Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
861
FXUS66 KSEW 230508
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1008 PM PDT Thu Oct 22 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Generally dry and mild conditions are expected through the end
of the week, with light precipitation possible over the weekend
as low pressure moves south from the British Columbia coast.
Weak ridging and drier conditions are forecast through the last
week of the month, but a return to a more active weather regime
is possible as of the first week of November.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
The dissipating front has left mostly cloudy skies across
western Washington this afternoon, with highs in the mid 50s and
low 60s. Skies will be clearer on Friday and with slightly
cooler temperatures. A low pressure system will be moving into
Washington waters Saturday for a chance of showers throughout
the day. Morning lows on Saturday will be in the upper 30s to
low 40s. Mountain valley locations could be in the low 30s for
possible frost and freezes. More of the precipitation will be
focused along the Olympic Peninsula with amounts of only a few
hundredths of an inch inland through Puget Sound.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Some shower activity will linger into Sunday but will remain
mostly cloudy. Only a few hundredths of an inch are in the
forecast for Sunday but generally conditions look to become
drier trending into Sunday afternoon. Some of the ensemble
guidance takes the aforementioned low pressure system inland
into Oregon early in the week, which would keep conditions on
the cooler and cloudier side, other solutions bring in weak high
pressure. The majority of the week will be dry. However, there
are extended range solutions indicating that the end of the
month and into the first week of November may signal a switch to
a more active pattern. The probabilistic week two hazards have
portions of the CWA highlighted for slight risks of heavy rain,
possible mountain snow and some breezier conditions for the
immediate coast. Stay tuned to the forecast as details evolve.
21
&&
.AVIATION...
Mostly VFR this evening. With winds remaining light, we`ll see
another round of MVFR to IFR/localized LIFR conditions as low
stratus and fog expand over the region early Friday morning,
particularly south of the Puget Sound and over the Kitsap
Peninsula. Flight conditions are expected to improve to VFR
across western Washington Friday afternoon under clear skies.
Surface winds ease this evening and shift southeasterly early
Friday morning, switching back to northerly Friday afternoon.
KSEA...VFR with occasionally breezy NW winds 10-15 kt with gusts to
20 kt. Winds will ease later this evening and become light
overnight, but return to northerly Friday morning. Confidence
is increasing over MVFR ceilings developing over the terminal
overnight, with a 35-40% chance of cigs below 3000 feet and a
30% chance of cigs below 2000 feet between 12z-18z Friday
morning. VFR conditions expected to return by the afternoon.
&&
.MARINE...
Northwesterly winds will continue to pick up through the evening and
into early Friday in the wake of a weak frontal system. Along with
winds, seas will build to 9 to 14 feet over the inner coastal
waters, and up to 11 to 17 feet across the outer coastal waters
through Friday morning. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains
across the coastal waters through Friday. While seas will gradually
ease along the coast Friday afternoon, seas will come down a little
slower further from shore, and the Small Craft goes through Friday
afternoon across the outer coastal waters. Have also issued an
advisory for Grays Harbor Bar with seas around 10 ft and
remaining fairly steep tonight through early Friday.
Winds and seas will ease and subside by late Friday, with a
more benign pattern settling in over area waters into Saturday.
By Sunday, a low pressure system will move southward over the
region, though some uncertainty remains over the storm track.
While winds are expected to remain low, seas may build over the
outer coastal waters to around 10 feet Sunday morning with this
incoming system, then ease into next week where they will remain
around 4 to 5 feet.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Friday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater
Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
To 60 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion