Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
415
FXUS66 KSEW 270444
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
944 PM PDT Tue May 26 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low will meander across the region this week
with recurring spells of showers. Transient ridging will bring
above average temperatures for both Wednesday and Thursday
before a subsequent cool down into the weekend. Models are
hinting at additional ridging early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper-low is positioned over much of the US West Coast this
evening. As a result, showers have been observed so far today
across W WA. However, the aforementioned low will drift
southward tonight as an upper-ridge off the NE PAC noses into
the area. Conditions will trend drier tonight but low-level
moisture will remain. Low clouds and fog are forecast -
primarily around South Sound and Chehalis River valley but also
areas of the interior. Overnight lows are expected in the 40s to
near 50 F.
As mentioned, upper-ridging will be the main player on Wednesday
and Thursday. Temperatures are forecast to warm above average
with highs in the lower 70s to near 80 F on Wednesday and upper
70s to lower 80s on Thursday. Wrap-around moisture from the west
coast upper-low looks to stream into the region Thursday
afternoon. Here we could see elevated thunderstorms across the
Cascades as the SPC has a general risk outlook for this day.
Overnight lows generally in the 40s to lower 50s.
41
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Models in good agreement with a series of shortwaves moving
through the area over the weekend. Not much in the way of
moisture with the troughs but the low level flow will remain
onshore. This will keep clouds in the forecast with highs in the
lower to mid 60s Saturday and mid to upper 60s Sunday. Upper
level ridge building into the area Monday as daytime
temperatures warm into the 70s to lower 80s.
Lows near 50 Friday morning. A little cooler Saturday, Sunday
and Monday mornings with the colder locations getting down to
near 40. Mid to upper 40s for the remainder of the area.
41
&&
.AVIATION...
Showers coming to an end over the local area with light flow
aloft as the upper low drops south and east of the area. This is
bringing some clearing across western Washington with just a few
pockets of ceilings remaining. Expect clouds to redevelop with
MVFR conditions along the coast and a few patches of MVFR
ceilings in the interior. Improvement through the morning hours
Wednesday with widespread VFR conditions area-wide Wednesday
afternoon.
KSEA...VFR conditions this evening with broken to scattered mid
level deck around 4500 ft. North winds around 7 kt this evening,
easing overnight. Could see a few patchy MVFR ceilings around
the terminal area toward 12z, but expect VFR ceilings to likely
prevail. VFR with scattering clouds through the day Wednesday as
north surface winds increase to 10 kt. Cullen
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure is rebuilding over the northeastern Pacific this
evening. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the
coastal waters due to seas and winds. With the transition back
to northwesterly winds, steep seas will also return to the
coastal waters late Tuesday into Wednesday as the predominant
wave group`s period becomes 10 seconds. The arrival of a 7-10 ft
swell with a very long period of 16-19 seconds on Thursday will
bring confused seas as significant wave heights builds back to
11-13 ft. Seas then again subside slowly Friday into the
weekend. Expect a stronger west push Thursday and Friday nights
through the Strait of Juan de Fuca with a 50-60% chance of gales
in the central and portions of the eastern Strait. Cullen
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the
next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as
needed.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Wednesday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out
10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Wednesday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion