Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
988
FXUS66 KSEW 221614
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
914 AM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A dissipating frontal system will spread some clouds across
Western Washington today along with cooler temperatures. High
pressure briefly rebuilds into the region on Friday before an
area of low pressure brings a chance of rain to the area over
the weekend into early next week. Dry conditions return areawide
by the middle of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No major updates have been made to the forecast. Please see
below for an update to the aviation and marine sections of the
discussion.
A weak front will fall apart as it comes ashore today. We`ll
see a few clouds and cooler temperatures today, but that`ll be
about the extent of it. High pressure briefly rebuilds into the
area on Friday for a little more in the way of sunshine, but
cooler temperatures (really, just more seasonal) will remain in
place.
Forecast uncertainty starts to ramp later Saturday and beyond.
Anomalously strong upper ridging building into southeastern
Alaska over the weekend will aid in cutting off an upper low
sliding southward down the British Columbia coast. And the models
continue to really struggle with the path of the low. In a general
sense, the ECMWF suite of ensembles are more aggressive with
bringing some precip to the area and the GFS less so. The NBM is
something of a compromise and spreads at least a chance of rain to
the northwest half of the CWA by Saturday evening.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Most of the forecast area retains at least chance PoPs Sunday
into Monday as the models keep an upper trough over the region
before eventually kicking it eastward. Beyond that, eerily
quiet conditions are slated to return. Ensemble 500 millibar
height plots from the Euro, GFS, and Canadian at days 6 through
8 keep anomalously strong upper ridging over the Gulf of Alaska
and broad troughing just offshore of California. That`s a recipe
for a pretty quiet period of weather here in Western
Washington.
27
&&
.AVIATION...
Areas of IFR to LIFR this morning in lingering fog, with some areas
along the central Puget Sound maintaining VFR conditions out of the
low stratus and fog. A weak frontal system will bring light showers
to the region this morning, with persisting northerly winds 10 kt or
less. Conditions will likely improve by the afternoon today after
the weak frontal passage, with all terminals expected to return to
VFR between 18z-21z. Models suggest MVFR to low end VFR ceilings may
linger south and east of the Puget Sound this afternoon, though
confidence is low with dry northerly flow. Calm conditions overnight
will likely result in another round of MVFR to IFR/localized LIFR in
low stratus and fog development early Friday morning. Surface winds
early Friday morning expected to shift southeasterly, switching back
to northerly Friday afternoon.
KSEA...VFR with a FEW002 cloud deck floating near the terminal.
Conditions are expected to remain VFR this morning and into the
afternoon. Low end VFR ceilings (4000-5000 feet) may linger after
the passage of a weak frontal system this afternoon, though with dry
northerly flow, this may not materialize. Surface winds generally
northerly around 10 kt today, lightening overnight and switching
southeasterly early Friday morning. Fog potential remains low early
Friday morning with VFR conditions favored for now.
15
&&
.MARINE...
Wind and seas will both increase today as a front moves inland.
Highest wind and seas will be over the Coastal Waters where a Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect. Expect building seas to 10-15 ft
Thursday night. An eye will need to be kept on the western two-
thirds of the Strait, as speeds there may get close to SCA criteria,
but expecting that they will remain just under. Also for monitoring,
seas at Grays Harbor Bar may also get close to rough, however
forecast keeps waves peaking in the 7-9 ft range, again, just shy of
criteria.
Winds and seas will ease and subside on Friday. The flow will turn
offshore this weekend as a deeper surface low spins south over the
offshore waters. The low will weaken as it moves inland early next
week.
18/33
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 8 AM PDT
Friday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
To 60 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion