Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
114
FXUS66 KSEW 111727
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
927 AM PST Sun Jan 11 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
An atmospheric river will produce periods of moderate to heavy
rain through Monday night. This rain, along with high snow
levels, will bring rises on many area rivers. Flooding is
expected on the Skokomish River. Strong high pressure then
builds into the region by the middle of the week, bringing a
stretch of dry conditions.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Periods of moderate to heavy rain with snow levels above the
passes will continue today into Monday as the axis of an
atmospheric river settles over the CWA. Heaviest precip is
expected in the Olympics and the north/central Cascades. Rises
are expected on the rivers with the Skokomish expected to reach
flood stage later today. More detail can be found in the
hydrology discussion section.
Breezy to locally windy conditions will continue into tonight.
The windiest period looks to be late this afternoon into
tonight...with gusts of 35 to 45 mph for the North Interior and
coastal areas. Wet conditions continue into Monday with the axis
of heaviest precipitation expected across the northern half of
the forecast area. A drying trend will commence Monday night
into Tuesday as upper ridging builds in from the south and
shoves the moisture up into British Columbia. As is typical with
mild atmospheric rivers, temperatures will remain several
degrees above seasonal averages. Near record high temperatures
are possible on Tuesday.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models dissipate a front as it approaches the area on Wednesday
and bumps up against 500 millibar heights in the 575 to 580
decameter range. High amplitude ridging then builds just
offshore for the remainder of the week for dry conditions. 27
&&
.AVIATION...
Frontal boundary stalled over the northern portion of the area
through Monday. Southwesterly flow aloft becoming westerly tonight.
Southeasterly flow in the lower levels.
VFR ceilings over the interior with MVFR along the coast and Kitsap
Peninsula. Areas of LIFR continue to linger along the Strait of Juan
de Fuca. Scattered showers continue this morning. Expect reduced
visibility to 3-5SM in rain. Ceilings lowering over the interior to
MVFR later tonight continuing into Monday. S/SE winds will pick up
this evening to 8-15 kt. The strongest winds will be along the coast
and PAE northwards, where gusts 25-30 kt are likely.
KSEA...VFR ceilings lowering to MVFR after 03z Monday. Visibility
around 3-5SM in rain at times. S/SE wind this morning 4-7 kt will
increase this evening to 8-12 kt. Felton/29
&&
.MARINE...
A front over the northern portion of the waters will remain
stationary into Monday. The front will lift north Monday night or
early Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds over the waters. High
pressure remains in place through the remainder of next week.
Small craft advisory conditions today increasing to gales
tonight then easing back to small craft advisory Monday for the
coastal waters, Entrances to the Strait, Admiralty Inlet and
the Northern Inland waters. Winds increasing to small craft
advisory speeds tonight for Puget Sound and Hood Canal. Winds
easing all areas Monday night into Tuesday. Light winds over the
waters Tuesday night through Thursday.
Seas 12 to 18 feet today building to 14 to 19 feet tonight. Seas
subsiding to 12 to 15 feet Monday and to 9 to 12 feet Monday
night. Seas remaining in the 9 to 12 foot range Tuesday and
Wednesday before subsiding again to 6 to 8 feet Thursday.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The Skokomish River continues to rise, and it is expected to
reach flood stage later today before cresting just above
moderate flood stage Monday morning.
With the heaviest rainfall still aligned across the Olympics and
the North Cascades, these areas will continue to see the highest
potential for flooding. The next surge of moisture arrives late
this evening, and storm totals are expected to peak in the 3 to
5 inch range with snow levels holding high near 7000 ft.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST Monday for Grays Harbor
Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM PST this evening for Admiralty
Inlet-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James
Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-
East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern
Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-West
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 6 PM PST Monday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PST Monday for
Admiralty Inlet-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To
James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape
Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San
Juan Islands-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 6 AM to 1 PM PST Monday for
Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan
De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
Islands.
Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 6 AM PST Monday
for Puget Sound and Hood Canal.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion