Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
186
FXUS66 KSEW 091703
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
903 AM PST Fri Jan 9 2026
.SYNOPSIS...A weak upper ridge will provide a brief period of
drier weather before the next system arrives late Saturday.
Moderate to heavy rain is expected at times Saturday night into
Monday night along with snow levels rising above pass level.
Area rivers are expected to rise with flooding expected on the
Skokomish. Drier conditions are favored to return by the middle
of next week as high pressure aloft rebuilds into the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...A weak upper ridge will
slide onshore today for a brief trend toward drier conditions.
The ridge axis will move east of the Cascades tonight and
another frontal system will approach the coast Saturday morning.
Rain will spread inland Saturday evening as a warm front lifts
northward toward the area. Snow levels will rise above all of
the passes on Sunday as the warm front lifts northward and an
atmospheric river takes aim at British Columbia and Western
Washington. Heaviest precipitation, initially, will be along the
coast, in the Olympics, and across the North Cascades.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Periods of moderate to locally heavy rainfall will continue
into Monday as the axis of heaviest precip is projected to shift
southward slightly. In addition to the precipitation, a period
of breezy to locally windy conditions is expected Sunday night
into Monday. With the heavier precip, there will also be an
elevated landslide risk. Ensembles are in good agreement with a
shift toward drier and rather mild conditions taking hold around
the middle of next week as high amplitude upper ridging takes
up residence along the west coast of the lower 48.
27
&&
.AVIATION...Upper level ridge centered offshore moving through
the area today into tonight. Ridge axis east of the Cascades by
06z Saturday. Front moving into the area later Saturday.
Northwesterly flow aloft switching to southwesterly tonight. In
the lower levels, light onshore flow becoming light offshore
flow this evening.
A mix of ceilings this morning, however widespread VFR conditions
are expected this afternoon with some high clouds. Areas of fog
forming after 06z in the Southwest Interior and south Puget Sound
with visibility below a mile until around 18z Saturday.
KSEA...MVFR ceilings this morning. Stratus layer scattering out mid
afternoon, leaving just some high clouds. Fog in the vicinity of the
terminal 12z-18z, but not expecting it to make it to the terminal at
this time. Southerly wind 6 to 10 kt becoming southeast 4 to 6 kt
after 00z. Felton/29
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the waters today and tonight will weaken Saturday
as a front moves through the area. Additional systems will move
through the northern portion of the waters Sunday and Monday. High
pressure will rebuild Tuesday.
Small craft advisories for the coastal waters and West Entrance to
the Strait of Juan de Fuca for seas 10 to 12 feet today and for a
combination of southeasterly winds 20 to 25 kt and seas building to
12 to 17 feet tonight through Saturday into Saturday night. Small
craft advisory winds continuing through Sunday night before
subsiding Monday. Seas slowly subsiding Sunday through Monday but
not dropping to near 10 feet until Tuesday.
Felton
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding is expected through Saturday. Ensemble
precipitation guidance continues to trend up leading to an
increased concern for potential river flooding. The main risk
of river flooding is along the Skokomish River in Mason County,
where the forecast crest is just below moderate flood stage
Monday. Elsewhere, rivers will rise but confidence in rivers
reaching flood levels is less than 30%. The relative risk
appears to be highest for rivers originating from the central
and northern Cascades, where snow levels will rise from around
4000 feet to 7500-8000 feet during the event, bringing rain on
snow into the picture.
This event is likely to be followed by a relatively dry period,
allowing for rivers to recede mid to late next week.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar-
West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion