Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
357
FXUS66 KSEW 052116
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
216 PM PDT Mon Oct 5 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Zonal flow to weak ridging aloft and onshore flow at the
surface will maintain seasonably warm conditions across western
Washington through much of the week, with morning clouds and
fog followed by afternoon sun breaks. Chances for rain increase
towards Friday into the weekend alongside cooler temperatures as
troughing develops over the Pacific Northwest.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The overall weather pattern look to remain fairly similar
through Thursday as mostly zonal flow trends towards slightly
higher 500 mb heights by mid-week as the ridge over the
southwestern U.S. expands. What that translates to for the
Pacific Northwest is a routine pattern of morning clouds and
fog, giving way to sunnier afternoons with high clouds overhead.
Chances for fog will be greatest today as light winds will this
afternoon and tonight, and continued moisture will help promote
the redevelopment of the marine layer and areas of dense fog.
Slightly stronger winds Tuesday and Wednesday may help to trend
things towards stratus and less fog by mid-week, but areas of
patchy fog will still remain possible in the sheltered valleys.
Temperatures will remain seasonably warm across the area with
highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. Lows remain in the upper 40s to
mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper level ridging looks to gain its greatest influence across
Washington on Thursday, therefore also forecast to be the
warmest day of the week with highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Most models agree on the development of an upper level trough
digging into the Pacific Northwest Friday into the weekend.
There will be some slight chances for showers across portions of
the area but widespread rain does not look very likely with
this system. There remains some uncertainty in the exact timing
but Friday into Saturday have the best chances at this time.
But an increase in clouds and an increase in winds is to be
expected. Cooler temperatures also looks to be in store with
highs dipping into the upper 50s to low 60s this weekend, with
lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s.
62
&&
.AVIATION...
Onshore flow will continue through the TAF period. This morning`s
fog and low clouds continue to clear this afternoon, though a few
pockets of MVFR ceilings remain in the south interior, the Pacific
Coast, and north interior terminals. Conditions will continue to
improve to VFR through the evening. Overnight: another round of
fog/low stratus is likely with the next marine push, beginning as
early as 06-10Z in west/central terminals, and likely lasting
through 18-21Z before clearing. Winds will switch to the
north/northeast at 4-6 kt for most south of the Strait of Juan de
Fuca this afternoon/evening. A few gusts to 16 kt will continue in
portions of the north interior through the evening. Light/calm winds
are expected tonight/Tuesday morning before increasing out of the
north 4-8 kt.
KSEA...Conditions improving to VFR this afternoon/early tonight with
high clouds. Winds will switch to the north/northeast this afternoon
at around 5 kt before becoming light/calm. Fog/low LIFR stratus
remains likely to reach the terminal again as early as 10Z, and
likely lasting through 18-21Z before improving to VFR.
HPR
KSEA...
&&
.MARINE...
Onshore flow will likely continue through the week with high
pressure remaining offshore. Several areas of fog will be likely
next couple of mornings with ample moisture in each of the pushes. A
weak push this afternoon is expected to bring wind gusts up to 15-20
kt in the central Strait of Juan de Fuca. The southwestern coastal
waters will also see pockets of similar wind gusts through the first
part of the week. The next organized frontal system on Friday will
likely bring small craft winds to the coastal waters, and a chance
for gale gusts to portions of the Strait of Juan de Fuca.
Seas through Wednesday hold at 4-6 ft, and increase to 6-10 ft late
this week with the late week systems passing through.
HPR
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion