Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
072
FXUS66 KSEW 150322
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
822 PM PDT Thu May 14 2026
.SYNOPSIS...A pair of weather systems will produce showers and
unseasonably cool conditions across Western Washington on Friday
and Saturday. Drier and gradually warmer conditions will
develop early next week as a weak upper level ridge begins to
rebuild into the region.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...The next in
series of frontal systems will spread showers and breezy winds
across Western Washington into tonight. A secondary, stronger
system will quickly follow Friday afternoon into Friday night
with a trailing upper trough settling over the area on Saturday.
High temperatures both days will be as much as 10 to 13 degrees
below normal. Along with the cool air mass will come some
instability for isolated thunderstorm activity. The best
probabilities for any storms will be on Saturday when the upper
trough axis is overhead and a fairly potent convergence zone is
likely to form Saturday afternoon. Snow levels will fall to 3500
to 4000 feet in the Cascades on Saturday. As of now,
accumulation at pass levels looks rather minimal, but several
inches could fall higher up at places like Paradise.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...The upper trough axis
will shift eastward on Sunday as low amplitude upper ridging
slowly begins to build into the area. This should allow most of
the area to dry out with temperatures trending upward a
notch...though still a bit below normal. Heights continue to
rise into Monday and Tuesday...though probably not enough to
prevent a weak system passing to our north from clipping the
region with some clouds and perhaps a couple showers across the
North Interior and coast. Looking toward the middle of next week
and beyond, ensemble height anomalies keep persistent upper
troughing in place across the western Canadian provinces...which
suggests that we`ll struggle to get any upper ridging that
lasts. It`s still spring after all. Summer can wait.
27
&&
.AVIATION...Westerly flow aloft throughout the night into
Friday. A mix of VFR/MVFR this evening as showers stream onshore
and likely at times throughout the remainder of the night.
Southwesterly winds 10 to 15 knots will see some gusts up to 20
kts. Gusts will taper into Friday morning with sustained winds
remaining elevated across much of the area.
KSEA...VFR and MVFR conditions have been observed so far this
evening with occasional showers. Southwesterly winds 10 to 15 knots
with occasional gusts up to 20 kts. VFR with MVFR cigs produced by
showers will continue through the majority of the night, with winds
tapering off early Friday morning but remaining around 8 to 12 knots.
Mazurkiewicz/41
&&
.MARINE...Onshore flow will continue over the weekend which
will allow for daily pushes through the Strait of Juan De Fuca.
Wind speeds are expected to largely remain below small craft
criteria this evening, although some isolated gusts up to 21 kts
can be possible at times this evening. Winds will increase over
the coastal waters Saturday into Sunday along with a stronger
push down the Strait that may warrant headlines.
Coastal seas 4 to 6 feet for much of today before rising to 7 to 9
feet tonight. Seas will then increase further on Saturday,
rising from 9 to 11 feet lasting throughout Sunday.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.HYDROLOGY...The daily hydrology discussion has ended until the
start of the next rainy season; it will only be updated during
this time as needed.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion