Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
990
FXUS66 KSEW 262253
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
253 PM PST Thu Feb 26 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Spotty precipitation will linger into Friday followed by drier
and cooler conditions this weekend into early next week before
the next chance of precipitation returns around midweek.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Not a lot of significant variability in the the upper-level
pattern through the short-term. An negatively tilted upper
level low off of the northern California coast will remain in
just the right spot to let some of the precipitation streaming
into British Columbia slip into western Washington - mainly the
Olympic Peninsula and North Cascades into Friday. This has been
spotty showers - rain over the low elevations and mountain snow
above 3000 feet. Breezy southerly winds this afternoon through
much of the interior are expected to ease through the evening
hours. The upstream upper level low will slowly move east of 140
W by Saturday morning, boosting upper level heights over the
Pacific Northwest and helping shift the precipitation fully to
the north into British Columbia through the day Friday.
Conditions will continue to dry Saturday as cooler air begins to
spill in the region, with snowlevels dipping to around 2000 feet
Saturday morning. Low level flow will become weakly offshore.
Morning low temperatures Saturday will range from the mid 30s
near the water and low 30s for interior locations south of Puget
Sound and in the Cascade Foothills. Late February will help
high reach into the upper 40s to near 50 F.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ensemble clusters continue the trend of no significant
variability in the upper level forecast well into early next
week. The upper level low will open up and move into central
California Sunday, maintaining the dry northwesterly flow over
the Pacific Northwest. Variability in the forecast starts to
creep back into the ensembles as an upper level low moves into
the northeast Pacific Tuesday. This continues to look like the
next shot at precipitation for the region with roughly 53% of
the ensemble members hinting at a faster, more progressive
system, and the remaining 47% a slower trend. This system looks
to affect most of the Pacific Northwest midweek, likely
resulting in lowland rain and another round of needed mountain
snow. Daytime highs are expected to remain near normal with cool
overnight lows in the lower to mid 30s.
&&
.AVIATION...
West to northwest flow aloft continues across Western Washington
into Friday as the region remains on the periphery of a frontal
system moving into British Columbia. The low level flow is onshore.
MVFR ceilings are expected to lift to VFR most areas this afternoon.
Ceilings are then expected to sink back to MVFR across the region
again overnight into Friday morning. A return to VFR areawide
is expected again Friday afternoon and evening. Locally gusty south
to southwest surface winds will ease this evening.
KSEA...High end MVFR ceilings are expected to lift to BKN040-060
this afternoon into the evening hours. Ceilings will deteriorate
again tonight with a general OVC020-030 layer expected 09Z-20Z
Friday before lifting again. Surface winds S/SW 10-15 gusting 20-25
knots easing to 8 to 11 knots after 00Z.
27
&&
.MARINE...
Surface high pressure will build into the coastal and inland waters
on Friday allowing onshore flow to gradually relax. High pressure
over the interior of British Columbia and lower pressure to south of
the waters will turn the flow more northerly or weakly offshore over
the weekend. The first of a series of frontal systems is expected to
approach the waters on Tuesday.
Coastal seas will hover near 10 feet...especially across the outer
waters...into Friday before subsiding back to the 4 to 7 foot range
and remaining as such through Tuesday.
27
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
No river flooding is expected during the next seven days.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for Cascades of
Snohomish and Northern King Counties-Cascades of Whatcom
and Skagit Counties.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday for Central U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Coastal Waters From Cape
Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters
From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60
Nm-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for East
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern
Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PST this evening for Puget
Sound and Hood Canal.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion