Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
945
FXUS66 KSEW 150238
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
738 PM PDT Sat Mar 14 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A brief break in the active weather tonight before the active
pattern return with the system arriving tomorrow. Weather
systems will traverse across the area throughout the week. Snow
levels and temperatures will increase tomorrow night into Monday
through the week as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Showers have dissipated this evening with partly cloudy skies
under increasing high clouds. A couple spots may see patchy
fog/freezing fog tonight with the light winds, but the high
clouds will likely hinder any widespread development. The
temperatures will be on the chilly side, with most of western WA
at or below freezing tonight (temperatures in the upper 20s to
low 40s, with low 20s and teens in the mountains). A few shady
spots that stay damp tonight may see slick spots form Sunday
morning (especially if untreated).
The ridge flattens Sunday, with the next jet streak & moist
conveyor belt setting up to the north of the states in Canada.
There is a warm front that will approach the coast late Sunday
morning and afternoon. Snow levels will increase to over 9,000
ft on Sunday. The next round of precipitation does not arrive
along the coast until late Sunday morning/early afternoon, and
does not reach the remainder of the interior until late Sunday
evening. Snow will be limited to the Cascades and Olympics, and
just the peaks as the snow levels rise. A couple early showers
Sunday morning that come ashore may produce a couple
snowflakes. The precipitation continues into Monday, with a few
heavier areas of QPF being focused in the Cascades, the
Olympics and coast. There are expectations that rivers and
streams will rise with the additional rain falling on top of the
melting snow next week (see the hydrology discussion below for
further details). Highs increase into the mid and upper 40s
Sunday and Monday, with lows well above freezing Sunday and
Monday night. The coast and north interior have the potential to
see windy conditions, with gusts most likely at this time
approaching 30-35 mph.
HPR/62
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The warm and wet pattern will continue through the week, with a
couple additional rounds of moderate precipitation expected in
the mountains and the coast at times through the week. The
precipitation begins to scale back on Friday, with some
disagreement if the warm pattern continues into the weekend, or
if it becomes cooler. The temperatures will warm gradually
through the week, with lowlands seeing highs approach the upper
50s to low 60s.
HPR
&&
.AVIATION...
Northwesterly flow aloft as upper level ridging continues to build
over the eastern Pacific. Surface winds largely light and variable
with speeds less than 5 kts.
Earlier convergence zone has largely fizzled out by this point with
generally quiet conditions emerging. VFR conditions in place
areawide with patchy high clouds overhead. This should be enough to
maintain VFR conditions for most terminals for the TAF period,
however locations more prone to lower cigs, especially OLM and PWT,
will run the risk for MVFR to IFR conditions developing overnight
and into Sunday morning. VFR conditions are expected to return to
these two terminals by 18Z Sunday morning. Rain from a warm front
will reach the coast Sunday morning and the interior during the
afternoon. PoPs showing enough confidence for inclusion in the 06Z
TAFs, but precip amounts expected to be light. As such, may opt for
more of an -SHRA approach than indications of something more
stratiform. This front will lift north Sunday night. 18/33
KSEA...VFR conditions will prevail. Light variable wind becoming
S to SE by 06Z. Patchy low clouds or fog in the vicinity early
Sunday, but not much confidence on them intruding on the terminal.
Cigs lower with approach of warm front, but should still remain VFR
with light, scattered precip starting in the 21-00Z time frame.
33/18
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will shift inland tonight. Southerly
flow will increase on Sunday as a strong warm front shifts north
into southern British Columbia. Moderate south winds will
continue into Monday and Tuesday with Small Craft Advisories
possible for the interior waters. Seas will build to 10-12 ft by
Tuesday. 33
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
River flooding continues for rivers across the
Chehalis basin. Rivers currently in flood stage include the
Skookumchuck River near Bucoda /already crested and on its way
down/, and the Chehalis River near Grand Mound and at Porter. The
Chehalis and Grand Mound is cresting at the time of this writing,
getting very close to moderate flood stage but remaining just under.
Porter is still expected to crest by Sunday afternoon before
receding.
Attention will then turn to an atmospheric river expected to
move inland to the north of the region early next week before
gradually sagging southward into our area. Higher snow levels
and rain on recent snows in the mountains could bring additional
flooding concerns to portions of the area as several rivers are
forecast to rise into Action Stage. For now, the only river
forecast to reach flood stage is the Skokomish River- but river
forecasts will bear watching over the coming days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT this evening for Central
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 11 AM Sunday to 5 PM PDT Monday for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion