Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
266
FXUS66 KSEW 021142
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
342 AM PST Fri Jan 2 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Active weather pattern for the next week. System dissipating
over Western Washington this morning with another one brushing
the area tonight. Stronger system later Saturday into Sunday
morning could produce windy conditions for parts of the area.
Possible break Monday before additional systems reach Western
Washington in the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Satellite imagery shows cloudy skies over Western Washington
this morning. Doppler radar has echoes over mostly the eastern
half of the area. Light flow in the lower levels with some
reduced visibilities, 3 to 5 miles, in light rain and fog.
Temperatures at 3 am/11z were in the lower to mid 40s.
System dissipating over Western Washington this morning.
Easterly gradients across the Cascades weakening but shallow
layer of cool air near the pass surfaces remaining intact. Have
extended the Winter Weather Advisory for freezing rain in the
passes until noon. Could see a tenth of an inch or less of ice
accumulation. Just a chance of rain this afternoon for the area.
Highs near 50.
Large upper level low remaining off the Northern California
coast tonight. Another system spinning out of the low brushing
Western Washington this evening for another round of light
precipitation. South southwesterly flow aloft with snow levels
above the passes, 5500 to 6500 feet, overnight. With the low so
far to the southwest no winds to speak of with this feature as
well. Temperatures will only drop a few degrees with lows in
the lower to mid 40s.
Low moving north Saturday and weakening into an open trough.
Another system spinning out of the low approaching the area with
rain at times throughout the day. Highs in the lower to mid 50s.
Surface low associated with the trough moving northeast Saturday
night into Sunday morning. The models are having a hard time
latching on to a solution for the path of this feature.
Yesterday the ECMWF had the low moving inland Sunday morning
while the GFS kept the surface low offshore along 127W. The 00z
runs have flop flopped with the ECMWF keeping the low offshore
while the GFS moves the low inland Sunday morning. Ensemble
means on both models have wind gusts in the 25 to 35 mph range
late Saturday night into Sunday morning with just a small number
of solutions ( 10% or less ) indicating wind advisory speeds.
Associated front moving southwest to northeast and stalling over
the area for another round of rain Saturday night into Sunday.
Snow levels dropping to near 3500 feet Sunday with snow on the
higher passes. Lows Saturday night in the lower to mid 40s.
Highs Sunday near 50.
Coastal Flood warning in effect along the Pacific coast this
morning. Better chance for more widespread coastal flooding (
along the Pacific as well as the interior waters ) Saturday and
Sunday with lower pressure over the area and windier conditions
producing higher waves. Felton
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Extended models in pretty good agreement on the overall pattern
with a weak trough moving through Sunday night into Monday
followed by a very temporary ridge. Flow aloft switching with
systems moving into the area from the northwest instead of the
southwest beginning Tuesday. System Tuesday night into Wednesday
producing another round of breezy conditions with the ECMWF
ensemble mean gusts near 40 mph. With the storm track out of the
northwest snow levels will be lower with all of the passes
seeing snow beginning Tuesday. Temperatures near normal with
highs in the mid 40s and lows in the mid 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...
Light west to southwest flow aloft will turn southerly and
increase late tonight as an upper level trough west of Northern
California begins to lift northward toward the Pacific
Northwest. A mix of IFR/MVFR ceilings with surface visibilities
reduced to 3-5SM in light showers and/or drizzle will only
marginally improve to MVFR most areas this afternoon as
precipitation diminishes.
KSEA...A mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings in light showers and/or
drizzle this morning will improve to MVFR at best this afternoon.
Surface winds will be mostly E/SE 5 knots or less. 27
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure east of the Cascades with a strong surface
low well offshore giving low level easterly flow to the waters.
System spinning out of the low moving through tonight into
Saturday. A stronger frontal system associated with a 985 mb low
just offshore will move through the waters later Saturday into
Sunday morning. Possible break Monday before before the pattern
becomes active again in the middle of next week.
Gale watch has been issued for all the waters Saturday night
into Sunday morning as a surface low moves inland to the north
Sunday morning. Small craft advisory winds are possible over the
coastal waters next week as additional systems reach the area.
Seas 4 to 6 feet today building to 6 to 9 feet Saturday and to
10 to 15 feet Sunday. Seas subsiding under 10 feet Monday before
building back into the 10 to 14 foot range later Tuesday. Felton
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Multiple frontal systems will move through Western
Washington into next week. The Skokomish River, starting from
elevated levels, is forecast to approach flood stage Sunday
before slowly receding next week. No additional river flooding
is expected the next 7 days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon PST today for Cascades of
Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and
Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County.
Coastal Flood Watch from Saturday morning through Saturday
afternoon for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern
Washington Coast.
Coastal Flood Warning from 9 AM this morning to 1 PM PST this
afternoon for Grays Harbor County Coast.
PZ...Gale Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday morning for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Watch from late Saturday night through Sunday morning for
Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan
De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM PST Saturday for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion