Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
294
FXUS66 KSEW 160308
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
808 PM PDT Sat Aug 15 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Western Washington will remain positioned between an upper level
low over the northeastern Pacific and upper level ridging to
the southeast through the weekend. Isolated thunderstorms will
be possible across the mountains this afternoon and evening,
with the thunderstorm threat diminishing on Sunday. Another
trough will move across the region early next week. A warmer and
drier trend is then expected mid to late week as a ridge starts
to build into the region, however shower chances may increase
again by Friday as a disturbance approaches from the west.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Western Washington will remain positioned between a weak upper
level low over the northeastern Pacific and upper level ridging
building in from the southeast through the weekend. The low
will allow for a weak shortwave to move across the area today,
with the main highlight remaining the shower and isolated
thunderstorm threat for the mountains this afternoon and
evening.
Latest satellite imagery this afternoon shows stratus persisting
along the Pacific Coast and Southwest Interior, while gradually
scattering out across the interior lowlands. Meanwhile, mid-
level clouds associated with shower activity continue to work
their way up along the south-central Cascades. Isolated thunderstorms
will remain possible for the mountains this evening as
conditions remain unstable until dusk. Elevated fire weather
conditions will continue for the Cascades as a result due to
lightning and gusty outflow winds in any storms that do fire up.
Highs today will be in the 70s to low 80s across the interior
lowlands and in the mid 60s along the coast.
Ridging will build into the region from the southeast on
Sunday, allowing for overall thunderstorm chances to diminish
across the area with only a slight chance (15-20%) expected
across the North Cascades during the afternoon and evening
hours. Otherwise, expect another round of marine stratus to make
its way inland during the morning and to scatter out by the
afternoon. Highs on Sunday will be in the upper 70s to low 80s
across the interior lowlands and in the mid to upper 60s along
the coast. Monday will be similar as the the low offshore
weakens and sinks southwestward. Another round of morning
stratus across the area will scatter for some afternoon sun,
with highs expected to be similar to Sunday - in the upper 70s
to low 80s across the interior and in the mid 60s to low 70s
along the coast.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ensemble guidance has become somewhat more consolidated with
respect to the pattern for the middle to late portions of next
week, with a lean toward high pressure building across the Great
Basin and extending into the Pacific Northwest. This would
bring temperatures to near to slightly above seasonal normals
into the late stages of next week. While the pattern of onshore
low-level flow maintaining morning clouds and clearing in the
interior by early afternoon each day will prevent relative
humidity values from trending too low, there is still not a
significant signal for rainfall for the midweek period. This may
begin to shift toward Friday as ensemble guidance suggests the
next disturbance may get close enough to bring another round of
shower chances. That said, there`s still around 40% of ensemble
members that would favor more of a ridge pattern over the west
coast that could continue to block the region from any
significant weather systems.
&&
.AVIATION...
Marine stratus remains in place over points west of the Olympic Mtns
and as far east as SHN, resulting in persistent MVFR conditions. VFR
conditions present elsewhere this evening. Widespread MVFR
conditions expected to return very late tonight/early Sunday morning
as another marine push gets underway. That said, terminals currently
seeing MVFR conditions will see cigs lower overnight, getting down
into IFR/LIFR conditions by Sunday morning. Improvement to VFR
conditions expected throughout the area by the early afternoon,
including along the coast.
Winds aloft generally southwesterly for the TAF period, although
split flow may impact areas in the far northern reaches of the CWA.
Westerly surface winds, with some variances to the NW or SW, this
evening becoming light and variable overnight before returning to
west northwesterly Sunday afternoon. Speeds this evening and Sunday
afternoon generally 5-10 kts.
KSEA...VFR conditions this evening. MVFR cigs possible (30-40%
chance) again Sunday morning, with a 20% chance of IFR cigs after
12z Sunday. Conditions should improve in the afternoon to VFR. SW
winds this evening 5-7 kt winds will shift more W/NW by 06z around
4-5 kt. Light SW winds overnight into Sunday morning. Guidance
suggests WNW return Sunday afternoon.
29/18
&&
.MARINE...
Broad high pressure over the Pacific will maintain light winds over
the coastal waters. High pressure will then expand into area waters
on Sunday and strengthen into next week. This will lead to increased
NW winds over the coastal waters into next week, but are expected to
remain below SCA thresholds. Seas will be around 3-6 ft through
Monday. Seas will build slightly on Tuesday and become steep around
6-8 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds over the outer coastal
waters. Steep seas look to continue through Thursday.
Diurnally driven westerly winds will continue to occur each
afternoon and evening through the Strait of Juan de Fuca this
weekend with gusts likely (70%+ chance reaching SCA thresholds. The
westerly pushes look to start to weaken starting on Monday into late
in the week with a 30% or lower chance of winds reaching SCA
thresholds.
29
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Elevated fire weather conditions will continue across the
Cascades today with slight chances (15-20%) of thunderstorms
possible along the Cascade crest this evening. Overall chances
for convection will diminish into Sunday as upper level ridging
builds into the area from the southeast. By Sunday, expect
convection to largely be confined along the far Northern Cascade
crest and areas generally east of the crest.
Continued onshore flow and excellent overnight humidity recoveries
will then help mitigate fire weather conditions through early
next week. While some uncertainty remains in the long term
pattern, ensemble guidance has increasingly come to consensus
that a warming and drying trend is likely mid to late week,
before the potential for shower and thunderstorm chances increases
again late week as the next disturbance approaches from the west.
This could potentially reintroduce some elevated fire weather
concerns to the area.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Sunday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion