Brier Weather Station
Latitude N 47° 46' 49" Longitude W 122° 16' 48" Elevation 341 ft
213
FXUS66 KSEW 051020
AFDSEW
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Seattle WA
220 AM PST Thu Nov 5 2026
.SYNOPSIS...A stronger frontal system will bring gusty winds
tonight and Friday. A warm front moves northwards on Saturday
for warmer weather. A cold front will bring another round of
rain and gusty winds late Saturday into Sunday. The weather
pattern remains active moving through next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...An upper level trough
will cross western WA this morning with isolated shower activity
expected (mainly in the Cascades). Otherwise, dry weather this
afternoon with temperatures in the 50s.
Tonight, a deep low will shift east into northern B.C. with
increasing southerly winds across western WA. Highest winds
will be along the coast and in the north interior (north of
Everett) - Wind Advisories are in effect. Expect gusts to 40-50
MPH overnight with gusty winds easing late Friday afternoon.
Most of the rain will be over the Olympic Peninsula and near the
Canadian border tonight through Friday. The Seattle metro will
see rain late Friday afternoon or evening and continuing Friday
night as the cold front shifts SE through the area.
Another deep low will track towards B.C. on Saturday but we will
start the day dry as we sit in the warm sector. Highs on
Saturday will be warmer and in the 60s. But as the low shifts
closer, we will see another round of windy weather across much
of western WA. The peak windy period will be Saturday evening
through early Sunday morning. Per NBM guidance, there`s a 50
percent chance of seeing gusts 50 MPH or greater along the coast
and north interior during this period. 33
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...Active weather
continues through next week as the parade of storms impact the
Pac NW. There`s little break in the action and each storm
brings the potential for gusty winds, additional lowland rain,
and high elevation snow. A larger swell train may reach the
coast Saturday night or Sunday with the potential for 20 ft seas
affecting the coast. 33
&&
.AVIATION...West to northwest flow aloft will continue across
Western Washington today with post-frontal shower activity
winding down. Ceilings will be a mixed bag of VFR and MVFR
ceilings this morning as well as a few pockets of IFR across
parts of the Southwest Interior and Kitsap Peninsula.
Improvement to VFR is expected for most areas toward 18Z as mid
and high level clouds associated with a warm front offshore
begin to thicken across the region. Ceilings will fall to MVFR
late tonight and early Friday across portions of the Olympic
Peninsula and North Interior as precipitation associated with
the warm front spreads onshore. Gusty east to southeasterly
surface winds will develop late tonight into Friday across
portions of the coast and North Interior.
KSEA...Periods of MVFR will continue into mid-morning with shower
activity diminishing. VFR conditions under varying amounts of high
and mid level clouds are expected from 18Z onward into this evening.
Surface winds southerly 8 to 11 knots easing this afternoon.
27
&&
.MARINE...An active period of weather across area waters is
expected into early next week as a series of frontal systems
cross the region. Winds will increase across the coastal waters,
strait entrances, and northern inland waters later tonight into
Friday as a warm front approaches the coastal waters and
stalls. This system will shift onshore and weaken Friday night
as an associated surface low makes landfall near the south end
of Haida Gwaii. A complex and much deeper area of low pressure
will lift northeastward offshore on Saturday night pushing a
vigorous frontal system into the area. If models maintain their
current trends, this system will likely generate gales across
all area waters along with coastal seas easily crossing the 20
foot threshold.
High pressure may briefly rebuild across the waters Sunday night
into early Monday before another front arrives with the renewed
potential for additional headlines.
27
&&
.HYDROLOGY...River flooding is not expected through the next
seven days. However, a series of increasingly wet weather
systems will bring rain (and high mountain snow) to the region,
especially from Friday onward. While current forecasts are not
expected to cause flooding, this will begin to saturate soils
and raise base flows that could bring a concern with subsequent
storms systems into next week.
&&
.SEW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WA...Wind Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM PST Friday for Island County-
Lowlands of Western Skagit and Northwestern Snohomish
Counties-Lowlands of Western Whatcom County-San Juan
County.
Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM PST Friday for Northern
Washington Coast.
Wind Advisory from 7 AM to 4 PM PST Friday for Grays Harbor
County Coast.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM PST
Saturday for Grays Harbor Bar.
Gale Warning from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 PM PST Friday for
West Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 2 PM PST Friday for
East Entrance U.S. Waters Strait Of Juan De Fuca.
Gale Warning from 2 AM to 2 PM PST Friday for Northern Inland
Waters Including The San Juan Islands.
Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM PST
Friday for Admiralty Inlet.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM PST this evening for Coastal
Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To 60 Nm-
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island Out 10
Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point Grenville 10
To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point Grenville
To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
Gale Warning from 10 PM this evening to 4 PM PST Friday for
Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island 10 To
60 Nm-Coastal Waters From Cape Flattery To James Island
Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To Point
Grenville 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters From James Island To
Point Grenville Out 10 Nm-Coastal Waters From Point
Grenville To Cape Shoalwater 10 To 60 Nm-Coastal Waters
From Point Grenville To Cape Shoalwater Out 10 Nm.
&&
$$
NWS SEW Office Area Forecast Discussion