Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
827
FXUS66 KSEW 220353
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
753 PM PST Sat Feb 21 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will spin multiple fronts crossing the region
over the weekend. These fronts will bring several rounds of
lowland rain, mountain snow and gusty winds through early next
week. Temperatures will warm to near seasonal values this
weekend onward. Active weather continues through the end of next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Starting to see the first wave of precip make its way inland,
getting as far east as the Olympics on latest radar imagery. Latest
wind obs showing some gusts in the Advisory areas /along the coast
and the Cascade Gaps/ but nothing meeting criteria just yet. Wind
speeds just upstream however suggest that Advisory level gusts
should still be on tap during the overnight hours tonight. That
said, inherited forecast remains on track with no evening update
needed.
For additional forecast details, please refer to the Previous
Discussion section below.
18
From Previous Discussion...The first of a series of frontal systems
is producing widespread lowland rain and mountain snow across
western Washington this evening. Gusty winds are also accompanying
it with gusts upwards of 45-50 mph possible for the WA Pacific
coast, Cascade gaps and Whidbey Island through the first half of
Sunday. Gusts up to 25-30 mph are possible elsewhere. Wind and
overcast skies will keep overnight lows warmer than they`ve
previously been with temps in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
The second frontal system will arrive during the early morning
hours on Sunday. Its surface low is slated to deepen to 975mb as
it churns off of the coast of Haida Gwaii. Precipitation with
this disturbance appears to be heavier as a Winter Weather
Advisory will go into effect Sunday night into Monday for the
Cascades of northern King County including Stevens Pass towards
the Cascades of Whatcom County including Mt. Baker. Snowfall
accumulation upwards of 5 to 10 inches is expected. Snow levels
will meander between 3,000 to 4,000 ft Sunday and Monday so
accumulation at Snoqualmie Pass can`t be rule out either.
Lowland rainfall will also remain into Monday but winds will
decrease in strength but continue to be breezy at times. Highs
will top out in the upper 40s to lower 50s with lows in the
upper 30s to lower 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Waves of precipitation look to continue throughout midweek with
the pattern remaining active. High temperatures will continue to
be in the upper 40s to lower 50s which is just around seasonal
average. Higher heights may try to nose their way into the
region towards the weekend as a rex block sets up over the NE
PAC. Some uncertainty exists in the upper-level pattern`s exact
evolution but we appear to be under a regime of northwesterly
flow towards the end of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...
Southerly flow aloft will continue into Sunday morning then become
southwesterly as a broad upper trough wobbles offshore. Easterly
flow continues near the surface and will weaken by midday Sunday.
Ceilings are above MVFR thresholds areawide this evening with
precipitation mostly confined to the coast and Olympic Peninsula.
Precipitation coverage will increase on Sunday morning as a frontal
system moves onshore. VFR is expected to prevail into much of Sunday
with ceilings gradually deteriorating to MVFR across the region
Sunday evening into Sunday night.
KSEA...Ceilings are likely to remain at or above 5000 feet into
early Sunday morning with precipitation increasing after around 15Z.
With low level easterly flow weakening Sunday afternoon and precip
rates increasing, there`s about a 50/50 probability of MVFR ceilings
at times Sunday afternoon with a better chance by Sunday night.
Surface winds easterly 10-15 kt overnight becoming more S/SE late
morning Sunday with some gusts of 20-25 knots at times.
27
&&
.MARINE...
A series of low pressure systems rotating around the northeastern
Pacific will swing multiple fronts across the area waters this
weekend, which will bring periods of gales to the coastal waters and
the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Strong winds will allow for seas to
build across the coastal waters today into Sunday. The dominant wave
group will be out of the south, with the outer coastal waters likely
approaching 20-25 ft by late tonight.
An active pattern will continue into the early part of the week as
another disturbance moves into the area waters on Monday. Though not
as strong as the systems this weekend, this system will likely
bringing additional headlines to the area waters for winds and seas.
High pressure will then attempt to build into the coastal waters in
its wake. Seas hovering around 10-12 ft on Monday will continue to
subside towards 5-7 ft by midweek.
14
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The threat for flooding on the Skokomish remains but the timing
has shifted dramatically. Due to periods of sustained rainfall
(moderate at times) Skokomish river is approaching minor
flooding on Monday but briefly. With the thin mountain snowpack
and existence of low elevation snow, rain on snow could produce
enough snow melt getting added to the otherwise unimpressive
forecast precipitation amounts to result in flooding. Widespread
flooding is not expected due to lower snow levels but rises on
other area rivers is expected.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 3 PM PST Sunday for San Juan County.
Winter Weather Advisory from 10 PM Sunday to 10 AM PST Monday
for Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-
Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties.
Wind Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for Foothills and Valleys
of Central King County-Foothills and Valleys of Pierce
and Southern King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of
Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Grays Harbor County
Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor
Bar.
Gale Warning until 4 PM PST Sunday for Central U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery
To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape
Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 4 AM PST Monday for
East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM PST Monday for
Admiralty Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The San
Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 10 PM PST Sunday for Puget
Sound and Hood Canal.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Sunday to 4 PM PST Monday for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion