Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
961
FXUS66 KSEW 042141
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
141 PM PST Wed Mar 4 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Additional weather systems are forecast to move
across the area through the end of the week. Lowland rain,
mountain snow and periods of breezy winds can be expected
through the weekend. Higher mountain snow amounts are possible
early next week with lower snow levels.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...We`re in
post-frontal onshore flow today with a strong westerly push
expected through the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Showers are mostly
over the interior and Cascades with a PSCZ starting to form over
Snohomish and King counties. Main impact will be lowering snow
levels with periods of heavy snow in the Cascades affecting
Stevens Pass. Snow shows will also affect White Pass and
Paradise on Mount Rainer too. The air mass is slightly unstable
with a slight chance of thunderstorms, primarily with the PSCZ
band this afternoon and evening. No strikes so far. Showers
will mostly linger in the Cascades overnight then taper down
Thursday morning as onshore flow eases.
High pressure forms offshore Thursday and Friday with light
warm frontal precipitation reaching the area on Friday. Snow
levels will be rising (over 5,000 ft) with just a few inches on
the higher mountain peaks. Temperatures will track close to
average. 33
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...The flow aloft will
turn westerly this weekend with a frontal system stalled over
the region. Snow levels will fall below pass levels on Sunday
with winter weather impacts possible at both Stevens and
Snoqualmie Pass. We remain cool and wet moving toward midweek
with the potential for heavy mountain snow. A rain/snow mix is
indicated in the lowlands too due to low snow levels. However,
with onshore flow, most impacts (if any) would occur closer to
the west slopes of the mountains. 33
&&
.AVIATION...An upper level trough will bring a cold front and
surface trough through the TAF period. The flow aloft will
transition from southwest to west, but will remain moist. Flight
conditions will continue to remain variable with shower
activity through the evening. The main complex of showers is
with a convergence zone over Snohomish/King Counties this
afternoon. This will continue to slowly drag southward through
the afternoon and evening, affecting Puget Sound terminals.
Ceiling to visibility drops to IFR are likely at times, as well
as brief wind shifts with this shower complex. Terminals outside
the Puget Sound will see varied VFR/MVFR conditions as shower
activity decreases tonight into Thursday, confining to the
Cascades. Probability is greatest for MVFR ceilings most of
Thursday regionwide. Wind magnitudes will remain at 8-12 kt with
occasional gusts to 20 kt (higher gusts likely in the Strait of
Juan de Fuca area). Expect variable winds in the convergence
zone at times from a NW direction, with winds along the coast
also shifting to the NW this afternoon.
KSEA...MVFR conditions with rain likely from a nearby convergence
zone 22Z-01Z this afternoon/evening. Rain may be heavy enough at
times to reduce visibilities/ceilings down to IFR. Shower activity
decreases tonight/Thursday, with MVFR ceilings likely continuing
through the TAF period. Winds SW 8-12 kt with a few gusts to 20 kt
through the afternoon (possible wind shifts to the north with the
convergence zone passing through this afternoon). Magnitude
decreases to 5-10 kt tonight/Thursday.
HPR
&&
.MARINE...A trough/cold frontal system continues to move
through the waters this afternoon. Onshore flow has increased
already along the coast this afternoon, and will work its way
through the Strait of Juan de Fuca tonight/Thursday. A local
upgrade of a small craft advisory to a gale warning was issued
this afternoon for the central/east Strait of Juan de Fuca (due
to HREF/REFS giving a high likelihood of frequent gusts of 35
kt). The small craft advisory was also expanded to include
Admiralty Inlet through Thursday afternoon. The coastal waters
will see winds decrease early Thursday morning, with the threat
transitioning to seas as waves building up to 9-11 ft Thursday.
The flow will remain onshore through the remainder of the
forecast, with the potential for hazardous winds for small
crafts Sunday/Monday, and midweek next week. Seas drop to 5-7 ft
Friday through Saturday, then increase to 9-12 ft Sunday
through Tuesday before decreasing to 7-9 ft Tuesday through
Wednesday.
HPR
&&
.HYDROLOGY...No river flooding is expected over the next seven
days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Cascades
of Pierce and Lewis Counties-Cascades of Snohomish and
Northern King Counties-Cascades of Southern King County.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for West
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST Thursday
for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM PST
Thursday for Admiralty Inlet.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST Thursday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion