Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
975
FXUS66 KSEW 130305
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
805 PM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level trough will weaken today with high pressure
aloft will rebuilding across the region Monday into Tuesday for
warm and drier conditions. Another weak trough offshore will
temporarily cool temperatures midweek before a longer term
warming trend begins toward next weekend with a strong ridge of
high pressure.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The latest forecast remains on track this evening with no
updates. An upper level ridge will nudge slightly into the area
Monday into Tuesday, promoting warmer temperatures back into
the upper 70s and low 80s for most of the area Monday and
Tuesday, with Tuesday likely being the warmer day of the two.
Areas of Seattle Metro and southward will likely see Moderate
(Orange) HeatRisk on Tuesday
- with all other places across western Washington seeing Minor
(Yellow) HeatRisk.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Upper level heights will stay relatively high on Wednesday, with
latest ensembles keying into a upper level low offshore.
Guidance is struggling on the exact path and strength of this
cut off upper level low as of now. We will continue to monitor
on how this cut off low develops because it may introduce some
convection in our area, especially in the Cascades. For the
remainder of the week, it looks like strong upper level ridging
will develop which will warm temperatures up above normal -
heading into the weekend.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR across the terminals this evening with most sites remaining
VFR through the period under mostly clear skies. However,
marine stratus is slated to develop along the coast (KHQM)
around 10-12z Monday along with isolated coverage over the
interior. Stratus is favored to burn off by 16-18z allowing the
return of VFR. Light to moderate low- level onshore flow
developing this evening and overnight with north- northwest
surface winds increasing in the afternoon to around 5-12 kt
with gusts to around 20 kt for Puget Sound terminals.
KSEA...VFR throughout the period under mostly clear skies. North
to northeast winds will prevail tonight, decreasing to around 5
kt overnight. Northerly winds will continue through the TAF
period, increasing to around 7 to 12 kt Monday afternoon.
41/15
&&
.MARINE...
Surface high pressure over area waters throughout the next few days.
Diurnal westerly winds through the Strait of Juan de Fuca will be
the main theme with the next best chance of headlines on Tuesday
evening. Winds during this time appear to be SCA-level but gusts
could get to near gale strength. Coastal waters may also see wind
gusts approach 20 kt towards the end of the week on Thursday and
Friday with another low system tracking through the waters.
Seas for the majority of the forecast will remain at 4-6 ft, with
the system Thursday/Friday increasing seas to 7-8 ft with periods
around 6-8 seconds.
41
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The lack of offshore flow through the middle of the week will
keep fire weather concerns at a minimum. Warming temperatures
later in the week will begin to increase the fire weather risks
going into the weekend. An upper trough arriving around midweek
will need to be monitored in the days ahead for potential
convection and associated risks of lightning strikes with fuels
now running quite dry.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion