Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
457
FXUS66 KSEW 121702
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
902 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
.SYNOPSIS...A cold front remains stalled offshore today with
mainly dry conditions for interior areas and light rain at times
near the coast. A series of frontal systems will bring a return
of widespread rain and occasionally windy conditions Friday
into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...Minor coastal flooding is
observed on the tide gauge at Friday Harbor with high tide this
morning. Will look into for widespread potential for coastal
flooding with tomorrow`s high tide as well. 33
Previous discussion...Much like yesterday, a front remains
stalled offshore with a very mild air mass in place across the
region. Clouds will stream across the area throughout the day
ahead with periods of light rainfall skirting the coast and
Olympic Peninsula as the interior remains mostly dry. Models
remain largely unchanged with the overall pattern heading into
the conclusion of the week. A vertically stacked system moving
into the offshore waters tonight and early Friday will push an
occluded front onshore during the day on Friday with another
shot of rain and breezy to windy conditions...especially coast
and near east/west gaps in terrain. High tides and lower
pressure may lead to minor coastal flooding Friday morning. The
main area is the shoreline and beaches around the Salish Sea
during the time of high tide. While precip with this system
doesn`t look particularly heavy, it should be sufficient to push
the Skokomish River back above flood stage.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...A stronger
system remains on track to arrive later Saturday into Saturday
night. More widespread windy conditions are expected with this
system...strongest along the coast where NBM probabilities of 50
mph gusts are 50-70 percent. QPF is also heavier with storm
total rainfall estimates between between Saturday midday and
Sunday afternoon of 1.5 to 2 inches along the coast and upwards
of 3 to 4 inches in the Olympics.
Showery conditions continue Sunday night into Monday before
tapering off. Forecast confidence begins to decrease Tuesday and
beyond as both deterministic and ensembles start to diverge
with some solutions now suggesting that a system around the
middle of next week will cut off and head south of the area.
One portion of the forecast that retains at least some
confidence is a downward trend in temperatures to nearer
seasonal norms next week.
27
&&
.AVIATION...A stalled frontal boundary will remain offshore
today as showers continue west of the Olympics for terminals
such as KHQM and KUIL. As a result, IFR conditions will be met
along the coast throughout the remainder of the morning with
MVFR cigs possible for KCLM as well. Mid-high level cloud
coverage will keep mostly VFR in place for inland terminals with
patchy fog and low clouds holding on for fog-prone terminals
(KOLM, KPWT) throughout the remainder of the morning until
conditions improve around 18-20z. VFR area wide including the
coastal areas towards the afternoon but steadier widespread rain
will return late overnight into Friday morning with a return of
low ceilings.
KSEA...VFR likely to persist through the upcoming TAF period as high
clouds stream overhead. Winds mainly out of the SE 5 kt or less.
41/15
&&
.MARINE...A frontal boundary remains stalled offshore today as
winds begin to pick up this afternoon across marine waters. A
pair of strong low pressure systems will later move across the
coastal waters later tonight into Friday, with the second moving
through Saturday night into Sunday. As a result, the inherited
Gale Watch across the coastal waters have been upgraded to a
warning and a new SCA has been issued for the East Strait,
starting later this morning and lasting into early Friday
morning. Additional SCAs may be needed elsewhere. Seas will
remain around 12 to 15 ft today before increasing above 20 ft
Friday night with a 25-35% chance of seas above 25 ft through
Saturday morning. An active pattern may remain into early next
week as the parade of storms continue.
41
&&
.HYDROLOGY...The Skokomish River will remain elevated into
Friday then rise back above flood stage later Friday into the
weekend with another round of heavy rain over the Olympics.
River flooding is not expected on the other rivers in the area
in the next 7 days at this time.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Coastal Flood Advisory until 11 AM PST this morning for San
Juan County.
Flood Watch from late tonight through late Saturday night for
Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Southern Hood
Canal.
High Surf Advisory from noon Friday to 7 AM PST Saturday for
Grays Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Friday for Grays Harbor
Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM PST Friday for East Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Friday for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion