Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
519
FXUS66 KSEW 081636
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
936 AM PDT Thu Oct 8 2026
.UPDATE...
Fog is showing no signs of stopping this morning with satellite
and webcams still showing dense fog across portions of the area.
Advisories for both land and marine have been extended through
the remainder of the morning.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will nose into the area today for warmer afternoon
temperatures and sunny skies. The next chance for rain will be
on Friday and Saturday as a frontal system moves through the
region. Cooler temperatures will linger in the wake of this
system into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Areas of fog and stratus are present on the satellite imagery
early this morning from King County north along the water and
along the Pacific coast. The fog and stratus should be less
extensive this morning compared to the last few days. Once this
dissipates later this morning, afternoon high temperatures will
climb to the low to mid 70s.
The warm conditions are short lived as a weak frontal system
will be arriving Friday into Saturday and will usher in a
pattern change. The front isn`t expected to be strong, but will
bring about a round of rain to western Washington as well as
breezy southwesterly winds throughout the Puget Sound region.
Westerly wind will also be elevated through the Strait of Juan
de Fuca. The QPF is expected to be around a quarter to half
inch in the Cascades, with a few hundredths to a tenth
elsewhere. This is going to be a cooler system, so the snow
levels will fall to around 4,500-5,000 ft Friday night into
Saturday and bring an inch of snow or less primarily to the
North Cascades. Saturday morning lows will be in the low 40s for
much of the Puget Sound area, but in the Cascades and adjacent
foothills, lows in the mid to upper 30s are expected.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Drier but cooler conditions are expected Saturday night into
Sunday. Sunday morning lows will be a bit cooler than Saturday
with much of the area seeing the upper 30s and low 40s. Sinking
cold air in the Cascade valleys could drop the lows down to
around freezing. The probabilities for seeing lows 32 degrees or
less for Sunday morning are about 30%, most notably in the
Cascade valleys of Snohomish and Skagit Counties as well as the
Mount Rainier area. This will be of note for frost and freeze
impacts for the agricultural realm and for those with sensitive
vegetation. The lows increase into Monday and beyond, but the
afternoon highs through the middle of the week will be in the
low to mid 60s.
The ensembles generally favor west CONUS troughing through
Wednesday, with another chance at some light rain come Tuesday.
Things start diverging in the models a little bit after
Wednesday in a competition between the trough lingering and high
pressure attempting to return to the area.
21
&&
.AVIATION...
Northwesterly flow aloft will become more westerly by this
evening as an upper ridge over the area flattens and an upper
trough drops down into British Columbia. Another round of fog/
low stratus will be the main concern for area terminals
throughout this morning, with latest satellite imagery already
showing fog present along the Pacific Coast, portions of the
central Sound, and across the North Interior. Conditions
continue to remain IFR/LIFR for any terminals in fog. With the
layer of moisture being shallower than previous days, expect fog
and low clouds to scatter out by 18Z. VFR conditions will then
prevail this afternoon and evening, with only high clouds
streaming in overhead ahead of a frontal system on Friday. Light
and variable winds this morning will pick up from the N/NW and
persist between 4 to 8 knots this afternoon and evening.
KSEA...LIFR conditions continue this morning with fog at the
terminal. Conditions will gradually improve through the morning
hours, with fog expected to scatter by 18Z for a return to VFR
conditions for the remainder of the day. Winds are light and
variable this morning, but will pick up from the N/NW generally
around 4 to 8 knots this afternoon and evening.
14/Mazurkiewicz
&&
.MARINE...
Fog is the primary marine impact over the area waters early
this morning as areas of dense fog have developed along the
Pacific Coast and across much of the inner waters. Expect areas
of fog to reduce visibilities down to 1NM or less. Visibilities
will then improve as fog scatters this afternoon.
High pressure will remain situated over the coastal waters
today while a thermal trough pushes inland. The return of
onshore flow will bring small craft westerlies to the central
and eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca this afternoon and evening. A
frontal system will then move across the area waters on Friday,
bringing gusty winds and building seas. The northern and
central coastal waters and the Strait of Juan de Fuca will
likely see the strongest winds, with latest REFS guidance
indicating roughly a 50-75% chance of gusts exceeding 34 kt
across the coastal waters and a 30-50% chance of gusts exceeding
34 kt along the central and eastern Strait. As guidance has
continued to trend upward, have gone ahead and issued Gale
Watches for these areas. Seas will build in the system`s wake,
with latest GEFS probabilities indicating a 60-80% likelihood of
seas exceeding 12 ft across the coastal waters by Friday night.
Winds will ease and seas will gradually subside through the day
on Saturday as the system exits the area. High pressure will
then build back into the coastal waters by Sunday, while a
thermal trough expands northward along the coast. This pattern
will persist into Monday, bringing periods of offshore flow back
to the area waters. Seas will persist between 5-8 ft. The next
frontal system then looks to move into the area waters on
Tuesday.
14/62
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for Downtown
Everett / Marysville Area-Lowlands of Western Skagit and
Northwestern Snohomish Counties.
Dense Fog Advisory until 1 PM PDT this afternoon for Grays
Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
Friday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Watch from late tonight through Friday evening for
Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
Fuca.
Dense Fog Advisory until noon PDT today for Admiralty Inlet-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San
Juan Islands-Puget Sound and Hood Canal.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion