Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
067
FXUS66 KSEW 072251
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
251 PM PST Sat Mar 7 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A colder, wet, and windy pattern will prevail over the next 7
days. Several systems will bring an extended period of heavy
mountain snowfall, in particular through the middle of next
week. Monday and Tuesday will bring the chance for a rain/snow
mix in the lowlands and light accumulations in the foothills.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Radar imagery
continues to show light drizzle and showers occuring across the
northwestern portions of the area this afternoon. This will
continue until a frontal system moves in from the north and
traverses the area Sunday morning. This will mark the start of a
much cooler and wetter pattern as snow levels fall throughout
the day. Snow levels will start at around 5000 ft at present,
down to around 1500-2500 ft by Sunday afternoon/evening, then to
around 500 ft by early Monday morning. This will bring quick
round of snowfall to the mountains, particularly across the
northern Cascades, for which a Winter Weather Advisory is in
effect. Precipitation will then taper off for the
afternoon/early evening hours except for the development of a
post-frontal convergence zone that will looks to set up around
Stevens Pass. Elsewhere, showers will return across the area
early Monday morning and look to continue through Tuesday. With
such low snow levels, a rain/snow mix will be possible across
the lowlands, as well as light accumulations across the
foothills. Daytime temperatures well above freezing will help to
limit and melt accumulations. All in all, snowfall amounts in
the mountains will be in the 6 to 12 inch range, except up to 18
inches around Stevens Pass and through parts of the North
Cascades. 1-3 inches will be possible in the foothills. No
measurable snow is expected elsewhere.
Highs will be around 50 on Sunday, falling into mid 40s Monday
and Tuesday. Lows Sunday AM into the mid to upper 40s, falling
to mid to lower 30s Monday and Tuesday AM. Winds will also be
breezy throughout this time period, with gusts in the 20 to 30
mph range.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...The active pattern
continues as a surge of increased moisture reaches the area
Tuesday night and continues through late Thursday. Snow levels
will bounce back up to around 2000 to 3000 ft through the long
term period. This will be a longer period of heavy snowfall
across all area mountains. Several feet will be likely by the
end of the week. In addition to snow, windy conditions are
expected on Wednesday. The strongest wind gusts will be along
the Pacific coast and through the north interior. Precipitation
looks to begin to taper off Thursday into Friday but the longer
range models are hinting that the active pattern will continue.
Lastly, with the rising snow levels late week and continued
rain, the potential will increase for the Skokomish river to
rise into flood stage. See more details below in hydrology.
Temperatures look to remain fairly steady, with highs in the
upper 40s and lows in the mid 30s.
62
&&
.AVIATION...
West-northwestly flow aloft will become more westerly
into Sunday as a frontal system slides southwards. Widespread MVFR
this afternoon with areas of IFR with continued stratus. MVFR cigs
will continue for the interior terminals through Sunday morning,
with localized IFR at times. Predominantly IFR with patchy LIFR
along the coast. Steadier rain will drift southwards tonight through
Sunday morning, which may result in brief vsby reductions towards 4-
6 statute miles during this period. A convergence zone will then
develop over northern King County and southern Snohomish County
Sunday afternoon. Increased south winds through Sunday morning will
transition to more northerly for central Puget Sound in the vicinity
of the convergence zone by late morning.
KSEA...MVFR cigs will continue through Sunday morning. There remains
a low chance of IFR cigs tonight into Sunday AM, with probabilities
peaking around 25 percent. Rain will increase around 12z as a front
moves southwards, with nearby showers after 18z. MVFR cigs will lift
into VFR around 20 to 22z Sunday. South winds will remain elevated
into Sunday morning, with gusts peaking around 25 kt. Winds are
expected to transition to more N/NE late Sunday morning (between 17
to 20z) as a convergence zone develop in the vicinity of the
terminal. JD
&&
.MARINE...
Onshore flow will continue through tonight, with
flow being further enhanced into Sunday as a weather system
moves across the waters. Small Craft Advisories have been issued
for the northern inland waters due to increased south to
southwest winds through tonight. West winds will also increase
through the Strait of Juan de Fuca tonight and continue through
Sunday night, resulting in SCA wind gusts. Southwest winds will
also remain breezy for Puget Sound through Sunday morning, with
the strongest winds in the vicinity of West Point. Winds will
ease a bit Monday into Tuesday, but remain elevated,
particularly through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. South to
southwest winds will increase again on Wednesday ahead of a
stronger weather system. Additional headlines are likely
Wednesday into Thursday, with the potential for gales,
especially for the Coastal Waters, eastern Strait of Juan de
Fuca, Admiralty Inlet, and northern inland waters. Onshore flow
will then continue late week.
Seas will build to 8 to 10 feet tonight into Sunday, with 10 ft seas
mainly over the central and northern outer Coastal Waters. Seas then
build further for all Coastal Waters to 10 to 12 feet Monday and
Tuesday, and build towards 15 ft by midweek. JD
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Heavy precipitation over the Olympics, combined at times with
snow levels rising will force rises on the Skokomish River with
the potential for flooding late next week. No other river
flooding is expected during the next seven days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM to 1 PM PST Sunday for
Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades
of Whatcom and Skagit Counties.
Winter Storm Watch from Sunday afternoon through Monday
evening for Cascades of Snohomish and Northern King
Counties-Cascades of Whatcom and Skagit Counties.
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Monday to 5 PM PST Tuesday
for Cascades of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of
Southern King County.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PST Sunday for Puget Sound
and Hood Canal.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion