Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
699
FXUS66 KSEW 312130
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
230 PM PDT Sat May 31 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Showers will taper off tonight. Conditions will dry out
on Sunday and will persist into next week, with near normal
temperatures throughout the week. Warmer conditions and above normal
temperatures for the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A frontal system continues
to push across Western Washington this afternoon, bringing rain
to the region. Latest radar imagery shows rain continuing to push
east into the Cascades. Expect rain to taper off later tonight and
cloud cover to gradually decrease overnight into the morning
hours. Drier conditions Sunday, as high pressure resettles over
the region.
Persistent ridging over the Pacific Ocean will establish NW over
Western Washington starting on Sunday, with weak disturbances
traversing the region Monday and Tuesday. This may lead to a few
showers in the North Cascades along the Washington/Canada border
(PoPs are less than 10%). Otherwise, conditions expected to remain
dry across Western Washington.
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...An amplifying ridge over
the Pacific Ocean will be the dominating feature in the long term,
establishing NW flow over Western Washington into the weekend. This
will help deflect precipitation to the north and keep the region
dry. Deterministic models show some weak disturbances passing
through the region on Wednesday and Thursday. However, the latest
model runs have been trending drier for the middle of the week and
onwards, with PoPs being 20% or less. Temperatures will be near
normal late in the week, before trending above normal at the start
of the weekend.
29
&&
.AVIATION...The cold front is progressing through Puget Sound and is
nearly into the Cascades as of early this afternoon. In the heaviest
rain, visibilities have dropped to around 4SM, near KBFI, KPAE, and
KOLM. Lingering showers are possible behind the core of the front,
but in general, VFR to MVFR cigs have returned across the Olympic
peninsula. Expect area northerlies to persist throughout the TAF
period, but easing in speeds after 03Z to 06Z.
KSEA...Rain and MVFR cigs presently at the terminal. Five minute
observations show the surface winds have gone ESE between 9 and 13
kts, but should be a transient interaction between the front and
surface wind field. Expect a transition back to post frontal
northerlies in the next hour. Rain with give way to VCSH through
03Z, where winds will also ease in speed to around 4 to 6 kts
overnight. Another increase in northerly winds to 10 kts is favored
tomorrow afternoon.
21
&&
.MARINE...The front has begun shifting more inland, leaving post
frontal northwesterly winds in its wake across area waters. Seas are
elevated, between 8 feet and 11 feet. Inherited small craft
advisories remain in place for both the westerly surge down the
Strait of Juan de Fuca and for wind and seas over the coastal
waters. Onshore flow will increase later today into Sunday as
surface ridging builds strongly offshore behind an exiting frontal
system. This general pattern remains in place into early next week
with onshore flow gradually easing as the offshore ridge weakens
toward the middle of next week.
The persistent onshore flow will generate seas at or above 10 feet
over portions of the outer coastal waters tonight into Sunday along
with some fairly short periods for steep seas. 21
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Sunday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Sunday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion