Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
567
FXUS66 KSEW 301014
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
314 AM PDT Fri Oct 30 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Weakening upper level low off the north coast will elongate and
continue to weaken through Saturday. What is left of the low
will move inland Saturday night. Upper level ridge building over
the area Sunday. The ridge will move east Monday allowing a warm
front to nick the north coast. Another ridge will build Tuesday
into Wednesday. The ridge will move to the east Thursday with a
splitting front moving into Western Washington.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Satellite imagery shows upper level low now west of KUIL.
Showers rotating around the low from the Puget Sound area
westward. Temperatures at 3 AM/10Z were in the 40s.
Upper level low drifting southwest today. Flow aloft over
Western Washington already southerly this morning. As the low
moves southwest difluent flow aloft developing this afternoon.
This combined with a little daytime heating to increase the
instability over the area will produce more widespread shower
activity this afternoon especially over the interior. Increasing
shower activity in the afternoon will knock a couple of degrees
off the high temperatures with lower 50s common across the area.
The forecast high of 51 degrees for Seattle would be the coldest
day since another 51 degree day back on May 15th.
Upper level low elongating and weakening tonight and Saturday
but will still be off the coast by late Saturday afternoon. Jet
stream moving inland over Northern California. Shower activity
drying up quickly this evening. Shower chances becoming
confined to the coast after midnight and to the coastal waters
Saturday morning. Varying amounts of middle and high level
clouds moving through the area. Lows in the 30s and lower 40s.
If there is enough clearing chance for lows in the upper 20s in
the Lower Chehalis Valley and Southwest Interior. A freeze watch
for these areas will remain in effect. Highs Saturday in the
lower to mid 50s.
Upper level low weakening to an upper level trough and moving
inland Saturday night. Nothing left with this feature by this
point. Light surface gradients early Sunday morning with patchy
fog developing in the fog prone locations like the Southwest
Interior. Lows in the 30s and lower 40s.
Light onshore gradients Sunday morning for areas of morning low
clouds and fog. Upper level ridge building into the area during
the day making for a sunny afternoon. Highs in the lower to mid
50s. Felton
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Extended models in pretty good agreement with the upper level
ridge over the area Sunday night moving east Monday. This will
allow a warm front to nick the north coast later Monday into
Monday night. Another upper level ridge building Tuesday
remaining over Western Washington Wednesday but the ridge axis
will be east of the area. Splitting front reaching Western
Washington Thursday for a chance of rain. Highs in the mid 50s
with some upper 50s Wednesday. Lows in the 30s and lower 40s.
Felton
&&
.AVIATION...
An upper level trough will remain over the coastal and offshore
waters today and Saturday producing south to southwest flow aloft
over Western Washington. Surface winds at many terminals generally
light and variable while those reporting winds are mainly seeing
northeasterly to easterly with speeds ranging 4-8 kts. As the day
progresses, a slight shift to easterly to southeasterly winds is
expected, although winds likely will not get beyond the previously
mentioned 4-8 kts range.
Shower activity over W WA has eased considerably, two bands still
remain, one moving over the Puget Sound while the other remains just
off the coast over the nearshore waters. Impacts to terminals have
been minimal as widespread VFR conditions persist, although
locations more prone to lower cigs such as OLM and HQM have seen
conditions erode to MVFR or IFR. As another round of showers is
expected to pick up this afternoon, widespread MVFR conditions are
expected to emerge. Activity is expected to taper off in the early
evening with widespread VFR conditions returning, although some
isolated examples of MVFR could linger.
KSEA...Ceilings are expected to remain at or above 4000 to 5000 feet
for much of the remainder of the morning. A general deterioration to
MVFR ceilings is expected between 16Z and 21Z as showers increase
once again. Wind discussion above applies.
18
&&
.MARINE...
Weak surface low pressure over the coastal waters will remain in
place into Saturday before dissipating as high pressure builds
across the interior of Western Washington early in the coming week.
East or southeast winds across the coastal waters and near the west
entrance to the strait will occasionally reach 15 to 20 knots over
the next couple of days until the offshore low finally dissipates.
Otherwise, winds into early next week look to remain rather light
across area waters.
Coastal seas generally 4 to 6 feet today and into the weekend. They
are expected to build back to around 10 feet Monday as another
larger swell train reaches the waters.
27/18
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Freeze Watch from late tonight through Saturday morning for
Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties-Middle
Chehalis River Valley.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion