Brier Weather Station

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 Latitude N 47° 46' 49"    Longitude W 122° 16' 48"    Elevation 341 ft

FXUS66 KSEW 212216

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
316 PM PDT Tue Sep 21 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions expected through the remainder of
today, before a weak system moves into western WA on Wednesday,
bringing with it some chances for showers and cooler, cloudier
conditions. A return to drier conditions is expected Thursday and
Friday, before another weak system traverses the region over the
weekend. Additional systems may move into the area early next


.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...Latest satellite imagery
this afternoon shows mostly clear skies across western WA, with a
few high clouds passing overhead the northern interior due to a
frontal system just offshore British Columbia. Overall, expect a
dry afternoon and evening across the region as a weak upper level
ridge traverses further eastward across eastern WA and into
Idaho and Montana. Afternoon highs will be in the 70s for the
majority of the lowlands.

Rain chances increase slightly overnight and into Wednesday as
the weak frontal system moves into the region and then falls
apart across W WA. A good portion of the region should remain
fairly dry. However, areas that are more likely to see some rain
include those along the northwestern tier of the Olympic
Peninsula, the mountains, and locations across the northern
interior (i.e. areas from Everett northward). Rainfall amounts
look to remain rather light, with areas that do see precipitation
likely only receiving a couple hundredths of an inch at best.
Otherwise, the frontal system will act to bring slightly cooler
and cloudier conditions to the region for the start of fall.
Afternoon highs are expected to cool a few degrees and only make
it into the 60s across the lowlands.

Conditions will dry out again on Thursday as an upper level high
offshore the California coast strengthens and builds into the
Pacific Northwest, causing the flow aloft to become northwesterly.
Morning clouds will scatter for afternoon sun and temperatures
will be in the upper 60s to low 70s for the interior lowlands.
Areas along the coast will remain slightly cooler-with high
temperatures only making it into the low 60s. 14

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...Upper level ridging across
the Pacific Northwest will keep conditions across W WA dry for the
start of the long term. A weak front then looks to approach the
W WA again over the weekend-and looks to fall apart over the
region for some light precipitation chances Saturday and Sunday.
Latest ensemble guidance and cluster analysis then hint at a
stronger system approaching W WA early next week, for the
potential return of some more substantial rainfall. With plenty
of discrepancies still existing among guidance, will need to
monitor how guidance trends with this system over the next several
days. 14


.AVIATION...Southwest flow aloft tonight as an upper ridge shifts
inland. A weak upper trough will move over the area on Wednesday
with west to northwest flow aloft. An offshore surface ridge will
move to the coast tonight then a weak front will fall apart over
the area on Wednesday. The air mass will be stable. High clouds
will increase tonight then mid clouds will move into the area on
Wednesday with the weak front. Low clouds will develop at the
coast by late Wednesday morning with area of low clouds over the
north interior in the afternoon.

KSEA...Clear skies this evening. High clouds increasing after
midnight then mid clouds developing late Wednesday morning.
Northwest wind 5-9 knots will ease and turn more northerly this
evening then become southwest 4-8 knots Wednesday morning. Schneider


.MARINE...An approaching weak front will push a surface ridge to
the coast tonight with a resulting brief uptick in westerly
onshore flow. As a result, a few hours of marginal small craft
advisory strength west winds are expected in the Central Strait
and East Entrance late tonight and Wednesday morning.

The aforementioned weak front will move into the Coastal Waters
Wednesday morning then fall apart as it moves inland Wednesday
afternoon. High pressure will be offshore with lower pressure
inland Thursday through Saturday. A thermal trough along the coast
to the south will cause an uptick in northerly winds Thursday and
Friday, especially afternoon and evening hours for the Coastal

Onshore flow will increase Friday night and Saturday with a
westerly push likely down the Strait of Juan de Fuca. A second
weak front will reach the area Saturday night or Sunday.


PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM PDT
     Wednesday for Central U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-
     East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.



NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion

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