Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
843
FXUS66 KSEW 141022
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
222 AM PST Wed Jan 14 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure will remain the predominant
weather feature into early next week resulting in continued dry
conditions. Morning fog is expected at times during this period,
with some clearing most afternoons.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Widespread stratus across
Western Washington early this morning. Fog has been slow to
develop due to the stratus, however, areas of fog will exist
this morning. Fog may be dense in some locations. Otherwise,
clouds will likely remain low for much of Puget Sound through
this afternoon, with some clearing along the coast.
The upper ridge overhead will flatten briefly into this evening
as a front weakens offshore. The ridge then rebounds Thursday
and will remain offshore through Friday. Fog may again redevelop
tonight into Thursday morning. Offshore flow will increase late
Thursday through Friday, allowing for a better chance for
clearing in the afternoon, especially on Friday. East winds
peaking Thursday night through Friday may result in gusts
ranging 15 to 25 MPH in the Cascade gaps and along the north
coast. Both high/low temperatures will need to be monitored
through this week as fog/clouds will limit daytime heating and
overnight cooling.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...The upper ridge will
dominate the pattern through early next week. Fog coverage looks
to remain more limited Saturday morning, with the potential of
more expansive AM fog development early next week. Otherwise,
dry conditions will continue for the area through Tuesday. JD
&&
.AVIATION...Low stratus has limited/slowed fog development early
this morning. Regardless, widespread IFR/LIFR cigs remain over area
terminals with visibilities ranging between 5-6SM. The latest
guidance continues to back off on IFR/LIFR probabilities for
visibility, now ranging between 20-40%. If any fog does develop this
morning, the best chances look to be between 12Z-20Z. However,
confidence is low on whether any fog will develop. Marginal
improvement expected in the afternoon to low-end MVFR. Another
chance of IFR/LIFR low stratus/fog Thursday morning.
KSEA...Low IFR stratus over the terminal continues to hinder fog
development. The latest high-res guidance has backed off on IFR/LIFR
visibilities this morning, with the latest probabilities at 20-30%.
Confidence is low on whether fog will actually materialize but
should fog develop, it will be between 12Z-20Z. Slight improvement
expected in the afternoon to low-end MVFR continuing into the
evening. Another round of IFR/LIFR low stratus/fog Thursday morning.
Calm to variable winds this morning will shift northeasterly in the
afternoon at 4-6 kt.
29
&&
.MARINE...A weak frontal system will dissipate over the Coastal
Waters later today. Surface high pressure will then strengthen
offshore and move into interior British Columbia Thursday while
a thermal trough builds along the coast. Offshore flow will
develop late Thursday and continue into the weekend at varying
intensity. This may result in gusty winds at times, mainly
offshore of Grays Harbor County, in the northern Coastal Waters,
and portions of the west and central Strait. In addition, dense
fog is expected to develop over the next few nights, which may
reduce visibilities down to 1 nautical mile or less.
Seas will build to 10 to 12 feet this afternoon as a decaying
swell train moves into the Coastal Waters. A Small Craft
Advisory remains in effect for the Coastal Waters and western
Strait of Juan de Fuca due to seas near or above 10 feet. Seas
will then gradually subside on Thursday, and range between 4 to
6 feet by Friday. JD
&&
.HYDROLOGY...The Skokomish River has dropped below flood stage
and will continue to recede through this week. No river flooding
is expected over the next 7 days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM PST this
evening for Grays Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Thursday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion