Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
319
FXUS66 KSEW 281649
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
949 AM PDT Tue Jul 28 2026
.SYNOPSIS...A weak frontal system passes across the region
today, bringing some reinforcing cloud cover and some light rain
chances across mostly the western and northern parts of the
area. Conditions trend drier and warmer Wednesday through
Friday, but a return of cooler and cloudier conditions are
expected for much of the area this weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...A weak frontal system
will move into the region today, providing for some breezy
southerly winds ahead of the front and some reinforcing cloud
cover across much of the region this morning. This system will
bring some light rain chances across the coastal areas and
across the northwestern portions of the area, but it won`t be
organized or strong enough to bring much in the way of impact to
the most of the interior portions of the region. The exception
could be northern Whatcom County where around a 15% chance of a
thunderstorm exists (generally north and east of Bellingham).
Behind this system, a bit of a transitional day is expected on
Wednesday with heights beginning to rise a bit but a typical
pattern of morning clouds and sun in the afternoon yielding
temperatures near normal. A bit more of an uptick in
temperatures Thursday, with Minor HeatRisk across most of the
area as afternoon high temperatures return to the mid to upper
70s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...Ensemble guidance
remains in fairly good agreement for the start of the long term
period with Friday likely to be shaping up as the warmest day of
the week across most of the area with the ridge amplifying and
daytime high temperatures reaching the lower to mid 80s across
the interior. With this warm up, HeatRisk is expected to remain
only in the Minor (Yellow) category for nearly all of the area
given the current overnight low temperature forecast. That said,
if the pattern shifts earlier enough for a longer stretch of
warming that allows for warmer overnight temperatures, this
could end up increasing the potential for areas of Moderate
HeatRisk to emerge.
Looking ahead, ensembles suggest the most likely scenario to be
a return of a cooler, cloudier and potentially showery pattern
for the weekend. This would bring temperatures near or slightly
below seasonal normals, but again keep the rain chances highest
near the coastal areas.
&&
.AVIATION...Weak front cliping the area today, with
southwesterly flow aloft. MVFR ceilings lingering along the
coast and central Kitsap Peninsula. Despite the weak system,
ceilings will lift and even scatter out to VFR levels after 19z.
KSEA...VFR ceilings above 5000 feet through the day and evning
lowering to 2000 to 3000 feet 13z-15z. Ceilings will likely remain
VFR through Wednesday. There is a 35% chance of of a brief period of
ceilings less than 3000 feet around 15z Wednesday morning. Southerly
winds 4 to 8 knots increasing to 10 to 15 knots around 18z. Winds
easing after 03z, and then are expected to shift to northerly.
71% of REFS members have this shift by 04Z.
&&
.MARINE...Weak cold front moving through the waters today. High
pressure will build in behind the front tonight then remain
over the waters through Friday. Another weak system will reach
the waters over the weekend.
Small craft advisory winds over the inland waters into the early
afternoon hours today. Small craft advisory winds likely Friday
and Saturday evening in the Strait of Juan de Fuca.
Seas generally in the 4 to 5 foot range into the weekend. Felton
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A weak front pushes across the region this
morning. While there`s around 40-50% chance of a wetting rain
across the northern coast and in the Olympics, elsewhere showers
will remain rather light. There is still around a 15% chance of
a thunderstorm, but lightning coverage is expected to be rather
limited at best if any does develop. Drier and warmer
conditions then return Wednesday through Friday, with minimum
humidity values reaching the upper 20s and approaching critical
thresholds on Friday. However, low-level flow remains onshore to
provide for good to excellent overnight recoveries, and this
looks to be a short-lived trend as the pattern shifts back to
cooler and cloudier conditions for the weekend.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for
Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-
Puget Sound and Hood Canal.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion