Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
837
FXUS66 KSEW 120358
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
758 PM PST Sun Jan 11 2026
.SYNOPSIS...An atmospheric river will produce periods of
moderate to heavy rain through Monday night. This rain, along
with high snow levels, will bring rises on many area rivers.
Flooding is expected on the Skokomish River. Strong high
pressure then builds into the region by the middle of the week,
bringing a stretch of dry conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...The next
reinforcing impulse into our atmospheric river is reaching the
coastline this afternoon and will continue to spread heavier
rainfall, low clouds, and poor visibility into the region
tonight through early Monday. The heaviest rainfall is still
expected to be aligned from the Olympics northwest into the
North Cascades. See the hydrology section for addition detail
regarding this rain and river flooding concerns.
Otherwise, the region remains wet and rather mild in the
reinforcing southwest flow aloft. Increasing winds with gusts to
35 mph will continue through early Monday for portions of the
coast and the northern interior locations. High pressure begins
to build to our south and further amplify through the day
Monday, beginning to shift the high pressure over the region and
move the precipitation back north of the area. Expect primarily
dry conditions Tuesday, though abundant low level moisture will
likely maintain cloudy and mild conditions into Tuesday. With
the mild temperatures, a few locations could approach record
highs for the date on Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Ensemble guidance
strongly favors the region remaining under the influence of a
high amplitude ridge of high pressure for the second half of the
week and potentially beyond. A weak front may approach attempt
to test the ridge and move into the region Wednesday, but this
will likely not do much other than bring some increased mixing
and mid level clouds as it approaches the coastline. Morning fog
(and the potential for afternoon fog...) remains the next
concern for midweek onward in the week as relatively light flow
sets up beneath a strengthening subsidence inversion under the
high pressure. While the current forecast favors a drying air
mass and fewer clouds late in the week, this would be the
biggest uncertainty in the long term if the fog is more
persistent. Otherwise, dry and stable conditions look to
continue through next weekend and into the start of the
following week.
&&
.AVIATION...Southwest flow aloft as a frontal system passes
through with rain showers this evening. Low ceilings/visibilities
continue as the rain pushes through the terminals this evening,
with localized IFR/LIFR conditions. Some improvement to MVFR
has taken place this evening, with MVFR expected to continue
into Monday (higher probabilities for IFR/LIFR from the Olympics
westward to the coast). Gusty winds along the coast and PAE
northwards, where gusts 25-30 kt are likely. As for the other
terminals, breezy conditions are expected with gusts to 20 kt.
KSEA...Brief break in between shower bands this evening, with a
slight chance of IFR conditions remaining with the next round
of showers pushing through 06Z. MVFR ceilings likely prevailing
late tonight into Monday. Increased S/SE winds this evening,
continuing through early Monday morning with sustained speeds of
8-12 kt and gusts to 20 kt.
29/HPR
&&
.MARINE...A weather system will stall over the waters through
Monday, bringing increased winds and waves. The strongest winds
are still on track to be along the coastal waters, West Strait,
East Strait, Northern Interior Waters, and Admiralty Inlet.
Winds will peak tonight into early Monday morning, for which
gale winds are expected. Seas will continue building today into
Monday morning to 15-18 ft. Conditions will begin to ease
throughout the day on Monday with seas hovering around 9-10 ft
on Tuesday. High pressure will begin to build over area waters
Tuesday morning and will become the prevailing feature
throughout the week. This will increase the threat for fog
development as high pressure persists over the waters. A weak
frontal system will move over the waters on Wednesday,
increasing waves to 10-13 ft, before they decrease below 10 ft
Wednesday night. Seas look to remain below 10 ft late in the
week.
29
&&
.HYDROLOGY...The Skokomish River continues to rise, and it is
expected to reach flood stage later tonight before cresting
within minor (possibly moderate) flood stage Monday. With the
heaviest rainfall still aligned across the Olympics and the
North Cascades, these areas will continue to see the highest
potential for flooding. The next surge of moisture arrives late
this evening, and additional rainfall amounts in the favored
locations will add another 2 to 4 inches with snow levels
holding high near 7000 ft. Will need to continue to closely
watch the Skagit River for potential minor flooding in the next
day or two. Once the moisture pushes north of the local area
late Monday, the region is expected to be dry through the
subsequent seven days with no additional flooding expected.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Monday for Grays Harbor
Bar.
Gale Warning until 6 AM PST Monday for Admiralty Inlet-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters
Including The San Juan Islands-West Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 10 PM PST Monday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 1 PM PST Monday for
Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan
De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Monday for Puget Sound
and Hood Canal.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion