Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
489
FXUS66 KSEW 210422
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
820 PM PST Fri Feb 20 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Transient ridging will exit the area on Saturday as an upper-low
sets up shop offshore. This feature will bring several rounds of
lowland rain, mountain snow and gusty winds into next week.
Temperatures are slated to warm to near seasonal values this
weekend onward.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
While clouds cover much of W WA this evening, latest satellite shows
them mainly to be high clouds with breaks here and there. Thicker
cloud cover is present near and along the coast, suggesting some mid
to low level clouds starting to filter in. Radar supports this with
some weak echoes, mainly out over the nearshore coastal waters.
Trends show these echoes moving practically due north...which may
clip portions of the coastline at times overnight, but overall more
widespread precip should hold off until Saturday.
That said, inherited forecast remains on track with no need for any
evening updates at this time. For additional forecast details,
please refer to the Previous Discussion section below.
18
From Previous Discussion...Ridge axis will shift eastwards tonight
as an upper-low sinks south out of the Gulf of Alaska. A few showers
may linger across the CWA this evening but mostly dry conditions are
favored. Cloud coverage will keep to keep overnight lows relatively
warmer than previous night`s. However, temperatures are to remain
chilly with lows in the lower to mid 30s.
A 995mb surface low will sweep a front across W WA on Saturday,
starting on the coast before sunrise and across the interior by
mid-morning. Widespread rain, mountain snow and gusty winds are
favored. Wind gusts upwards of 40 mph are possible along the
coast and Cascade gaps on Saturday as offshore gradients tighten
in response to the developing offshore low. Active conditions
are favored into Sunday as well as the upper-low swings an
additional frontal system across the area. This feature will
bring similar conditions as its predecessor though, easterly gap
winds are trending lighter. Nonetheless breezy to even gusty
conditions are in line along with another round of widespread
lowland rainfall and mountain snow.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Ensembles keep the low offshore Monday into Tuesday, with
multiple rounds of precipitation continuing during this time.
Highs will remain in the lower 50s through the long- term, right
around seasonal average for late February. The moisture content
of the precipitation will increase on Monday into Wednesday.
Hydrologic flooding impacts are becoming a possibility, mainly
for the Skokomish River but rises on area rivers may be met.
Confidence is increasing on higher snowfall rates towards
midweek, but details will continue to be ironed out as the days
progress.
41
&&
.AVIATION...
Southwest flow aloft will increase overnight then turn southerly on
Saturday as a broad upper level trough digs southward offshore.
Ceilings will lower to MVFR along the coast toward morning as
initial bands of precipitation with this system begin to rotate
onshore. Low level easterly flow will increase through the day on
Saturday with gusty easterly surface winds expected near the coast
and near gaps in terrain. Precipitation will increase and spread to
interior terminals toward midday. Ceilings may be slow to drop below
VFR across the interior as easterly flow downsloping from the
Cascades acts to dry the lower levels of the atmosphere somewhat.
KSEA...Ceilings at or above 5000 feet are likely to persist through
mid-morning Saturday. Precipitation is expected to increase after
about 18Z Saturday morning. As referenced above, increasing easterly
flow in the low levels may prevent ceilings from lowering below 3000
feet through much of Saturday. Confidence in MVFR ceilings
developing during the later half of Saturday is rather low. Surface
winds E/NE increasing overnight to 8 to 12 knots with a few gusts of
20+ knots possible Saturday morning and again toward evening.
27
&&
.MARINE...
A broad, deep upper level trough will settle over the offshore
waters this weekend and remain in place into early next week. A
series of complex surface lows rotating through the offshore and
coastal waters will lead to periods of gale force winds across the
coastal waters and in the Strait of Juan de Fuca over the weekend.
The trough will begin to weaken early next week, but active
conditions will likely continue to promote headlines for both winds
and seas.
Seas will climb back above 10 feet on Saturday and will likely
eclipse 20 feet over portions of the outer coastal waters Saturday
night into early Sunday. Seas are expected to subside back below 10
feet Monday night or Tuesday as weak high pressure attempts to
rebuild offshore.
27
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding is expected over the next seven days but
later next week chances increase significantly for flooding on
the Skokomish River. Starting this weekend through next week
there will be multiple rounds of widespread precipitation along
with warming temperatures to raise the snow level. With the
thin mountain snowpack and existence of low elevation snow, rain
on snow could produce enough snow melt getting added to the
otherwise unimpressive forecast precipitation amounts to result
in flooding.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning from 4 AM Saturday to 4 PM PST Sunday for Central
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM PST Sunday for
Admiralty Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The San
Juan Islands.
Gale Warning from midnight tonight to 4 PM PST Sunday for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion