Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
127
FXUS66 KSEW 171547
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
847 AM PDT Wed Jun 17 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather for the next week with upper level ridge centered
offshore. Varying degrees of low level onshore flow through the
period. Low level flow becoming light northerly on the warmer
days. Ridge building and drifting closer to the area the first
part of next week for a small warming trend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The forecast this morning remains on track (with minor updates
to the aviation section). -HPR/VMT
Satellite imagery shows stratus along the coast, over the
Northwest Interior and down the Cascade foothills to about I-90.
Low level onshore flow bringing marine air into the interior
with temperatures at 3 am/10z in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Upper level ridge centered well offshore with northwesterly flow
aloft over Western Washington the next couple of days. Low level
onshore flow will weaken later today into tonight with northerly
flow in the lower levels Thursday. Stratus over the area this
morning will dissipate by 10 am/17z leaving sunny skies for the
remainder of the day. Less stratus Thursday morning with the low
level northerly flow. Highs today in the mid and upper 60s along
the coast and upper 60s to mid 70s inland. A little warmer
Thursday with highs near 70 coast and 70s to lower 80s inland.
Increasing northerly winds Thursday afternoon. Lows tonight in
the upper 40s to mid 50s.
A little bit of troughiness developing offshore Thursday night
into Friday switching the flow aloft to west southwesterly. This
will send some high clouds our way but that is about it. Light
flow continuing in the lower levels. Highs Friday near 70 along
the coast and 70s to mid 80s inland.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Upper level ridge remaining offshore through the weekend with
varying degrees of low level onshore flow ( increasing onshore
flow Saturday weakening Sunday ). Offshore ridge building and
moving closer to the area the first part of next week for a
couple of warmer days. Highs Saturday in the mid to upper 60s
coast and 70s inland, Sunday near 70 coast and 70s to mid 80s
inland. A little warmer Monday and Tuesday with the coast in the
lower to mid 70s and the warmer locations over the interior
getting close to 90 degrees. No rain in sight the next 7 days.
With the continuation of the above normal temperatures Seattle
looking at a possible top 10 and maybe a top 5 warmest June if
the trends continue. The first half of the month was the 10th
warmest in Seattle and above normal temperatures will continue
for the next week at least. Felton
&&
.AVIATION...
Mix of VFR and MVFR ceilings continue across the south interior
into south Puget Sound, as well as the coast. Satellite has the
stratus tracking north into Seattle with the south winds. As
winds turn to the west and the north from 18Z to 22Z this
afternoon, the ceilings will start to scatter for VFR
conditions for the remainder of the day. Winds speeds will
generally range 5-10 kt by this afternoon, with a low chance of
a gust to 18 kt in Puget Sound. The coast has a 50% chance of
MVFR ceilings Thursday morning, but the probabilities remain low
for the remainder of the interior. Winds to remain out of the
north/northwest Thursday as north flow aloft continues to mix
down to the surface.
KSEA...An MVFR stratus deck pushed into the terminal this
morning from the south. It will likely remain around through as
late as 21Z until winds shift to the west/northwest during the
afternoon. VFR likely the remainder of the TAF period once the
stratus clears. Afternoon winds to range around 5-10 kt with a
low chance of a gust to 18 kt. MVFR ceiling likelihood remains
low Thursday morning at 10-20%
HPR/VMT
&&
.MARINE...
Broad high pressure over the NE Pacific will keep weak high pressure
over Washington`s waters. High pressure over the waters will then
begin to weaken late Thursday as a low pressure system slowly moves
across British Columbia through Saturday. As the low pressure system
pushes to the east, broad high pressure over the NE will begin to
build east into area waters and will strengthen into early next
week.
Elevated northwesterly winds and seas are expected across the
coastal waters throughout the week. Guidance suggests a 70% chance
or higher of 21 kt winds across the coastal waters, especially the
outer coastal waters. Westerly pushes are expected through the
Strait of Juan de Fuca this weekend. However, at this time winds
look to remain below small craft thresholds, as the latest
probabilities are around 20-35%.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The return of low level onshore flow has eased fire weather
concerns for the next couple of days. Elevated fire weather
concerns return Friday and the first part of next week with a
few warmer and drier days. Minimum relative humidity values are
forecast to drop to around 30 percent Friday and during the
first part of next week. Breezy conditions in the afternoon and
evening hours combined with the lower relative humidity values
could be problematic especially with the fuels continuing to dry
out in the next week. Felton
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT Thursday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion