Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
378
FXUS66 KSEW 041047
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
247 AM PST Wed Feb 4 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure builds over the region this
week, bringing unseasonably warm and dry conditions to western
Washington along with morning fog. A return to cooler and wet
conditions occurs over the weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Strong high pressure
remains in control for dry and mild weather through the end of
the week. Mid and high clouds are streaming overhead but we will
see decreasing clouds this afternoon with conditions becoming
clear. With the mild air mass in place, max temperatures will
track above average with highs in the 50s to lower 60s through
Friday. Overnight lows will be a few degrees cooler with 30s
around the south sound. 33
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...Wet and cooler
weather returns over the weekend as the flow aloft turns to more
zonal. Snow levels will lower Sunday night and Monday, around
3000 ft, with accumulating snowfall expected in the mountains
and passes. Precipitation, heavy at times in the Olympics, will
keep the Skokomish River in Mason County running high with minor
flooding possible. More lowland rain and mountain snow moving
through early next week due to a trough. 33
&&
.AVIATION...Southwest flow aloft through much of the TAF
period. Previous patchy fog/low clouds from earlier this morning
has since lifted to VFR as mid-high level clouds have become
BKN-OVC. Still advertising some VCFG over Puget Sound terminals
into the morning hours due to small dewpoint depressions but the
window for widespread fog has likely closed this morning.
So with that, VFR for much of the day as mid-high clouds associated
with a front well-offshore continue to spill into the region.
Gradients are relaxed, keeping surface winds light - below 5 kt with
variable directions from terminal to terminal. Tonight, skies are
favored to clear and open the door for fog development across area
terminals. Expect sites like KOLM and KPWT to to under LIFR
conditions but offshore flow may help to keep fog becoming
totally widespread.
KSEA...VFR currently with a BKN140 deck observed at the terminal.
Confidence is leaning towards VFR maintaining throughout the day
with light winds. Mid-high clouds will clear into the evening with
fog development likely becoming a feature into early Thursday
morning. Any fog that should form will burn off by midday Thursday.
McMillian
&&
.MARINE...SCA remains in effect for the coastal waters -
primarily due to seas through at least Thursday. Surface high
pressure will remain centered over the interior with a broad
trough of low pressure offshore producing varying degrees of
offshore flow across area waters. East winds may approach small
craft advisory levels at the west entrance to the strait and
adjacent coastal waters on Thursday. Active conditions well
offshore will continue to produce hazardous seas over the
coastal waters this week. A series of frontal systems will begin
to reach area waters this weekend into next week with the next
best chance of more widespread wind related headlines.
Dense fog will be a possibility over the inland waters through next
couple of mornings.
McMillian
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Heavier precipitation over the weekend and early
next week will force rises on the Skokomish River in Mason
County with the river close to minor flood stage. Flooding is
not expected elsewhere over the next 7 days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion