Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
278
FXUS66 KSEW 071128
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
328 AM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Mild day today with a warm front to the north and a cold front
still offshore. Cold front moving through tonight bringing rain
and windy conditions to most of the area along with high surf
to the beaches. Post frontal showers ending Sunday. Another wet
and windy system moving into the area Monday night but not
nearly as strong as the system tonight. Atmospheric river
settling up over Western Washington Tuesday will lift north
Tuesday night. Cold front stalling near the coast Wednesday
and Thursday moving through Thursday night. Another system will
arrive Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mild early morning with Western Washington in the warm sector.
Mostly cloudy skies across most of the area. Light winds
combining with a moist lower layer, dew points near 50 degrees,
to produce areas of fog in the Puget Sound area and over the
Kitsap Peninsula. Temperatures near 50 at 3 am/11Z.
Western Washington remaining in the warm sector today with a
warm front to the north and a cold front still offshore late
this afternoon. Rain developing along the coast this afternoon
with the rain not making it as far east as the Puget Sound by
late afternoon. Highs near 60.
Cold front reaching the coast this evening. The front will move
through the Puget Sound area around midnight and will be into
the Cascades by early Sunday morning. This front has some punch
to it. Model 925 mb winds just ahead, with and just behind the
front in the 55 to 65 knot range along the coast and in the 35
to 50 knot range over the interior from the Puget Sound
northward. Some of these winds will mix down to the surface.
Have upgraded the high wind watch on the beaches to a high wind
warning beginning late this afternoon with southerly wind gusts
has high as 60 mph. Have added wind advisories for the interior
coast zones, along the Strait of Juan de Fuca and Admiralty
Inlet, and over the interior near the Puget Sound from Seattle
Northward including the San Juan Islands for southerly wind
gusts 45 to 50 mph tonight into early Sunday morning. Strongest
winds will be with the frontal passage this evening along the
coast and around midnight for the interior. Our benign October
weather left plenty of leaves on the trees increasing the
chances for impacts with borderline advisory wind speeds.
In addition to the winds, seas will rise rapidly into the 22 to
26 foot range along the ocean beaches tonight. A high surf
warning has replaced the high surf advisory with the warning
beginning at 10 pm. Seas will be well above 10 feet by low tide
late this afternoon at Mocrocks beach. This along with strong
winds will make for dangerous conditions for the clam dig.
Weather calming down Sunday, although breezy conditions will
still be present in the morning. Post frontal shower activity
will be minimal with most of the activity over with by noon.
Highs in the mid 50s under mostly cloudy skies. Seas remaining
elevated in the 22 to 26 foot range.
Break in the weather continuing Sunday night with the next
system near 135W by 12Z Monday. The front is showing signs of
becoming negatively tilted with the parent low moving north
along 142W near 55W early in the morning. Lows in the mid 30s to
mid 40s. Seas easing overnight. The high surf warning will come
to an end at 10 pm Sunday evening.
Front moving east Monday but still offshore by late Monday
afternoon. Rain reaching the coast in the afternoon with a
chance of rain inland by late afternoon. Parent surface low way
up in the Gulf of Alaska. Model 925 mb winds 30 to 40 knots
along the coast with the front and weaker inland. This system
will not produce winds like the system tonight. Felton
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Models in good agreement with the front moving through Monday
night and another front right on its heels for Tuesday.
Atmospheric river setting up Tuesday night with the bulk of the
moisture aimed at Vancouver Island. Warm front hanging over
Western Washington. Model solutions becoming inconsistent
Wednesday as an upper level trough digs south offshore. This
will push the warm front north into British Columbia. Solutions
for the trailing cold front range from stalling along the coast
to stalling back near 130W Wednesday. Inconsistencies continue
Thursday with solutions split between what is left of the front
moving through to the front remaining stalled off the coast.
There is better agreement Friday with another system moving
across the Pacific into the area. In general chance pops for
Wednesday and Thursday with rain along the coast and rain likely
inland Friday.
Mild temperatures through the period. Highs near 60 Tuesday and
Thursday, lower to mid 60s Wednesday, then back down to the mid
50s with the rain Friday. Highs Wednesday will be close to
records in some locations. Record high for Seattle is 65 set in
1990. Current forecast high is 64. Felton
&&
.AVIATION...
West to southwest flow aloft will increase this morning and become
strong this afternoon and evening as a vigorous frontal system moves
onshore into the region. Plentiful low level moisture and light
surface winds have resulted in a mix of MVFR and IFR ceilings this
morning along with areas of surface visibility below 3 statute
miles. The low ceilings and reduced visibility are expected to scour
out for most areas by 18Z-20Z as low level east to southeasterly
flow begins to increase ahead of the incoming system. Ceilings are
expected to deteriorate back to MVFR in increasing rain along the
coast after 00Z. Rain will spread to most of the interior by 06Z
with ceilings near or just above 3000 feet. Strong southerly surface
winds with gusts 35 to 45 knots will develop along the coast late
this afternoon/evening with strong winds spreading to interior areas
this evening and overnight.
KSEA...Ceilings will straddle the IFR/MVFR boundary for several
hours this morning before lifting to VFR by midday as high and mid
clouds increase ahead of the next frontal system. Gusty surface
winds will develop by late this afternoon and increase through the
evening. Rain is expected to arrive around 04Z with ceilings
lowering to near or just above 3000 feet. Surface winds light E/SE
this morning will rise to 8 to 12 knots this afternoon then quickly
increase to southerly 15 to 25 knots gusting to 30 to 35 knots this
evening and persisting overnight before gradually easing Sunday
morning. Low level wind shear is expected just ahead of and with the
front this evening with 2000 foot winds southerly 45 to 50 knots.
27
&&
.MARINE...
An active weather pattern will continue into next week as a series
of frontal systems impact area waters. A vigorous frontal system
associated with 970 millibar surface low curling northeastward
offshore tonight is expected to produce a period of storm force wind
gusts over the coastal waters later today into tonight with gales
across the remainder of the waters tonight. Seas will build to 21 to
28 feet late tonight into Sunday before gradually subsiding Sunday
night into Monday. Weak high pressure will briefly build over the
waters on Monday before another deepening surface low moving toward
Haida Gwaii pushes a front across the waters Monday night into
Tuesday.
27
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
River flooding is not expected through the next seven days.
Multiple weather systems moving through the area in the next
week. While current precipitation forecasts are not expected to
cause flooding, this will saturate soils and raise base flows
that could bring a concern with storm systems by late next
week.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 4 AM PST Sunday for
City of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-
Eastside-Island County-Lowlands of Pierce and Southern
King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern
Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-
Port Townsend Area-San Juan County-Shoreline / Lynnwood /
South Everett Area.
Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Sunday for
Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic Peninsula-
Lake Crescent Area Including US 101-Lower Chehalis River
Valley-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Western Strait of
Juan de Fuca-Willapa and Black Hills.
High Wind Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Sunday
for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
High Surf Warning from 10 PM this evening to 10 PM PST Sunday
for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor
Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM PST Sunday for
Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Sunday for
Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Sunday for
Admiralty Inlet.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST Sunday for
Puget Sound and Hood Canal.
Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM PST Sunday for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion