Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
424
FXUS66 KSEW 111631
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
831 AM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
.SYNOPSIS...A warm front has introduced a very mild air mass to
Western Washington with near record high temperatures expected
today. A cold front will stall offshore into Thursday with
mainly dry conditions for interior areas and light rain at times
near the coast. A series of frontal systems will bring a return
of widespread rain and occasionally windy conditions Friday
into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...Winds remain gusty along
the coast and North Interior this morning. Lastest guidance
shows winds easing this afternoon. Minor coastal flooding is
expected in the San Juans and western Wahtcom county this
morning with high tide - a Coastal Flood Advisory remains in
effect. 33
Previous discussion...Rain has ended for most areas except for
a few showers near the coast early this morning. Temperatures
are extraordinarily mild across the region in the wake of a warm
front that lifted north across Western Washington late
yesterday. Windy conditions will continue along the coast and
across the north interior, but are expected to ease late today.
A cold front will stall offshore today into Thursday. Areas of
light rain will occasionally skirt the coast and Olympic
Peninsula ahead of this boundary, but the remainder of the area
is expected to be largely dry with high temperatures, especially
today, threatening some daily records.
A fairly deep upper trough moving across the Gulf of Alaska will
push an occluded front onshore into the region during the day
on Friday. Fortunately, this system looks like it will be
vertically stacked upon arrival...thereby losing a lot of its
punch before coming ashore. Nonetheless, it will bring another
round of rain along with breezy to locally windy conditions. It
will also churn up some pretty large surf during its offshore
journey with seas of 20+ feet reaching coastal areas again by
Friday night.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...A trailing upper
trough is expected to quickly swing onshore Friday night.
Another potent front approaches the region on Saturday night.
Though this system is also vertically stacked, the path of the
surface low gives it better wind potential, especially for the
coast, along with a fairly deep moisture feed. And, as such, WPC
has placed a large swath of the Olympic Peninsula under
marginal risk in their Excessive Rainfall Outlook for 12Z
Saturday to 12Z Sunday. Plenty of post-frontal showers are
expected to spread onshore into Sunday keeping things fairly
soggy. There`s still decent model agreement with a brief break
for Monday, but the key word is brief. Another wet and
potentially windy front arrives in the Tuesday time frame. It
might have started slow, but November as we know it is well and
truly here now.
27
&&
.AVIATION...Southwest flow aloft continues into tonight with a
stalled frontal boundary over the offshore waters. Areas of MVFR
in light rain will continue through the morning for coastal
areas while VFR is expected to continue throughout the day for
the interior under varying amounts of mid and high level cloud
cover. Gusty southerly surface winds along the coast and across
the north interior are expected to ease later this afternoon.
With lighter surface winds expected tonight, there is an
increased risk of areas of IFR low clouds forming west of Puget
Sound, across the Southwest Interior, and far south Puget Sound
on Thursday morning.
KSEA...VFR with varying amounts of high and mid level clouds today.
Surface winds south to southeasterly 7 to 10 knots with gusts
to 20 kt in the early afternoon easing to 6 knots or less tonight.
27/15
&&
.MARINE...Strong winds will continue to persist across the
coastal waters through much of the day today as a cold front
remains stalled offshore. This front will weaken as it slowly
drifts onshore this evening, allowing winds to slowly ease this
evening into early Thursday morning. Gale Warnings for the
coastal waters and East Strait of Juan de Fuca, and Northern
Inland Waters, and Small Craft Advisories for Admiralty Inlet
will continue through evening as well. Seas 13 to 15 ft this
morning may creep slightly upward towards 16 to 18 ft, but
generally remaining in the 14 to 16 ft range through tonight.
Seas will ease to around 11 to 13 ft on Thursday.
A pair of strong low pressure systems will move across the coastal
waters late Thursday night into Friday, with the second moving
through Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will begin to increase
across the area waters on Thursday. Gales will begin as early as
Thursday afternoon, through winds look to peak overnight into early
Friday morning. Guidance continues to indicate 50-70% chances for
storm force gusts over the outer coastal waters, but confidence has
decreased for the inner coastal waters with high-end gales the more
likely scenario there. Winds will ease Friday night before
increasing again Saturday with a secondary peak Saturday evening.
Gale force winds again are very likely across the coastal waters,
with 40-50% chances for storm force gusts over the outer coastal
waters.
Seas once again will build over the coastal waters on Friday.
With the low center tracking closer towards our area, that will send
the largest waves farther south towards Oregon. That being said,
very large seas are expected, with ensemble guidance continuing to
show very high confidence (>90%) in seas above 20 ft by Friday
evening, with a 25-35% chance of seas above 25 ft through Saturday
morning. Dominant periods will be very long, in the 16-18 s range.
Seas look to briefly ease Saturday morning below 20 ft before
another system will send another round of large, long period waves
on Sunday with high (70-80%) confidence in seas above 20 ft with a
15-30% chance of seas exceeding 25 ft through early Monday.
With these systems, slight shifts in the low tracks will determine
where the strongest wave generation/dynamic fetch regions will be.
While it is looking more likely that the largest waves will be aimed
towards Oregon and California from the Friday/Saturday system, the
Sunday/Monday system favors a more northward track with the largest
waves aimed towards the Washington coast. There is a 5-10% chance of
waves exceeding 30 ft at the peak wave height Sunday night.
62
&&
.HYDROLOGY...Steady rain throughout Tuesday across the Olympic
basin contributed to a rapid rise on the Skokomish River near
Potlatch with the river reaching moderate flood stage late
yesterday evening. The river is expected to slowly recede later
this morning, but additional rainfall over the upcoming weekend
will bring renewed potential for flooding.
River flooding is not expected on the other rivers in the area
in the next 7 days at this time.
27
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for Grays Harbor
County Coast-Island County-Lowlands of Western Skagit and
Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western
Whatcom County-Northern Washington Coast-San Juan County.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for
Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-San Juan County.
High Surf Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Grays
Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Thursday for Grays Harbor
Bar-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters
Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST this evening for Admiralty
Inlet.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM PST
Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To
James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island
To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James
Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James
Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion