Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
663
FXUS66 KSEW 220944
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
244 AM PDT Tue Sep 22 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level troughing will continue to bring onshore flow and
cooler temperatures through midweek. A weak system will bring
light rain today into Wednesday. A stronger system will bring
more widespread rain and slightly cooler temperatures to the
area Thursday and Friday. Unsettled conditions continue over the
weekend with likely additional precipitation.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Recent satellite imagery
shows low stratus spreading throughout the interior as
southwest onshore flow continues over the area. Expect morning
clouds to start to dissipate by the mid afternoon hours, with a
mix of sun and mid level clouds the rest of the day. High
temperatures will warm up in the mid to upper 60s, with areas in
the Southwest Interior being a touch warmer, maybe in the low
70s.
A weak disturbance will cross over the area into Wednesday, with
a chance of showers across the area, especially in the morning.
Most of the area will remain dry as this system is rather weak.
High temperatures remaining generally in the mid 60s for much
of the interior, with locations along the coast seeing the
influence of onshore flow, with temps in the low 60s.
Ensembles continue to be in agreement with a slightly stronger
and wetter frontal system Thursday into Friday. Widespread rain
will spread throughout the interior by Thursday afternoon and
evening, with areas in the Cascades and Olympics seeing the
bulk of the precip. With this frontal system, snow levels will
lower to 6000 to 7000 feet, with some higher elevation peaks
seeing their first dusting of snow for the season. High
temperatures Thursday will cool, with most areas seeing upper
50s to lower 60s.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Rain will continue on Friday and become more scattered in
nature later in the day, with cooler temperatures in the upper
50s to low 60s continuing. Upper level troughing continues over
the weekend, with additional chances of precipitation and cooler
temperatures. There is still some uncertainty in ensembles, but
for now, it looks like fall weather is here.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.AVIATION...
A weak cold front will move through the terminals this morning, with
minimal precipitation (few areas of drizzle and an isolated shower
post-front in northern Puget Sound this morning up to the north
interior). MVFR ceilings (with isolated pockets of IFR ceilings and
mist) will continue to increase in coverage this morning, peaking
from 14Z-18Z, and likely lasting through 20-21Z before improving to
VFR in the afternoon. Ceilings Wednesday morning are favored either
in low-end VFR or MVFR, with fewer pockets of IFR.
Variable/northeast winds this morning under 5 kt will transition to
the southwest in the afternoon 4-8 kt (expect higher winds in the
Strait of Juan de Fuca).
KSEA...LAMP guidance favors MVFR development from 12-14Z (already in
progress at neighboring KBFI to the north), likely lasting through
20-21Z before improving to VFR for the remainder of the period.
Variable/light northeast winds this morning will switch to the
southwest this afternoon 4-8 kt.
HPR
&&
.MARINE...
This morning`s west push through the Strait of Juan de Fuca will
weaken as a cold front has progressed through most of the waters. A
weaker push is likely to occur this afternoon, although confidence
remains low in wind gusts exceeding 20 kt for most of the Strait of
Juan de Fuca (except for a small portion of the central strait on
the Canadian side). An additional front will pass through tonight
into Wednesday with little to no impact expected. A stronger system
will move through Thursday into Friday with more precipitation, as
well as an increased likelihood of seeing winds/wind gusts over 20
kt in the coastal waters and Strait of Juan de Fuca. An additional
system late into next weekend does not appear likely at this time to
produce hazardous winds to the waters.
Seas 6 to 8 feet today with isolated pockets of 9 feet but with
longer northwest periods of 10 to 12 seconds. Seas drop back to 6 to
8 feet through the remainder of the forecast.
HPR
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT early this morning for
Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion