Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
183
FXUS66 KSEW 291919
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
1219 PM PDT Thu Oct 29 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
The low center off Vancouver Island will continue meandering
south through Friday afternoon. As it weakens and moves inland
on Saturday south of the area, conditions will begin to dry out.
An upper level ridge will build on Sunday into early next week.
Weak systems may arrive again by Wednesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Showers are moving inland throughout this afternoon as the
center of the offshore low very slowly makes its way south. Some
of these showers will produce more moderate rainfall, and it`s
still somewhat unstable, so there will be a slight chance of
thunderstorms through this afternoon. Minimum temperatures will
also be decreasing through Saturday morning. A Freeze Watch has
been issued for the lowlands of Lewis and southern Thurston
counties as overnight lows are forecast to be in the upper 20s
to around 32 degrees. There is a chance that the middle Chehalis
river valley may also need a freeze headline as lows there are
approaching the upper 20s. Crops and sensitive vegetation may
die as a result of temperatures that low, so take the proper
precautions to protect things like that if needed.
Saturday will be partly sunny and drier, with no precipitation
expected for any of the festivities taking place around the
region. Highs will be in the mid 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Weak ridging will be building in on Sunday, carrying through to
the middle of the week. A series of weak systems will make it to
the area through the end of the week but at this point are
unlikely to create more than increased cloud cover.
Precipitation is not expected to be significant if it occurs.
Conditions will be fairly homogeneous through the week with
periods of clouds and highs in the mid 50s.
The period of Nov 6 through 12 could feature a return to wetter
conditions, but this will continue to be evaluated as it gets
closer.
21
&&
.AVIATION...
Upper level troughing will continue over western
washington through this afternoon, with spotty showers around
the area. Mostly VFR conditions this afternoon with localized
MVFR ceilings, especially along the coast and areas along the
Southwest Interior. VFR conditions should continue throughout
the evening and into the overnight. Guidance continues to
suggest MVFR ceilings Friday morning across much of the area,
with a continuation of scattered showers around Puget Sound.
Southeasterly winds 3 to 6 knots this afternoon turning more
northeasterly after 00z.
KSEA...VFR conditions this afternoon with showers in and around
the terminal. Conditions will remain VFR throughout the evening.
S/SE winds 3 to 6 knots this afternoon briefly turning N around
00z and transitioning to more a more NE direction into the
overnight hours, with speeds generally remaining light. Latest
guidance suggests ceilings lowering to MVFR Friday morning with
scattered showers near the terminal.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.MARINE...
Low pressure meandering in the offshore waters will
continue offshore low across the waters into the weekend. There
will be a weak disturbance that will cross over the area waters
on Friday that will bring an uptick in winds over the coastal
waters, but at this time it is just below Small Craft Advisory
criteria, generally around 15 to 20 kts.
Marine conditions over the weekend and into the first half of
next week generally look benign with light winds over the
waters.
Coastal seas 4 to 6 feet this evening. Seas will continue to
decrease into the weekend, generally 3 to 5 feet. Seas look to
build early next week to around 10 feet with a long period swell
in the coastal waters.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Freeze Watch from late Friday night through Saturday morning
for Lowlands of Lewis and Southern Thurston Counties.
PZ...None.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion