Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
816
FXUS66 KSEW 072300
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
400 PM PDT Wed Oct 7 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the region through Thursday. Morning
fog and stratus will continue likely until Thursday morning,
where it will become less widespread. Sunny afternoons are
expected, with seasonably warm temperatures. A front crosses the
region late Friday into Saturday, bringing another round of rain
and cooler conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Fog and low stratus continues this morning across portions of
Western Washington. This offshore gradient will also cause a
minor dip in the relative humidity this afternoon in the
Cascades and valleys. Today`s highs will be in the upper 60s.
Little change into Thursday, but slightly less extensive cloud
cover will bring an earlier clearing and slightly warmer
temperatures Thursday.
The system moving in on Friday will be weak, and the expected QPF is
minimal around a few hundredths of an inch across the Cascades and
northern portions of Puget Sound. While the precipitation won`t last
very long, the pattern change will usher in cooler temperatures,
with highs on Friday knocked back down to the low 60s. Snow levels
drop to around 5000 ft late Friday night, so the higher terrain
particularly in the North Cascades may see a dusting of snow. Expect
breezy winds along the coast, Strait of Juan de Fuca and waterfront
areas of Puget Sound on Friday.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Overnight lows will be decreasing over the weekend as the
pattern becomes focused on low pressure over the NW. Saturday
morning lows will be in the upper 30s across the Cascade passes,
and low 40s in the foothills. The lows decrease a few degrees
more come Sunday morning. Stay tuned to the forecast as it
relates to frost and freeze potential for agricultural concerns
and sensitive vegetation.
Cooler temperatures look to continue into early next week as low
pressure churns in the Gulf of Alaska. Some of the models depict
another chance at rain on Tuesday into Wednesday, but the
ensembles are mixed on exact placement of the low and resultant
weather systems.
&&
.AVIATION...
Couple areas of low stratus remain this afternoon (primarily in the
north interior and over the waters, and along the Pacific Coast).
These areas continue to see IFR and LIFR conditions this afternoon
as the mist/low cloud coverage continues to slowly erode (but may
not completely dissipate going into the overnight/Thursday morning).
A similar scenario is likely tonight/Thursday where the areas of
fog/low stratus that are able to survive the burnoff will expand at
and after sunset again as north winds become calm or light/variable.
The best chance for visibilities under a mile will be the north
interior, Strait of Juan de Fuca, Pacific Coast, and south interior.
Remaining areas still have a high chance of seeing LIFR ceilings,
most of which will clear late Thursday morning/early afternoon.
Winds will pick up out of the north for most Thursday at 5-10 kt.
KSEA...VFR conditions through the evening. Stratus to the north near
KPAE and northward is likely to reform and fill south through Puget
Sound late this evening/overnight. While the likelihood for low LIFR
visibilities has decreased, there still remains a high likelihood of
LIFR ceilings forming as early as 06Z, and persisting into 18Z
before lifting. Winds this afternoon/Thursday afternoon are out of
the north 5-10 kt, becoming 5 kt or less overnight.
HPR
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will remain situated over the coastal waters the
next few days, while a thermal trough builds northward along the
Washington coast. This will continue to promote northerly winds
across the coastal waters into Thursday. Northerly winds may
become gusty to 25 kt at times across the coastal waters off of
Grays Harbor today and Thursday afternoon, but expect the
stronger, more sustained winds to generally remain south of the
area. Onshore flow will return by Thursday evening, with
guidance indicating a 30-50% chance of westerly winds exceeding
small craft strength along the central and eastern Strait of
Juan de Fuca. A frontal system will then move into the area
waters Friday into Saturday, bringing the likelihood (>80%
chance) of small craft strength winds to the coastal waters and
the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Seas will build in the system`s
wake, with latest GEFS probabilities indicating a 60-80% chance
of seas exceeding 10 ft across the coastal waters by Friday
night.
Winds will ease and seas will gradually subside through the day
on Saturday as the system exits the area. High pressure will
then build back into the coastal waters by Sunday, while a
thermal trough expands northward along the coast again.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion