Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
391
FXUS66 KSEW 011550
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
850 AM PDT Wed Jul 1 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Weak broad upper level trough over the area along with low level
onshore flow through Friday. This combination will produce
mostly cloudy and cool conditions with a chance for light
showers mainly over the mountains and along the north coast.
Drier conditions and a small warming trend over the holiday
weekend into early next week as the flow aloft becomes first
more zonal then southwesterly Monday. Temperatures will return
closer to normal with more sunshine.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No major changes to the forecast this morning. Satellite imagery
depicts widespread stratus overcast across the lowlands and
coast. This layer does not appear not as deep as observed
yesterday morning and reports of drizzle have been less
widespread. Think today will have a better shot at scattering
out during the afternoon but overall will be similar to the past
couple of days.
Small changes Thursday night into Friday with a weak front
dissipating off the north coast. 500 mb heights rising behind
the front getting up into the mid to upper 570 dms by 00z
Saturday. Low level onshore flow decreasing leading to a thinner
marine layer and more sunshine in the afternoon. Highs Friday in
the 60s and lower 70s. Lows in the 50s.
June 2026 will go into the books as the 7th warmest in 82 years
of records at Seattle-Tacoma airport. The average monthly
temperature was 64.0 degrees ( 1.9 degrees above normal ). Even
with only 5 days with measurable rain ( the normal is 9 days ) the
monthly rain total of 1.34 inches was just 0.11 inches below
normal. The number of days with measurable precipitation for
Seattle the first half of the year was 68. This is tied for the
4th lowest in the January through June time frame and 19 days
below the normal of 87 days. In 2025 Seattle had only 132 days
with measurable precipitation. The 6th lowest yearly total at
Seattle-Tacoma airport and 24 days less than the normal of 156
days. Felton
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Not much going on in the extended forecast. Models showing
either weak trofiness or zonal flow aloft over Western
Washington through the holiday weekend. 500 mb heights are in
the mid 570 dms and low level onshore flow is light. End result
is a couple of normal early July days with sunshine, especially
in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s inland and
mid 60s on the coast.
Small change for the first part of next week with the large
upper level ridge over the Midwest extending back over the
Rockies beginning to build northwest. Zonal flow aloft becoming
southwesterly with 500 mb heights rising slightly. A touch
warmer Monday and Tuesday with the warmest locations in the
interior getting close to 80 while the rest of the interior
remains in the 70s. Highs on the coast in the mid to upper 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...
The northwesterly flow from an upper level trough continues
through the TAF period. Widespread stratus persist this morning
with MVFR ceilings within the 2,000 to 3,000 foot range.
Improving conditions are expected in the afternoon with CIGS
rising above 3,000 feet for most areas and skies trending
scattered to broken. Stratus deck will return tonight with MVFR
conditions resuming. South to southwest winds 5 to 10 kt will
continue through the period.
KSEA...MVFR ceilings persist this morning. Ceilings will
gradually improve to VFR this afternoon with clouds trending
scattered to broken. MVFR conditions will return overnight and
into Thursday morning. South to southwest winds 5 to 10 kt will
continue through the TAF period.
&&
.MARINE...
Broad high pressure will continue over the northeast Pacific
with lower pressure inland. High pressure will weaken Thursday
as a low moves towards the British Columbia coast with a weak
front over the coastal waters. High pressure will rebuild later
Friday and remain through the weekend.
Small craft advisory remains in effect for the outer coastal
waters for choppy seas today ( 10 or 11 feet with a 9 second
period ). Seas subsiding tonight.
Small craft advisory has been issued for the Central and Eastern
Strait of Juan de Fuca with diurnally driven westerlies tonight.
Small craft advisories are possible in the evenings over the
weekend for the same reason. Felton
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Little in the way of fire weather concerns in the week ahead.
Upper level troughing maintaining cool and cloudy conditions
with high relative humidity values and a slight chance for
showers along the coast and mountains through Thursday. Drier,
sunnier, and more seasonable temperatures will begin Friday
continuing into early next week. Low level onshore flow will
moderate daytime minimum RH values and bring in good RH recovery
each night.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM PDT
Thursday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PDT this evening for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion