Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
279
FXUS66 KSEW 102247
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
247 PM PST Tue Nov 10 2026
.SYNOPSIS...A warm front will lift north into British Columbia
tonight, while a cold front stalls offshore Wednesday and into
Thursday. Additional weather systems will move through Friday
through Sunday for more lowland rain and gusty winds. After a
brief break Monday, another front will arrive on Tuesday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...Western WA
remains under strong and moist SW flow with rain and high
elevation snow across the region. The warm front will lift north
into B.C tonight and the interior will see a break in the
precipitation. Wetter conditions will remain along the coast and
Olympics through Wednesday as the cold front stalls offshore.
Wednesday will be mild in the warm sector with temperatures in
the 60s.
Several weather headlines are in place with the main impact
being strong winds along the coast and North Interior. Expect
south winds of 20 to 30 MPH with gusts to 50 MPH. Winds will
ease Wednesday afternoon. In addition, there`s potential for
large waves crashing along the coast leading to a High Surf
Advisory. Minor coastal flooding is also possible near Wednesday
morning`s high tide in the San Juans and western Whatcom County.
Lastly, due to heavy precipitation, the Skokomish River in Mason
County is seeing sharp rises with Minor flooding possible.
The cold front will continue to stall and weaken offshore moving
into Thursday. The coast and Olympics may see periods of light
rain but the interior and Cascades will see a brief break.
There`s more active weather starting Thursday night. 33
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...From Thursday night into
Friday, there`s another strong Pacific storm system moving in
for more lowland rain, high elevation mountain snow, and gusty
winds. Winds will be the strongest along the coast where the
probability of seeing gusts of 50 MPH is 70-80 percent. It will
be windy in the interior as well with gusts to 30-40 MPH. This
system will weaken as it moves inland on Saturday. We will then
see a second system track through on Sunday for more wind and
rain. Additional rainfall will keep the Skokomish River running
high with the possibility of river flooding. These systems will
generate large waves with the potential for High Surf and beach
erosion along the Pacific coast. Minor coastal flooding will
also need to monitored around the time of high tides across the
Salish Sea.
Moving forward, there appears to be a brief break in the
pattern on Monday. By Tuesday we see more breezy winds and rain
as the next front moves in. 33
&&
.AVIATION...A mixed bag of ceilings this afternoon as ongoing
showers are keeping conditions messy through the interior. Most
areas are seeing MVFR/IFR in showers along with low ceilings and
low visibilities (3-6SM). Ceilings should slowly, and gradually
improve towards low-end VFR late this evening as rain begins to
dissipate. S/SE winds will remain breezy this afternoon, with
gusts up to 20 to 25 kts possible. Areas along the coast and
especially terminals in the north interior (KBLI) could see
gusts up to 30 kts tonight. Winds will remain elevated Wednesday
morning, easing by the afternoon. Ceilings should remain VFR on
Wednesday morning.
KSEA...MVFR/IFR conditions this afternoon in showers. Low
visibilities (2-4SM) will likely continue in showers through
the early evening hours, before conditions start to ease up into
VFR. S/E winds 8 to 12 knots this afternoon, moving towards
more of a 5 to 10 knots later this evening and into the
overnight hours. VFR conditions Wednesday morning.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.MARINE...Winds will continue to increase over the area waters
this afternoon, peaking this evening and remaining elevated
throughout the overnight hours. A Gale Warning remains in effect
for the coastal waters until Wednesday evening as these wind
speeds persist. A Gale Warning is also in effect for the East
Strait of Juan De Fuca, along with the Northern Inland Waters.
Elsewhere, A Small Craft Advisory will continue for Admiralty
Inlet and the West Entrance of the Strait until Wednesday
evening when winds will start to ease across the whole region.
Seas this afternoon generally around 16 to 18 feet this
afternoon, remaining high through Wednesday morning. Seas will
ease towards more of a 12 to 14 feet on Thursday.
Another strong low pressure system will start to move towards
the coastal waters late Thursday night into Friday, bringing
stronger winds and higher waves. Latest guidance still suggests
a 60-70% chance of storm force wind gusts over the coastal
waters. Winds may ease slightly Friday night before another
round of strong winds arrives on the coastal waters, with a
30-40% chance of storm force gusts over the waters. Winds will
slowly ease late night Sunday as these systems move away from
the area.
Additionally, guidance suggests building large waves over the
coast, generally above 20 feet starting on Friday afternoon.
GEFS and ECMWF probabilities continuously has shown a 20-30%
chance of seas above 25 feet heading into late Friday into early
Saturday morning. Subtle shifts in the low pressure may change
waves and where the largest waves generate, with seas nearing 30
ft not out of the equation, especially near the southern
portions of the waters.
Mazurkiewicz
&&
.HYDROLOGY...A flood watch has been issued for Mason county for
the possibility of the Skokomish River flooding with this
round of rain. Another round of rainfall with the system Friday
could also push the Skokomish back above flood stage.
River flooding not expected on the other rivers in the area in
the next 7 days. 33
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory until 7 PM PST Wednesday for Grays Harbor County
Coast-Island County-Lowlands of Western Skagit and
Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western
Whatcom County-Northern Washington Coast-San Juan County.
Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 11 AM PST Wednesday for
Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-San Juan County.
Flood Watch from 7 PM PST this evening through Wednesday
evening for Foothills of the Western and Southern Olympic
Peninsula-Middle Chehalis River Valley-Olympia and
Southern Puget Sound-Olympics-Southern Hood Canal-Willapa
and Black Hills.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 3 PM PST this afternoon for Grays
Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
High Surf Advisory until 10 AM PST Wednesday for Grays Harbor
County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM PST Wednesday for Admiralty
Inlet-Grays Harbor Bar-West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait
Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 7 PM PST Wednesday for Coastal Waters From
Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal
Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville Out
10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm-East Entrance U.S.
Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters
Including The San Juan Islands.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion