Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
471
FXUS66 KSEW 110950
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
150 AM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front has introduced a very mild air mass to Western
Washington with near record high temperatures expected today.
A cold front will stall offshore into Thursday with mainly dry
conditions for interior areas and light rain at times near the
coast. A series of frontal systems will bring a return of
widespread rain and occasionally windy conditions Friday into
early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Rain has ended for most areas except for a few showers near the
coast early this morning. Temperatures are extraordinarily mild
across the region in the wake of a warm front that lifted north
across Western Washington late yesterday. Windy conditions will
continue along the coast and across the north interior, but are
expected to ease late today. A cold front will stall offshore
today into Thursday. Areas of light rain will occasionally skirt
the coast and Olympic Peninsula ahead of this boundary, but the
remainder of the area is expected to be largely dry with high
temperatures, especially today, threatening some daily records.
A fairly deep upper trough moving across the Gulf of Alaska will
push an occluded front onshore into the region during the day
on Friday. Fortunately, this system looks like it will be
vertically stacked upon arrival...thereby losing a lot of its
punch before coming ashore. Nonetheless, it will bring another
round of rain along with breezy to locally windy conditions. It
will also churn up some pretty large surf during its offshore
journey with seas of 20+ feet reaching coastal areas again by
Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A trailing upper trough is expected to quickly swing onshore
Friday night. Another potent front approaches the region on
Saturday night. Though this system is also vertically stacked,
the path of the surface low gives it better wind potential,
especially for the coast, along with a fairly deep moisture
feed. And, as such, WPC has placed a large swath of the Olympic
Peninsula under marginal risk in their Excessive Rainfall
Outlook for 12Z Saturday to 12Z Sunday. Plenty of post-frontal
showers are expected to spread onshore into Sunday keeping
things fairly soggy. There`s still decent model agreement with
a brief break for Monday, but the key word is brief. Another wet
and potentially windy front arrives in the Tuesday time frame.
It might have started slow, but November as we know it is well
and truly here now.
27
&&
.AVIATION...
Southwest flow aloft continues into tonight with a stalled
frontal boundary over the offshore waters. Areas of MVFR in
light rain will continue through the morning for coastal areas
while VFR is expected for the interior under varying amounts of
mid and high level cloud cover. Gusty southerly surface winds
along the coast and across the north interior are expected to
ease later today. With lighter surface winds expected tonight,
there is an increased risk of areas of IFR low clouds forming
west of Puget Sound, across the Southwest Interior, and far
south Puget Sound on Thursday morning.
KSEA...VFR with varying amounts of high and mid level clouds
today. Surface winds south to southeasterly 7 to 10 knots
easing to 6 knots or less tonight.
27
&&
.MARINE...
Strong winds will continue to persist across the coastal waters
through much of the day today as a cold front remains stalled
offshore. This front will weaken as it slowly drifts onshore this
evening, allowing winds to slowly ease this evening into early
Thursday morning. Gale Warnings for the coastal waters and East
Strait of Juan de Fuca, and Northern Inland Waters, and Small Craft
Advisories for Admiralty Inlet will continue through evening as
well. Seas 13 to 15 ft this morning may creep slightly upward
towards 16 to 18 ft, but generally remaining in the 14 to 16 ft
range through tonight. Seas will ease to around 11 to 13 ft on
Thursday.
A pair of strong low pressure systems will move across the coastal
waters late Thursday night into Friday, with the second moving
through Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will begin to increase
across the area waters on Thursday. Gales will begin as early as
Thursday afternoon, through winds look to peak overnight into early
Friday morning. Guidance continues to indicate 50-70% chances for
storm force gusts over the outer coastal waters, but confidence has
decreased for the inner coastal waters with high-end gales the more
likely scenario there. Winds will ease Friday night before
increasing again Saturday with a secondary peak Saturday evening.
Gale force winds again are very likely across the coastal waters,
with 40-50% chances for storm force gusts over the outer coastal
waters.
Seas once again will build over the coastal waters on Friday.
With the low center tracking closer towards our area, that will send
the largest waves farther south towards Oregon. That being said,
very large seas are expected, with ensemble guidance continuing to
show very high confidence (>90%) in seas above 20 ft by Friday
evening, with a 25-35% chance of seas above 25 ft through Saturday
morning. Dominant periods will be very long, in the 16-18 s range.
Seas look to briefly ease Saturday morning below 20 ft before
another system will send another round of large, long period waves
on Sunday with high (70-80%) confidence in seas above 20 ft with a
15-30% chance of seas exceeding 25 ft through early Monday.
With these systems, slight shifts in the low tracks will determine
where the strongest wave generation/dynamic fetch regions will be.
While it is looking more likely that the largest waves will be aimed
towards Oregon and California from the Friday/Saturday system, the
Sunday/Monday system favors a more northward track with the largest
waves aimed towards the Washington coast. There is a 5-10% chance of
waves exceeding 30 ft at the peak wave height Sunday night.
62
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Steady rain throughout Tuesday across the Olympic basin
contributed to a rapid rise on the Skokomish River near
Potlatch with the river reaching moderate flood stage late
yesterday evening. The river is expected to slowly recede later
this morning, but additional rainfall over the upcoming weekend
will bring renewed potential for flooding.
River flooding is not expected on the other rivers in the area
in the next 7 days at this time.
27
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for Grays Harbor
County Coast-Island County-Lowlands of Western Skagit and
Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western
Whatcom County-Northern Washington Coast-San Juan County.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM PST this morning for
Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-San Juan County.
Coastal Flood Watch from Friday morning through Friday
afternoon for San Juan County.
High Surf Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Grays
Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Grays Harbor
Bar-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters
Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for Admiralty
Inlet.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM PST
Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To
James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island
To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James
Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion