Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
781
FXUS66 KSEW 140956
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
256 AM PDT Sun Jun 14 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A dry and warm airmass associated with a strong upper level ridge
will settle over western Washington through Monday.
Temperatures peaking in the 80s and 90s will bring widespread
Moderate HeatRisk to the region today and again Monday.
Offshore flow will bring lower relative humidities and elevated
fire danger. The ridge will weaken on Tuesday, resulting in
increased onshore flow and seasonable temperatures through the
rest of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Infrared satellite imagery depicts high level cirrus clouds
advecting in from British Columbia. Winds have remained light
overnight with offshore flow along the coast. A strong upper
level ridge remains anchored offshore, bringing hot and dry
conditions through Monday. Temperatures will climb into the 80s
and 90s today and Monday during peak heating hours as a thermal
trough moves in, hottest into the mid 90s in interior southwest
Washington. Widespread Moderate HeatRisk is expected both Sunday
and Monday. Record temperatures will likely be broken today and
again on Monday along the I-5 corridor, particularly in Seattle
and Olympia. Little to no overnight relief is expected with
temperatures only briefly dropping into the 50s and 60s for lows
both tonight and Monday night. Record warm low temperatures are
also likely to be broken in Seattle and Olympia as temperatures
along I-5 from Everett to Olympia may only drop to 65 degrees
overnight tonight and Monday night. Know the signs of heat
related illnesses and take precautions to stay safe from the
heat! Vulnerable populations and those who do not have access to
air conditioning are especially susceptible to heat. The only
exception to the heat on Monday will be when the thermal trough
will shifts eastward Sunday night into Monday, bringing a
reprieve from the heat for the coast with highs in the 70s.
The upper level ridge flattens late Monday into Tuesday,
allowing for a brief break from the heat. Tuesday`s highs will
be much closer to normal for this time of the year as onshore
flow ensues with zonal flow aloft. Confidence is low but with
onshore flow, a Puget Sound Convergence Zone could set up late
in the day Tuesday. Have kept 10-20% chances for rain (mainly
drizzle) from the NBM in the forecast for east of Puget Sound
for Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Onshore flow continues throughout the week with zonal flow aloft
and near normal to slightly warmer than normal temperatures. The
upper level ridge may amplify slightly again by mid to late
week, with forecast highs generally in the 70s to low 80s. We
could see a return to temperatures in the low to mid 80s along
the I-5 corridor depending on how amplified the upper level
ridge gets. Chances for precipitation are very low (less than
10%) mid to late in the week given the persistent dry and
stable airmass.
&&
.AVIATION...High pressure and offshore flow will lead to dry
and stable conditions across western Washington. VFR conditions
will prevail. 33
KSEA...VFR today with high clouds. N winds gusting to 10-15 kt
this afternoon and evening. 33
&&
.MARINE... Offshore flow today with a thermal trough along the
coast. The thermal trough will shift east of the Cascades on
Monday with a return to onshore flow. Expect strong winds with
possible gales through the strait of Juan de Fuca Monday night
and Tuesday. Onshore flow prevails through the rest of the week
with strongest winds and highest seas over the outer coastal
waters. Highest winds through the strait will be during the
afternoon and evening hours each day. 33
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions and much warmer than normal temperatures over
the next two days will bring elevated fire weather concerns
through Monday. A persistent upper level ridge remains over the
area with offshore flow today. Widespread high temperatures in
the 80s and 90s are expected today and Monday with low relative
humidity values. The lowest minimum relative humidity values are
expected over the southwest Interior where humidities may drop
to 15 to 20 percent both this afternoon and again on Monday
afternoon. Even though fine fuels have not reached critical
thresholds, this rapid drying will create elevated fire concerns
especially for dry grassy/shrubby areas, as well as piles of
dead fuels. Offshore flow today into Monday will prevent good
relative humidity recoveries overnight. Relative humidities
improve with the return of onshore flow Tuesday. Low level
onshore flow and seasonable temperatures throughout the week
will ease fire weather concerns.
&&
.CLIMATE...
SeaTac is forecast to reach 87-89 degrees today, June 14, which
would break the current record of 86 degrees set back in 1988.
NBM probabilities for highs of 90 degrees or warmer at SeaTac
today are at 3%. SeaTac is forecast to reach 89-91 degrees on
Monday, June 15, which would break the current record of 88
degrees set back in 1963. While it is not the most likely
outcome, two consecutive days of 90 degrees or warmer cannot be
completed ruled out. This is very rare at SeaTac during the
first half of June; the last time that occurred is June 6-7,
2003. In addition, record warm low temperatures are also likely
to be broken in Seattle over the next two nights. Monday`s low
temperature forecast is 62 degrees in Seattle, which would break
the daily record warm low for June 15 of 55 degrees set back in
1970. Tuesday`s forecast low of 61 would break the record warm
low for June 16 of 54 degrees set back in 1973.
Olympia is also likely to break record high temperatures today,
June 14 and Monday, June 15. The forecast high today is 93 and
the forecast high on Monday is 94 degrees. This would break two
daily record highs, as the current record high for June 14 is 88
degrees set back in 1999, and the current record high for June
15 is 88 degrees set back in 1963. Record warm low temperatures
are also likely to be broken in Olympia over the next two
nights. Monday`s low temperature forecast is 61 degrees in
Olympia, which would break the daily record warm low for June 15
of 55 degrees set back in 1954. Tuesday`s forecast low of 58
would break the record warm low for June 16 of 56 degrees set
back in 1964.
Even Hoquiam is likely to break a record high temperature today,
June 14. The current forecast suggests Hoquiam will peak near
83 degrees on Sunday, which would break the current record high
of 79 degrees set back in 1988.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 5 AM PDT Tuesday for
City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-
Eastern Kitsap County-Eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca-
Eastside-Foothills and Valleys of Central King County-
Foothills and Valleys of Pierce and Southern King
Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Snohomish and Northern
King Counties-Foothills and Valleys of Thurston and Lewis
Counties-Foothills and Valleys of the North Cascades-
Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-
Island County-Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower
Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Lewis and Southern
Thurston Counties-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern King
Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern
Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-
Middle Chehalis River Valley-Northern Hood Canal-Olympia
and Southern Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area-San Juan
County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-Southern
Hood Canal-Willapa and Black Hills.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion