Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
548
FXUS66 KSEW 100814
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
114 AM PDT Fri Jul 10 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will bring increasing clouds and cooler temperatures
to Western Washington into Saturday along with chances for some
rain. Upper ridging will build back into the Pacific Northwest
for warmer, dry conditions Sunday through Tuesday. Onshore flow
increases again during the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Clouds are increasing across the area early this morning ahead
of a frontal system that will slide onshore across Western
Washington late this afternoon. Initial precip chances are
fairly meager outside of a few showers near the coast and in the
North Cascades. Onshore flow is slated to increase further on
Saturday ahead of an upper trough and meso models are starting
to latch onto the idea of some convergence developing Saturday
morning. So, areas north of the King County line might wake up
to some damp ground on Saturday morning. Apart from that,
Saturday will feature mostly cloudy skies with temperatures
struggling to get north of 70 degrees across much of the
interior. Heights begin to rise on Sunday as upper troughing
lifts northward back in British Columbia. This will allow some
sunshine to return to most areas by Sunday afternoon with
temperatures nudging upwards closer to normal for the time of
year.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A warming trend continues into Monday and Tuesday as a very
strong ridge centered over the Northern Great Plains exerts a
little more influence over the area. Light onshore flow
continues during the period, but 500 millibar heights at or
above 580 decameters will be sufficient to boost temperatures
from Seattle metro southward back into the lower to mid 80s with
low end chances for moderate HeatRisk.
The forecast picture turns a little more uncertain toward the
middle and end of next week...at least, from a temperature
perspective. Confidence is high in continued dry conditions.
Generally speaking, ensembles are now trending toward a
declining influence in anomalous upper troughing to our west
and/or northwest as strong ridging becomes firmly established
over the Intermountain West. As we approach mid-July, this is
typically the case in most years. So, what does this mean for
Western Washington? It means that we`re quite likely looking at
the return of an extended period of above average temperatures
at the end of (and just beyond) the current 7 day forecast.
27
&&
.AVIATION...
A slowly approaching front has initiated a stronger marine push
which is making its way inland early Friday morning. Marine stratus
has formed along the coast with MVFR/IFR cigs and is spreading into
the interior with widespread MVFR cigs expected by 11-15z Fri. This
layer looks to stick around through the morning hours before
improving to VFR around 20z-22z Fri inland, though expect mid to
high level clouds to continue into Saturday. Stratus may stick
around longer along the coast and may not fully dissipate at KHQM,
though cigs could fluctuate between MVFR and low-end VFR after 21z
Fri. Expect mainly west to southwest winds 4 to 8 kts.
KSEA...VFR conditions with mid-level stratus will likely deteriorate
to MVFR cigs. Latest guidance shows confidence in more widespread
MVFR cigs by 11z-14z Friday as a marine layer spreads through the
interior. Additionally, there`s a 30-45% chance of IFR cigs through
17z Fri. VFR conditions are expected to return around 19-21z Fri,
though expect mid to high level BKN/OVC layer to remain into
Saturday. Northwesterly winds 4 to 8 kts will turn south to
southwesterly by 11-14z Fri, continuing into Saturday.
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the waters will weaken today as a weak
surface low shifts southward toward to just west of north
Vancouver Island on Saturday morning. An associated weak
frontal system will cross the waters Friday afternoon into
Friday night with little to no impact.
High pressure will rebuild Sunday into Monday and remain in
place into midweek. Diurnally driven increases in westerlies
can be expected in the Strait of Juan de Fuca each the next
several days. 27
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
The current onshore pattern will continue through the weekend
which will lead to continued excellent nightly RH recoveries.
Light drizzle or rain chances exist Friday into Saturday, mainly
for the Olympics and Cascades. Rainfall amounts during this
period would generally total less than 0.10".
A ridge of high pressure rebuilds into the region Monday and
Tuesday. While the onshore pattern will largely remain in place,
warmer daytime temperatures and clear skies will likely lead to
RH values dipping into the 20-40% percent range, with the
lowest values in the south interior and Cascades Valleys. This
will allow fine fuels to continue to dry with elevated fire
weather conditions. Some modest cooling is slated to arrive by
the middle of next week, but may well be short-lived.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT early this morning for
Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT
Saturday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion