Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
226
FXUS66 KSEW 121033
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
233 AM PST Thu Nov 12 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front remains stalled offshore today with mainly dry
conditions for interior areas and light rain at times near the
coast. A series of frontal systems will bring a return of
widespread rain and occasionally windy conditions Friday into
early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Much like yesterday, a front remains stalled offshore with a
very mild air mass in place across the region. Clouds will
stream across the area throughout the day ahead with periods of
light rainfall skirting the coast and Olympic Peninsula as the
interior remains mostly dry. Models remain largely unchanged
with the overall pattern heading into the conclusion of the
week. A vertically stacked system moving into the offshore
waters tonight and early Friday will push an occluded front
onshore during the day on Friday with another shot of rain and
breezy to windy conditions...especially coast and near east/west
gaps in terrain. High tides and lower pressure may lead to minor
coastal flooding Friday morning. The main area is the shoreline
and beaches around the Salish Sea during the time of high tide.
While precip with this system doesn`t look particularly heavy,
it should be sufficient to push the Skokomish River back above
flood stage.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A stronger system remains on track to arrive later Saturday
into Saturday night. More widespread windy conditions are
expected with this system...strongest along the coast where NBM
probabilities of 50 mph gusts are 50-70 percent. QPF is also
heavier with storm total rainfall estimates between between
Saturday midday and Sunday afternoon of 1.5 to 2 inches along
the coast and upwards of 3 to 4 inches in the Olympics.
Showery conditions continue Sunday night into Monday before
tapering off. Forecast confidence begins to decrease Tuesday and
beyond as both deterministic and ensembles start to diverge
with some solutions now suggesting that a system around the
middle of next week will cut off and head south of the area.
One portion of the forecast that retains at least some
confidence is a downward trend in temperatures to nearer
seasonal norms next week.
27
&&
.AVIATION...
A stalled frontal boundary will remain offshore today as showers
continue west of the Olympics for terminals such as KHQM and KUIL.
As a result, IFR conditions will be met throughout the remainder of
the morning with MVFR cigs possible for KCLM as well. Mid-high level
cloud coverage will keep mostly VFR in place for inland terminals
but KOLM and KPWT may have to contend with fog and low clouds
throughout the remainder of the morning until conditions improve
around 18-20z. VFR area wide including the coastal areas towards the
afternoon but steadier widespread rain will return late overnight
into Friday morning with a return of low ceilings.
KSEA...VFR likely to persist through the upcoming TAF period as high
clouds stream overhead. Low chance (5%) of vicinity fog in the
morning near the Duwamish River/east of the terminal this morning.
Winds mainly out of the SE 5 kt or less.
41
&&
.MARINE...
A frontal boundary remains stalled offshore today as winds begin to
pick up this afternoon across marine waters. A pair of strong low
pressure systems will later move across the coastal waters later
tonight into Friday, with the second moving through Saturday night
into Sunday. As a result, the inherited Gale Watch across the
coastal waters have been upgraded to a warning and a new SCA has
been issued for the East Strait, starting later this morning and
lasting into early Friday morning. Additional SCAs may be needed
elsewhere. Seas will remain around 12 to 15 ft today before
increasing above 20 ft Friday night with a 25-35% chance of seas
above 25 ft through Saturday morning. An active pattern may remain
into early next week as the parade of storms continue.
41
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
The Skokomish River fell below flood stage overnight. The river
will remain elevated into Friday then rise back above flood
stage later Friday into the weekend with another round of heavy
rain over the Olympics.
River flooding is not expected on the other rivers in the area
in the next 7 days at this time. Felton/27
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Friday for Grays Harbor
Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM PST
Friday for East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De
Fuca.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST Friday for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion