weekend. There remains more considerable
uncertainty in the QPF amounts for Monday and Tuesday. Another
frontal system may stall over Western Washington, bring heavier
QPF at times during this period. EPS/GEPS maintains higher QPF
amounts than the GEFS, as the front slides farther southwards
(heaviest from King CO northwards). This uncertainty can be seen
in the 10-90th PCT spread in NBM.. for example, for Stevens
Pass, the 10th-90th PCT range in QPF is 0" to 3.25" in 48 hours
(ending 12z Tuesday). Snow levels will also remain high Monday
and Tuesday, likely peaking between 6500 to 7500 feet. At this
time, river flooding is not expected as drier conditions return
on Wednesday, but rivers will be monitored if heavier QPF comes
to fruition with melting snow in the mountains. Otherwise, upper
ridging builds further over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday,
with drier conditions remaining the predominant theme into late
week as noted by the latest CPC outlook. JD
&&
.AVIATION... Majority of ceilings VFR this morning. Some lingering
low cloud layers near the terminals may cause ceilings to go MVFR at
times. The convergence zone from earlier this morning has lifted
north of PAE. Light scattered showers will continue today. Guidance
continues to trend more pessimistic in regards to ceilings, keeping
MVFR ceilings lingering this afternoon/evening for some of the
terminals.
KSEA...A broken cloud layer around 2000 ft continues to linger at
the terminal this morning. May see some bouncing between MVFR and
VFR at times. The latest guidance seems to favor MVFR ceilings
continuing into the afternoon/evening hours, and thus have trended
the TAFs to reflect it. There may be some VFR ceilings at times, but
may be rather brief. SW winds will increase to 8 to 12 kt this
morning. Winds easing back down to 4 to 8 kt after 02Z/03Z. Felton/29
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will rebuild over the waters today and remain through
Friday night. A weak frontal system will move across the area
Saturday. Systems will move through the northern portion of the
waters Sunday and Monday. High pressure will rebuild Tuesday.
Small craft advisory westerly winds in the Central and Eastern
Strait of Juan de Fuca this morning. Winds easing midday.
Winds increasing over the coastal waters Friday night with small
craft advisory winds over the weekend.
Seas still lingering at 18 to 20 feet this morning subsiding to 10
to 14 feet tonight and 8 to 12 feet Friday. Seas building Saturday
with 12 to 16 foot seas by Sunday. Seas subsiding again Monday down
to 8 to 11 feet Monday night. Felton
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Drier conditions are expected Friday into Saturday.
Another, potentially wet system is expected Sunday-Tuesday.
There is still a fairly wide range out potential outcomes in
regards to QPF amounts during this period. Snow levels will also
rise early next week towards 6500 to 7500 feet. River flooding
is not expected at this time, but rivers will need to be
monitored.
Dry conditions are then expected by the middle of next week
which are favored to persist well into the week-2 time frame.
JD/Wolcott
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Storm Warning until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of
Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern
King County-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties.
High Surf Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Grays
Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST Friday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar-
West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until noon PST today for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion