Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
787
FXUS66 KSEW 130502
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
902 PM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
.UPDATE...
Satellite imagery shows plenty of high clouds over Western
Washington this evening. Doppler radar has the rain associated
with the approaching front well offshore at 8 PM/04Z.
Temperatures were in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Bellingham`s high
of 68 today tied for the 5th warmest November day on record.
Wednesday tied for the second warmest November day on record in
Bellingham.
Current forecast on track with rain starting along the coast in
Friday morning with the rain spreading inland in the afternoon.
The combination of high tides and wind will result in possible
significant coastal flooding in the San Juans and minor coastal
flooding along the coast and Puget Sound, including the Seattle
area along Puget Sound.
Second system arriving later Saturday will bring more rain and
will be the windier of the next two systems.
Current forecast on track. Updated aviation and marine sections
below. Felton
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front remains stalled offshore today with
mainly dry conditions for interior areas and light rain at times
near the coast. A series of frontal systems will bring a return
of widespread rain and occasionally windy conditions Friday
into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
A frontal system
remains stalled offshore today for another dry and mild day
across western WA. Temperatures continue to track warmer than
average with highs around 60. East winds will increase across
the Cascade tonight with gusts to 20-30 MPH in the gaps and
foothills.
The stalled frontal system will slowly track east and inland on
Friday with the bulk of the rain along the coast. Rain will
spread inland mid to late morning and afternoon with around a
tenth to a quarter inch for most areas. High astronomical tide
and lower pressure may lead to minor to moderate coastal
flooding. The timing would be around the time of high tide
Friday morning. In addition, large waves will reach the coast
with seas of 20 ft and a High Surf Advisory is in effect.
Another strong Pacific frontal system is poised to impact the
Pac NW Saturday-Sunday for more rain, gusty winds and high
elevation snow. Rain-wise, we`re looking at another 1-3 inches
of rain along the coast this weekend with 0.50-1.00 inches in
the interior. Additional rainfall in the Olympics will keep the
Skokomish River running high with the potential for flooding.
It`ll be windy too with the potential for strong wind gusts
along the coast of 40-50 MPH. Interior areas will see gusts of
30-40 MPH (winds peaking Saturday night). 33
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Showers will linger on
Sunday and Monday with a trough over the region. Snow levels
will lower to around 4000 ft on Monday with just light snow
amounts in the mountains. Temperatures will track closer to
average with lows in the lower 40s and highs in the lower 50s.
The next system slated for midweek is pushing south toward
Oregon with some wrap-around moisture clipping our southern
border. A Rex Block pattern sets up over the West late in the
week with drier conditions forecast for western WA. 33
&&
.AVIATION...
A stalled front remains offshore this evening. Majority of terminals
are VFR this evening with some mist being reported around KOLM down
to MVFR/IFR. The front will gain momentum inland tonight into Friday
with showers expected to spread inland. Low level wind shear may
impact terminals as the frontal system moves through. Ceilings will
likely briefly dip to MVFR as the rain pushes through Friday
morning, though conditions are favored to remain predominantly VFR
for much of the day. The exception will be along the coast, where
IFR conditions are expected to develop by Friday morning and
continue throughout the day in rain, low ceilings, and mist. Post
frontal showers will develop Friday afternoon, with slight chances
for a few lightning strikes along the coast (confidence too low to
include in TAFs at this time). Surface winds will generally remain
south/southeast through the period, with winds generally 5-10 kt
with gusts to 20 kt for the Puget Sound terminals and higher gusts
up to 30 to 40 kt along the coast and over the mountains.
KSEA...VFR conditions with high clouds will continue into the mid
morning. A frontal system will push inland between 12z-18z, bringing
rain and potential for low level wind shear at the terminal. While
conditions are expected to remain predominantly VFR, MVFR may
briefly develop in heavier rain showers. Winds will generally remain
out of the south or southeast around 10 kt or less, with gusts to 20
kt developing at the terminal Friday afternoon.
15/HPR
&&
.MARINE...
Small Craft Advisories for the East Strait of Juan de Fuca and Grays
Harbor Bar will continue through the evening as SCAs transition to a
Gale Warning over the coastal waters this evening as a stalled
frontal system begins to push inland. The strongest winds will occur
over the coastal waters later this evening into early Friday
morning, reaching high end gale force. An occasional storm force
gust cannot be ruled out, particularly over the outer coastal
waters. Winds will remain elevated over the coastal waters and over
the East Entrance of the Strait of Juan de Fuca throughout the day
Friday, with Small Craft winds picking up over the northern inland
waters late Friday as the front shifts eastward.
While winds over the inner waters remain elevated into Saturday
morning, winds over the coastal waters will briefly decrease. A
Small Craft Advisory has been issued for seas during this lull in
wind, with an even stronger frontal system moving in close behind.
Ensembles continue to show strong potential for Storm Force winds
over the outer waters on Saturday, with an 60% to 70% chance of
maximum wind gusts exceeding 50 knots over the outer coastal waters.
Small Craft winds are favored to continue on Sunday, at least over
the coastal waters and potentially over some of the inner waters as
well. Conditions are favored to calm by Monday, with potential for
continued windy conditions over the waters returning by Tuesday.
Seas will remain elevated through the weekend as a series of dynamic
systems cross area waters. Friday`s system will bring very large
seas to the Washington coast, with high confidence in waves building
to 20 feet or above by Friday afternoon, with waves across the
coastal waters as high as 26-27 feet. These large waves will also be
very energetic, with a dominant period of 18 to 22 seconds. Seas
will remain elevated through Saturday morning and will briefly ease
a bit into early Sunday, remaining between 14 to 18 feet. Another
system will send another round of large, long period waves on Sunday
with another round of waves likely 20 feet or higher through early
Monday. Seas look to ease a bit after Monday, but will likely stay
in the 12-15 foot range heading into the middle of next week.
15
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The potential for flooding continues on the
Skokomish River with periods of heavy rainfall Friday through
the weekend. A Flood Watch remains in effect.
River flooding is not expected on the other rivers in the area
in the next 7 days at this time.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Coastal Flood Warning from 6 AM to noon PST Friday for San
Juan County.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 AM to noon PST Friday for City
of Seattle-Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern
Kitsap County-Island County-Lowlands of Pierce and
Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and
Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western
Whatcom County-Northern Hood Canal-Olympia and Southern
Puget Sound-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-
Southern Hood Canal.
Flood Watch from 4 AM PST Friday through late Saturday night
for Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Southern
Hood Canal.
High Surf Advisory from noon Friday to 7 AM PST Saturday for
Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM to 5 PM PST Friday for Grays
Harbor County Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Saturday for Grays Harbor
Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for East Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM PST Saturday
for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Friday to 1 AM PST Saturday for
Admiralty Inlet.
Gale Warning until 7 PM PST Friday for Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out
10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Friday to 1 AM PST Saturday for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion