Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
086
FXUS66 KSEW 151125
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
325 AM PST Sun Nov 15 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Cold front has moved east of the Cascades early this morning.
Cool upper level trough remaining offshore through Monday before
moving inland Monday night. Next system moving southeast
Tuesday will move inland Wednesday south of the area. Short
blocked upper level pattern Wednesday night through Friday
giving Western Washington a dry spell. Next system weakening as
it approaches Saturday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Satellite imagery and surface observations show cold front has
moved east of the Cascades early this morning. Doppler radar has
a line of post frontal showers between the coast and Puget Sound
at 3 AM/11Z. Temperatures even with the frontal passage were
still in the upper 40s to mid 50s.
Band moving through early this morning will be the most
organized shower activity of the day. Satellite imagery shows
plenty of cold cu off the coast but the parent low associated
with the trough is moving north northwest towards the Gulf of
Alaska. This will pull the coldest post frontal air northwest of
the area through Monday. Air mass somewhat unstable so showers
remaining in the forecast with the highest pops along the coast.
Snow levels near 5000 feet only lowering to 3500 to 4000 feet by
Monday. A few inches of new snow in the higher elevations today
but by the time the snow levels drop down to the pass levels
new snow accumulations will be light. High temperatures today,
in the lower to mid 50s, could occur this morning with little
change in the temperatures throughout the day. A little cooler
Monday with highs a couple of degrees either side of 50. Lows
tonight in the mid 30s to lower 40s.
A coastal flood advisory remains in effect for the Northern
Inland Waters this morning between 8 am and noon for possible
minor coastal flooding with the combination of high tides,
lower surface pressure and winds.
Current wave forecasts are a little lower than previous
forecasts for later today into Monday morning. Have cancelled
the high surf warning for the beaches beginning at 10 am this
morning and extended the high surf advisory through Monday
morning. The beaches will still be a dangerous place to be even
with an advisory. Still could see waves in the 20 foot range
into Monday morning.
Upper level trough moving through the area Monday night keeping
a chance of showers in the forecast. Snow levels 3500 to 4000
feet but not much in the way of moisture with the trough
passage. Lows in the lower 30s to lower 40s.
Split flow aloft Tuesday with the next system digging south well
off the coast giving Western Washington a dry day. Light surface
gradients in the morning could produce areas of low clouds or
fog. Even with some afternoon sunshine highs remaining near 50.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Models in good agreement with the mid week system moving inland
south of the area. The Southwest Interior could get brushed by
the northern portion of the system Wednesday. Short lived upper
level blocking pattern setting up Wednesday night through Friday
with an upper level ridge to the north and an upper level low
to the south keeping Western Washington dry. If the models light
surface gradient scenario works out there could be areas of fog
Thursday and Friday morning.
Model solutions showing more variability Saturday as the next
system develops off the coast. No real clear winner in the
ensembles so for now will go with a broadbrush chance of rain.
Highs staying around 50 through the period. Lows in the 30s and
lower 40s cooling to the upper 20s and 30s Thursday through
Saturday.
The first two weeks of November have been quite mild. For
Seattle the average temperature of 51.6 is the 5th warmest in
82 years of records at Seattle-Tacoma airport. Saturday was the
6th day of the month with a high in the 60s. Only three
Novembers have had more 60 degree plus days, 2016 with 9 days,
1976 with 8 days and 1949 with 7 days. With the 3 am temperature
of 55 degrees this makes the 13th day in a row with a high of
at least 55 degrees in Seattle. This is the longest streak of
its kind. The previous longest, two 12 days streaks November
1-12, 2016 and November 3-14, 1949. Felton
&&
.AVIATION...
A strong front has moved through the area with southwest winds
aloft. Can`t rule out a brief period of MVFR cigs under heavier
showers today otherwise ceilings look to remain VFR. There is a low
(15-20%) chance of isolated thunderstorms, mainly along the coast
this afternoon. Breezy winds are to remain today with continued
gusts of 15-25 kt before gradually decreasing tonight. Can`t rule
out gusts near 30 kt for KBLI.
KSEA...VFR throughout the period. Surface winds southerly but could
sway between the SW and SE at times. Winds mainly 8-12 kt before
gradually decreasing to 3-6 kt later tonight. Can`t rule out
isolated gusts near 20 kt this afternoon.
41
&&
.MARINE...
A vigorous front has pushed east of the waters but elevated winds
and seas will remain today. The previous Storm Force warning for the
coastal waters has expired. Any lingering Gale Warnings will be
allowed to expire later this morning but SCAs will remain throughout
the day for both inner and outer waters. Winds will gradually ease
over the waters and later tonight. Waves 15-18 ft this morning will
rise to 20-25 ft this afternoon with the highest waves over the
offshore waters. High pressure is still on track to build across the
area on Monday allowing for a brief reprieve. Winds are to be
generally benign as seas lower to 10-12 ft, still SCA for the
coastal waters but much lower than we`ve seen recently.
A low pressure system will form over the open northeast Pacific and
move off south and away from WA`s coastal waters Tuesday into
Wednesday before tracking into CA later on Wednesday. While somewhat
distant, this system will allow winds to turn offshore and increase,
as well as increasing waves for the next round of headlines mid-
week. Calmer conditions under high pressure are then favored
Thursday into the end of the week.
41
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The post frontal band of showers is still producing significant
rain amounts over the south slopes of the Olympics. In the 3
hour period between midnight and 3 AM rainfall totals in this
area have been in the 0.30 to 0.60 inch range. Heavier showers
will be coming to an end this morning. The Skokomish River near
Potlatch is three tenths of a foot below flood stage right now.
This last shot of rain will push the river just over flood stage
later this morning. A flood warning is already out and will
continue for the Skokomish. The river will recede back below
flood stage late today or early Monday. The river will remain
below flood stage for the remainder of the week.
River flooding not expected on the remainder of the rivers in
the area for the next 7 days. Felton
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST early this morning for Grays
Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast-San Juan
County.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 AM this morning to noon PST
today for Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-San Juan
County.
Wind Advisory until 7 AM PST this morning for Island County-
Port Townsend Area.
High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST this morning for Grays
Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
High Surf Warning from 10 AM this morning to 10 AM PST Monday
for Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Monday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-Grays Harbor Bar.
Gale Warning until 4 AM PST early this morning for Central
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for West
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 7 AM PST this morning for Admiralty Inlet-
East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern
Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 4 AM PST Monday
for Admiralty Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of
Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters Including The San
Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST this afternoon for Puget
Sound and Hood Canal.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion