Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
017
FXUS66 KSEW 141002
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
202 AM PST Sat Nov 14 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Another frontal system will bring a return of rain and windy
conditions later today into Sunday. A trend toward drier and
cooler conditions is expected toward the middle portion of next
week as the storm track shifts south of Western Washington.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper trough axis is moving onshore over Western Washington
early this morning as another, more vigorous system approaches
the region just offshore. A combination of high tide and low
atmospheric pressure will bring a renewed threat of minor
coastal flooding to the San Juans and Western Whatcom county
this morning. Seas in excess of 20 feet continue along coast
beaches. Rain and wind will increase along the coast later this
afternoon with rain spreading inland this evening into the
overnight hours. Windy conditions will also develop tonight near
the east entrance to the strait and adjacent areas with some
gusts of 45-55 mph.
The front will shift east of the Cascades by early Sunday
afternoon with winds gradually easing and post-frontal showers
across the area. A cooler air mass will follow the front...so
there will be enough instability for isolated thunderstorms...especially
near the coast. Snow levels will fall to around 4000 feet Sunday
night, but QPF will be light by this time for just light
accumulation at some of the higher passes. An upper level trough
will remain over the area on Monday for scattered showers mainly
coast and higher terrain and high temperatures back to around
seasonal levels.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Drier conditions return to the area Monday night into Tuesday as
the upper trough shifts eastward. Model solutions are falling
into better agreement regarding the midweek system taking a
further southward track and just brushing the southern portion
of the CWA with some light precip on Wednesday. Ensembles favor
cool and generally dry conditions to finish off next week with
the potential for more active conditions returning thereafter.
27
&&
.AVIATION...
Southerly flow aloft this morning turning southwest later today as a
frontal system pushes towards the region. Mostly VFR so far with
areas of MVFR under heavier shower activity (coast and Olympic
Peninsula). A vigorous front is slated to arrive this evening along
the coast before spreading inland as the night progress. Shower
activity will transition to steadier rainfall as a mix of VFR/MVFR
conditions become more widespread. Southerly surface winds with
gusts up to 25-30 kt across the entire area by late tonight. Winds
will remain breezy into Sunday but less widespread. Areas of MVFR
conditions will lead into Sunday morning as well.
KSEA...VFR conditions with vicinity showers throughout the day. The
next front is slated to arrive tonight with steadier rainfall and
gusty winds. Surface winds remain southerly, fluctuating between SE
at times. Gusts up to 25 kt possible late tonight into early Sunday
morning.
41
&&
.MARINE...
Numerous headlines remain in place as we`re currently in between
systems. SCA advisories are in effect this morning but as the day
progresses, strong winds are slated to become more widespread as
Gales become common across interior waters (minus Puget Sound but a
SCA at the least may be needed) and Storm Force winds arrive for all
of the coastal waters. The culprit is a sub 965 mb surface low
swinging a cold front across the region this evening into the night
hours. Along with winds, high seas are forecast around 20 ft today
with a dominant period of 17 to 18 seconds, highly energetic. Seas
will gradually decrease to 15 to 20 ft by Sunday morning. An
additional increase to 20 to 25 appears likely in the afternoon.
South winds will ease a bit on Sunday, but remain elevated
especially for the Coastal Waters.
Winds subside further Monday into early Tuesday before increasing
again going into midweek with a stronger weather system moving
southwards well offshore. Confidence is leading towards developing
high pressure for next weekend as benign conditions appear to be on
the horizon.
41
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The potential for flooding continues on the Skokomish River
with periods of heavy rainfall through the weekend. A Flood
Watch remains in effect.
River flooding is not expected on the other rivers in the area
in the next 7 days at this time.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM this morning to noon PST
today for Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-San Juan
County.
Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Sunday for
Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast-San
Juan County.
Flood Watch through late tonight for Olympia and Southern
Puget Sound-Olympics-Southern Hood Canal.
High Surf Warning until noon PST today for Grays Harbor County
Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor
Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for
Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan
De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
Islands-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM PST Sunday for
Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST Sunday for
Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan
De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan
Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Storm Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 1 AM PST Sunday for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 1 AM PST Sunday for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion