Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
469
FXUS66 KSEW 132157
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
157 PM PST Tue Jan 13 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Strong high pressure will linger throughout the rest of the week
and into the weekend. Drier conditions and light flow will lead
to periods of fog, dense at times, each night and morning across
the lowlands.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Stratus and pockets of fog have already begun developing this
afternoon, with more widespread fog expected overnight. It has
also been a very mild afternoon, with temperatures at the time
of this writing largely being in the mid to upper 50s across
western Washington.
Each night and into the morning hours through the weekend will
bring about new rounds of fog. The afternoon high temperatures
going forward will need to be watched as the impact of fog could
act to cool them down by a few degrees. This could also impact
the overnight lows, making them a little bit warmer than what is
presently forecast. Be mindful of limited visibilities at night
and in the morning during the commute times over the next
several days.
A weak system will brush the area to the north on Wednesday, but
will have very little impact on the expected weather. The ridge
will flatten only slightly. Offshore flow kicks up a little bit
on Thursday and into Thursday night, with the potential for
easterly wind gusts of 15-20 mph. Thursday would be the day,
given the offshore winds, with the best potential for more
clearing, but fog and stratus will still likely be stubborn in
the south Sound and toward the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Long term forecast indications point to the high pressure
hanging on in through the weekend. Skies may clear up to offer
more sunshine Friday into the weekend, with mild afternoon highs
in the 50s. Fog coverage is likely to expand early next week as
the high pressure shifts more inland.
21
&&
.AVIATION...
W/SW flow aloft will persist through the TAF period as an upper
level ridge remains situated over western Washington. Conditions
at the area terminals generally range between MVFR in low clouds
to IFR/LIFR in fog this afternoon. Some improvement in cigs may
still be possible in a few spots across the south Sound through
early this evening, however latest satellite trends show clouds
already starting to fill back in across much of the lowlands.
Expect IFR to LIFR cigs and visibilities to become more widespread
by late this evening with ample moisture in the low levels and
light flow promoting fog development. Areas of dense fog will
then be likely tonight into Wednesday, with fog expected to be
slow to lift on Wednesday. Areas across the central and south
Sound may not even break out. Surface winds will be light at 6
kts or less into Wednesday afternoon.
KSEA...MVFR cigs at the terminal this afternoon. There is high
confidence in fog development tonight into Wednesday morning,
with LIFR conditions potentially developing as early as 01-03Z
at the terminal, with greater confidence after 06Z. Expect fog
to be slow to lift on Wednesday, with improvement to IFR/MVFR
only expected by the afternoon hours. Winds will remain light at
3-6 kt out of the north tonight and look to become more variable
during the overnight hours.
14
&&
.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will persist across area waters tonight
into early Wednesday, before a weak frontal boundary moves into
the region and dissipates over the outer coastal waters on
Wednesday afternoon. A strong surface high over the northeastern
Pacific will then move into the interior of British Columbia on
Thursday, while a thermal trough builds along the coast. This
will bring a period of offshore flow towards the end of the
week, which may get gusty at times near the gaps in coastal
terrain.
Seas have subsided towards 7-9 ft this afternoon, however
another decaying swell train moving into the region on Wednesday
will push seas back to 10-12 ft. Seas will then gradually subside
again on Thursday and will persist between 3-6 ft Friday and
through the weekend.
Areas of dense fog will likely develop across the area waters
over the next few nights and could reduce visibilities down to 1
nautical mile or less at times.
14
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The Skokomish River has crested and continues recede this
afternoon. The river remains in Minor flood stage and will
likely fall out of flood stage later tonight. With precipitation
having ended across western Washington, flooding is no longer
expected on the rivers in Whatcom and Skagit counties, so have
cancelled the flood watches for those areas. Drier weather will
persist through much of the next week, with no additional river
flooding expected.
14
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM PST Wednesday for
Grays Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Wednesday to 1 AM PST Thursday
for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James
Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion