Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
852
FXUS66 KSEW 261109
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
305 AM PST Wed Nov 26 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered showers in the wake of a passing warm front will taper off
before a second system brings another round of precipitation this
afternoon. Activity will persist into Thursday with some potential
for breezy conditions in the afternoon and evening. The pattern
will trend drier and eventually cooler Friday into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Latest radar shows most of the rain activity remains to the south of
the CWA although some isolated showers may be present over portions
of western Whatcom County. Matching latest satellite imagery to
local obs suggests a tale of two layers. While much of what appears
on satellite remains to be largely high level clouds, obs and a
change from vis/ir to channels more cut out for seeing the lower
levels show that plenty of lingering moisture from the warm front has
left low-level clouds over much of the area.
Models remain in pretty tight agreement for the near term as a very
quick moving upper level ridge will afford W WA a break in the
precip for at least the morning hours. Current radar fits very well
with model output, as the aforementioned activity in northern OR will
gradually creep northward. This will re-introduce the chance for
rainfall over the southern third of the CWA this afternoon while
more widespread activity over the remaining northern two-thirds of
the area will not see precip resume until this evening. The upper
level low takes its time crossing region, consuming much of Thursday
to do so and thus keeping rain into Thursday night. This is a little
different from previous solutions where the system was expected to
leave a little earlier, however given that activity on Tuesday
started a little later than expected, this kind of domino effect is
not entirely unexpected. It is worth noting that persistent easterly
flow through the Cascades with this system could result in mixed
wintery precip for higher elevations. Still, snow levels remain high
enough where headline-worthy snow accumulations may not be much of a
concern. That said, deterministic and ensemble solutions continue to
advertise a pretty hefty ridge setting up off the coast starting
Friday morning and quickly bringing precip to an end.
Daytime highs do not really do too much in the near term with
temperatures generally in the upper 40s to lower 50s each day.
Overnight lows will benefit from the persistent cloud cover, only
getting into the lower to mid 40s. So...much like today, not much of
a diurnal spread is expected.
18
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
While the general pattern does not really change all that much for
the extended...upper level ridging over the eastern Pacific largely
influencing W WA weather and as such keeping conditions generally
dry...deterministic models are introducing some shortwaves down the
leading edge of the ridge that could result in a quick round of
rainfall here and there. Deterministic ECMWF seems to particularly
focus on Sunday to bring some moisture down into the area that could
result in a return of precip. Putting that particular solution in
perspective with the wider ensemble picture and it is easy to see
this prospect as a significant outlier as most members are convinced
of an extended dry period in store for the Pac NW. The upper level
ridge does look to start shifting eastward starting Monday with most
solutions suggesting a weak impulse behind it that could impact the
area as early as Monday afternoon...more likely Monday night...but
ensembles keep amounts light and neither deterministic solution
agrees. GFS wants to bring what seems like an exaggerated slug of
moisture with it while the ECMWF shows this system weakening as it
moves southward into the area. Given drier solutions forming the
ensemble majority, seeming more in line with the Euro solution,
NBM`s latest forecast of PoPs generally less than 50 pct for Monday
before drying out again Tuesday seems like a pretty good way to go.
Like the near term, daytime highs remain pretty static generally in
the mid 40s to around 50. It is the overnight lows that take the
spotlight as nights start to become rather brisk with temps
generally in the lower to mid 30s, however, the prospect of the
aforementioned impulse for Monday night/Tuesday morning and its
associated cloud cover will give lows a boost into the upper 30s to
lower 40s.
18
&&
.AVIATION...
Moist, westerly, flow over the region today. The air mass is stable
with light surface winds and LIFR/IFR to MVFR conditions, with
pockets of light rain or drizzle. Rain will increase in coverage
tonight as a warm front lifts north through western WA. Showers will
continue into Thursday with low pressure shifting inland. 33
KSEA...IFR to LIFR with light rain or drizzle this morning. Low
clouds will persist through much of the day with cigs in IFR to MVFR
range. Steadier rain starting 00-06Z tonight and continuing into
Thursday. SE/E wind around 5 kt. 33
&&
.MARINE...
A strong Pacific storm system will bring elevated wind
and seas to the region through Thursday. Small Craft Advisories are
in effect for the Coastal Waters, west and central strait. The flow
will turn northerly on Friday as a surface low weakens then moves
into Oregon. Offshore flow prevails through the weekend due to high
pressure over the NE Pacific. 33
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A second system is expected to bring another round this evening
through Thursday. Snow levels through Thursday evening will remain
above 5000 feet. The flood threat for most rivers remains minimal,
with the primary focus remaining the Skokomish. The current forecast
has river levels cresting just below flood stage Thursday morning,
and this may hinge on the second push of moisture expected for today
into Thursday. The flood potential Outlook for Mason County
continues to look on track and will remain unaltered at this time.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for
Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of
Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern
King County.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Thursday for
Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 4 AM PST Friday for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion