Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
815
FXUS66 KSEW 021628
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
928 AM PDT Tue Jun 2 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Upper level ridge over the area today with low
level offshore flow. Today could be the warmest day of the year
so far. The ridge will weaken tonight with the low level flow
turning onshore. Upper level trough moving through Wednesday
with unsettled weather continuing into the first part of next
week. Cold upper level low moving into the area Saturday for a
chance of thunderstorms.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Satellite imagery shows
band of high clouds from near the San Juan Islands down to
around Goldendale. Mostly clear skies over the remainder of the
area. Wide range of temperatures with mid 40s in the calm wind
locations to lower 60s in locations with some east wind
exposure.
Low level flow offshore this morning will weaken this afternoon.
Temperatures aloft are warm but not near record levels. Model
850 mb temperatures this afternoon in the plus 14C-18C range.
This combined with the low level offshore flow will give the
area highs mostly in the 80s. Lower 90s possible in the warmer
locations like the Cascade Foothills and the Southwest
Interior. The Central Coast will be the first to see the
transition to onshore flow this afternoon keeping highs mostly
in the 70s along the beaches. Forecast high of 85 in Seattle
would be the first 85 degree plus day of the year. This is a
little ahead of schedule with the average first 85 degree plus
day June 10th ( earliest April 18, 2016 (89), 1954 and 1957 did
not have an 85 degree plus day ).
Low level flow turning onshore across the entire area this
evening. Upper level trough approaching offshore will lower the
surface pressure enough to prevent gales through the Strait.
High clouds out ahead of the trough moving over Western
Washington overnight keeping lows in the 50s.
Upper level trough moving through Wednesday plus low level
onshore flow giving the area a 15-20 degree cool down with
highs in the 60s and lower 70s under mostly cloudy to cloudy
skies. Trough axis over the Cascades in the afternoon for a
chance of showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms.
Increasing onshore behind the trough Wednesday night will
continue into Thursday. Convergence zone forming over the
Central Puget Sound late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning
for a chance of light showers or drizzle through Thursday
morning. Onshore flow keeping skies at least mostly cloudy
with highs again in the 60s and lower 70s. Lows Thursday morning
in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Felton
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...Upper level
trofiness Thursday night through Friday night with low level
onshore flow. Increasing shower chances Friday night. Cool upper
level low moving over the area Saturday. Model 500 mb
temperatures in the -25C to -29C range. Air mass unstable
Saturday especially in the afternoon with lifted indexes in the
0 to -3 range and convective temperatures in the mid to upper
50s. There is even a little CAPE present, 300-500 J/KG. Have a
chance of afternoon thunderstorms for portions of the area. Low
kicks out Saturday night. Another upper level low behind it
currently projected to move inland to the south Monday. Cool
Friday and Saturday with highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s.
Highs trending back towards normal Sunday and Monday, 60s and
lower 70s.
&&
.AVIATION...An upper level ridge/thermal trough will shift
eastward today - expect the flow aloft to transition to
westerly. The flow will turn more onshore Tuesday into Wednesday
as a trough moves inland. VFR expected to prevail today with
mostly clear skies. Mid to high cloud cover will increase
tonight for interior terminals, with a line of lower stratus
developing along the coast. Current probabilities indicate a
25-30% chance of LIFR cigs along the coast after 06z. A few
showers possible on Wednesday. Northerly winds 4-7 kt will then
shift southerly this evening around 5-7 kt, increasing to 8-12
kt after 11z-13z.
KSEA...VFR with clear skies today. Mid to high clouds will increase
in coverage tonight. W/NW winds 4-8 kt, becoming southwesterly after
06z-08z. Southwesterly winds will increase after 11z, to 8-12 kt.
HPR/29
&&
.MARINE...A thermal trough under a ridge will begin to shift
inland this afternoon, with offshore flow returning to onshore.
A trough/front will move through on Wednesday, with high
pressure building in behind the trough resulting in stronger
onshore gradients. Few showers will also be possible with this
system over the waters. The winds will pick up Wednesday into
Thursday for the eastern two thirds of the Strait of Juan de
Fuca. A small craft advisory was issued for the first round of
winds Wednesday for this area. The push on Thursday is expected
to be the strongest, although recent ensemble guidance lowered
the probability of gale gusts. The pushes through the remainder
of the week are much weaker, and do not have enough likelihood
of producing marine impacts.
Seas will vary from 4-6 to 6-8 ft at times of the week, but again
likely to remain below any impactful levels for small craft.
HPR
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and warm today with light offshore flow
into the afternoon hours. High temperatures in the 80s and a few
spots touching 90. Winds will be light, but a few easterly
gusts 10-15 mph near the Cascades and over the exposed ridgetops
remain possible. Daytime RHs will bottom out near 20%. Even
though this is a short warm up and fuels have not reached
critical levels lets be careful out there. Onshore flow kicking
in tonight bringing higher humidities Wednesday. Temperatures
near to a little below normal Wednesday into the first part of
next week. Felton
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 2 AM Wednesday to 5 AM PDT Thursday
for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion