123
FXUS66 KSEW 022300
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
300 PM PST Mon Nov 2 2026
.SYNOPSIS...
Dry conditions will continue the remainder of the evening. A
weak system will brush the region tonight, bringing chances of
light rain to the area early Tuesday. The pattern introduces
more active weather mid to late week as a series of systems
brings lowland rain, mountain snow, gusty winds, and the
potential for high surf to western Washington. A brief break in
the unsettled weather is possible Friday night into Saturday,
before the next round of active weather moves in late in the
weekend into the first half of next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...An upper level
ridge will continue to push inland western Washington this
afternoon with dry conditions expected the remainder of the day.
A cloudy day with high temperatures in the low to mid 50s across
much of the area. A weak system will brush over the region
tonight into Tuesday, bringing a small chance of showers. The
areas that may receive showers would be locations along the
coast, the Olympics, and perhaps the Northwest Interior.
Elsewhere, conditions should remain dry throughout the day on
Tuesday. High temperatures will be a touch warmer in the upper
50s, maybe low 60s for areas in the Southwest Interior.
The weather pattern will shift to more active, with a series of
weather systems starting to approach the area starting on
Wednesday. A frontal system looks to move over the area
Wednesday afternoon, bringing widespread rain and high elevation
snow. Most of the rain activity will be focused in along the
coast, Olympics, and the North Cascades with these areas seeing
perhaps a half of inch of rain. Locations in the interior will
likely get rain shadowed and may see a shower or two,
especially areas like the Puget Sound. Snow levels will be
generally around 5000 to 5500, with moisture bringing a few
inches of snow in the higher peaks of the Olympics and Cascades.
Heading into Wednesday evening, we will also see an uptick in
southerly winds, primarily along the Pacific coast, with
gusts around 25 to 35 mph. Locations in the interior could see
gust up to 25 mph at times through the evening. Wind and
precipitation will begin to slowly decrease heading into
Thursday morning. Temps on Wednesday staying in the mid to upper
50s.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Ensemble guidance continues to favor a brief lull on Thursday before
the more active pattern takes hold over the region late Thursday
into Friday. This is shaping up to potentially bring a strong
frontal system with multiple hazards including gusty winds, lowland
rain, and high elevation snow, as well as high surf for the Pacific
coastline. Snow levels around 5000 ft will support heavy snow across
the higher mountain elevations, with 1-2 inches of rain in the lower
mountain elevations. In addition, probabilistic guidance continues
to indicate around a 50% chance of 40 mph or stronger wind gusts
along the coast and areas from Whidbey Island northward. High surf
potential also increases as a large, long period swell moves through
the waters to the coastline, bringing risks for beach erosion and
hazardous conditions along beaches and jetties.
Guidance begins to depict a wider range of potential outcomes toward
the weekend, but these are largely centered around differences in
timing of subsequent systems. If the upper ridge builds a bit more,
this would direct more of the moisture into the B.C. coast. However,
any ridge looks to be rather transient, allowing the next surge of
moisture to return to the region by the end of the weekend. In any
event, it`s clear that we`re entering into a more active period of
weather late this week through the start of next week. Cullen
&&
.AVIATION...
VFR conditions at all terminals this afternoon as a weak front
spreads high clouds across most of the region. As high clouds
continue to filter in, this will help limit any fog development
tonight into Tuesday morning, with most area terminals remaining
VFR throughout the period. The only exception being KOLM, KPWT,
and KBLI where localized MVFR low clouds/fog could form at the
lower prone terminal. Light winds this afternoon with some areas
seeing a N/NE direction. Winds will tilt more NE overnight with
speeds around 3 to 6 knots.
KSEA...VFR conditions this afternoon with high OVC clouds over
the terminal. Expect this trend to continue overnight, with
cloud cover limiting any fog development. VFR will continue
through Tuesday morning. Variable winds turning more NE
overnight, with speeds remaining light.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.MARINE...
The primary marine issue remains the larger seas associated with the
long period swell working through the coastal waters. Seas will
remain around 10 feet, largest over the outer zones through tonight.
Otherwise, attention turns to a shift to a much more active pattern
around midweek and especially into the late portions of the week.
Expect widespread advisory winds across the coastal waters with
probabilities greater than 75% at this point. Seas will also build
late Wednesday into Thursday over the coastal waters, reaching
around 12 to 14 ft. A stronger frontal system Friday will bring
widespread advisory winds and around a 35% chance of gales to the
coastal waters and the eastern Strait of Juan de Fuca. Expect seas
to build more significantly with this system, bringing around a 20-
30% chance of 20 ft seas over the coastal waters. Additional frontal
systems may follow this weekend, maintaining an active pattern into
the start of next week. Cullen
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
River flooding is not expected through the next seven days. However,
a series of increasingly moist weather systems will begin to bring
rain (and high mountain snow) to the region this week, especially
Friday onward. While current forecasts are not expected to cause
flooding, this will begin to saturate soils and raise base flows
that could bring a concern with subsequent storms systems.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Tuesday for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-West Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion