Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
914
FXUS66 KSEW 050334
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
834 PM PDT Fri Sep 4 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Broad low pressure over the Pacific Northwest will
keep chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
forecast through Sunday. Drier and warmer conditions expected
for the beginning of next week. A weak system will brush the
area Thursday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...Low pressure will
remain the dominant feature over the Pacific Northwest through
this weekend. Satellite imagery shows the low center just off
the coast of central Oregon and will likely remain there as it
slowly weakens through the weekend. Low is stacked vertically,
and the upper level low supporting it will also slowly fill in
through the weekend. Scattered showers are slowly dissipating
this evening after an active convective stretch the last few
hours across portions of Puget Sound. Drier conditions are
expected tonight into Saturday morning before the return of
additional shower and thunderstorm potential. The best chances
for thunderstorms remain across the Cascade and Olympic
Mountains, as well as portions of the Cascade foothills on
Saturday afternoon and evening. Some activity may drift again
into the lowlands late afternoon with more southeast flow
aloft. Going into Sunday, chances for showers become more
confined to the higher terrain and a marginal (15% or less)
chance for isolated thunderstorms.
Skies generally remain partly to mostly cloudy, with high
temperatures in the mid 60s to low 70s. Lows in the upper 40s to
mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Models remain consistent
on finally ejecting the upper level trough out to the east
Sunday night into Monday. Following, that will leave western
Washington generally in dry, split to northwesterly flow as
ridging tries to develop while an upper level low develops off
the coast of California. This will allow for more sunny and
drier conditions across the area for the start of next week,
with temperatures expected to rise into the mid to upper 70s,
perhaps near 80 in some spots by Wednesday. The pattern gets
more uncertain as the evolution depends on the interaction
between a develop upper level trough coming down along the
British Columbia coast and the remnants of Hurricane Marie
getting pulled up and east towards the west coast. Temperatures
look to trend cooler, back towards the low 70s, and chance for
rain will start to return to the forecast late Thursday and into
Friday.
JD/62
&&
.AVIATION...Variable flow aloft continues as an upper level low
moves slowly over western Washington. VFR conditions likely
continuing throughout the rest of the evening. The thunderstorm
threat has subsided here as lingering showers wane. N/NE winds
generally around 4 to 8 knots into Saturday morning. Low clouds may
develop around lower prone terminals briefly early Saturday morning,
but chances remain low (20%) of any impact to conditions
(MVFR/IFR).
KSEA...VFR conditions this evening with some mid to high level
clouds around. Winds variable, turning to N/NE at times and
remaining generally light (3 to 6 kts) tonight. Winds will maintain
more of a north direction by Saturday morning, with conditions
remaining VFR.
41
&&
.MARINE...No significant marine conditions expected on the whole,
with winds and seas largely remaining short of any advisory
criteria. The thunderstorm threat has come to an end this evening as
benign conditions have rebounded. Otherwise, northerly winds develop
over the waters this weekend into next week. A marginal westerly
push through the Strait of Juan de Fuca around Monday looks to be
the next potential period of advisory strength conditions. Seas will
generally hold around 4 to 5 ft over the coastal waters, with a
mostly short period component this weekend and into the start of
next week.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion