Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
645
FXUS66 KSEW 032228
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
228 PM PST Tue Nov 3 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions continue into Wednesday. A frontal
system will bring a brief period of lowland rain late Wednesday
into Thursday. A stronger front on Friday brings gusty winds and
additional precipitation. A cold front moves through over the
weekend, with additional systems next week for a continued
active pattern.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...Dry conditions for
most areas this afternoon with a mix of clouds and sunshine. A
few showers are moving northwards towards Mount Rainier this
afternoon with an upper low well south of the area in
California. These showers will dissipate into this evening, with
dry conditions into Wednesday AM. A weak frontal system moves
across the region Wednesday evening into Thursday bringing
lowland rain, and locally breezy winds around Whidbey Island
northwards. Mainly dry conditions returns for lowland areas for
Thursday afternoon with lingering rain or drizzle in the
mountains. Highs in the mid to upper 50s through Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...A more active weather
pattern begins Friday and continues into next week as multiple
frontal systems move across Western Washington. The first front
arrives Friday bringing lowland rain and gusty winds. South
winds will be strongest along the immediate coast and from
Admiralty Inlet northwards. NBM probabilities of gusts
exceeding 40 MPH on Friday range 40 to 80% in these areas, and
will need to monitor the potential for any wind headlines on
Friday. A warm front then lifts northwards on Saturday,
resulting in continued rain at times for the Olympic Peninsula
and near BC, with a brief period of drier weather for some of
Puget Sound. The associated cold front then slides across the
region Saturday night into Sunday for the return of additional
rain and breezy winds. Due to continued foliage on the trees,
localized power outages may be possible during this period. Snow
levels remain higher Friday into Sunday, mainly 5000 to 8000
feet, for high elevation mountain snowfall. Furthermore, seas
rise towards 15 to 20 feet Friday, and will need to monitor high
surf concerns along the coast.
Ensembles suggest there may be a brief break in the heavier
precipitation Sunday night into Monday, before another front
moves into the Pacific Northwest late Monday. The active pattern
then continues next week resulting in further lowland rain,
mountain snow, gusty winds, and increased waves. Continue to
monitor the forecast for additional updates. JD
&&
.AVIATION...VFR conditions persist across western Washington
this evening as broken mid to high level clouds continue to move
across the area. Cloud cover should continue to decrease in
coverage this evening and overnight, which will open up the door
for areas of low stratus and fog to develop overnight as winds
remain light. Confidence is highest in southwest Washington
(OLM, PWT) but other sheltered terminals (PAE, BLI) could also
see some periods of fog. The biggest uncertainty will be SEA and
the metro area terminals, with a 25-30% chc of seeing LIFR
conditions. Fog should clear out succinctly around 18Z as
southerly winds begin to increase due to an approaching frontal
system. MVFR to IFR cigs as well as rain begin to move onshore
along the coast by 00Z Thur.
KSEA...VFR conditions through most of the TAF period. High cloud
coverage will decrease this evening, opening the door up to a brief
period of low stratus/fog development. Chances are highest (25-30%
chc) between 13-18Z Thur for a brief period of IFR to LIFR
conditions. N/NW winds 5-7 kt decrease to 5 kt or less overnight.
Winds switch to S overnight, between 06-12Z Thur, increasing back to
5-7 kt during the day Thursday.
62
&&
.MARINE...Conditions remain relatively benign today as the area
remains under relatively higher pressure with a front
approaching from well offshore. Seas in the outermost waters may
still be hovering near 10 ft but are slowly easing and should
remain around 6-8 ft through tonight. A Small Craft Advisory
remains in effect through 4 PM.
South/southwesterly winds will start to increase over the coastal
waters early Wednesday morning as the front approaches the area.
Small Craft Advisories begin across outer coastal waters first, then
including the inner coastal waters by Wednesday afternoon as winds
increase. Southerly winds will also increase Wednesday afternoon
through the interior Salish Sea from the central Puget Sound up
through the southern Strait of Georgia, but confidence is high in
winds remaining below advisory thresholds. The front moves through
Wednesday evening and winds slowly ease into early Thursday. In
addition to winds, seas build back to 10-12 ft late Wednesday and
continue into Thursday.
Conditions become more active Thursday night into Friday as another
stronger frontal system traverses the area waters. Winds increase
area-wide overnight, with 60-80% chances for gale force wind gusts
across portions of the coastal waters and the East Strait of Juan de
Fuca through Friday morning. Winds look to slowly weaken during the
day Friday. Seas will also begin to increase Thursday night, in
conjunction with the winds but also as a large, long-period swell
group arrives to the coastal waters. Seas will most likely rise to
around 15-18 ft, through ensemble guidance shows a 25-40% chance of
seas exceeding 20 ft. Seas look to maximize by mid-day Friday before
easing Friday night.
The next frontal system, however, will be on its heels with winds
increasing once again on Saturday, with higher (50-70%) chances for
gale force winds across the coastal waters through early Sunday
morning. Winds remain elevated overnight before easing on Sunday.
Seas rise once again late Saturday up to 16-20 ft during the day
Sunday. Seas ease slightly Sunday night.
Conditions look to remain hazardous going into next week.
Additional frontal systems move near or through the area waters
almost every day, bringing additional periods of strong to gale-
force winds. Deep low centers over the Gulf of Alaska will continue
to generate and send several series of large, longer- period waves
to the coast, keeping seas at least above 12 ft.
62
&&
.HYDROLOGY...River flooding is not expected through the next
seven days. However, a series of increasingly wet weather
systems will bring rain (and high mountain snow) to the region,
especially from Friday onward. While current forecasts are not
expected to cause flooding, this will begin to saturate soils
and raise base flows that could bring a concern with subsequent
storms systems.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...None.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM to 10 PM PST Wednesday for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST this afternoon for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.
Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM to 10 PM PST Wednesday for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville
10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville To Cape
Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion