Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
146
FXUS66 KSEW 252317
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
317 PM PST Wed Feb 25 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A weak disturbance will pass over western Washington today through
Friday. While most of the precipitation will fall in the Cascades as
snow, a few showers may pass through the lowlands at times through
this period. Couple breezy south winds up to 25 to 30 miles per hour
are possible on Thursday. The pattern will dry out considerably this
weekend into at least midweek net week, with some sunshine, and
cooler temperatures overnight at times.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
A zonal pattern continues overhead across the region, with a couple
of jet cores located to the north and south of the state. A
trough and upper level low (associated with the southern jet
core) will remain offshore, but a couple of small trough
perturbations (along with a couple of surface troughs) will stay
in the region today through Friday. Heights are falling with
both of these trough features, and despite the weak forcing, it
has been enough to produce some showers across the region this
afternoon. Radar shows most of the precipitation falling in the
Cascades and Olympics (as snow), as well as the north
interior/coastal areas. The precipitation chances through Friday
will remain the highest in the north/central Cascades, and the
north Pacific Coast. Precipitation chances drop to 40-60% chance
in the lowlands in this timeframe. The only precipitation
impact remains snow in the north/central Cascades through
Friday. Confidence remains the same as before with advisory
amounts of snow at Stevens Pass and Mount Baker (with snow
levels around 2,000 - 3,000 ft).
In addition to the precipitation, there is a breezy period expected
with southwest winds most likely reaching 25-30 mph for portions of
Puget Sound, the Northwest Interior, and the Pacific Coast. The
probabilities for higher gusts over 40 mph remains close to 0 in
most places (minus a couple of the Cascade peaks). Highs will
remain around 50, with the increased cloud coverage keeping most
low temperatures dropping from below 40.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The ensembles keep the upper level pattern in motion through the
weekend into next week. The cutoff low will move inland to the south
early next week. A broad ridge will develop over the Pacific later
into the weekend, transitioning the flow aloft to northwesterly.
Sunday and Monday appear to be the sunniest days of the extended
forecast, with northwest flow and the clearer skies dropping
overnight lows into the low to mid 30s (though highs will remain in
the low 50s). Most ensembles favor a system passing through the
middle of next week.
HPR
&&
.AVIATION...
West to northwest flow with moderate low level onshore flow. VFR
conditions with SCT-BKN conditions with ceilings 4000-6000 ft with
showers along the north coast, Olympics and northern Cascades.
Ceilings will lower to around 3000 feet overnight with MVFR ceilings
2000-2500 feet at a few locations early Thursday morning. Breezy
southerly winds will linger for many areas overnight with another
round of gusty southerlies expected to develop for many areas later
Thursday morning.
KSEA...VFR expected with ceilings between 4000-5000 ft, lowering
into Thursday morning but most likely remaining low end VFR. SE
winds around 5 kt becoming S/SW 10 kt.Gusty southerly winds later
Thursday morning with gusts 25-30kt possible.
&&
.MARINE...
Moderate onshore flow prevails through Thursday strongest over the
northern coastal waters and Strait with winds gradually easing on
Friday. Seas will also build over 10 ft on Friday, primarily over
the outer Coastal Waters. The flow will turn offshore over the
weekend and continue into early next week.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding is expected during the next seven days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Cascades of
Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Whatcom
and Skagit Counties.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM to 6 PM PST Thursday for Puget
Sound and Hood Canal.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Thursday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion