Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
043
FXUS66 KSEW 051659
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
959 AM PDT Sun Jul 5 2026
.SYNOPSIS...A weak ridge of high pressure will bring warmer and
drier conditions to Western Washington into Tuesday. A weak
frontal system will arrive on Wednesday with cooler temperatures
and a little rain for parts of the area. Onshore flow will keep
temperatures near normal for the second half of the week with
areas of night and morning clouds.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...A weak upper level ridge
will begin to build into the region today. Light onshore flow
continues near the surface. Areas of morning clouds continue to
slowly clear with the afternoon featuring mostly sunny skies
with temperatures bouncing back to near seasonal averages for
the first time in more than a week. A weak upper ridge axis will
shift inland early Monday. With modest height rises and
continued light onshore flow, this will allow interior
temperatures to rise a few more degrees with areas from Seattle
metro southward crossing the 80 degree threshold. The warming
trend will be short with onshore flow ramping up Monday night
ahead of a weak front approaching offshore. Tuesday will likely
remain cloudy along the coast, but interior areas should see
some afternoon sun along with several degrees of cooling.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...A weak frontal
system will drag onshore Tuesday night into Wednesday. The bulk
of the light rainfall with this system will likely fall on the
Olympic Peninsula and interior areas from around Everett
northward. We may get a weak convergence zone Wednesday
afternoon as well.
Looking further ahead into the second half of the week, the best
description I can come up with is...seasonal. Western Washington
will remain sandwiched between strong upper ridging over the
Desert Southwest and anomalous upper troughing over British
Columbia. This essentially keeps us in a persistent onshore flow
pattern with 500 millibar heights that never really get much
above the mid to upper 570s decameters. So, with that said, one
would typically expect varying amounts of night and morning
clouds, afternoon sun, and temperatures hovering within 2 to 4
degrees of normal for early July.
JD/27
&&
.AVIATION...MVFR conditions have returned to KSEW and KBFI this
morning, and this is forecast to clear to VFR ceilings later this
morning between 18Z-20Z. KBFI is also seeing impacts from smoke this
morning, and this could be a trend through today due to the holiday
weekend. Generally light NE to variable winds early this morning,
turning WNW in the afternoon to 5-12 kt. Winds may get somewhat
breezy this evening along Puget Sound, with a few gusts to 15 kt
possible. The coast will have the highest probabilities to return to
MVFR ceilings first tonight, and there is a 60-80% chance for IFR
ceilings between 14Z-16Z Monday. Inland terminals have a lower
chance, near 15-30%.
KSEA...Low MVFR ceilings are present and will improve later this
morning. Breezy northerly winds will turn NW this afternoon.
Sustained winds of 10-15 kt and gusts reaching 15-20 kt are
expected, especially between 23Z-04Z. Winds turn NE after 04Z and
start to weaken.
29
&&
.MARINE...A rather stagnant weather pattern will continue for
Washiington`s waters through the forecast period. Broad high
pressure over the northeast Pacific and lower pressure inland
will maintain a pattern of onshore flow. This will result in
increased westerly winds through the Strait of Juan de Fuca each
evening, some having the potential to reach advisory criteria.
Sunday`s westerlies are expected to remain advisory thresholds,
as current probabilities rest at 20% or less. Starting Monday,
guidance has moderate to high chances (50-95%) for winds through
the Strait of Juan de Fuca reaching small craft advisory
thresholds, possibly warranting additional headlines throughout
the week. Moreover, a combination of winds and seas will small
craft advisory conditions to the coastal waters this evening. A
weak front will move over the waters Tuesday evening/Wednesday
morning. This will slightly weaken high pressure over the
waters, but it is expected to quickly rebuild behind the front.
29
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Low-level onshore flow will continue through
the week. This will keep good overnight relative humidity
recoveries in the forecast and help subdue fire weather concerns
despite somewhat warmer temperatures. Another front in the
middle of the week will bring a chance of rain to the area
keeping fire weather concerns at a minimum.
We already have small fires cropping up in the Olympics and
Cascades even without elevated fire weather conditions. If you
are in the mountains the next few days please be extra careful.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM PDT
Monday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To
James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island
To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James
Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion