Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
534
FXUS66 KSEW 100345
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
745 PM PST Fri Jan 9 2026
.UPDATE...Swathes of high clouds with some clear areas has allowed
fog to already develop in prone areas. Otherwise, dry conditions
persist as upper level ridging continues to build over western
Washington. Inherited forecast is on track with no evening update
needed.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...A weak upper ridge will provide a brief period of
drier weather before the next system arrives late Saturday.
Moderate to heavy rain is expected at times Saturday night into
Monday night along with snow levels rising above pass level.
Area rivers are expected to rise with flooding expected on the
Skokomish. Drier conditions are favored to return by the middle
of next week as high pressure aloft rebuilds into the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...High pressure over
the Pac NW is giving western WA a brief dry break in the
weather. The ridge will weaken/flatten over the area on Saturday
with a return to moist westerly flow. The bulk of the
precipitation on Saturday will affect the coast and mountains.
Snow levels begin around 4,000 ft with a few inches of snow over
the higher peaks and passes. We remain under a wet pattern
moving into Sunday with ongoing moist, diffluent, W/SW flow over
the area. We`re under a warmer air mass and will see snow
levels rising to around 6,000 ft - with mostly rain in the
mountains. The highest amounts are aimed at the Olympics and
central/northern Cascades with several inches of rain expected.
Rivers will see rises and the latest guidances does show a few
rivers reaching Action Stage, with flooding expected on the
Skokomish River in Mason County. However, there`s still
potential for Minor flooding on a few rivers if precipitation
leans closer to the 90th percentile.
In addition to the wetter weather, it will also be windy on
Saturday and Sunday, particularly along the coast and Everett
northward (with south gusts to 30-40 mph). 33
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Wet weather continues on
Monday for more rain across western WA. The air mass continues
to moderate as we see snow levels rising to around 8,000 ft.
Lowland temperatures will be mild and in the 50s. Additional
rounds of heavy rain will continue to impact the coast and
mountains, leading to sharp rises on the rivers. We continue to
monitor the QPF and trends with a few rivers reaching Action
Stage (with potential for Minor flooding). Rain tapers down
Monday night as high pressure builds from the south, thus shifting
the precip band to our north and into B.C. There`s still some
lingering light precip on Tuesday morning but for the most part
we will begin to dry out - allowing the rivers to crest and
recede. High pressure remains anchored over the region through
the weekend with dry weather expected. With the ridge and light
winds, we will start to see cooler overnight lows in the 30s by
Friday morning. 33
&&
.AVIATION...Majority of terminals VFR with high clouds, although
locations that have seen some clearing and are prone to fog
development have already started to see MVFR to IFR conditions
emerge. Once established, fog will likely remain into Saturday
morning before dissipating by late morning. A weather system will
move through area terminals bringing widespread rain on Saturday,
arriving along the coast late morning and reaching interior
terminals by the afternoon. Limited visibility down to 1-3SM
expected in rain. Ceilings will gradually deteriorate in the late
evening hours towards MVFR. Breezy conditions are also expected
along the coast and north of PAE, with gusts to 30 kt possible
starting Saturday morning.
KSEA...VFR at the terminal persisting for the majority of the TAF
period. Fog will form near the vicinity overnight, but is not
expected to move into the terminal at this time. MVFR ceilings
return after 03Z Sunday. SE winds 4-6 kt this afternoon, increasing
to 8-10 kt Saturday afternoon.
29/18
&&
.MARINE...High pressure currently over the waters will shift inland
Saturday morning as a frontal system moves into the region.
Additional systems will move across the waters Sunday and Monday,
keeping marine conditions active. A Small Craft Advisory remains in
effect for the coastal waters and West Strait for the combination of
elevated seas and winds. Southerly winds will increase Saturday
morning across the coastal waters to 20-25 kt, frequently gusting to
30 kt. Occasional gusts to 35 kt are also possible. In addition,
seas will build to 12-17 ft for the coastal waters and 10-13 ft for
the West Strait. With the latest high-res guidance showing gusty
southerly winds along the Northern Interior Waters, Admiralty Inlet,
and East Strait, these locations have been added to a Small Craft
Advisory. Seas will gradually subside on Tuesday as high pressure
rebuilds over area waters into midweek.
29
&&
.HYDROLOGY...No river flooding is expected through Saturday.
Ensemble precipitation guidance continues to trend up leading to
an increased concern for potential river flooding. The main
risk of river flooding is along the Skokomish River in Mason
County, where the forecast crest is into moderate flood stage
Monday. Elsewhere, rivers will rise but confidence in rivers
reaching flood levels is less than 30%. The relative risk
appears to be highest for rivers originating from the central
and northern Cascades, where snow levels will rise from around
4000 feet to 7500-8000 feet during the event, bringing rain on
snow into the picture.
This event is likely to be followed by a relatively dry period,
allowing for rivers to recede mid to late next week.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar-
West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Saturday to 4 PM PST Sunday for
Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan
De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
Islands.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion