Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
285
FXUS66 KSEW 281023
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
323 AM PDT Thu May 28 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low well to the south will weaken and slowly move
northeast tonight and Friday. Upper level trough exiting Gulf of
Alaska will approach the coast Friday. Convection developing
east of the Cascades tonight will weaken and move into the
Western Washington interior Friday morning while a marine push
increases the low level moisture. Low level onshore flow Friday
night and Saturday weakening Sunday with upper level trough
weakening and moving inland Saturday night. Upper level ridge
trying to build Sunday into the first part of next week with low
level offshore flow developing.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Satellite imagery shows small area of stratus in Grays Harbor
county otherwise just some high clouds over the area this
morning. Temperatures at 3am/10z on the mild side, in the 50s.
Upper level low over Central California weakening and moving
northeast today while an upper level trough exits the Gulf of
Alaska. Western Washington in between these features. Low level
flow light with stratus over Grays Harbor county not making it
much further inland. Temperatures aloft are warm, 850 mb temps
around plus 15C. With plenty of sunshine temperatures over the
interior getting into the 70s and lower 80s. Afternoon seabreeze
along the coast will keep highs there in the 60s.
Upper level low continuing to move northeast and weaken tonight.
Convection developing east of the Cascades this evening
weakening and drifting into the Cascades and interior of
Western Washington overnight. In the lower levels marine push
with gales through the Strait of Juan de Fuca increasing the
low level moisture over the area. In all by early Friday morning
cloudy skies with at least a chance of showers from the Puget
Sound eastward. Lows with the cloud cover near 50.
Shower activity lingering into Friday afternoon for the
interior as the air mass cools aloft. 850 mb temperatures down
to plus 3 to 5C by late in the afternoon. Low level onshore flow
keeping clouds in the lower levels. Much cooler with highs only
near 60.
Upper level low weakens into an upper level trough by Friday
night and Saturday as it moves into the Northern Rockies. Trough
offshore weakens as well and remains offshore through Saturday.
Low level onshore flow Friday night weakening Saturday with a
little sunshine Saturday afternoon. Highs still a touch below
normal, upper 50s to mid 60s. Felton
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Extended models in good agreement but not showing much run to
run consistency this morning. What is left of the offshore upper
level trough moving inland Saturday night into Sunday morning.
Upper level ridge beginning to build Sunday afternoon giving
the area more sunshine and slightly warmer temperatures. Highs
in the 60s.
New wrinkle in the extended solution this morning is instead of
the upper level ridge continuing to build over Western
Washington with low level offshore flow developing, the
operational runs have the remnants of the upper level low over
Central California this morning moving west from the Northern
Rockies and forming an upper level low over Eastern Washington
Monday and Tuesday. The ensembles have the operational run
solutions as an outlier and stay with the developing offshore
flow scenario for Monday and Tuesday. Given the unusual nature
of the operational solutions will keep the warming trend intact
Monday and Tuesday with highs in the 70s Monday and 70s to mid
80s Tuesday.
There is better agreement on at least a weak marine push Tuesday
night into Wednesday cooling highs back down into the 70s over
the interior and mid 60s along the coast.
&&
.AVIATION...
South to southeast flow aloft is expected today as a closed upper
low continues to churn over the Great Basin and a broad upper
trough moves into the northeast Pacific. The low level flow will
become increasingly onshore today into tonight. The air mass will
gradually moisten late today and become somewhat unstable over the
higher terrain of the Cascades with isolated showers or
thunderstorms. The moisture will spread across the region tonight
with ceilings lowering to MVFR in showers by Friday morning.
KSEA...VFR today. Clouds increase tonight with ceilings lowering to
MVFR by around 12Z and showers increasing in coverage Friday
morning. Surface winds light and variable will become W/NW 7 to 10
knots this afternoon then northerly for a period this evening. Winds
are then expected to abruptly back to southerly near or after 03Z
and increase to 10 to 15 knots through Friday morning.
27
&&
.MARINE...
High pressure over the offshore and coastal waters will produce
onshore flow. The onshore flow will increase late today and Friday
as low pressure deepens over interior British Columbia and east of
the Cascades. This will result in gusty northwesterly winds and
hazardous seas for the coastal waters into Friday with westerly
gales in the central and east strait this evening through much of
Friday. High pressure will rebuild across the coastal and inland
waters this weekend allowing onshore flow to ease and winds subside.
Thermally induced low pressure will expand northward near the coast
on Tuesday for a brief period of weak offshore flow.
27
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the start of the
next rainy season; it will only be updated during this time as
needed.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 3 PM PDT
Friday for Grays Harbor Bar.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 5 PM PDT
Friday for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
Fuca.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT Friday for
Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT
Friday for Admiralty Inlet.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion