Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
710
FXUS66 KSEW 141948
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1248 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A pair of weather systems will produce showers and unseasonably
cool conditions across Western Washington on Friday and
Saturday. Drier and gradually warmer conditions will develop
early next week as a weak upper level ridge begins to rebuild
into the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The next in series of frontal systems will spread showers and
breezy winds across Western Washington into tonight. A
secondary, stronger system will quickly follow Friday afternoon
into Friday night with a trailing upper trough settling over
the area on Saturday. High temperatures both days will be as
much as 10 to 13 degrees below normal. Along with the cool air
mass will come some instability for isolated thunderstorm
activity. The best probabilities for any storms will be on
Saturday when the upper trough axis is overhead and a fairly
potent convergence zone is likely to form Saturday afternoon.
Snow levels will fall to 3500 to 4000 feet in the Cascades on
Saturday. As of now, accumulation at pass levels looks rather
minimal, but several inches could fall higher up at places like
Paradise.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The upper trough axis will shift eastward on Sunday as low amplitude
upper ridging slowly begins to build into the area. This should
allow most of the area to dry out with temperatures trending
upward a notch...though still a bit below normal. Heights
continue to rise into Monday and Tuesday...though probably not
enough to prevent a weak system passing to our north from
clipping the region with some clouds and perhaps a couple
showers across the North Interior and coast. Looking toward the
middle of next week and beyond, ensemble height anomalies keep
persistent upper troughing in place across the western Canadian
provinces...which suggests that we`ll struggle to get any upper
ridging that lasts. It`s still spring after all. Summer can
wait.
27
&&
.AVIATION...
A shortwave ridge will move over western Washington this
afternoon with zonal flow turning more northwesterly this
evening. Mostly VFR across the area with some terminals seeing
back and forth VFR/MVFR. Scattered showers will move in this
afternoon (20z-23z) and may bring conditions down to MVFR
briefly if a shower moves over the terminal. Otherwise, VFR will
continue for most terminals. Southwesterly winds 10 to 15 knots
will see some gusts up to 20 kts throughout this afternoon.
Gusts will taper this evening with sustained winds remaining
elevated across much of the area.
Mazurkiewicz
KSEA...VFR conditions this afternoon. Southwesterly winds 10 to
15 knots with occasional gusts up to 20 kts. Showers will start
to move over the terminal around 21z, which could lower
conditions down to MVFR briefly. VFR will otherwise continue
through the majority of the day, with winds tapering off this
evening but remaining around 8 to 12 knots.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.MARINE...
Onshore flow will continue over the weekend which will allow
for daily pushes through the Strait of Juan De Fuca. Wind speeds
are expected to largely remain below small craft criteria this
afternoon, although some gusts up to 21 kts can be possible
at times this evening. Winds will increase over the coastal
waters Saturday into Sunday along with a stronger push down the
Strait that may warrant headlines.
Coastal seas 4 to 6 feet for much of today before rising to 7 to 9
feet tonight. Seas will then increase further on Saturday,
rising from 9 to 11 feet lasting throughout Sunday.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the
next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as
needed.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion