Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
983
FXUS66 KSEW 241716
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1016 AM PDT Sat Oct 24 2026
.SYNOPSIS...A low pressure system will descend from British
Columbia tonight into Sunday, bringing precipitation to Western
Washington. Conditions look to remain cooler and unsettled next
week as additional systems move through the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...High clouds starting to
stream overhead across Western Washington early this morning.
Temperatures continue to drop as well, with the latest
observations showing temperatures in the low 30s to low 40s. A
frontal system associated associated with a low pressure system
just off the coast of British Columbia will move south into
Western Washington this evening. Light precipitation is expected
with this system, with rain reaching the coastline this evening
and then filling into the interior by Sunday morning. The bulk
of the precipitation is expected along the coast and the
Olympics. The parent upper level low is expected to continue its
southward track Sunday into Monday. The majority of models
favor the center of the low pressure system moving into Oregon,
which should render drier conditions for the region. However,
shall center of the low track more towards the Oregon/Washington
border, it may keep light showers in the forecast for Monday.
High temperatures in the mid to upper 50s. Low temperatures in the
in the low 30s to low 40s increasing to the upper 30s to mid 40s by
Monday.
29
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...Conditions look to
remain generally unsettled into Friday. There is general
agreement among ensemble guidance a broad upper level trough
will remain situated over the region Tuesday with a low pressure
system to the north. Models are now trending wetter on
Wednesday and Thursday, as the low pressure system moves
southward. Cooler temperatures expected next week, with the
coldest temperatures expected late in the week; high
temperatures in the low to mid 50s and low temperatures in the
low 30s to low 40s.
29
&&
.AVIATION...Westerly flow aloft will transition southwesterly and
increase into tonight as an upper trough digs southwards over the
Washington offshore waters. Increasing VFR mid and high clouds today
ahead of a frontal system with localized LIFR/IFR over HQM this
morning. Cigs may brief fluctuate into high end MVFR at KBLI
this afternoon. Cigs slowly lower over the Olympic Peninsula
into MVFR/IFR tonight with increasing rain. High end MVFR to low
end VFR cigs for Puget Sound terminals Sunday as the frontal
system moves across the interior. Vsbys reductions may occur in
steadier rainfall over the Olympic Peninsula terminals.
Increasing south winds along the coast later today, with light
winds for central and southern Puget Sound.
KSEA...VFR conditions through tonight with continued mid and
high clouds. Dry conditions into tonight, with rain potential
increasing around 12-15z Sunday. Cigs also lowering towards low-
end VFR at the onset of the rain Sunday AM. Southeast surface
winds becoming more SW this afternoon, mainly less than 5 kts.
Surface winds transition back to more E/NE this evening and
tonight, remaining light. JD
&&
.MARINE...A surface low southwest of Haida Gwaii will shift
southward today into tonight and an associated occluded front
will clip the coastal waters on Sunday morning. Increasing
easterly or southeasterly gradients will lead to small craft
advisory winds across the coastal waters as well as the Strait
of Juan de Fuca. Seas will build to 10 to 12 feet over the
coastal waters late today into Sunday. The surface low is
expected to move onshore over northwest Oregon Sunday night into
Monday with winds easing and seas subsiding back below 10 feet.
Another frontal system will shift southward into area waters on
Wednesday.
27
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Sunday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait
Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT
Sunday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 5 PM PDT Sunday
for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT
Sunday for Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion