Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
074
FXUS66 KSEW 091015
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
215 AM PST Mon Nov 9 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Short break in the weather this morning. Next system moving
through Western Washington tonight. Warm front quickly
following Tuesday bringing more rain and wind to the area. Warm
front lifting north Tuesday night into Wednesday. Trailing cold
front stalled offshore Wednesday putting Western Washington in
the warm sector with possible record high temperatures. Cold
front dissipating as it moves inland Thursday. Next system
reaching the area Friday will stall over Western Washington into
Saturday. System moving east Saturday night with an upper level
trough Sunday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Satellite imagery shows cloudy skies this morning. Patchy fog
over the Southwest Interior with local visibilities 3 to 5
miles. Temperatures at 2 am/10z were in the lower to mid 40s.
Short break in the action this morning with the next system to
reach the area still west of 130W. Front will still be offshore
by late afternoon. Rain out ahead of the front reaching the
coast by noon with rain spreading over the interior in the
afternoon. Highs in the mid 50s.
Front moving through the area this evening with rain coming to
an end by midnight. Brief increase in the winds with the front
but winds will not be strong enough for any advisories to be
issued. Lows in the mid to upper 40s.
Fast moving warm front right on the heels of the Monday evening
system with rain spreading back over the area Tuesday morning.
Winds increasing as the front approaches. There is a good chance
wind advisories will be needed for the coast and Northwest
Interior. Highs in the mid to upper 50s.
Warm front lifting north Tuesday night with the front north of
the border Wednesday. Advisory strength winds still likely along
the coast and over the Northwest Interior at least through
Tuesday night and possibly into Wednesday. Trailing cold front
stalled offshore as an upper level trough digs south behind the
cold front. Rain chances confined to the coast and Northwest
Interior by Wednesday morning. Western Washington in the warm
sector Wednesday with highs in the lower to mid 60s. Record
highs are possible. The forecast high for Seattle of 65 degrees
would tie the record set in 1990. Felton
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Extended models have been in good agreement with the warm front
to the north Wednesday night and the cold front dissipating as
it tries to move inland Thursday.
Atmospheric river taking aim at Western Washington Friday with
the river stalling over the area Friday night into Saturday.
Upper level trough kicking the river east Saturday night. Upper
level trough over Western Washington Sunday keeping showers in
the forecast. Snow levels dropping as low as 4000 feet Sunday.
Felton
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevail at most area terminals this morning, through
locations across southwest WA are seeing localized fog, bringing
MVFR to IFR visibilities at times. Elsewhere, the thick higher level
cloud deck should help to limit radiational fog development.
Ceilings will start to lower to MVFR along the coast this afternoon
and across the interior this evening as a frontal system brings a
round of rain across the area. Rain will likely be heavy enough such
that limitations in visibility to 3-5 mi are to be expected.
Ceilings may raise back to low-end VFR behind the frontal passage
overnight tonight, but periods of lower ceilings cannot be ruled
out. More likely and widespread MVFR cigs are expected with the next
round of widespread rain Tuesday morning.
Winds calm to lightly offshore early this morning will start to
increase along the coast this morning, with southeasterly winds
increasing across the rest of the area after this morning. Winds
will peak this evening between 00-06Z with gusts up to 20-25 kt in
this period. Winds will further increase later after 12Z Tue.
KSEA...VFR conditions will continue through this afternoon. MVFR
conditions develop after around 00Z as rain begins to move through
the terminal. Limitations in visibility in the heavier band of rain
will be followed by lowering ceilings. Conditions may temporarily
rise back to MVFR after around 06Z. High confidence in additional
MVFR conditions after 15Z Tue with another round of rain. Light
southeast winds this morning will begin to increase this afternoon
with gusts up to 15-20 kt after 00Z. Winds shift to southwesterly
and ease overnight into early Tuesday.
62
&&
.MARINE...
Winds will begin to increase across the coastal waters through the
morning as the first of a series of frontal systems work their way
across the coastal waters. Winds will peak over the coastal waters
this afternoon and into the early evening over the interior Salish
Sea with high confidence (70-near 100%) in wind gusts reaching gale
force over the coastal waters and the East Entrance to the Strait of
Juan de Fuca. The southeasterlies earlier in the evening will favor
Small Craft conditions through Admiralty Inlet and into the Northern
Inland Waters, then following the frontal passage late this evening,
winds will turn southwesterly and ease briefly over the coastal
waters, but remain elevated over Puget Sound and Hood Canal, which
will have an advisory through early Tuesday morning.
The next system will be right on its tail with winds once again
increasing over the coastal waters early Tuesday morning. Winds will
persist through much of Tuesday and Wednesday as the associated
front stalls offshore before weakening Wednesday night. This will
allow for an extended period of gale force winds over the coastal
waters and also over the northern Salish Sea waters through and
north of Admiralty Inlet through Wednesday night.
Winds look to ease in the lull between systems on Thursday before
the next strong low pressure system approaches the waters Thursday
night. Models are showing a 60-80% chance of storm force gusts over
the coastal waters late Thursday night into Friday with gale force
winds likely over the remaining coastal waters. Winds look to peak
during the day Friday but remain elevated through much of the
weekend with additional systems moving through.
Seas are continuing to slowly ease this morning and should lower to
around 10-12 ft today and tonight before increasing late tonight up
to 17-19 ft on Tuesday. Seas remain there through much of Wednesday
before beginning to ease Wednesday night into Thursday. Seas then
look to rise significantly Friday into the weekend with high
confidence (>60-70%) in waves exceeding 20 ft Friday night into
Saturday. The ECWMF ensemble 50th percentile significant wave height
forecast by Saturday morning is around 25 ft with the 75th
percentile reaching near 30 ft.
62
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
River flooding is not expected through Thursday. Atmospheric
river hanging up over the Olympics Friday into Saturday.
Current rainfall forecast for the South Slopes of the Olympics
in the 3 to 4.5 inch range. Snow levels are not exceeding high,
5000 to 6500 feet, but add in the additional rainfall leading up
to the event this amount of rain will bring a flooding threat
to the Skokomish River at the end of the week.
River flooding not expected on the remainder of the rivers in
the area Friday through Sunday. Felton
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Tuesday for Grays Harbor
Bar-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this evening
for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 10 PM PST this
evening for Admiralty Inlet-Northern Inland Waters
Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST
Tuesday for Puget Sound and Hood Canal.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Gale Warning until 10 AM PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out
10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion