Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
601
FXUS66 KSEW 080553
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
953 PM PST Sat Nov 7 2026
.UPDATE...
A stormy night has been felt across portions of western WA so
far. A cold front associated with a deep sub 970 mb low well
offshore is currently pushing across the area with widespread
rainfall and gusty winds. So far, the strongest winds have been
at Hoquiam Bowerman where gusts upwards of 69 MPH was observed
just before 7:00 PM local time. Gusty winds will continue to
spread inland as Wind Advisories remain posted throughout much
of the interior lowlands through late tonight.
Post-frontal - a cold airmass aloft is leading to steep low-
level lapse rates (> 7 C/km along the coast and open waters) and
convection as lightning has been analyzed over the offshore
waters. Hi-res model guidance has this activity tracking inland
as steadier rainfall transitions to showers and the potential
for thunderstorms throughout the overnight hours. The SPC has W
WA highlighted under a general to marginal risk of severe
weather. Big waves will also continue build in the wake of the
aforementioned front as a High Surf Warning remains in place for
the coast. The previous discussion remains below along with an
updated aviation section.
&&
.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system will cross over the area this evening into
Sunday morning, bringing widespread lowland rain, gusty winds,
high elevation mountain snow, and high surf conditions. A brief
break late Sunday before another wet and windy system moves into
the area late Monday into Tuesday. Active weather continues
through the end of the week with multiple systems passing into
the area.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Brief dry conditions this afternoon across much of the area will
be short lived, as a potent cold front crosses over western
Washington this evening through Sunday morning.
We`ll start to see an increase in lowland rain spreading along
the coast this evening with widespread rainfall through in the
interior tonight. Additionally, there is some instability with
the aforementioned front, with a 20-30% chance of isolated
thunderstorms, primarily along the coast. Could see a lightning
strike or two in the interior, but less of chance of
thunderstorms (10-20%). As rain spreads throughout the region
southerly winds will increase over much of the area. Latest REFS
guidance shows a 50-70% chance of wind gusts over 55 mph along
for areas along the coast. Therefore, a High Wind Warning
continues to remain in effect for areas along the coast.
Elsewhere, A Wind Advisory is out for interior areas, seeing
gusts anywhere from 45 to 50 mph at times. Due to continued
foliage on the trees for many locations, localized power outages
can be possible. Furthermore, clogged storm drains may occur
when the period of gusty winds overlaps with steadier rain this
evening. Give yourself extra time if traveling this evening. The
wind will peak during the overnight hours into early Sunday
morning, before steadily decreasing late Sunday afternoon.
Seas will rise rapidly tonight into Sunday, building to 22 to 28
feet along the beaches tonight. A High Surf Warning remains in
effect tonight for these areas. Those participating in razor
clam digs should exercise caution, as large waves and strong
winds will make for dangerous conditions for the clam dig.
Widespread steadier rain will transition into a more post-
frontal shower environment through Sunday afternoon, with most
of the shower activity focused on the North Cascades and
Olympics. The primary concern shifts to high surf conditions
along the coast on Sunday. Snow levels generally around 7000 to
7500 feet will fall to 4500 feet, for some accumulations in the
higher terrain of the mountains. Shower activity will decrease
over the interior throughout the day. High temps in the mid 50s.
A break in the weather Sunday evening before another system
rolls right on in on Monday for another round of widespread rain
and locally breezy conditions. Most of the QPF, once again is
focused on the Olympics.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Latest ensemble guidance a bit shaky on timings and strength of
upcoming systems. A steady plume of moisture looks to become
more focused along Vancouver Island and parts of western
Washington on Tuesday into Wednesday for more widespread
rainfall, warmer temps, and breezy conditions. Most of the
precip is aimed along the Olympics and North Cascades, with most
of the interior seeing showers at times. Active weather
continues with additional systems at the end of the week for
more rainfall and breezy conditions. It seems like we have
entered the active weather season this November!
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.AVIATION...
The narrow cold frontal rain band passing brought heavy rain and
low visibility to the Puget Sound terminal. Strong southerly
surface winds with gusts 35 to 45 knots are peaking in the
interior at this hour. Winds will peak during the overnight
period and gradually ease through Sunday morning. Showers will
persist through Sunday morning, tapering later in the day. A few
isolated thunderstorms will be possible in any heavier bands of
showers, but confidence in occurrence remains too low for
inclusion in any TAF at this time.
KSEA...Wind gusts to 30 to 35 kt will linger tonight before
easing early Sunday morning. Otherwise, expect mostly VFR
ceilings with lingering showers through the overnight period now
that the main rain band is through. A low (10%) chance of a
thunderstorm overnight, but likelihood is too low for TAF
inclusion.
&&
.MARINE...
An active weather pattern will continue over the next several
days as a series of frontal systems move across the area waters.
A vigorous frontal system associated with a deepening surface
low offshore British Columbia will swing across the waters
tonight into early Sunday. This system will produce a period of
storm force wind gusts over the coastal waters and gales across
the interior waters tonight into early Sunday. Seas will build
to 22 to 28 feet late tonight into Sunday before gradually
subsiding again Sunday night into Monday. Isolated thunderstorms
will be possible in the wake of the system tonight into Sunday
morning and may bring brief heavy downpours, lightning, gusty
winds, and reduced visibilities to the area waters.
Weak high pressure will briefly build over the waters on Monday
before another deepening surface low moving northward into the
Gulf of Alaska pushes another front across the area waters
Monday night into Tuesday. Seas will build back towards 16-18 ft
on Tuesday and persist in this range into Wednesday.
Additional frontal systems will move through the waters mid to
late week, likely bringing more rounds of widespread headlines
to the area waters.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
River flooding is not expected through the next seven days.
Multiple weather systems moving through the area in the next
week. While current precipitation forecasts are not expected to
cause flooding, this will saturate soils and raise base flows
that could bring a concern with storm systems by late next
week.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory until 4 AM PST Sunday for City of Seattle-
Downtown Everett / Marysville Area-Eastern Kitsap County-
Eastside-Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic
Peninsula-Island County-Lake Crescent Area Including US
101-Lower Chehalis River Valley-Lowlands of Pierce and
Southern King Counties-Lowlands of Western Skagit and
Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western
Whatcom County-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Northern Hood
Canal-Olympia and Southern Puget Sound-Port Townsend Area-
San Juan County-Shoreline / Lynnwood / South Everett Area-
Southern Hood Canal-Western Strait of Juan de Fuca-
Willapa and Black Hills.
High Wind Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor
County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
High Surf Warning until 10 PM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor
County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST Sunday for Grays Harbor
Bar.
Gale Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for Central U.S. Waters
Strait Of Juan De Fuca-East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait
Of Juan De Fuca-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan
De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 4 AM PST Sunday for Admiralty Inlet-
Northern Inland Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Gale Warning until 7 AM PST Sunday for Puget Sound and Hood
Canal.
Storm Warning until 10 AM PST Sunday for Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out
10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion