Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
168
FXUS66 KSEW 112245
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
245 PM PST Wed Nov 11 2026
.SYNOPSIS...A warm front has introduced a very mild air mass to
Western Washington with near record high temperatures expected
today. A cold front will stall offshore into Thursday with
mainly dry conditions for interior areas and light rain at times
near the coast. A series of frontal systems will bring a return
of widespread rain and occasionally windy conditions Friday
into early next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...Western Washington
sits in the warm sector today with a warm front north into B.C.
and a cold front stalled offshore. We are seeing very mild
conditions with temperatures in the 60s and a few spots
breaking daily highs by a degree or two. Meanwhile, it`s still
windy along the north coast and north interior but winds will be
easing this afternoon - the Wind Advisory will expire at 4 PM
today as planned.
The cold front remains stalled offshore on Thursday with another
mild day planned for western WA. Forecast highs are in the lower
60s or around 5-10 degrees warmer than average. A few light
showers may clip the coast, otherwise it`ll be dry in the
interior.
A deep, stacked, low pressure center will shift E/SE toward WA
on Friday, slowly pushing a front inland. While most of the rain
will be along the coast, the interior will also see light
accumulations. A tight pressure gradient will lead to gusty
winds along the coast with gusts to 35-45 MPH. It`ll be gusty
too across the Cascades, gaps, and foothills with east winds to
20-30 MPH. In addition, high tides and lower pressure may lead
to minor coastal flooding Friday morning. The main area is the
shoreline and beaches around the Salish Sea during the time of
high tide. 33
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Low pressure (from
Friday) will shift inland Friday night into Saturday, with
another strong Pacific frontal system right at its heels.
Coastal flooding remains a concern on Saturday morning too. This
second system will bring more lowland rain and gusty winds to
the area Saturday/Saturday night. Highest winds will be along
the coast with S/SE gusts to 40-50 MPH. It will be windy in the
interior as well with winds 20-40 MPH. Troughing keeps the area
wet through Sunday. Rain-wise, we`re looking at another 1-2"
along the coast this weekend with 0.50-1.00" in the interior.
Additional rainfall in the Olympics will keep the Skokomish
River running high with flooding possible. Moving forward,
showers continue into Monday with weaker troughing overhead. A
weak front heads to our south by midweek. 33
&&
.AVIATION...Generally VFR this afternoon with MVFR along the
Pacific Coast as a stalled frontal system continues to spread
rain showers over the western Olympic Peninsula. Gusty southerly
winds will gradually ease throughout the afternoon and become
fairly light across the interior overnight. This will likely
generate areas of IFR fog and low clouds west and south of the
Puget Sound early Thursday morning, staying west of KSEA/KBFI.
Showers will continue off and on along the coast through
Thursday afternoon ahead of a stronger frontal system moving
inland late Thursday.
KSEA...VFR with varying amounts of high and mid level clouds today.
Surface winds south to southeasterly 7 to 10 knots with occasional
gusts to 20 kt this afternoon easing to 6 knots or less tonight. Fog
is not expected to impact the terminal overnight, though patchy fog
may form near the vicinity.
27/15
&&
.MARINE...Strong winds will continue to persist across the
coastal waters and northern inland waters today as a cold front
remains stalled offshore. This front will weaken as it slowly
drifts onshore this evening, allowing winds to slowly ease this
evening into early Thursday morning. As a result, Gale Warnings
for the coastal waters and East Strait of Juan de Fuca, and
Northern Inland Waters, and Small Craft Advisories for Admiralty
Inlet will continue through this evening. Seas generally around
15 to 18 feet this afternoon will gradually ease to around 12
to 15 feet on Thursday, with severe bar conditions easing to
rough into Thursday at Grays Harbor.
A pair of strong low pressure systems will move across the coastal
waters late Thursday night into Friday, with the second moving
through Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will begin to increase
across the area waters by the afternoon Thursday. Gales will begin
as early as Thursday afternoon, peaking overnight into early Friday
morning. Guidance continues to indicate 50-70% chances for storm
force gusts over the outer coastal waters, though higher end gale
force winds continue to be more likely along the inner coastal
waters. A Gale Watch remains in effect, likely to be upgraded with
additional Small Craft Advisories elsewhere.
Seas once again will build over the coastal waters on Friday. With
the low center tracking closer towards our area, that will send the
largest waves farther south towards Oregon. That being said, very
large seas are expected, with ensemble guidance continuing to show
very high confidence in seas above 20 ft by Friday evening, with a
25-35% chance of seas above 25 ft through Saturday morning. Dominant
periods will be long but have come down slightly, in the 14-16
second range. Seas look to briefly ease Saturday morning below 20 ft
before another system will send another round of large, long period
waves on Sunday with high confidence in seas above 20 ft with
chances of seas exceeding 25 ft through early Monday.
With these systems, slight shifts in the low tracks will determine
where the strongest wave generation/dynamic fetch regions will be.
While it is looking more likely that the largest waves will be aimed
towards Oregon and California from the Friday/Saturday system, the
Sunday/Monday system favors a more northward track with the largest
waves aimed towards the Washington coast. There is a 5-10% chance of
waves exceeding 30 ft at the peak wave height Sunday night.
62/15
&&
.HYDROLOGY...The Skokomish River is receding and will fall below
flood stage tonight. Heavy rainfall this weekend will bring renewed
potential for flooding.
River flooding is not expected on the other rivers in the area
in the next 7 days at this time.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Grays Harbor
County Coast-Island County-Lowlands of Western Skagit and
Northwestern Snohomish Counties-Lowlands of Western
Whatcom County-Northern Washington Coast-San Juan County.
High Surf Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Grays
Harbor County Coast-Northern Washington Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM PST Friday for Grays Harbor
Bar.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Thursday for West Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning until 10 PM PST this evening for East Entrance
U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca-Northern Inland Waters
Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for
Admiralty Inlet.
Gale Warning until 7 PM PST this evening for Coastal Waters
From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 PM PST
Thursday for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
Island 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To
James Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island
To Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James
Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Gale Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday night
for Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James
Island Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James
Island To Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From
Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal
Waters From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion