Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
150
FXUS66 KSEW 240953
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
253 AM PDT Thu Sep 24 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A stronger, more fall-like system will move through
the region this evening into Friday, bringing more widespread
rain and some gusty winds to western Washington. Drier
conditions are expected this weekend, however additional chances
of precipitation will likely return to the area by early next
week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A frontal system will move across western Washington this
evening into Friday, bringing widespread rain to the area, along
with some gusty winds along the coast and the Strait of Juan De
Fuca. Rain will start to spread along the coast and Olympics
this afternoon, with most of the rain reaching interior portions
of western Washington by this evening. Most lowland locations will
receive between half an inch to an inch of rainfall, with the
Olympics and Cascades likely to receive between an inch and an
inch and a half of rain. High temperatures will cool with most
locations seeing upper 50s, and low 60s.
As the upper trough moves through the region Friday, rain will
transition more to showers. Winds will increase across the area
on Friday as the parent surface low approaches the coast. At
this time, much uncertainty exists, as wind strength is
dependent on the track of the surface low. The most likely
scenario at this time shows wind gusts generally around 30 to 45
mph along the coast Friday morning, with areas along the
Strait of Juan De Fuca also seeing gusts generally 35 to 45 mph
Friday evening. If the surface low tracks southward, a small
chance (10%) exists of gusts reaching 55 mph along Grays Harbor
county.
Additionally, the airmass will be unstable in a post- frontal
environment, leading to a slight chance of thunderstorms
becoming possible across most of the area Friday afternoon and
evening. Snow levels will lower to 6000 to 7000 feet by late
Friday, which could bring the first dusting of snow to the
higher elevations of the Olympics and Cascades.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Conditions look to dry out over the weekend with weak upper
level ridging across the area, meanwhile temperatures will
remain in the low 60s across the area. Ensembles continue to
highlight unsettled weather through the first half of next week,
with chances of rain returning along with cooler temperatures.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.AVIATION...
A weak front that passed through the terminals yesterday evening
will stall just east of the Cascades today, with high pressure
briefly rebuilding over the Pacific before an organized low pressure
system tracks inland from the southwest tonight/Friday. All
terminals are VFR this morning with mid and high level cloud decks.
These ceilings will gradually lower into the afternoon and evening
as the system pushes through with bands of steady rain - beginning
along the coast and pushing inland through tonight. Expect
deteriorating ceilings and visibilities as the rain pushes through -
down to MVFR and IFR with pockets of LIFR along the coast and
mountains. Winds Thursday are out of the north 4-6 kt - expect them
to turn to the southeast and southwest Friday morning as the low
tracks through. Gusts up to 20-25 kt are likely on Friday, as will
be a post-frontal convergence zone over Puget Sound/Cascades. There
is a 20% chance of thunder for activity Friday afternoon.
KSEA...VFR for Thursday as high clouds gradually lower through the
day. Rain arrives at the terminal after 00Z this evening through 12Z
Friday morning, with lingering showers continuing into Friday
afternoon with a convergence zone. Ceilings and visibilities likely
deteriorate to MVFR after 09Z with the precipitation. North winds
will continue today at 5-10 kt this morning - decreasing to 4-8 kt
this afternoon. Winds turn to the south Friday morning and increase
during the day with gusts up to 20-25 kt.
HPR
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure will briefly build back over the coastal waters today
behind a weak front that moved through yesterday. WInds will
continue to remain north-northeasterly today but remain below any
concerns for small crafts. A stronger low pressure system remains on
track to move across the waters tonight into Friday. The center of
the low will likely track over the southern portions of the coastal
waters, which is a slight northward deviation from previous
forecasts. This resulted in a slight uptick in wind forecasts for
the waters as a result. The greatest likelihood of gale gusts (over
34 kt) remains the southern coastal waters and the central/east
sections of the Strait of Juan de Fuca, where a gale watch has been
issued for Friday. While waters outside of the watch have lesser
chances for gale gusts, there still remains a high likelihood of
winds/gusts between 20-30 kt with this system, which will be
hazardous to small craft. Additionally, there is a 15-20% chance of
thunderstorms in the southern coastal waters with the precipitation
moving through Friday morning.
Expect conditions to ease over the weekend into next week with no
significant impacts with a weak system passing through Sunday. High
pressure will rebuild over the coastal waters next week.
Seas will build to 5-8 ft Thursday, and increase to 9-12 ft Friday
with the system moving through, before dropping back to 4-6 ft this
weekend, and 6-8 ft midweek next week.
HPR
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Gale Watch from Friday morning through late Friday night for
Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Watch from this evening through Friday evening for
Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion