Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
425
FXUS66 KSEW 080403
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
803 PM PST Sat Feb 7 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will continue to move across Western
Washington today for lowland rain. Another system will move into
Oregon and southern Washington Sunday. Unsettled weather
continues early next week with split flow. There will be a brief
period of drier weather on Wednesday before additional systems
move over the area Thursday and into the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
The cold front has reached the coastline this evening and will
continue to push inland tonight. The latest radar imagery shows
rain coverage has decreased this evening, with light scattered
showers moving across the region. In addition, winds have also
subsided.
Another system will move into Oregon on Sunday but will provide
us with another wave of rain throughout the afternoon, turning
into some showers by the evening. Snow levels will fall to 3000
to 3500 feet, resulting in some light accumulations in the
mountains, including the passes. Temperatures will also slightly
cool in the upper 40s.
Weak troughing will continue over the area on Monday, with
unsettled conditions, but lingering shower activity will
continue with temperatures in the upper 40s.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ensembles continue to show a split flow pattern Tuesday into
Wednesday, keeping conditions mostly dry over western
Washington as most of the energy continues to be aimed towards
California. Weak ridging looks to build somewhat on Wednesday,
for areas of fog and stratus likely in the morning. Temperatures
continue to remain in the upper 40s and lower 50s. Active
weather will return on Thursday and into the weekend as
ensembles show multiple systems approaching western Washington.
Mazurkiewicz/29
&&
.AVIATION...
FROPA has resulted in a mixed bag of cigs across W WA this evening.
While the majority of obs sites continue to report MVFR to IFR
conditions, there are spots in the SE Sound, the Islands and along
the Strait reporting low end VFR conditions. As rain transitions to
showers overnight and low level moisture becomes widespread and
dominant, widespread MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to persist
tonight into Sunday morning. A break in activity will allow for
widespread VFR conditions to return to the area by late Sunday
morning/early Sunday afternoon and persist for much of the remainder
of the TAF period. Locations more prone to lower cigs and fog, such
as PWT and OLM, may see MVFR to IFR conditions return Sunday
evening. Southerly winds remain gusty over much of the area this
evening, but some terminals are starting to hint at speeds starting
to ease. Generally light and variable winds are still expected to
emerge overnight.
KSEA...Cigs this evening shifting back and forth from low-end VFR to
high-end MVFR /approx 2500-3000 ft/. As the front continues to shift
eastward, lingering low level moisture should be sufficient to allow
cigs to lower into more convincing MVFR conditions overnight and
remain that way until mid-morning Sunday...after such time VFR
conditions should return. Southerly winds still in the 10-15 kt range
as of this writing and while the forecast trend still shows winds
easing tonight and through the overnight hours, timing will likely
be the main issue for the 06Z issuance. Light and variable winds
turning more northerly in the late morning and early afternoon with
speeds remaining 5 kts or less. A shift to southerly winds again
late in the TAF period while speeds remain low.
18
&&
.MARINE...
A frontal system has exited most of the waters. A nominal push of
westerlies down the Strait of Juan de Fuca will keep small craft
advisory headlines going for the central and east Strait into
tonight. Otherwise, winds will ease area-wide. Seas will remain
elevated in the 9 to 12 foot range this evening then come down into
early Sunday morning over the coastal waters.
A few additional weak systems move through the region Sunday and
Monday, while winds look to remain below advisory thresholds
elevated seas in the 9 to 12 foot range are forecast to move back
into the coastal waters. Broad high pressure begins to set up on
Tuesday through mid-week for more tranquil conditions. The next more
significant system looks to arrive by the end of the week.
KC/18
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Heavier precipitation over the weekend will force
rises on the Skokomish River in Mason County over the weekend
with the river continuing to remain close to minor flood stage
on Sunday. Flooding is not expected elsewhere over the next 7
days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until midnight PST tonight for Central
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Grays Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion