Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
614
FXUS66 KSEW 101121
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
321 AM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A front will move over Western Washington today. The front will
lift north tonight ending up in British Columbia Wednesday. A
cold front will stall offshore Wednesday into Thursday. What is
left of the front moving through Thursday night. Additional
weather systems will move through Friday through Sunday. An
upper level trough will move over the area Sunday night and Monday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Satellite imagery shows cloudy skies over Western Washington
early this morning. Doppler radar has rain out ahead of the next
system reached the coast around 3 AM/11Z. Temperatures were in
the mid 40s to lower 50s.
Juicy system moving into Western Washington today. IVT values in
the 800-1000 kg/m/s range making for a rainy day across the
area. Southwesterly winds aloft will create the usual rain
shadow northeast of the Olympics but with the air mass so moist
even that area will fill in with rain later today. In addition
to the rain, winds will be increasing later this morning into
the afternoon hours. Model 925 mb winds 40-50 knots along the
coast and just slightly weaker over the Northwest Interior
beginning around 21Z. These winds will mix down towards the
surface at times. The wind advisory for the coastal beaches and
Northwest Interior beginning at 1 PM will remain in effect for
gusts as high as 50 mph. The combination of winds, waves and
lower surface pressure around the time of high tides will
produce some minor coastal flooding along the ocean beaches.
Inundation of 1.5 to 2 feet above ground levels is possible
between 10 AM and 3 PM. Highs today in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Front hanging over Western Washington this evening before
lifting north overnight with rain chances becoming confined to
west of Puget Sound and the Northwest Interior by early
Wednesday morning. Front still close enough to keep windy
conditions going along the coast and in the Northwest Interior.
With the cloud cover and southerly winds it is going to be a
mild night with lows in the lower to mid 50s. Record high
minimums are possible.
Little change in the pattern Wednesday with the front to the
north and a cold front stalled offshore. Rain along the coast
and over the Olympics continuing with cloudy skies over most of
the remainder of the area. Breezy southerly winds continuing
throughout the day warming daytime temperatures into the 60s.
Record highs are also possible.
Cold front remaining stalled offshore Wednesday night but not
far enough off the coast to keep rain away for the coastline.
Winds easing Wednesday evening with surface gradients relaxing
and winds aloft decreasing. Plenty of cloud cover over the area
making for another mild night with lows near 50.
Stalled cold front becoming more north south oriented Thursday
as an upper level trough behind the front digs south offshore.
Front will still be close enough to give locations west of Puget
Sound more rain. Mild temperatures continuing with highs in the
upper 50s to mid 60s. Felton
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models in good agreement with the stalled front getting kicked
inland Thursday night as the flow aloft consolidates over the
Eastern Pacific. Earlier model solutions indicated more of an
atmospheric river pattern with the river getting stuck over the
area Friday and Saturday. Model solutions are still wet for the
Friday through the weekend but instead of an atmospheric river
the solutions now favor a pair of wet and windy frontal
systems Friday and again Saturday night and Sunday. Upper level
trough trailing the front for Sunday night and Monday. Snow
levels remaining above pass levels until the upper level trough
arrives Sunday night lowering the snow level down to the 3500 to
4000 foot range. Felton
&&
.AVIATION...
Ceilings will continue to fill in and lower this morning as the next
system moves in and brings the next round of rain which will persist
through much of the day today. MVFR conditions are already being
observed on the coast, and will spread to include the rest of the
area by 15Z this morning. Some periods of localized IFR conditions
cannot be ruled out. Ceilings look to gradually improve to low-end
VFR from south to north this evening for the interior terminals as
the rain begins to lift north and taper off. MVFR conditions look to
remain along the coast. South/southeasterly winds will build this
morning to around 10-15 kt and remain fairly steady through the
period.
Gusts up to 20-25 kt will be possible area-wide, with gusts
increasing up to 35 kt along the coast and north interior locations
tonight.
KSEA...VFR conditions early this morning, through deteriorating to
MVFR btwn 15-17Z this morning as rain moves through the terminal.
Low chances for IFR conditions (around 20%) through 21z. Ceilings
look to gradually raise this evening as rain tapers off, with VFR
conditions expected after around 03Z tonight. Winds remain S/SE 8-
12kt with gusts up to 20 kt possible at times this afternoon and
into tonight.
62
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will continue to increase over the area waters through this
morning and afternoon, peaking this evening and persisting through
the overnight hours tonight into early Wednesday. Winds will reach
up to gale force across the coastal waters and the East Strait of
Juan de Fuca, with Small Craft Advisories from Admiralty Inlet
through the Northern Inland Waters as well. Winds will start to
very slowly ease throughout the day Wednesday, with winds finally
easing below advisory thresholds area-wide by Wednesday evening as
the stalled front offshore causing these winds falls apart.
Seas around 9 to 10 ft will rise this morning to 16 to 19 ft this
afternoon and evening both due to the stronger winds and another
westerly swell group arriving. Seas will remain high through
Wednesday morning before slowly easing throughout the day Thursday,
through remaining above 11-13 ft.
The next stronger low pressure system begins to move into the
coastal waters and increase the area winds late Thursday night into
Friday. Winds look to peak Friday morning, with guidance still
showing 60-75% chances for storm force wind gusts over the coastal
waters. Winds look to ease slightly Friday night before another wave
brings another round of strong winds on Saturday (40-55% chc of
storm force gusts) and into Saturday night. Winds look to finally
ease below thresholds late Sunday as the low broadens and weakens as
it moves onshore.
Guidance has shifted the largest waves slightly farther south
towards southern Washington and Oregon, but remains very confident
(60-80%) in seas building above 20 ft on Friday, with GEFS and ECMWF
probabilities showing 25-35% chances of seas above 25 ft. Slight
shifts in the low tracks will determine where the dynamic fetch
effects will be maximized from these systems, with seas nearing or
exceeding 30 ft still not out of the equation, especially towards
the southern portions of the waters.
62
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
A flood watch has been issued for Mason county for the
possibility of the Skokomish River flooding with this next round
of rain. The buffer from the dry October is gone with the river
only dropping to around a foot and a half below flood stage
after this recent rain event. As mentioned earlier this is a
juicy system moving into the area today. Model 850 mb winds 40
to 50 knots out of the southwest creating good orographics over
the south slopes of the Olympics. Snow levels will also be
high, around 9000 feet. Forecasted rain amounts for the 24
hours between 4 AM today and 4 AM Wednesday along the south
slopes 2.5 to 4 inches. With the elevated snow levels and the
river running high already there is a good chance the Skokomish
river will reach flood stage this evening or in the early
morning hours Wednesday. Another round of rainfall with the
system Friday could also push the Skokomish back above flood
stage.
River flooding not expected on the other rivers in the area in
the next 7 days. Felton
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM PST Wednesday
for Grays Harbor County Coast-Island County-Lowlands of
Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish Counties-
Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-Northern Washington
Coast-San Juan County.
Flood Watch from this evening through Wednesday evening for
Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-
Middle Chehalis River Valley-Olympia and Southern Puget
Sound-Olympics-Southern Hood Canal-Willapa and Black
Hills.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 3 PM PST
this afternoon for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern
Washington Coast.
High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM PST
Wednesday for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern
Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST Wednesday for Admiralty
Inlet-Grays Harbor Bar-Northern Inland Waters Including
The San Juan Islands-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 7 PM PST Wednesday for Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out
10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for
Puget Sound and Hood Canal.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion