Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
816
FXUS66 KSEW 151713
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
913 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Cold front has moved east of the Cascades early
this morning. Cool upper level trough remaining offshore through
Monday before moving inland Monday night. Next system moving
southeast Tuesday will move inland Wednesday south of the area.
Short blocked upper level pattern Wednesday night through Friday
giving Western Washington a dry spell. Next system weakening as
it approaches Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...Satellite imagery this
morning shows plenty of cold cu off the coast but the parent
low associated with the trough is moving north northwest towards
the Gulf of Alaska. This will pull the coldest post frontal air
northwest of the area through Monday. Air mass somewhat
unstable so showers remaining in the forecast with the highest
pops along the coast. Snow levels near 5000 feet only lowering
to 3500 to 4000 feet by Monday. A few inches of new snow in the
higher elevations today but by the time the snow levels drop
down to the pass levels new snow accumulations will be light.
High temperatures today, in the lower to mid 50s, could occur
this morning with little change in the temperatures throughout
the day. A little cooler Monday with highs a couple of degrees
either side of 50. Lows tonight in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
A coastal flood advisory remains in effect for the Northern
Inland Waters this morning between 8 am and noon for possible
minor coastal flooding with the combination of high tides,
lower surface pressure and winds.
Current wave forecasts are a little lower than previous
forecasts for later today into Monday morning. Have cancelled
the high surf warning for the beaches beginning at 10 am this
morning and extended the high surf advisory through Monday
morning. The beaches will still be a dangerous place to be even
with an advisory. Still could see waves in the 20 foot range
into Monday morning.
Upper level trough moving through the area Monday night keeping
a chance of showers in the forecast. Snow levels 3500 to 4000
feet but not much in the way of moisture with the trough
passage. Lows in the lower 30s to lower 40s.
Split flow aloft Tuesday with the next system digging south well
off the coast giving Western Washington a dry day. Light surface
gradients in the morning could produce areas of low clouds or
fog. Even with some afternoon sunshine highs remaining near 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...Models in good
agreement with the mid week system moving inland south of the
area. The Southwest Interior could get brushed by the northern
portion of the system Wednesday. Short lived upper level
blocking pattern setting up Wednesday night through Friday with
an upper level ridge to the north and an upper level low to the
south keeping Western Washington dry. If the models light
surface gradient scenario works out there could be areas of fog
Thursday and Friday morning.
Model solutions showing more variability Saturday as the next
system develops off the coast. No real clear winner in the
ensembles so for now will go with a broadbrush chance of rain.
Highs staying around 50 through the period. Lows in the 30s and
lower 40s cooling to the upper 20s and 30s Thursday through
Saturday.
The first two weeks of November have been quite mild. For
Seattle the average temperature of 51.6 is the 5th warmest in
82 years of records at Seattle-Tacoma airport. Saturday was the
6th day of the month with a high in the 60s. Only three
Novembers have had more 60 degree plus days, 2016 with 9 days,
1976 with 8 days and 1949 with 7 days. With the 3 am temperature
of 55 degrees this makes the 13th day in a row with a high of
at least 55 degrees in Seattle. This is the longest streak of
its kind. The previous longest, two 12 days streaks November
1-12, 2016 and November 3-14, 1949. Felton
&&
.AVIATION...Most terminals are experiencing VFR ceilings this
morning under scattered post-frontal showers, through under
heavier showers some brief periods MVFR cigs are being observed.
This will be the reigning pattern for today, until shower
coverage begins to decrease this evening. Scattered showers will
remain overnight, particularly along the coast, but the
decreasing coverage may open up some more clearing and the
potential for some patchy developing low clouds in spots by
early Monday morning. There is a 30-50% chance of MVFR cigs by
17Z Mon. Additionally, there is a low (15-20%) chance of
isolated thunderstorms, mainly along the coast this afternoon.
Breezy south/southwesterly winds are to remain today with
continued gusts of 15-25 kt before gradually decreasing tonight.
KSEA...VFR throughout the period. There is a chance (20-30%) of MVFR
cigs between 13-19Z Mon morning. Surface winds southerly but could
sway between the SW and SE at times. Winds mainly 8-12 kt before
gradually decreasing to 3-6 kt later tonight. Can`t rule out
isolated gusts near 20 kt until this afternoon.
41/62
&&
.MARINE...A vigorous front has pushed east of the waters but
elevated winds and seas will remain today. Small Craft
Advisories remain in effect for the coastal waters as well as
the northern Salish Sea waters including Admiralty Inlet and
areas north. Winds will gradually ease over the waters and later
tonight. Waves 15-18 ft this morning will rise to 20-25 ft with
a period of 15-16 sec this afternoon with the highest waves
over the offshore waters. High pressure is still on track to
build across the area on Monday allowing for a brief reprieve.
Winds are to be generally benign as seas lower to 10-12 ft,
still SCA for the coastal waters but much lower than we`ve seen
recently.
A low pressure system will form over the open northeast Pacific and
move off south and away from WA`s coastal waters Tuesday into
Wednesday before tracking into CA later on Wednesday. While somewhat
distant, this system will allow winds to turn offshore and increase,
as well as increasing waves for the next round of headlines mid-
week. Calmer conditions under high pressure are then favored
Thursday into the end of the week.
41/62
&&
.HYDROLOGY...A Flood Warning remains in effect for the
Skokomish River. The river is expected to crest today and
recede back below flood stage tonight or early Monday. The
river will remain below flood stage for the remainder of the
week.
River flooding not expected on the remainder of the rivers in
the area for the next 7 days. Felton
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST today for Lowlands of
Western Whatcom County-San Juan County.
High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST Monday for Grays Harbor
County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for West
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Monday for Admiralty Inlet-
East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern
Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Puget
Sound and Hood Canal.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion