Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
403
FXUS66 KSEW 081629
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
928 AM PST Sat Nov 8 2025
.SYNOPSIS...
Drier and warmer conditions will settle into
western Washington over the weekend as high pressure builds
overhead. A weak system will bring light rain to the region
early next week with more ridging favored towards midweek. A
stronger and wetter system is expected to move into the Pacific
Northwest towards the end of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
No updates - see previous.
Area radars look vastly different compared to the last 24 to 48
hours or so. Upper-level ridging is building over the PNW, resulting
in drier and more stable conditions for western Washington this
weekend. Temperatures this morning range between the upper 30s to
mid 40s with patchy fog observed across the Chehalis River valley
and the Kitsap Peninsula. Aforementioned will gently progress across
the region as its axis centers over the Inland NW by Sunday. Large-
scale subsidence will bring milder conditions as highs top out in
the upper 50s, to lower 60s. Overnight lows are to bottom out in the
40s.
A weak frontal system will approach the the region Sunday night
into Monday and increase precipitation chances. While much of
the lowlands will see light amounts less than a tenth or two,
the bulk of the moisture will fall over the northwestern Olympic
Peninsula and North Cascades, where amounts could reach half an
inch or more.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Conditions look to trend drier again for both Tuesday and
Wednesday. Ensembles are in agreement on the 500 mb pattern
favoring a setup for ridging along the West Coast, shifting
eastward over the Intermountain West during this time. Active
and wet weather is set to return towards the end of next week,
but the exact details remain uncertain.
McMillian
&&
.AVIATION...An upper level ridge will continue to build offshore
today, and move inland today. High altitude winds will weaken as the
jet moves to the east, but flow just aloft from the surface will
remain out of the southwest. There remains patchy fog/mist from the
Kitsap Peninsula, down to the Southwest interior over to Hoquiam.
This layer is thin and is expected to burn off by roughly 18Z this
morning. VFR is expected elsewhere through the rest of today into
tonight, with light NE winds 4-8 kt (8 to 12 kt gusting to 20 kt
along pockets of the the coast) becoming SE in the afternoon. High
clouds will pass through later this evening into tonight. There is
some model discrepancy issues with how quickly it will clear going
into Sunday morning. With offshore flow weakening and flow weakening
aloft, this may enhance low cloud/fog formation in the south
interior (NBM and REFS give a 20-35% chance of LIFR conditions in
this area).
KSEA...There remains some vicinity fog/stratus over Puget Sound to
the southwest of the terminal this morning. This layer remains thin
and is expected to recede/dissipate to the southwest through the
morning (will likely be gone by 18Z). Skies will remain clear rest
of the day, with high clouds building in this evening. NE winds 4-8
kt will shift to the E/SE in the afternoon/evening, and become light
southerly less than 5 kt tonight. Threat for IFR/LIFR conditions
Sunday morning remains less than 15%, but will be keeping an eye
Sunday morning for possible development of fog/stratus to the
southwest (depending on how clear skies become tonight).
HPR
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the interior with lower pressure over
the coastal waters creating weak offshore flow through the
tonight. A splitting front reaches the coastal waters later Sunday
dissipating as it moves inland Sunday night. High pressure
building over the coastal waters Monday remaining in place
Tuesday. Next frontal system approaching the area Wednesday
night.
Small craft advisories remain up for the coastal waters this
morning for 10 foot seas. Seas subsiding this afternoon but
could rebuild to 10 feet later Sunday into Monday.
Increasing offshore flow creating small craft advisory
easterlies at the West Entrance to the Strait of Juan de Fuca
this afternoon through tonight and in the Central Strait
tonight. Felton
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Skokomish river dropped below flood stage early Saturday morning
and will continue to recede today. Next couple of weather
systems to reach the area not producing hydrologically
significant rainfall. The next chance for heavy rain is not
until the end of next week and no new flooding is expected for
the next seven days. Felton
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until noon PST today for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 6 AM PST
Sunday for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM PST Sunday
for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion