Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
591
FXUS66 KSEW 131706
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
906 AM PST Fri Nov 13 2026
.SYNOPSIS...A series of frontal systems will bring a return of
widespread rain and occasionally windy conditions today through
the weekend. A trend toward drier and cooler conditions are
expected toward the middle portion of next week as the storm
track shifts south of Western Washington.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...Based on area tide gauges,
we`re seeing minor to moderate coastal flooding with high tide
this morning. Pressure is a little higher on Saturday but will
evaluate if more headlines are needed. 33
Previous discussion...Rain is spreading onto the coast this
morning ahead of the first of a couple frontal systems that will
impact the region in the days ahead. Along with the rain,
breezy to locally windy conditions will develop along the coast,
the North Interior, and near the Cascade gaps. A combination of
high tide and lower atmospheric pressure will contribute to
minor to moderate coastal flooding today as well. Larger seas
building to around 20 feet will reach the coast where a high
surf advisory remains in effect. Rain will turn to showers by
tonight as an upper trough axis shifts onshore.
A second and stronger frontal system will move into the area
later Saturday into Saturday night. QPF remains in the same
ballpark as previous estimates with around 1.5 to 2 inches for
much of the coast, 3+ inches on the south facing slopes of the
Olympics, and somewhere between 0.50 and 1 inch for much of the
interior lowlands. NBM probabilities of wind gusts exceeding 50
mph along portions of the coast are around 60 to 80 percent for
Saturday afternoon/evening with another bullseye of 50 to 60
percent probabilities near the east entrance to the strait later
Saturday night. Elsewhere, peak wind gusts Saturday night will
be roughly 30 to 40 mph. Post-frontal showers continue into
Sunday with winds easing.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...An upper trough
will move into the area Sunday night and Monday and introduce a
notably cooler air mass from what we`ve seen recently. QPF will
be light by this time, but snow levels will dip to around 4000
feet. Models are continuing the trend of the next system toward
the middle of next week taking a more southern track and just
clipping the far southern portion of the CWA. Beyond that, upper
ridging is on track to bring a period of drier weather to round
out the remainder of the week. And this time of year, that
probably means some fog and cool temperatures.
27
&&
.AVIATION...South flow aloft continues into tonight as a frontal
system moves across western Washington. Steadier light rain
progresses eastwards across Puget Sound through the afternoon.
Predominantly VFR cigs through this afternoon with brief MVFR
conditions at times, mainly for the Olympic Peninsula. Isolated
showers develop after the front tonight. VFR favored for most
locations tonight into Saturday AM with areas of MVFR at times for
the Olympic Peninsula and coast. Surface winds generally remain
south-southeast through the period, with localized gusts to 25 kt
along the coast.
KSEA...VFR conditions with light rain through approximately 00z,
with a few rain showers lingering tonight into Saturday AM. Cigs
through the afternoon ranging 050-090. Mainly low-end VFR cigs
Saturday AM, with a 25-30% chance of MVFR cigs from 09z-15z.
S/SW surface winds fluctuating between 4 to 10 kts. JD
&&
.MARINE...SCAs will remain for the East Strait, Admiralty Inlet
and Grays Harbor Bar well into tonight. A SCA has been issued
for the West Strait as well for the remainder of the morning
before dropping off this afternoon due to ESE winds reaching
criteria. Gales gusts are firmly in place across the coastal
waters as an occasional storm force gust cannot be ruled out,
particularly over the outer coastal waters. SCA winds look to
potentially pick up later tonight into Saturday morning for the
Northern Inland waters
Winds over the inner waters will remain elevated into Saturday
morning, winds over the coastal waters will briefly decrease as
gales transition to more Small Craft strength. However, the next
frontal system is set to arrive late Saturday afternoon as a sub 970
mb low generates very strong southerly winds. REFS probabilities are
now showing greater than 90% chance of Storm Force gusts being met
over the outer and inner coastal waters while the NBM is showing 50-
60% into Saturday night. For this reason a Storm Force Watch has
been issued for the Coastal Waters, with additional Gale Watches
issued for portions of the interior waters. Small Craft winds are
favored to continue on Sunday, at least over the coastal waters and
portions of the inland waters Conditions are favored to calm by
Monday, with potential for continued windy conditions over the
waters returning by Tuesday.
Today`s system will bring very large seas to the Washington coast,
with high confidence in waves building to 20-26 ft over the coastal
waters by this afternoon. These large waves will also be very
energetic, with a dominant period of 18 to 20 seconds. Seas will
remain elevated through Saturday morning and will briefly ease a bit
into early Sunday, remaining between 14 to 18 feet. Another system
will send another round of large, long period waves on Sunday with
another round of waves likely 20-22 ft or higher through Monday
morning. Seas look to ease a bit after Monday, but will likely stay
in the 12-15 foot range heading into the middle of next week.
JD/41
&&
.HYDROLOGY...The potential for flooding continues on the
Skokomish River with periods of heavy rainfall Friday through
the weekend. A Flood Watch remains in effect.
River flooding is not expected on the other rivers in the area
in the next 7 days at this time.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Coastal Flood Warning until noon PST today for San Juan County.
Coastal Flood Advisory until noon PST today for City of
Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap
County-Island County-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King
Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern
Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-
Northern Hood Canal-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-
Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern Hood
Canal.
Flood Watch through late Saturday night for Olympia and
Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Southern Hood Canal.
High Surf Advisory from noon today to 7 AM PST Saturday for
Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM PST this afternoon for Grays
Harbor County Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for Grays Harbor
Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Saturday for West Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Saturday for Admiralty
Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for
Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan
De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
Islands.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST
Saturday for Northern Inland Waters Including The San
Juan Islands.
Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM PST
Saturday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To
James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island
To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James
Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
night for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To
James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island
To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James
Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion