Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
428
FXUS66 KSEW 140343
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
843 PM PDT Wed May 13 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Widespread showers continues across Western
Washington as an in a cool and somewhat unstable air mass. A
series of disturbances will cross the next few days, with the
strongest of which bringing unseasonably cool conditions for the
start of the weekend. High pressure returns for the start of
next week for a drier pattern, though it may remain weak enough
to limit the extent of warming.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...Cool, cloudy, and
showery conditions continue across Western Washington today. As
onshore flow increases, we`ll see a weak Puget Sound Convergence
Zone likely develop across Snohomish County in the evening and
some lingering gusty winds in the interior, but neither should
be particularly long-lived. Expect a brief break early Thursday,
but the next impulse will again spread some showers and clouds
as a weak front passes through.
The next upper disturbance crosses the region into Friday, and
will bring some additional instability. Expect more widespread
showers and perhaps enough support for a thunderstorm or two
with marginally sufficient instability. One caveat could be that
additional cloud cover would limit any additional surface based
support from diurnal heating. Nevertheless, widespread showers
and cooler temperatures are expected Friday with daytime highs
topping out in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As the deeper upper trough arrives in the region Saturday,
we`ll have continued showers across the region. Steepening lapse
rates due to the cooling aloft, and perhaps paired with a
little bit of clearing in the clouds, could yield another day of
the potential for isolated thunderstorm. This chance would be
highest nearest the Cascades and in a potential PSCZ that
develops later Saturday. With this colder air mass moving into
place, we`ll see notably colder conditions in the mountains.
While the chances for any snow accumulating remain quite low,
those heading to the mountains for any recreation should be
prepared for notably colder temperatures - especially given the
recent warmer weather and lack of significant snow that makes
some of the higher elevations more accessible than they might
otherwise be in mid-May.
Ensemble guidance continues to support general high pressure
pattern returning to the northeastern Pacific, which should
bring temperatures a bit closer to seasonal normals by the end
of the weekend into early next week. It may be far enough away
to leave the door open for a weak disturbance around Monday to
increase clouds a bit, but generally dry conditions remain
favored for the start of next week with temperatures returning
into the 60s.
&&
.AVIATION...Westerly flow aloft this evening as a post frontal
airmass settles over the region. Mixed bag of conditions this
evening, mostly VFR but MVFR to IFR conditions expected along
the coast and KPAE where a PSCZ exists. Rain showers will
gradually diminish tonight but the convergence zone will linger
into the early morning before fizzling out. VFR most areas
tonight with lower ceilings remaining a possibility over KPAE.
Breezy southwesterly winds with gusts up to 25 kts this evening
will gradually taper down tonight, with S/SW wings of 10 to 15
kts.
KSEA...Showers have decreased this evening leading to a rebound to
VFR conditions. Breezy SW winds 10 to 15 kts with gusts up to 25 kts
will gradually decrease tonight.
Mazurkiewicz/41
&&
.MARINE...Onshore flow will continue this evening as a trough
progress across the region. A Gale Warning continues through the
Strait of Juan De Fuca this evening for gusts up to 35 kts.
Throughout this push down the Strait of Juan De Fuca, some winds
will spillover into the Northern Interior Waters, where a Small
Craft Advisory will remain tonight. A SCA has also been added
to Puget Sound and Admiralty Inlet for tonight. Winds will
subside by Thursday morning. Onshore flow will continue through
the Strait of Juan De Fuca through the end of the week with more
pushes through the Strait over the weekend. A system will pass
over the area on Sunday for an increase of winds over the
coastal waters.
Coastal seas 5 to 7 feet this evening will subside generally around
3 to 5 feet on Thursday. Seas will then rebuild towards 7 to 9 feet
late Friday and into Saturday.
Mazurkiewicz/41
&&
.HYDROLOGY...The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the
start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated during
this time as needed.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Gale Warning until 2 AM PDT Thursday for Central U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait
Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Thursday for Admiralty
Inlet-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Thursday for Puget Sound
and Hood Canal.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion