Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
819
FXUS66 KSEW 140432
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
832 PM PST Fri Nov 13 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A series of frontal systems will bring a return of widespread
rain and occasionally windy conditions through the weekend. A
trend toward drier and cooler conditions are expected toward the
middle portion of next week as the storm track shifts south of
Western Washington.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
The latest forecast remains on track this evening with no
updates. A trough will push inland tonight and Saturday, ahead
of the next strong Pacific frontal system. Pressure is a little
higher Saturday morning and coastal flooding is confined to the
San Juan Islands and western Whatcom County during the morning
high tide. The main impacts with this second system will be
strong winds (coast and San Juans), periods of heavy rain (coast
and Olympics), and large waves (coast). Winds will peak
Saturday night into early Sunday morning. For precipitation
totals through the weekend, we are looking at another 1-3" along
the coast with 0.50-1.00" in the interior. Most of the rain
will fall Saturday night. Due to additional heavy rain in the
Olympics, the Skokomish River is at risk of flooding and a Flood
Watch remains in effect. In addition, this system is generating
large waves offshore that will reach the WA coast this weekend
leading to High Surf conditions. 33
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
We`re under broad, longwave troughing Sunday and Monday for
isolated to scattered showers. Temperatures will track closer to
average with lows in the 40s and highs in the lower 50s. An
upper low will shift E/SE and into Oregon midweek, with some
light moisture clipping the WA/OR border. A Rex Block pattern
forms toward the end of week over the West. This blocking
pattern keeps western WA dry through the end of the week. 33
&&
.AVIATION...
South flow aloft continues into tonight before transitioning
more southwest on Saturday as the next frontal system approaches
the Pacific Northwest. Showers continuing along the coast this
evening. Predominantly VFR conditions continue into Saturday
with periodic MVFR cigs mainly along the Olympic Peninsula and
OLM westwards. Post-frontal isolated showers expected tonight
into Saturday. The next front arrives Saturday evening along the
coast and moves inland Saturday night with increasing rain and
winds. Surface winds into Saturday remain southerly with
localized gusts to 25 kts along the coast and KBLI.
KSEA...VFR conditions with light rain into this evening. VFR cigs
with continued mid level clouds through Saturday. The next front
arrives Saturday evening into Saturday night for increasing rain.
Surface winds remain southerly, fluctuating between SE/SW at times
into Saturday.
JD/Mazurkiewicz
&&
.MARINE...
A Gale Warning remains in place through this evening across the
Coastal Waters with SCA for portions of the interior waters. A
brief break early Saturday before southerly winds increase again
Saturday ahead of a stronger weather system offshore. A Storm
Force Warning has been issued for the outer Coastal Waters
Saturday afternoon into Saturday night with gusts of 45 to 55
kts during this period. A Storm Force Watch remains in affect
for the inner Coastal Waters. Gale Warnings and Watches are also
in affect for the western Strait of Juan de Fuca, Admiralty
Inlet, eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca, and northern inland
waters Saturday night. Additional headlines may be necessary for
Puget Sound and the central Strait of Juan de Fuca with the
next system. South winds will ease a bit on Sunday, but remain
elevated, especially for the Coastal Waters. Winds subside
further Monday into early Tuesday before increasing again going
into midweek with a stronger weather system moving southwards
well offshore.
Seas of 20 to 25 feet are expected into Saturday morning. Seas then
range 15 to 20 feet Saturday into Saturday night, building again
towards 22 feet for the outer Coastal Waters again Sunday. These
large waves will also be energetic with a dominant period of 17 to
20 seconds into Saturday. Seas remain elevated before subsiding to
10 to 15 feet on Tuesday. JD
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The potential for flooding continues on the Skokomish River
with periods of heavy rainfall through the weekend. A Flood
Watch remains in effect.
River flooding is not expected on the other rivers in the area
in the next 7 days at this time.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 7 AM to noon PST Saturday for
Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-San Juan County.
Wind Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 4 AM PST Sunday for Grays
Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast-San Juan
County.
Flood Watch through late Saturday night for Olympia and
Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Southern Hood Canal.
High Surf Warning until noon PST Saturday for Grays Harbor
County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST Saturday for Grays Harbor
Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Saturday for Admiralty
Inlet-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands-
West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday night
for West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning from 4 PM Saturday to 7 AM PST Sunday for East
Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern
Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Gale Watch from Saturday afternoon through Sunday morning for
Admiralty Inlet.
Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM PST Saturday for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through late Saturday
night for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Storm Warning from 1 PM Saturday to 1 AM PST Sunday for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion