Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
386
FXUS66 KSEW 221001
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
201 AM PST Thu Jan 22 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong upper level ridge will continue to maintain dry
conditions across western Washington through the rest of the
week. A weak system will pass through this afternoon for
increased cloud cover across the area. High pressure will then
rebuild on Friday and into the weekend, with no precipitation
expected through the first half of the week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure continues to remain in place over western
Washington this morning, with once again the development of fog
over the area. Recent satellite imagery shows fog spreading from
the coast into the south and central puget sound, also within
the mountain valleys and Bellingham. Places like the South Sound
could also see the chance of freezing fog, as temperatures this
morning are ranging from the upper 20s into the low 30s.
A weak system will pass on through the area later this afternoon
which will bring some increased mid to high level clouds over
the area. This system is fairly weak and has mo moisture
associated with it. We`ll be looking at another dry day with
afternoon high temps in the low to mid 40s.
Upper level ridging will continue Friday and Saturday with a
slightly cooler airmass, high temperatures will stay in the low
to mid 50s both days. Temperatures will also cool slightly
overnight, with low temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. Most
of the region will see below freezing temperatures overnight and
into early on in the morning. Freezing fog could have the
potential to create slippery conditions, especially in the early
morning hours.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Ensembles continue to remain in agreement that high pressure
will remain over western Washington for the first half of the
week. Most of the models have backed off on a weak system
arriving Sunday into Monday, with barely any moisture with that
system now. Temperatures look to warm back up into the upper 40s
and lower 50s through Wednesday. There may be a system
entering the area on Wednesday for some precipitation, but
confidence is low at this time,.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.AVIATION...Northerly flow will continue aloft through the TAF
period as an upper ridge resides over the northeastern Pacific.
A passing disturbance embedded in the flow aloft will drop down
into the region today and may bring some light showers to the
coast. Otherwise, the only other impact from this system will be
increased mid to high cloud cover streaming into the region
overhead.
Satellite imagery shows fog expanding across the interior again
early this morning. As a result, conditions at the area terminals
are primarily IFR to LIFR in fog and MVFR to VFR for terminals
outside of fog. Cold overnight temperatures have also led to the
development of freezing fog in spots overnight, especially for
terminals like KPWT and KOLM. For terminals in fog, expect to
see improvement back towards VFR conditions between 18-21Z. The
exception remains KOLM, which may briefly improve for a few hours
this afternoon, but will likely see fog linger again through
much of the day. Surface winds will be light and variable,
persisting at 3-6 kt. Winds will remain light, but become more
northerly area-wide again by this evening. Another round of fog
and freezing fog will be possible at the area terminals on
Friday morning.
KSEA...Conditions LIFR with fog at the terminal this morning.
Freezing fog may develop at the terminal over the next few hours
as temperatures slowly approach freezing. An improvement to VFR
conditions is expected between 18-20Z. Winds will be light and
variable through the day, persisting at 3-6 kt, before becoming
more northerly by this evening. Another round of fog is possible
at the terminal on Friday, with guidance showing roughly a 20-30
percent chance of LIFR conditions redeveloping by 12-15Z.
14
&&
.MARINE...
The main impact to the area waters today will be fog expanding
across the interior waters early this morning, which may bring
visibilities down to 1 NM or less at times. Otherwise, a weak
system will move into the coastal waters today, which will weaken
the offshore flow and briefly turn the flow more northerly
across the waters.
High pressure will then build back into the waters in its wake
while a thermal trough builds northward along the coast. Offshore
flow returns on Friday as a result and may be breezy at times,
especially along the central and western Strait of Juan de Fuca
and along the gaps in the coastal terrain. Fraser Outflow will
increase early Friday morning and will also bring breezy
northeasterly winds to portions of the Northern Inland Waters
on Friday, where gusts to 25-30 kt will be possible. Offshore
flow will persist through the weekend, but will be weaker.
A weak frontal system looks to reach the waters by early next
week, allowing for winds to gradually shift back to the south
across the area waters by Monday. Southerly winds look to
increase Tuesday into Wednesday as another, stronger frontal
system approaches the region. Seas will hold steady between 3-6
ft through the weekend, but look to build closer to 10 ft near
the middle of next week as the stronger systems move back into
the area.
14
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding is expected during the next seven days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion